Empirical Analysis of Commercial Housing Sales Based on EARCH(1,1) Model

Since the 1980s, China’s commercial housing market has shown an unprecedented rapid development, and the commercial houses still has a high price. This paper studies the sales rate of commercial housing sales to find an appropriate model, and it analyzes the volatility of the commercial housing market to describe the sustainable development of the commercial housing market. By selecting month data of China’s commercial housing sales from January 2006 to October 2018, this paper uses EViews7.2 and the ARMA Model as the tool in order to establish EARCH(1,1) through the method of quantitative analysis. It is found that the yield of commercial housing sales has obvious cluster, asymmetry and leverage effect, and the impact of adverse news on the commercial housing market is more significant than the impact of favorable news.

The Impact of Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Factors on Non-performing Loans in Sri Lankan Commercial Banks

The main purpose of this study is to ascertain the effect of bank-specific and macroeconomic factors on non-performing loans in systemically and non-systemically important commercial banks in Sri Lanka over 10 year’s period from 2004 to 2013.Also,the study examines the impact of civil war that prevailed in the country for 30 years on the ex-post credit risk of the banking sector.The study employed panel data methodology to investigate the effect of bank-specific and macroeconomic factors on non-performing loans.Panel unit root test has been undertaken in order to test the stationary of the variables.Hausman test and Wald coefficient restriction test were used to select the appropriate model out of pooled,random,and fixed effect.A dummy variable panel regression model adopted to study the war effect,considering 2009 as the structural year.Findings revealed that return on assets as a proxy for bank efficiency has a significant negative influence,while non-interest income as a proxy for income diversity is positively correlated with non-performing loans of systemically important banks.Both real gross domestic products and lending rates were highly significant in both bank types.On contrary with literature,growth in bank branches is negatively correlated.Public banks do not account for higher level of non-performing loans compared to their private counterpart.Finally,it was identified that civil war had an effect on the level of non-performing loans in commercial banks.The research would have benefited if the analysis is carried out among classified types of loans offered by commercial banks.Future researchers should involve in identifying the most significant contributing loan type to the non-performing loans and its determinants.This study is one of the few studies which have investigated the causes of non-performing loans in the commercial banking industry in Sri Lanka.The analysis of civil war and its impact on non-performing loans is the first study of that nature to be conducted in the context.

个人住房抵押贷款借款人产品选择行为

1998年至今,中国个人住房抵押贷款市场迅速成长,并呈现出持续增长趋势。从完善个贷服务、降低金融风险的角度出发,深入研究借款人个贷产品选择行为具有现实意义。本文以2001年北京个贷市场实际交易数据为基础,采用二元Logit选择模型,定量分析经济因素、借款人个体属性和个贷产品属性对借款人个贷期限和贷款价值比选择行为的影响。实证研究发现,借款人性别对其个贷产品选择的影响并不显著;高收入借款人相对于中低收入借款人更倾向高比例中短期贷款;购置高价住宅的借款人相对于购置中低价格住宅的借款人更倾向选择中低比例长期贷款;未婚借款人更倾向高比例贷款;年轻借款人和高等教育程度借款人更倾向长期贷款。此外,本文结合对特定人群房价收入比的分析,探讨造成借款人选择行为差异的可能原因。本文基本结论为,借款人个贷期限和贷款价值比选择行为相对合理,不存在绝对高风险人群。

商业银行贷款定价策略和模型设计

建立完善贷款定价体系对商业银行适应利率市场化、增强抵御利率风险具有重大意义。本文从贷款定价理论及其对商业银行重要意义入手,分析我国商业银行贷款定价的现状和难点。作者参照西方发达国家商业银行贷款定价模式,提出了我国商业银行建立完善贷款定价体系的策略和测算模型,即要综合考虑客户的信用风险、综合收益、筹资成本和营运成本以及货币信贷市场变化等因素,从而建立以成本精算、风险量化为基础的价格领导定价测算模型,最后依据客户综合贡献度、计结息周期和利率浮动周期进行修正,最终建立起以市场为导向,以弥补成本为前提,以客户盈利能力为参数的贷款定价机制。

Analysis of Risks in the Individual Housing Mortgage Loan with Game Theory

Through using game theory,a game model of lendingand borrowing money between banks and individuals isestablished to explain how the risks come into being and are transferred in the dynamic point of view.Some sug-gestions about how to avoid the risks are proposed.

中国渐进转轨中银行不良贷款与经济增长研究

本文分析了渐进转轨中我国经济增长无法回避和跨越的问题——银行的不良贷款及其对经济增长的制约,并把不良贷款分为政策性不良贷款和经营性不良贷款,分别讨论他们对经济增长的影响。在此基础上,就如何防范化解不良贷款风险,支持可持续经济增长,分别从政府、银行、监管当局方面提出消除软预算约束,改变经济增长方式;推进银行综合改革,实现信贷行为优化,防范不良贷款风险;以《新巴塞尔资本协议》为基准,实行审慎贷款风险监管等政策建议。

ANALYSIS ON THE PRESENT SITUATION AND CONTRIBUTING FACTORS OF VACANT COMMERCIAL HOUSING IN GUANGZHOU URBAN DISTRICT

According to the on-the-spot sampling investigation, this paper an alyzes the conditions of different districts, different locales and different ty pes of the vacant commercial housing as well as the contributing factors, which was completed in recent three years in Guangzhou urban district. It is found tha t vacant ratio of samples in Guangzhou accounted for 20.94%, which is relativel y high. The authors argue that real estate industry of Guangzhou has made rapid progress, at the same time, people should not overlook the vacant commercial hou sing. It will benefit the sustainable development of the real estate industry of Guangzhou to carry out effective measures and actively to make use of present v acant housing.

商业银行数字化能否改善企业投融资期限错配?

本文基于中国246家商业银行及A股上市公司2013—2022年数据,探究了商业银行数字化能否改善贷款企业投融资期限错配。研究发现,商业银行数字化通过调节错配企业短期贷款金额、提高公司治理水平,进而缓解企业投融资期限错配。该效应在资本市场融资能力较强企业、高融资约束企业、中小规模企业及制造业企业中更为明显。文章结论在经过内生性处理和稳健性检验后依旧成立。进一步分析表明,商业银行战略、管理及业务的数字化均可对企业投融资期限错配产生影响,但前两个维度的影响更为明显。探究商业银行数字化的微观错配纠偏功能,不仅有利于降低企业层面投融资期限错配引发的风险,也为进一步优化银企互动和挖掘商业银行数字化意义提供了新的证据。

住房反向抵押模式的主体多元化与政府的作用

老年人住房反向抵押养老保险作为一项新型的养老保险兼具保险和抵押贷款的双重属性,保险公司在保险法律关系中具有保险人、贷款人及抵押权人三重主体身份。这种保险与抵押、借贷法律关系的主体合一导致风险叠加,需重新选择住房反向抵押这一自助养老的主体模式,将基础法律关系由保险合同转化为抵押、借款合同,从而化解住房反向抵押中借贷双方的风险。将仅限双方主体参与的住房反向抵押保险模式改为多元主体参与的住房反向抵押“贷款+保险”模式,由商业银行作为住房反向抵押的贷款主体;保险公司负责为借贷双方承保;政府在监督与政策制定方面发挥规范引导作用,采取金融监管及税费优惠予以支持和保障。

企业委托贷款制度的理论反思及其功能化构造

企业委托贷款制度是企业融资创新与金融监管政策结合的产物,商业银行在委托贷款制度中的角色定位既有监管属性又有代理人特征。商业银行在金融法与民商法中的二元定位为委托贷款法律关系的厘清造成了混乱,不仅未能发挥更好的监督能效,而且引发了不容小觑的金融风险。因此,规制委托贷款需要从民商法与金融法结合视角,通过厘清委托贷款中以商业银行为核心的内外部法律关系,合理安排委托贷款法律关系各方权利格局,实现商业银行民事责任的归位与强化,以维护主体间利益平衡。推动委托贷款立法与司法规制系统适配,行政监管与金融司法协调互补,以促进委托贷款理论革新与制度优化,实现防范化解重大金融风险的制度目标。

商品房消费者执行异议的规则适用——基于最高人民法院裁判分歧的分析与展开

我国实定法优先保护商品房消费者的权利,但基于生存权的考量,这一规则不会导致实践中相冲突利益间的严重失衡。为稳定交易预期,这一规则的适用应予严格把握:首先,只要具备商品房买卖合同必要条款的书面合同均可被认定为“买卖合同”;其次,商住两用房、车位等不动产只要满足当事人及其配偶、未成年子女或其监护人的居住需要,则在保护范围之内;再次,买受人尚须证明已实际支付不动产买卖价金。另外,为提供高效完整的权利保护体系,商品房消费者在排除申请人对不动产的执行后,可以选择继续履行合同,亦可选择参与拍卖不动产的价金分配,如商品房消费者不能继续履行合同,债权人可再次提起诉讼,以争议标的实现债权。

中小商业银行数字化转型对风险承担的影响研究——基于资本约束视角

在数字技术快速发展的背景下,中小商业银行的风险承担再次成为焦点。以2010—2021年186家中小商业银行作为研究样本,实证分析中小商业银行数字化转型对风险承担的影响及其作用机制。结果表明:中小商业银行数字化转型对降低风险承担有显著影响;中小商业银行数字化转型通过提高经营效率和优化贷款结构,进而降低风险承担;资本约束对数字化转型降低风险承担的影响有显著正向调节作用。经过一系列稳健性测试,研究结果仍然成立。

Analysis on Affordable Housing Financial Mechanism in USA

Affordable housing development consists of many stages and financing is one stage which plays a critical role.Providing housing developers easy access to high- quality and low-cost capital is an effective way to encourage them to develop more affordable houses.This paper mainly focuses on affordable housing finance mechanism in USA.The first section is an overview of affordable housing in terms of definition,functions and current regulations for affordable housing.In the second section,there is an introduction of the whole affordable housing financing market.Most of the available financing resources are discussed in this part.Mainstream fund resources are discussed in the third section.The purpose of this paper is to provide housing developers an overview about affordable housing financing market and introduce several mainstream ones in detail.As well,this paper will provide an analysis for Chinese affordable housing developers about what they can learn from the USA and what potential opportunities are in China.

银行金融科技对贷款损失准备计提顺周期的影响:推波助澜还是解危济困

商业银行贷款损失准备计提的顺周期行为会加剧金融市场的震荡,因此,如何缓释其顺周期性始终是金融监管的一大焦点。本文基于我国233家商业银行2010—2021年间数据,探究了银行金融科技对其贷款损失准备计提顺周期的影响。实证研究发现,商业银行的金融科技应用能够显著缓解贷款损失准备计提的顺周期性。这一结论在一系列内生性以及稳健性检验后,依然保持稳健。机制分析发现,金融科技通过显著增强银行贷款损失准备计提的前瞻性,缓解了贷款损失准备计提的顺周期行为,凸显了金融科技对商业银行的赋能效果。从宏微观层面进行的异质性分析发现,在规模较小、外部监管水平较低的商业银行中,以及在宏观经济信心相对不足时期,顺周期问题更为严重;而金融科技对商业银行顺周期行为的缓解作用则在规模较小、外部监管水平较低和报表粉饰程度较弱的银行中更为显著。分解检验发现,金融科技中,“科技管理”对缓释银行贷款损失准备计提顺周期性的作用最大。

正规金融与农村家庭生计脆弱性——基于房贷差异视角下的实证研究

促进农村家庭生计可持续是乡村振兴战略的重中之重。基于CFPS两期整合数据考察正规借贷对农村家庭生计脆弱性的影响。统计结果表明,农村家庭的生计脆弱性指数集中在-0.459~0.225之间,整体脆弱性水平较低。相较于非正规借贷家庭,正规借贷家庭的生计脆弱性水平更低。房屋正规借贷高额度家庭的生计脆弱性水平较高,而非房屋正规借贷高额度家庭的生计脆弱性水平较低,这两类农村家庭的低额度正规借贷组中有很大部分家庭的生计可持续能力很高。回归结果表明,正规借贷额度每提高1个单位,农村家庭的生计脆弱性指数降低12.1个百分点。相较于房屋正规借贷额度,非房屋正规借贷额度的提高对农村家庭生计脆弱性的降低效果更好。进一步研究发现,房屋正规借贷和非房屋正规借贷额度的提高均可通过促进农村家庭生计策略非农化的转型进而降低其生计脆弱性,但房屋正规借贷在该机制中所起的积极作用更大。据此提出引导农户合理使用正规借贷资金,开发“房贷+”金融产品,细化农村金融帮扶策略的对策建议。

数字普惠金融与房价β收敛:作用机制及影响效果

采用2011—2020年中国286个地级市的面板数据,就数字普惠金融对房价β收敛的作用机制与影响效果进行了实证研究。结果发现:以286个地级市为样本的中国城市房价不存在β绝对收敛但存在稳定的β条件收敛,平均收敛速度为0.300%。基准回归和稳健性检验表明数字普惠金融的发展能显著地提高房价的收敛速度,具体而言数字普惠金融总指数每提高1%,房价的条件收敛速度会加快0.040%。与此同时,机制检验和异质性检验发现数字普惠金融对房价收敛的影响还具有显著的内部差异、区域差异和时段差异。

房地产信贷与住房可支付性

本文使用2010—2022年中国135个城市房地产信贷、房价、房租以及家庭收入与消费数据,考察房地产信贷对住房可支付性影响。实证研究发现,城市房地产开发贷款占比越高,城市房价收入比越低;城市住房抵押贷款占比越高,城市房价收入比与房租收入比越高;房地产信贷对房价可支付性的影响大于房租可支付性;房地产开发贷款提高城市中等收入者住房可支付性,但住房抵押贷款降低城市中等收入者住房可支付性。因此,住房信贷政策应主要解决城市中等收入者房价可支付问题而非房租可支付问题。

商品房买卖消费者物权期待权适用困境与纾解

为解决商品房买卖中消费者生存利益与房地产企业其他债权人财产利益保护失衡问题,最高人民法院将物权期待权理论融入司法解释。然而该理论不仅有悖于民法典规定的物权变动规则,而且受制于物权公示制度。囿于主体认定标准、生存权界定标准、后续保护措施欠缺等,该理论在司法实践中并没有形成统一的适用逻辑。对此应当对《执行异议复议规定》第二十九条规定的构成要件予以实质化解释,以此完善“用于居住”“名下无其他用于居住住房”和“支付价款比例”的判定标准,并对消费者科以合理审查义务,同时法律还应完善排除强制执行后的所有权确权与登记程序。

试论房贷利率上调对购房者的影响及应对措施

继2004年央行加息后,2005年又单独对房地产行业的利率上调,给购房者带来了一些始料未及的影响,对消费者的心理影响将大于它的涨幅影响,促使提前还贷的人数会再次提高。

商业信用、融资渗漏与小微经营者信心

构建引入赊销因素的企业现金管理模型,利用中国小微企业调查(CMES)数据,研究商业信用供给对小微经营者信心的影响。实证研究发现,小微企业供给的商业信用越多、期限越长,小微经营者信心越弱。机制方面,商业信用供给产生了融资渗漏效应,导致小微企业的银行信贷、政策性资源、民间融资和经营利润向客户渗漏,进而降低小微经营者的信心;其中,银行信贷渗漏造成正规融资渠道供需两侧的双重挤压效应;政策性资源渗漏中,相对于减免型政策,增补型政策的渗漏效应更加显著。更进一步,商业信用供给对经营者信心的负向影响在客户议价能力较强、创新活动更多以及关系投资更密集的小微企业中更显著,而较好的地区营商环境和较高的金融发展水平能够显著缓解信心减损效应。基于此,建议加强商业信用监管,保障小微企业应收款项高效回收,以提振小微经营者信心。