Stability Analysis for a Discrete SIR Epidemic Model with Delay and General Nonlinear Incidence Function

In this paper, we construct a backward difference scheme for a class of SIR epidemic model with general incidence f . The step sizeτ used in our discretization is one. The dynamical properties are investigated (positivity and the boundedness of solution). By constructing the Lyapunov function, the general incidence function f must satisfy certain assumptions, under which, we establish the global stability of endemic equilibrium when R0 >1. The global stability of diseases-free equilibrium is also established when R0 ≤1. In addition we present numerical results of the continuous and discrete model of the different class according to the value of basic reproduction number R0.

Nonlinear wave dispersion in monoatomic chains with lumped and distributed masses:discrete and continuum models

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the influence of inertia of nonlinear springs on the dispersion behavior of discrete monoatomic chains with lumped and distributed masses.The developed model can represent the wave propagation problem in a non-homogeneous material consisting of heavy inclusions embedded in a matrix.The inclusions are idealized by lumped masses,and the matrix between adjacent inclusions is modeled by a nonlinear spring with distributed masses.Additionally,the model is capable of depicting the wave propagation in bi-material bars,wherein the first material is represented by a rigid particle and the second one is represented by a nonlinear spring with distributed masses.The discrete model of the nonlinear monoatomic chain with lumped and distributed masses is first considered,and a closed-form expression of the dispersion relation is obtained by the second-order Lindstedt-Poincare method(LPM).Next,a continuum model for the nonlinear monoatomic chain is derived directly from its discrete lattice model by a suitable continualization technique.The subsequent use of the second-order method of multiple scales(MMS)facilitates the derivation of the corresponding nonlinear dispersion relation in a closed form.The novelties of the present study consist of(i)considering the inertia of nonlinear springs on the dispersion behavior of the discrete mass-spring chains;(ii)developing the second-order LPM for the wave propagation in the discrete chains;and(iii)deriving a continuum model for the nonlinear monoatomic chains with lumped and distributed masses.Finally,a parametric study is conducted to examine the effects of the design parameters and the distributed spring mass on the nonlinear dispersion relations and phase velocities obtained from both the discrete and continuum models.These parameters include the ratio of the spring mass to the lumped mass,the nonlinear stiffness coefficient of the spring,and the wave amplitude.

Discontinuity development patterns and the challenges for 3D discrete fracture network modeling on complicated exposed rock surfaces

Natural slopes usually display complicated exposed rock surfaces that are characterized by complex and substantial terrain undulation and ubiquitous undesirable phenomena such as vegetation cover and rockfalls.This study presents a systematic outcrop research of fracture pattern variations in a complicated rock slope,and the qualitative and quantitative study of the complex phenomena impact on threedimensional(3D)discrete fracture network(DFN)modeling.As the studies of the outcrop fracture pattern have been so far focused on local variations,thus,we put forward a statistical analysis of global variations.The entire outcrop is partitioned into several subzones,and the subzone-scale variability of fracture geometric properties is analyzed(including the orientation,the density,and the trace length).The results reveal significant variations in fracture characteristics(such as the concentrative degree,the average orientation,the density,and the trace length)among different subzones.Moreover,the density of fracture sets,which is approximately parallel to the slope surface,exhibits a notably higher value compared to other fracture sets across all subzones.To improve the accuracy of the DFN modeling,the effects of three common phenomena resulting from vegetation and rockfalls are qualitatively analyzed and the corresponding quantitative data processing solutions are proposed.Subsequently,the 3D fracture geometric parameters are determined for different areas of the high-steep rock slope in terms of the subzone dimensions.The results show significant variations in the same set of 3D fracture parameters across different regions with density differing by up to tenfold and mean trace length exhibiting differences of 3e4 times.The study results present precise geological structural information,improve modeling accuracy,and provide practical solutions for addressing complex outcrop issues.

Construction of a Computational Scheme for the Fuzzy HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model with a Nonlinear Saturated Incidence Rate

This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemicmodel discusses the more detailed versions of the interactions between infective and susceptible people.Thenext-generation matrix approach is employed to find the reproduction number of a deterministic model.Thesensitivity analysis and local stability analysis of the systemare also provided.For solving the fuzzy epidemic model,a numerical scheme is constructed which consists of three time levels.The numerical scheme has an advantage overthe existing forward Euler scheme for determining the conditions of getting the positive solution.The establishedscheme also has an advantage over existing non-standard finite difference methods in terms of order of accuracy.The stability of the scheme for the considered fuzzy model is also provided.From the plotted results,it can beobserved that susceptible people decay by rising interaction parameters.

Discrete Choice Models and Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Predicting the Determinants of Transport Mode Choice--A Systematic Review

Forecasting travel demand requires a grasp of individual decision-making behavior.However,transport mode choice(TMC)is determined by personal and contextual factors that vary from person to person.Numerous characteristics have a substantial impact on travel behavior(TB),which makes it important to take into account while studying transport options.Traditional statistical techniques frequently presume linear correlations,but real-world data rarely follows these presumptions,which may make it harder to grasp the complex interactions.Thorough systematic review was conducted to examine how machine learning(ML)approaches might successfully capture nonlinear correlations that conventional methods may ignore to overcome such challenges.An in-depth analysis of discrete choice models(DCM)and several ML algorithms,datasets,model validation strategies,and tuning techniques employed in previous research is carried out in the present study.Besides,the current review also summarizes DCM and ML models to predict TMC and recognize the determinants of TB in an urban area for different transport modes.The two primary goals of our study are to establish the present conceptual frameworks for the factors influencing the TMC for daily activities and to pinpoint methodological issues and limitations in previous research.With a total of 39 studies,our findings shed important light on the significance of considering factors that influence the TMC.The adjusted kernel algorithms and hyperparameter-optimized ML algorithms outperform the typical ML algorithms.RF(random forest),SVM(support vector machine),ANN(artificial neural network),and interpretable ML algorithms are the most widely used ML algorithms for the prediction of TMC where RF achieved an R2 of 0.95 and SVM achieved an accuracy of 93.18%;however,the adjusted kernel enhanced the accuracy of SVM 99.81%which shows that the interpretable algorithms outperformed the typical algorithms.The sensitivity analysis indicates that the most significant parameters influencing TMC are the age,total trip time,and the number of drivers.

A Combined Discrete Event—Agent Based Approach to Modeling Tensile Strength of One-Dimensional Fibrous Materials. Face Validation and Effect of the Basic Model Parameters

A combined method of discrete event and agent based modelling has been applied to the computer modelling and simulation of the tensile strength of one-dimensional fibrous materials (ODFM). This combined method is based on the concept of discrete event simulation as being applied to the modeling of the structure of the fiber flow and on the concept of agent based modelling for modelling and simulation of the fiber interaction within the structure of the fibrous material. Frictional and traction forces arise as the result of this fiber interaction. A model of the ODFM tensile strength, which is based on the slippage effect, is created and studied in this research. Only frictional and traction forces determine the tensile strength in this kind of the model. The article examines the validation problem of the slippage effect based tensile strength model and questions regarding the strength potential estimation through variation in the parameters of the model.

The Dynamic Properties of a Deterministic SIR Epidemic Model in Discrete-Time

In this paper, a class of discrete deterministic SIR epidemic model with vertical and horizontal transmission is studied. Based on the population assumed to be a constant size, we transform the discrete SIR epidemic model into a planar map. Then we find out its equilibrium points and eigenvalues. From discussing the influence of the coefficient parameters effected on the eigenvalues, we give the hyperbolicity of equilibrium points and determine which point is saddle, node or focus as well as their stability. Further, by deriving equations describing flows on the center manifolds, we discuss the transcritical bifurcation at the non-hyperbolic equilibrium point. Finally, we give some numerical simulation examples for illustrating the theoretical analysis and the biological explanation of our theorem.

Projecting the Dynamic Trends of Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome:Modeling the Epidemic in Sichuan Province, China

Objective Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the current status and dynamic trends of the human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)prevalence in Sichuan,the second most heavily affected province in China,and to explore future interventions.Methods The epidemiological,behavioral,and population census data from multiple sources were analyzed to extract inputs for an acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(AIDS)epidemic model(AEM).Baseline curves,derived from historical trends in HIV prevalence,were used,and the AEM was employed to examine future intervention scenarios.Results In 2015,the modeled data suggested an adult HIV prevalence of 0.191%in Sichuan,with an estimated 128,766 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,983 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.Considering current high-risk behaviors,the model predicts an increase in the adult prevalence to 0.306%by 2025,projecting an estimated 212,168 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,555 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.Conclusion Heterosexual transmission will likely emerge as the primary mode of AIDS transmission in Sichuan.Furthermore,we anticipate a stabilization in the incidence of AIDS with a concurrent increase in prevalence.Implementing comprehensive intervention measures aimed at high-risk groups could effectively alleviate the spread of AIDS in Sichuan.

Discrete Element Modelling of Damage Evolution of Concrete Considering Meso-Structure of ITZ

The mechanical properties of interfacial transition zones(ITZs)have traditionally been simplified by reducing the stiffness of cement in previous simulation methods.A novel approach based on the discrete element method(DEM)has been developed for modeling concrete.This new approach efficiently simulates the meso-structure of ITZs,accurately capturing their heterogeneous properties.Validation against established uniaxial compression experiments confirms the precision of thismodel.The proposedmodel canmodel the process of damage evolution containing cracks initiation,propagation and penetration.Under increasing loads,cracks within ITZs progressively accumulate,culminating in macroscopic fractures that traverse themortarmatrix,forming the complex,serpentine path of cracks.This study reveals four distinct displacement patterns:tensile compliant,tensile opposite,mixed tensile-shear,and shear opposite patterns,each indicative of different stages in concrete’s damage evolution.The widening angle of these patterns delineates the progression of cracks,with the tensile compliant pattern signaling the initial crack appearance and the shear opposite pattern indicating the concrete model’s ultimate failure.

Understanding roof deformation mechanics and parametric sensitivities of coal mine entries using the discrete element method

Although conventional coal mine designs are conservative regarding pillar strength,local failures such as roof-falls and pillar bursts still affect mine safety and operations.Previous studies have identified that discontinuous,layered roof materials have some self-supporting capacity.This research is a preliminary step towards understanding these mechanics in coal-measure rocks.Although others have considered broad conceptual models and simplified analogs for mine roof behavior,this study presents a unique numerical model that more completely represents in-situ roof conditions.The discrete element method(DEM)is utilized to conduct a parametric analysis considering a range of in-situ stress ratios,material properties,and joint networks to determine the parameters controlling the stability of single-entries modeled in two-dimensions.Model results are compared to empirical observations of roof-support effectiveness(ARBS)in the context of the coal mine roof rating(CMRR)system.Results such as immediate roof displacement,overall stability,and statistical relationships between model parameters and outcomes are presented herein.Potential practical applications of this line of research include:(1)roof-support optimization for a range of coal-measure rocks,(2)establishment of a relationship between roof stability and pillar stress,and(3)determination of which parameters are most critical to roof stability and therefore require concentrated evaluation.

Discrete Element Modeling of Tangjiagou Two-Branch Rock Avalanche Triggered by the 2013 Lushan MW6.6 Earthquake,China

Two branches of Tangjiagou rock avalanche were triggered by Lushan earthquake in Sichuan Province,China on April 20th,2013.The rock avalanche has transported about 1500000 m3 of sandstone from the source area.Based on discrete element modeling,this study simulates the deformation,failure and movement process of the rock avalanche.Under seismic loading,the mechanism and process of deformation,failure,and runout of the two branches are similar.In detail,the stress concentration occur firstly on the top of the mountain ridge,and accordingly,the tensile deformation appears.With the increase of seismic loading,the strain concentration zone extends in the forward and backward directions along the slipping surface,forming a locking segment.As a result,the slipping surface penetrates and the slide mass begin to slide down with high speed.Finally,the avalanche accumulates in the downstream and forms a small barrier lake.Modeling shows that a number of rocks on the surface exhibit patterns of horizontal throwing and vertical jumping under strong ground shaking.We suggest that the movement of the rock avalanche is a complicated process with multiple stages,including formation of the two branches,high-speed sliding,transformation into debris flows,further movement and collision,accumulation,and the final steady state.Topographic amplification effects are also revealed based on acceleration and velocity of special monitoring points.The horizontal and vertical runout distances of the surface materials are much greater than those of the internal materials.Besides,the sliding duration is also longer than that of the internal rock mass.

Algorithmic approach to discrete fracture network flow modeling in consideration of realistic connections in large-scale fracture networks

Analyzing rock mass seepage using the discrete fracture network(DFN)flow model poses challenges when dealing with complex fracture networks.This paper presents a novel DFN flow model that incorporates the actual connections of large-scale fractures.Notably,this model efficiently manages over 20,000 fractures without necessitating adjustments to the DFN geometry.All geometric analyses,such as identifying connected fractures,dividing the two-dimensional domain into closed loops,triangulating arbitrary loops,and refining triangular elements,are fully automated.The analysis processes are comprehensively introduced,and core algorithms,along with their pseudo-codes,are outlined and explained to assist readers in their programming endeavors.The accuracy of geometric analyses is validated through topological graphs representing the connection relationships between fractures.In practical application,the proposed model is employed to assess the water-sealing effectiveness of an underground storage cavern project.The analysis results indicate that the existing design scheme can effectively prevent the stored oil from leaking in the presence of both dense and sparse fractures.Furthermore,following extensive modification and optimization,the scale and precision of model computation suggest that the proposed model and developed codes can meet the requirements of engineering applications.

Stochastic Bifurcation of an SIS Epidemic Model with Treatment and Immigration

In this paper, we investigate an SIS model with treatment and immigration. Firstly, the two-dimensional model is simplified by using the stochastic averaging method. Then, we derive the local stability of the stochastic system by computing the Lyapunov exponent of the linearized system. Further, the global stability of the stochastic model is analyzed based on the singular boundary theory. Moreover, we prove that the model undergoes a Hopf bifurcation and a pitchfork bifurcation. Finally, several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results. .

Qualitative Properties of Equilibrium Point in a Discrete Predator-Prey Model

In this paper, the dynamic properties of a discrete predator-prey model are discussed. The properties of non-hyperbolic fixed points and hyperbolic fixed points of the model are analyzed. First, by using the classic Shengjin formula, we find the existence conditions for fixed points of the model. Then, by using the qualitative theory of ordinary differential equations and matrix theory we indicate which points are hyperbolic and which are non-hyperbolic and the associated conditions.

Stability of a Delayed Stochastic Epidemic COVID-19 Model with Vaccination and with Differential Susceptibility

In this paper, we treat the spread of COVID-19 using a delayed stochastic SVIRS (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Susceptible) epidemic model with a general incidence rate and differential susceptibility. We start with a deterministic model, then add random perturbations on the contact rate using white noise to obtain a stochastic model. We first show that the delayed stochastic differential equation that describes the model has a unique global positive solution for any positive initial value. Under the condition R0 ≤ 1, we prove the almost sure asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the model.

Traveling Wave Solutions of a SIR Epidemic Model with Spatio-Temporal Delay

In this paper, we studied the traveling wave solutions of a SIR epidemic model with spatial-temporal delay. We proved that this result is determined by the basic reproduction number R0and the minimum wave speed c*of the corresponding ordinary differential equations. The methods used in this paper are primarily the Schauder fixed point theorem and comparison principle. We have proved that when R0>1and c>c*, the model has a non-negative and non-trivial traveling wave solution. However, for R01and c≥0or R0>1and 0cc*, the model does not have a traveling wave solution.

A Nonstandard Finite Difference Scheme for SIS Epidemic Model with Delay: Stability and Bifurcation Analysis

A numerical scheme for a SIS epidemic model with a delay is constructed by applying a nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) method. The dynamics of the obtained discrete system is investigated. First we show that the discrete system has equilibria which are exactly the same as those of continuous model. By studying the distribution of the roots of the characteristics equations related to the linearized system, we can provide the stable regions in the appropriate parameter plane. It is shown that the conditions for those equilibria to be asymptotically stable are consistent with the continuous model for any size of numerical time-step. Furthermore, we also establish the existence of Neimark-Sacker bifurcation (also called Hopf bifurcation for map) which is controlled by the time delay. The analytical results are confirmed by some numerical simulations.

Numerical Methods for Discrete Double Barrier Option Pricing Based on Merton Jump Diffusion Model

As a kind of weak-path dependent options, barrier options are an important kind of exotic options. Because the pricing formula for pricing barrier options with discrete observations cannot avoid computing a high dimensional integral, numerical calculation is time-consuming. In the current studies, some scholars just obtained theoretical derivation, or gave some simulation calculations. Others impose underlying assets on some strong assumptions, for example, a lot of calculations are based on the Black-Scholes model. This thesis considers Merton jump diffusion model as the basic model to derive the pricing formula of discrete double barrier option;numerical calculation method is used to approximate the continuous convolution by calculating discrete convolution. Then we compare the results of theoretical calculation with simulation results by Monte Carlo method, to verify their efficiency and accuracy. By comparing the results of degeneration constant parameter model with the results of previous models we verified the calculation method is correct indirectly. Compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method, the numerical results are stable. Even if we assume the simulation results are accurate, the time consumed by the numerical method to achieve the same accuracy is much less than the Monte Carlo simulation method.

Evaluation of mountain slope stability considering the impact of geological interfaces using discrete fractures model

The stability of rock slope is often controlled by the existing discontinuous surfaces, such as discrete fractures, which are ubiquitously distributing in a geological medium. In contrast with the traditional approaches used in soil slope with a continuous assumption, the simulation methods of jointed rock slope are different from that of in soil slope. This paper presents a study on jointed rock slope stability using the proposed discontinuous approach, which considers the effects of discrete fractures. Comparing with traditional methods to model fractures in an implicit way, the presented approach provides a method to simulate fractures in an explicit way, where grids between rock matrix and fractures are independent. To complete geometric components generation and mesh partition for the model, the corresponding algorithms were devised. To evaluate the stability state of rock slope quantitatively, the strength reduction method was integrated into our analysis framework. A benchmark example was used to verify the validation of the approach. A jointed rock slope, which contains natural fractures, was selected as a case study and was simulated regarding the workflow of our framework. It was set up in the light of the geological condition of the site. Slope stability was evaluated under different loading conditions with various fracture patterns. Numerical results show that fractures have significant contributions to slope stability, and different fracture patterns would lead to different shapes of the slip surface. The devised method has the ability to calculate a non-circular slip surface, which is different from a circular slip surface obtained by classical methods.

Stability Analysis of an SIR Epidemic Model with Non-Linear Incidence Rate and Treatment

We consider a SIR epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and treatment. We show that if the basic reproduction number, R0 is less than unity and the disease free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. Moreover, we show that if R0 > 1, the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. In the end, we give some numerical results to compare our model with existing model and to show the effect of the treatment term on the model.