Zoning Evaluation of Hourly Precipitation in High-resolution Regional Numerical Models over Hainan Island

This study assesses the performance of three high-resolution regional numerical models in predicting hourly rainfall over Hainan Island from April to October for the years from 2020 to 2022.The rainfall amount,frequency,intensity,duration,and diurnal cycle are examined through zoning evaluation.The results show that the China Meteor-ological Administration Guangdong Rapid Update Assimilation Numerical Forecast System(CMA-GD)tends to forecast a higher occurrence of light precipitation.It underestimates the late afternoon precipitation and the occurrence of short-duration events.The China Meteorological Administration Shanghai Numerical Forecast Model System(CMA-SH9)reproduces excessive precipitation at a higher frequency and intensity throughout the island.It overestimates rainfall during the late afternoon and midnight periods.The simulated most frequent peak times of rainfall in CMA-SH9 are 0-1 hour deviations from the observed data.The China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Weather Numerical Forecasting System(CMA-MESO)displays a similar pattern to rainfall observations but fails to replicate reasonable structure and diurnal variation of frequency-intensity.It underestimates the occurrence of long-duration events and overestimates related rainfall amounts from midnight to early morning.Notably,significant discrepancies are observed in the predictions of the three models for areas with complex terrain,such as the central,southeastern,and southwestern regions of Hainan Island.

Enrichment factors of movable hydrocarbons in lacustrine shale oil and exploration potential of shale oil in Gulong Sag,Songliao Basin,NE China

The geological characteristics and production practices of the major middle-and high-maturity shale oil exploration areas in China are analyzed.Combined with laboratory results,it is clear that three essential conditions,i.e.economic initial production,commercial cumulative oil production of single well,and large-scale recoverable reserves confirmed by the testing production,determine whether the continental shale oil can be put into large-scale commercial development.The quantity and quality of movable hydrocarbons are confirmed to be crucial to economic development of shale oil,and focuses in evaluation of shale oil enrichment area/interval.The evaluation indexes of movable hydrocarbon enrichment include:(1)the material basis for forming retained hydrocarbon,including TOC>2%(preferentially 3%-4%),and typeⅠ-Ⅱkerogens;(2)the mobility of retained hydrocarbon,which is closely related to the hydrocarbon composition and flow behaviors of light/heavy components,and can be evaluated from the perspectives of thermal maturity(Ro),gas-oil ratio(GOR),crude oil density,quality of hydrocarbon components,preservation conditions;and(3)the reservoir characteristics associated with the engineering reconstruction,including the main pore throat distribution zone,reservoir physical properties(including fractures),lamellation feature and diagenetic stage,etc.Accordingly,13 evaluation indexes in three categories and their reference values are established.The evaluation indicates that the light shale oil zones in the Gulong Sag of Songliao Basin have the most favorable enrichment conditions of movable hydrocarbons,followed by light oil and black oil zones,containing 20.8×10^(8) t light oil resources in reservoirs with R_(0)>1.2%,pressure coefficient greater than 1.4,effective porosity greater than 6%,crude oil density less than 0.82 g/cm^(3),and GOR>100 m/m^(3).The shale oil in the Gulong Sag can be explored and developed separately by the categories(resource sweet spot,engineering sweet spot,and tight oil sweet spot)depending on shale oil flowability.The Gulong Sag is the most promising area to achieve large-scale breakthrough and production of continental shale oil in China.