Future demographic dividend——tapping the source of China’s economic growth

This paper presents a review of the demographic dividend in China’s economic growth or the contribution of the demographic factor to China’s rapid economic growth over the past 30 years. Based on this review, it explores how China has sustained high-speed economic growth in the midst of a slowdown in working age population growth, surplus labor depletion and population aging. This study intends to demonstrate that the second demographic dividend may still arise after the decline and even disappearance of the first demographic dividend to avoid demographic debt by boosting labor productivity through the furtherance of education, extending the competitive advantage of China’s industry, tapping new sources of savings through institutional arrangements of pension security, and expanding labor resource and human capital stock in the aging era through the institutional arrangements in the labor market.

Population Quality-based Demographic Dividend,Industrial Transformation and Sustainable Development of the Chinese Economy and Society

China is faced with a decreasing labor supply and therefore is losing its cost advantage.However,benefiting from continuous improvement of population quality,China's population quality-based demographic dividend begins to replace the quantity-based dividend to play a dominant role in economic development.Thus,in supply-side structure,rather than essential factors,it paves the way for the sustainable development of the Chinese economy.With the addition of the successful industrial transformation and upgrading,China still has the advantage to overcome the middle income trap and maintain the momentum of economic growth.

Is It Demographic Dividend or Trap for India and China?

The relation between economic growth and population growth is a widely debated topic in economics.The discussioncircles around three main views about demography;(i) Population Neutralism,(ii) Demographic Dividends,and (iii)Demographic Traps.This paper provides a quantitative definition of the demographic trap based on the theoreticaldemographic distribution curve.We then compare the results of the world’s two most populous countries,China and India.The results show that India may fall into a demographic trap while China will not and,hence these two countries exhibittwo distinctly opposite demographic characteristics.Extending the results to include examination of a set of rich and poorcountries,we conclude that there is no evidence of a demographic trap in the U.S.and Canada,while it is highly possiblethat Algeria and Angola will get caught in one.

健全因地制宜发展新质生产力体制机制推动中国式现代化

党的二十届三中全会决议明确指出:“要健全因地制宜发展新质生产力体制机制”,这对于推动中国式现代化具有重大意义。习近平总书记创造性提出“因地制宜发展新质生产力”,这是一项重大理论和实践创新,将为我国高质量发展注入全新动力。为了深入学习贯彻党的二十届三中全会精神,加快形成同新质生产力更相适应的生产关系,健全因地制宜发展新质生产力体制机制,完善战略性产业发展政策和治理体系,建立未来产业投入增长机制,完善促进数字经济和智能经济发展政策体系,促进耐心资本和各类先进生产要素向发展新质生产力集聚,围绕“健全发展新质生产力体制机制推动中国式现代化”这个新时代经济发展的重要课题,本刊邀请国内著名专家、学者,撰写一组笔谈文章,以飨读者。

"Labor Shortage" or "Difficult Employment":A Study on the Employment Problem of College Students from the Perspective of Demographic Dividend

[Objective] The aim was to analyze the phenomenon of employment diffi- culty and labor shortage, and to reveal the influencing factors of employment difli- culty and labor shortage. [Method] On the basis of the economic principle of popu- lation dividend, the use of human resources and natural resource constraints The IS-LM model describes these two states. [Results] The resource constraints have a ＂squeeze＂ effect on the demographic dividend, and employment pressure is shown in terms of the population opportunity window; the labor market segmentation, the ir- rational industrial structure, the backward curriculum and employment concept are the main factors affecting employment and labor shortage. [Conclusion] The way to solve this dilemma must be removed from the division of labor market, the adjust- ment of industrial structure, the setting of university specialty, the change of em- ployment concept of university graduates as well as the improvement of the quality of labor.

China’s Second Demographic Window of Opportunity

The demographic dividend refers to the process of transforming population advantages into economic ones to achieve rapid growth. The opening and acquisition of a demographic window of opportunity requires corresponding institutional guarantees. Thanks to reform and opening-up, China has opened and reaped its first demographic window of opportunity. As China enters the critical stage of reform and upgrades for economic development, population advantages have been shifting from quantity to quality on a solid basis, marking the opening of our second demographic window of opportunity. Establishing and implementing compatible social and economic policies will be helpful to maximize advantages of this demographic “gift” and modernize China’s economic system.

Transition from Demographic Dividend to Reform Dividend:——Simulation of China's Potential Growth Rate

Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020). China's economic growth sustainability hinges upon its transition from the previous dependence on demographic dividend to the future reform dividend. In the growth accounting equation, we have simulated various reform initiatives and arrived at the following findings. First, although both the labor participation rate and TFP can increase China's potential growth rate, the former will only achieve a short-term growth effect, which will diminish in the long run. By contrast, the growth effect of TFP demonstrates the tendency of continuous increase. This further indicates that China's economic growth will increasingly rely on TFP improvement instead of traditional factor input. Second, different from the diminishing growth effect of enrolment rate, training may play a pivotal role in human capital development to significantly enhance potential growth rates. Third, if all reform initiatives can achieve their expected effects, integrated reform dividends may reach one or two percentage points of China's potential growth rate.

Assessment of China's Qualitative Demographic Dividend for Economic Growth during 2016-2020

Given the great strides that China＇s education sector has made in recent decades, it can be expected that the overall workforce quality of exiting China＇s labor market in coming one or two decades will be relatively low, while the overall quality of workforce newly entering into China＇s labor market will be high. As the new, bettereducated generation takes over, China＇s workforce quality will be vastly improved. This in turn will promote economic growth. We refer to economic growth arising from improved workforce quality as qualitative demographic dividend. Using the computable general equilibrium （CGE） model, this paper investigates the relationship between workforce quality improvements and economic growth. According to the model＇s results, an improvement in workforce quality will raise the economic growth rate by about two percentage points per annum between 2016 and 2020 and by 10 percentage points cumulatively by 2020. In other words, GDP will be 1.1 times the level of baseline GDP by 2020 due to the improved education levels. Given different production functions across sectors, the improvement of workforce quality will affect different sectors in different ways. On the whole, the improvement of workforce quality is more favorable to the development of capital-intensive sectors and sectors with rapid technology progress. According to this paper, considering the improvement of workforce quality, we cannot conclude that China＇s potential economic growth rate has already begun to decline. Despite diminishing conventional quantitative demographic dividends, China ＂s qualitative demographic dividends will keep rising. Qualitative demographic dividends will further push forward China＇s industrial restructuring and the strategic transition of industrial competitiveness from quantitative to qualitative and from an extensive to an intensive pattern of development.

论长寿内卷化

进入长寿时代后,农村老年人在其高龄阶段的生命历程中,会遭遇各种负性生活事件。伴随其机体衰退,他们会不可避免地坠入巨大的生活风险之中。结合中国传统的老龄观,通过对“内卷化”这一概念的辨析和创造性转化,可以构建“长寿内卷化”的概念,以理解当前农村高龄老年人的生活风险状态。当高龄老年人的生命历程步入内卷点之后,其寿命虽然仍然在延长,但由于各种负性生命事件的发生和影响,生命质量却开始下滑,与理想状态相反的是,这段生命历程将持续进入病寿、苦寿、辱寿等单一存在或同时并存的生活风险状态;当这一曲线下滑至接近生命质量轴的交叉点时,它意味着高龄老年人生命主动或被动的终结。支撑从长寿内卷化到生活风险发生的机制是,城镇化进程带来的社会压力通过环状结构的新家庭结构形式向高龄老年人转移。秉持积极老龄观,加强政策干预,实现长寿去内卷化,是长寿时代所必需面对的重要议题。作为一个分析性概念的“长寿内卷化”,不仅对理解当前农村高龄老年人的生活风险具有理论意义和政策意义,将来也同样适用于分析城市高龄老年人的生活风险状况。

东南亚地区跨境电商直播发展机遇、挑战与对策研究

互联网新技术的迭代升级推动了跨境电商的发展,跨境电商直播新业态凭借实时互动的特性为消费者带来了全新的购物体验,进而在全球范围迅速蔓延。东南亚市场作为全球数字经济发展最具潜力的市场之一,庞大的人口红利、较高的互联网渗透率和城市化水平以及中国与东南亚密切的经贸关系,为东南亚地区跨境电商直播提供了巨大的发展机遇。同时,东南亚跨境电商直播发展面临诸多挑战,例如语言多样货币不统一、不同国家间消费偏好差异大、政府监管态度趋严、物流基础设施落后、第三方支付普及度低等。未来,要提高东南亚跨境电商直播本地化运营能力、加强跨境直播电商生态体系建设与风险管理、完善物流基础设施建设、抱团破局拓展东南亚物流业务、建立跨境电商第三方支付系统,以推动东南亚地区跨境电商直播的稳步发展。

A Study of the Universal Two-child Policy’s Impact on China’s Future Population

The most essential step in adjusting and improving the childbearing policy, the universal two-child policy will produce far-reaching impacts on the future development of China’s population. With its implementation, the country’s total population will peak later, the underage population and its proportion will increase substantially, the working-age population will experience a slower decline, and the aging of China’s population will be eased. However, the drop in the proportion of working-age people over the last 15 years has expedited the reduction of the demographic dividend, the elderly population will remain unaffected over the next 60 years, the aging of the population will continue to deepen, and at the same time, the increased child dependency burden will expand the overall dependency ratio.

人口集聚对经济高质量发展的作用机制研究

经济发展初期,人口集聚对经济增长具有显著的正向促进作用,然而随着人口红利的消失及粗放式发展呈现出的负外部性加剧,现阶段我国经济发展面临巨大挑战,经济增速开始放缓。此时,中国发展迈入新的转折点,国家开始将重心从速度转向质量与效益,更注重经济增长的可持续性。本文紧扣新发展理念,围绕创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五个维度展开分析,构建人口集聚对经济高质量发展作用机制的理论分析框架,并得出结论:人口集聚对经济高质量发展的影响呈倒“U”型关系,并存在空间溢出效应,产业结构高级化在此过程中起正向调节作用。鉴于此,积极发挥人口集聚的经济效应,制定适宜的人口调控政策,推进经济高质量发展区域协调化及深化产业结构高级化可以有效推进我国经济高质量发展。

滞胀风险下我国宏观经济调控的政策选择

近期我国经济呈增速趋缓、物价攀升的边际滞胀态势。阻碍我国经济高速增长的因素主要是人口红利减少、储蓄—投资转化率低和制度不完善,引致我国通货膨胀的因素主要是政府宽松的财政货币政策、企业成本上涨和公众的高通胀预期。借鉴国内外有关滞胀治理的理论研究,我国应调整计划生育政策,提高劳动的收入份额,增加教育、医疗卫生和社保投入,实行结构性减税,完善科技投入体制,完善产权、户籍、社保和行政法律制度,明确货币政策的币值稳定目标,合理引导通胀预期。

人口红利转变对居民储蓄水平影响的研究——以福建省为例

改革开放以来,我国人口红利和居民储蓄水平都发生了不同程度的变化。在Leff模型基础上,运用福建省三十多年来的统计数据进行实证分析,结果显示:人口红利变动与居民储蓄水平正相关,同时,人口红利变动通过作用于居民储蓄水平进而影响社会经济的发展。

Harnessing Demographic Dividends

THE history of all developed economies and even the emerging ones have been their abilities to harness human resource into capital and use its diverse multiplier effects to create value chains spanning all other resources categories. In addition, this process unleashes outcomes that include a rise in national economic aggregates and more importantly, improved quality of living standards for citizens.

“双循环”新发展格局下银发经济高质量发展的三重逻辑

推动银发经济高质量发展,实现构建“双循环”新发展格局与积极应对人口老龄化国家战略同频共振,是中国式现代化背景下将人口老龄化问题转化为发展机遇的关键之举。银发经济高质量发展通过强化生产与供给格局,为提升“双循环”需求链和供应链水平提供动力,而“双循环”新发展格局通过调整流通与分配格局,塑造银发经济合作竞争新优势,为产业链和价值链跃升提供契机。发展银发经济与构建“双循环”格局二者协同耦合,相互促进,本质是以消费牵引及产业适老化升级畅通社会再生产的各个环节,促进生产要素高效配置,激发银发产业发展活力,释放银发消费巨大潜力。反观现实层面,银发消费能力意愿人群差异大,消费权益保障机制不完善,需求潜力转型释放不充分;产业事业发展定位不清晰,要素资源创新融合不深入,产品服务供需适配性不强,产业链供应链缺乏竞争优势等供需困境,成为银发经济高质量发展必须攻破的关窍。为此,政策层面应注重从需求端与供给侧同步发力,强化银发经济发展的人口、环境、产业与政策基础支撑:需求侧以提升银发消费能力和改善银发消费环境为目标,促进银发消费预期向现实消费转变;供给侧以明确产业发展定位,强化资源要素保障为重点,助推银发经济转型升级与对外开放。

父职实践与父职红利的阶层异质性——基于四期CFPS数据的实证分析

使用2014—2020年四期CFPS数据对不同受教育水平和职业阶层的父亲的育儿投入状况与父职红利效应进行异质性分析发现,男性的育儿投入总体较少,但相较其他父亲群体,受教育程度较高、职业阶层地位较高的父亲的育儿投入较多。生育对男性工资的影响表现出一定的“惩罚”效应,但这种“惩罚”效应主要存在于受教育程度较高和职业阶层地位较高的群体之中。上述结果表明,新父职以及与之相伴随的“父职惩罚”与父亲的社会阶层高度相关。未来应鼓励阶层地位较低的父亲更多地承担育儿责任,同时也要密切关注男性的工作—家庭冲突,减少因育儿导致的对父亲职业发展的负面影响。

我国中小学教师人事政策分析与启示

教师的人事政策是指政府出台管理教师编制、招聘、考核、退出、权益保障等方面的文件,其对教师的职业稳定性和专业发展具有深远影响。在人口新形势背景下,“县管校聘”这一人事政策通过分类核准与动态调整编制、科学灵活分配岗位、实行竞聘上岗、推进交流轮岗、建立教师退出机制和完善教师合法权益制度等方面解决当下因生源变动而引发的中小学教师资源配置各类难题。政策指引教师身份正从“学校人”向“系统人”转变,进而促发未来教师职业工作特点的改变。教师只有响应身份和职责的转变,积极应对政策带来的机遇和挑战,才能适应人口新形势,实现个体职业可持续发展。

经济“新常态”背景下“中国模式”的转型升级

"中国模式"和经济"新常态"作为近年来出现在理论界和公众视野的热点词汇,前者承载着改革开放三十余年以来中国经济改革与发展的基本模式和经验总结;后者是决策层对当前中国经济形势的基本分析和研判。"中国模式"在引领中国经济取得长期持续高速增长的巨大成就的同时,其所存在的问题和缺陷也是导致当前中国经济步入"新常态"的一个重要因素。推动"中国模式"的转型升级以使其妥善应对经济"新常态"背景下的新问题和新挑战,是关系未来中国经济能否在"新常态"时期实现可持续发展的一项重大议题。而转变经济改革的驱动机制、具体方式与策略,以及经济增长方式和宏观经济政策,是推动经济"新常态"背景下"中国模式"转型升级的主要途径。

中国式第二次人口红利:理论探究与治理选择

随着全球范围内人口老龄化程度不断加深,传统人口红利逐渐式微,第二次人口红利理论的提出为人口老龄化背景下的经济增长开拓了新视角。中国式第二次人口红利理论的核心观点是人口质量的提升可以部分抵消由人口老龄化导致的劳动年龄人口持续减少带来的负面影响,并且在科学技术快速发展和广泛应用的大趋势下,能够充分发挥各年龄段尤其是年长劳动人口的人力资源潜能,重构社会经济生产方式,最终促进国民经济的持续稳定增长。我国正处于能够实现中国式第二次人口红利的发展阶段并具备将其兑现的现实条件。实现中国式第二次人口红利需要政策制定者基于正确认识人口红利相关理论、把握未来中国人口长期动态、秉持供给侧和需求侧双管齐下等人口治理策略,对社会和市场进行有效政策指引,在人口老龄化的大趋势下实现社会经济的持续稳定发展。