Nonlinear Differential Equation of Macroeconomic Dynamics for Long-Term Forecasting of Economic Development

In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investment. A scheme is proposed for obtaining approximate solutions of nonlinear differential equation by splitting solution into the rapidly oscillating business cycles and slowly varying trend using Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolsky averaging. Simplest modes of the economic system are described. Characteristics of the bifurcation point are found and bifurcation phenomenon is interpreted as loss of stability making the economic system available to structural change and accepting innovations. System being in a nonequilibrium state has a dynamics with self-sustained undamped oscillations. The model is verified with economic development of the US during the fifth Kondratieff cycle (1982-2010). Model adequately describes real process of economic growth in both quantitative and qualitative aspects. It is one of major results that the model gives a rough estimation of critical points of system stability loss and falling into a crisis recession. The model is used to forecast the macroeconomic dynamics of the US during the sixth Kondratieff cycle (2018-2050). For this forecast we use fixed production capital functional dependence on a long-term Kondratieff cycle and medium-term Juglar and Kuznets cycles. More accurate estimations of the time of crisis and recession are based on the model of accelerating log-periodic oscillations. The explosive growth of the prices of highly liquid commodities such as gold and oil is taken as real predictors of the global financial crisis. The second wave of crisis is expected to come in June 2011.

Socio-Economic Inequality and Economic Growth: Measurements for Central and Eastern Europe

The objective of this work is the study of social and economic inequality in the space of Central and Eastern Europe and its impact on economic growth. Our study includes a three-stage methodology:(1) application of a clustering method based on neural network (Self Organising Maps), to the series of panel data in order to divide countries into clusters, corresponding to the degree of economic and social inequality;(2) computing a composed index of economic and social inequality, using Principal Component Analysis and an extension of the method provided by OECD for computing composite indicators;(3) constructing an econometric model to establish the impact of social and economic inequality on economic growth and a VAR model to determine the causality between main determinants to growth and inequality as well as the response to shocks to the dynamics of the variables. The 24 Eastern and Central European countries have been grouped in five clusters, according to 11 attributes. In the results obtained, the third cluster comprises countries with the most equitable income distribution: Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Slovak Republic, Slovenia. To the opposite side is the fifth cluster with the deepest inequality, including only one country, namely Georgia. The second and third steps of our methodology, were applied only for the extreme clusters namely, the clusters with the highest (C5) and lowest (C3) inequality respectively.

Spatial Monetary Economic Growth with Housing and Residential Distribution over the Urban Area

This study introduces space, transportation, and money into an economic growth model. Growth theory neglects the importance of transportation on economic growth and transportation economics fails to properly explain how changes in transportation conditions (such as technological improvement, infrastructure investment, and oil prices) affect long-term economic growth. By proposing a growth model with transportations, we try to explain effects of transportation on economic growth. Our model describes dynamic interactions among capital accumulation, travel time, housing, residential distribution, amenity, and endogenous time distribution among work, travel, and leisure. The study examines effects of inflation policy, transportation conditions, and other conditions on long-term economic growth and economic geography. The paper demonstrates a way to integrating some important models in the literature in economic growth theory, urban economics, and transportation research so that the significance of transportation systems upon economies can be properly analyzed.

Measuring Quality of Economic Growth Incorporating Environment and Social Welfare:a Total Productivity Approach with an Application on China

By extending the traditional productivity theory,a new concept total productivity( TP) is introduced. Using a directional distance function approach,the concept is applied to measuring economic growth of 8 economic regions of China covering an 18 years period( 1997—2014) and test its convergence. Results showed that TP grew at an average rate of 6. 6% per year led mainly by technical change( 6. 5%). When environmental undesirable outputs are included,the Middle Yellow River,Northwest and Southwest regions of China witnessed higher productivity changes. Results of the convergence analysis revealed that China had made progress in reducing regional imbalance in growth. Inclusion of undesirable output showed that the energy-saving emission reduction policies had speed up the convergence rate of TP and environment oriented productivity. However,China's welfare oriented productivity is still very low.

Financial Efficiency and Economic Growth in Thailand

This paper investigates the relationship between financial efficiency and economic growth in Thailand with annual time series during 1991-2015. Financial efficiency measures:(i) bank efficiency in intermediating savings to investment, as measured by the net interest margin (the accounting value of bank’s net interest revenue as a share of its average interest-bearing assets)(IMARGIN) and lending-deposit spread (ISPREAD);and (ii) operational efficiency measures, such as overhead costs to total assets;NONILIA while the percentage change of real GDP per capita (real gross domestic product [RGDP]) represents economic growth. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test (ADF) of the stationary test shows that all data are stationary at the first difference except ISPREAD is stationary at the second difference. Since all variables are not integrated at the same order, there are no short run and long run relationship between financial efficiency variables and economic growth. The pairwise Granger causality result with 1 lagged length selected by Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), shows that no causality between financial efficiency variables and economic growth and vice versa;and supports the “neutral hypothesis”. However, there is a one-way causality linkage between twofinancial efficiency indicators, lending and deposit interest rate spread, and the ratio of overhead costs to total assets. In other words, the banks’ profit from interest spread is used to improve bank efficiency, such as hiring more staff, increase number of branches, and automatic teller machines (ATMs) to improve bank services. Therefore, financial institutions should provide financial services to response customers’ needs as the commercialization and modernization of the economy.

Non-regular Employment of Women,Fertility Rate,and Economic Growth

This study analyzes the interaction between non-regular employment of women and economic growth patterns by an overlapping-generations model.Declining Birthrate White Paper-Cabinet Office(2013)shows the ideal number of children per household is 2.42 compared to the current number of 2.07,which is the lowest so far in Japan.The main reason households do not have the ideal number of children is“the costs burden of childcare and education”and the ratio amounts to 60.4%.In recent years in Japan,households in which both the husband and the wife work are increasing,whereas those in which only the husband works are decreasing.Additionally,although women have same educational background and abilities as men,most women become non-regular employees after marriage and childbirth,which reduces household income.In such a situation,raising the rate of pension insurance will be a big burden for the household and the declining birthrate may be caused by high levels of educational expenditure and pension insurance.The Japanese government has discussed raising the wages of non-regular employees.This paper finds that a rise in the wage rate of non-regular employment is needed under the public pension policy that raises the rate of pension insurance,and it must be at an adequate level.That is,there is a high risk that this policy will have a negative effect on Japan’s economic growth if an adequate level is not achieved.

Environmental Pollution and Economic Growth in China: A Test of the Environmental Kuznets Curve

We apply a two pronged approach to analyze the presence of Environmental Kuznets Curve, EKC, in three types of emissions in the People’s Republic of China from 1994 to 2014: a structural breakpoint analysis and a model based test. We apply it to PM2.5, industrial waste and domestic water pollution time series, and find evidence of EKC in all three types of emissions that require appropriate policy.

Overcoming the contradiction between promoting economic growth and transforming the economic growth pattern

Promoting economic growth has become the first and foremost objective of macro-control since China experienced a drastic economic downturn in the fourth quarter of 2008. Now China is at a special stage of transition characterized by the transformation of the economic growth mode. While promoting economic growth, the government must effectively coordinate the relationship between economic growth and the transformation of growth mode. This is not a task that can be done easily. To promote economic growth, the central government has selected a number of industries and formulated an industrial revitalization plan for each of these them. Revitalizing these industries helps promote economic growth at the present stage but propelling these industries alone still cannot fully meet the requirements for transforming the economic growth pattern. To coordinate the relationship between promoting economic growth and transforming the economic growth pattern, it is currently imperative to adjust China’s industrial upgrading strategy and to pay attention to intra-industrial upgrading, particularly process upgrading.

中国耕地非农化对经济增长贡献的地区差异分析

现阶段中国耕地非农化对经济增长贡献存在地区差异,掌握差异的主要来源和变化趋势有利于耕地非农化指标的高效调配,促进地区经济增长的协调发展。利用1989～2001年我国东、中、西部建设用地占用耕地面积和国内生产总值的分省数据,测算了以建设用地占用耕地面积和GDP增量为对象的基尼系数、加权变异系数以及泰尔指数等指标,并对泰尔指数进行因素分解得到差异的主要来源和变化趋势。结果表明:三类地区内部省际差异是总体差异的主要来源,其中东部内部差异对总体差异贡献增大、中部减小、西部有先增大后减小趋势。鉴于此,从促进资源的高效利用和保护地区间公平发展环境的角度出发,耕地非农化指标调控的重点在于三类地区各自内部省份之间的调剂。

The Impact of Chinese Trade and Investment on West African Economic Growth: A Spatial Econometrics Approach

This paper has studied the West African region or Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) which includes fifteen countries and its relationship with China. Three countries (Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria) of the fifteen countries which are economically representative in the west African region to represent the overall-region were studied. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the spatial effect of Chinese trade and investment on the economic growth of West Africa. The study focuses on the period from 1960-2014 using the dynamic panel data approach and spatial autoregressive approach for the econometric analysis of this topic. Empirically, the results show that trade openness with China has a positive impact on the neighboring countries of the region, especially for those who share the same border. Chinese investment is vital to the region’s economic growth as the results show that one dollar investment increase from China to the host country increases the economic growth in the neighboring countries by 0.328%.

Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from economic growth in Cameroon

Knowledge of decoupling indicators and its determinants is useful for formulating targeted policy recommendations. To this end, the Log-Mean Divisia Index and Tapio models were applied in this paper to study the decoupling relationship among economic growth and GHG emissions in Cameroon over the period 1971-2014. The analyzes were conducted according to the three major periods that marked Cameroon after independence and the decoupling indicators were broken down into seven factors while considering the three main GHGs emitted in this country (i.e. CO2, CH4, and N2O). The results showed that weak decoupling, strong decoupling, and strong negative decoupling occurred in Cameroon during the periods 1971-1984 and 1994-2014 which represent the periods before and after the economic crisis, respectively. In addition to these three decoupling statuses, recessive decoupling only appeared during the economic crisis period (1984-1994). From 1971 to 1984 and between 1994 and 2014, carbon intensity, economic activity, population, and emission factor not only contributed to the increase of Cameroon’s GHG (particularly CO2) emissions but also prevented decoupling. Unlike the period 1984-1994, energy intensity contributed to reducing environmental pollution while promoting decoupling during the periods 1971-1984 and 1994-2014. Although all played an important role in decoupling, we found that after the introduction of natural gas into the country’s energy mix from 2007, the effect of renewable energies on the mitigation of Cameroon’s CO2 emissions remained higher than the substitution of fossil fuels. However, to develop a cleaner economy, Cameroon should maintain modest economic growth and continuously transform economic development pathways, while encouraging the use of renewable energy to further reduce energy intensity per unit of GDP per capita.

Analyzing economic feasibility for investing in nursing care: Evidence from panel data analysis in 35 OECD countries

Objective:To analyze economic feasibility for investing in nursing care.Method:The number of practicing nurses'density per 1000 population as a proxy for nursing staff and Gross Domestic Product(GDP)per capita(current US$)were collected in 35 member countries of Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD)over 2000-2016 period.The statistical technique of panel data analysis including unit root test,cointegration analysis,Granger causality test,dynamic long-run model analysis and error correction model were applied to measure economic impact of nursing-related services.Results:There was a committed bilateral relationship between nurse-staffing level and GDP with longrun magnitudes of 1.39 and 0A1 for GDP-lead-nurse and nurse-lead-GDP directions in OECD countries,respectively.Moreover,the highest long-run magnitudes of the effect nursing staff has on increasing GDP per capita were calculated in Finland(2.07),Sweden(1.92),Estonia(1.68),Poland(1.52),Czech Republic(1.48),Norway(1.47)and Canada(1.24).Conclusion:Our findings verify that although the dependency of nursing characteristics to GDP per capita is higher than the reliance of GDP to number of nurses'density per 1000 population,investing in nursing care is economically feasible in OECD countries i.e.nursing is not only a financial burden(or cost)on health care systems,but also an economic stimulus in OECD countries.Hence,we alert governments and policy makers about the risk of underestimating the economic impacts of nurses on economic systems of OECD countries.

COMPLEX ECOLOGIC－ECONOMIC SYSTEM OF AFFORESTATION－AN EXAMPLE OF SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE

The paper deals with a transformation model of a backward distric into a prosperous one. The district is geographically located in Lixiahe region, Jiangsu Province. The region had long ben known as one of the poorest area in China, and had been alternatively attacked by flood, waterlogging, drought, salinzation, and plague of insect. Since the seventies of this centruy efforts to open up trenches on lowland and to level up the shoaly land have been made. A kind of tree, which is tolerable to high watertable, was used to afforest the land. Cereal crop, vegetable and beaus are grown. In some cases, the shoaly land is used for sheep grazing and fishery. A favorable combination of forestry, agriculture, animal husbandry and fishery has been set up in the region. There are five type of managements in the system: 1) forestry-agriculture comPlex management. 2) forestry-fishery complex management, 3) forestry-aquatic plan-fishery complex management, 4) forestry-animal husbandry complex management, and 5) forestry-edible mushroom complex management. The principles and ecological benefits of this system can be identitied: 1) Increase soil fertility by piling mud from marsh land on top soil, and thicken the arable layer. 2) Enhance the utilization rate of sunlight and energy, due to the change of microclimate in field. 3) As a result of multiple layer cultivation and multi-cropping, the production has been greatly increased. 4) Accelerate the cycling of matter and conversion of energy and nutrient of the system. 5) Decrease the consUmption of soil fertility and increase the capability of controlling insect pests. 6) Improve ecological environment by afforestationl. 7) Raise income and provide jobs for local peasants, even some ones from other part of this province.

The Analysis on the Influence of Water Conservancy Investment on Agricultural Economic Growth: An Empirical Study Based on the Boom Period of Shandong Agriculture

This paper uses econometric methods to carry out a Granger causality test on the construction of water conservancy infrastructure construction and agricultural economic growth in the boom period(1981- 2002) of Shandong agriculture. Empirical results indicate that there exists two-way Granger causality between Shandong water conservancy infrastructure construction and Shandong agricultural economic growth.Therefore,water conservancy infrastructure construction has a significant influence on agricultural economic growth in Shandong.

THE TURNPIKE IN DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC ECONOMIC GROWTH MODELS FOR STATE－CONTINGENT CAPITAL STOCKS

A stochastic economic growth model may be transformed into a deterministic economic growth model with an infiaite dimentional Banach space of state-contingent capital stocks [6]. This paper proves that under the framework, the stochastic analogUes of the asymptotic turnpike theorems in the standard deterministic economic growth model [5] will continue tO hold if we assume that essentially smooth programs satisfy uniformly essentially dominant diagonal condition.

Dynamic Nexus between Air-Transportation and Economic Growth: A Systematic Literature Review

Today’s economic growth is not promising without air transport, up-to-date airports infrastructure, efficient and safe airline services and international air transport networks. According to WB [1], 40% of the world-wide tourists travel by air transport. The main aim of this study is to analyze the literatures of air transport and economic growth study. A systematic literature review (SLR) method was used in order to examine related articles from ABDC list journals which are ranked on A*, A or B, published in period 1992-2018. This study gives a summary of the trends and research themes which have been identified. Key scholars, as well as their approaches and locations and citations are also mapped. The findings of this study show that there is a growing interest in researching and publishing on Air transportation and economic growth. This study fills a deficiency in specialized literature concerning air transportation in developing countries and provides a foundation for future research in the field of air transportation.

Economic Growth is not at Odds with Environmental Efforts

This paper gives an analysis on the reasons for China's rapid economic growth, highlighting its momentum and challenges. It includes the study and forecast on the growth rate during the "11th Five-year Plan" period and the achievability of energy conservation and greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, putting forward four policy recommendations in response to the new developments in the economy since 2006.

Influencing factors of forestry economic growth in Guangdong province

Based on the data of Guangdong Rural Statistical Yearbooks(2011-2018)and Guangdong statistical yearbook(2011-2018),the grey correlation analysis method was used to analyze the factors influencing the growth of forestry economy in Guangdong province.The results show that the correlation of GDP and forestry economic growth,the correlation of afforestation area and forestry economic growth,the correlation of sunshine hours and forestry economic growth,the correlation of population density and forestry economic growth,the correlation of forest coverage rate and forestry economic growth,the correlation of annual average temperature and forestry economic growth,the correlation of average annual rainfall and forestry economic growth,the correlation of the number of forestry workers and the growth of forestry economy,the correlation of total forestry investment and forestry economic growth,are gradually decreased.

The Impacts of Lower Population Growth on the Quality of Life and Economic Development：China＇s Experience

China is the most populous country in the world.The total Population on the mainland of China has in-creased from 540 million in 1949 to 1.18 billion by the end of 1993.China adopted a population policy by namc of"controlling population growth and im-proving the quality of the human resources',which has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the Chinese pcoplc.The overw helming majority of the Chinese people have recognized the necessity for implementing the family planning programme not only for the sustained devel-opment of the country,but also for the benefits of their own familie cs.

Economic Growth, CH₄and N₂O Emissions in Sudan: Where Should the Policy Focus Be?

This study aimed to investigate the effect of economic growth, agricultural growth and energy use on methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in Sudan. Within the context of the EKC, the study applies the OLS, cointegration, vector error correction modelling (VECM) and Granger causality methods. The study has established a long run equilibrium relationship for both CH4 and N2O in their relation to economic growth, agricultural growth and energy use in presence of trade openness (TOP) and inflows of foreign direct investments (FDI). The estimated VECM shows that emissions of CH4 are significantly affected by economic growth, TOP, and FDI with no effect of agricultural growth in the short run while CH4 is found to be significantly affected by economic growth, agricultural growth, TOP and FDI in the long run. The estimated VECM for N2O shows that N2O emissions are more significantly affected by energy use, agricultural growth and FDI with no effect of economic growth in the short run, while N2O is found to be significantly affected by economic growth, agricultural growth, TOP and FDI in the long run. Consistently, findings from the estimated OLS and VECMs show that the EKC does not hold for either CH4, or N2O emissions, and that N2O emissions are more significantly affected by economic growth, agricultural growth and energy use than emissions of CH4. Findings from impulse response and variance decomposition analysis confirm that emissions of N2O are more responsive to economic growth, agricultural growth and energy use than emissions of CH4. Granger causality analysis shows existence of bidirectional relationship between CH4 and agricultural growth, but a unidirectional relationship from CH4 to FDI. For N2O, the study finds a unidirectional relationship running from agricultural growth to N2O, while N2O emissions are found to cause GDP per capita, the squared GDP per capita, OIL consumption and FDI. In terms of causality, these results suggest that emissions of CH4 and N2O have been generated more by agricultural activities than by overall economic activity, and that activities generating N2O emissions in particular have been contributing significantly to economic growth. Within the context of the country’s intended nationally determined contributions, the findings of this study suggest that policies should be directed cautiously but more effectively to control N2O than CH4 emissions. Economic growth could be pursued without significant environmental harm from both CH4 and N2O emissions. However, Sudan should expand adoption of energy efficiency measures, expansion of renewable energy use, place restrictions on production and use of fuel woods and charcoal for low carbon economy and green growth.