The Formation of Oscillation Patterns Based on the Planetary Gravitational Field and Their Suitability for Earthquake Prediction

The fluctuating planetary gravitational field influences not only activities on the Sun but also on the Earth. A special correlation function describes the harmonics of these fluctuations. Groups of earthquakes form oscillation patterns that differ significantly from randomly chosen control groups. These patterns are suitable as an element of an AI for the probability of earthquakes.

Earthquake prediction from China's mobile gravity data

The relation between plate tectonics and earthquake evolution is analyzed systematically on the basis of 1998-2010 absolute and relative gravity data from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China. Most earthquakes originated in the plate boundary or within the fault zone. Tectonic deformation was most intense and exhibited discontinuity within the tectonically active fault zone because of the differential movement; the stress accumulation produced an abrupt gravity change, which was further enhanced by the earthquake. The gravity data from China's Mainland since 2000 obviously reflected five major earthquakes （Ms 〉 7）, all of which were better reflected than before 2000. Regional gravity anomalies and a gravity gradient change were observed in the area around the epicenter about 2 or 3 years before the earthquake occurred, suggesting that gravity change may be a seismic precursor. Furthermore, in this study, the medium-term predictions of the Ms7.3 Yutian, Ms8.0 Wenchuan, and Ms7.0 Lushan earthquakes are analytically pre- sented and evaluated, especially to estimate location of earthquake.

V_p/V_s Anisotropy and Implications for Crustal Composition Identification and Earthquake Prediction

The ratio of P- to S-wave velocities （Vp/Vs） is regarded as one of the most diagnostic properties of natural rocks. It has been used as a discriminant of composition for the continental crust and provides valuable constraints on its formation and evolution processes. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal changes in Vp/Vs before and after earthquakes are probably the most promising avenue to understanding the source mechanics and possibly predicting earthquakes. Here we calibrate the variations in Vp/Vs in dry, anisotropic crustal rocks and provide a set of basic information for the interpretation of future seismic data from the Wenchuan earthquake Fault zone Scientific Drilling （WFSD） project and other surveys. Vp/Vs is a constant （Ф0） for an isotropic rock. However, most of crustal rocks are anisotropic due to lattice-preferred orientations of anisotropic minerals （e.g., mica, amphibole, plagioclase and pyroxene） and cracks as well as thin compositional layering. The Vp/Vs ratio of an anisotropic rock measured along a selected pair of propagation-vibration directions is an apparent value （Фy） that is significantly different from the value for its isotropic counterpart （Ф0）. The usefulness of apparent Vp/Vs ratios as a diagnostic of crustal composition depends largely on rock seismic anisotropy. A 5% of P- and S-wave velocity anisotropy is sufficient to make it impossible to determine the crustal composition using the conventional criteria （Vp/Vs≤1.756 for felsic rocks, 1.756〈Vp/Vs≤1.809 for intermediate rocks, 1.809〈Vp/Vs≤1.944 for mafic rocks, and Vp/V2〉1.944 fluidfilled porous/fractured or partially molten rocks） if the information about the wave propagation-polarization directions with respect to the tectonic framework is unknown. However, the variations in Vp/Vs measured from borehole seismic experiments can be readily interpreted according to the orientations of the ray path and the polarization of the shear waves with respect to the present-day principal stress directions （i.e., the orientation of cracks） and the frozen fabric （i.e., foliation and lineation）.

Studies and experiments on earthquake prediction during 1999～2002

This paper briefly reviewed the research progresses of earthquake prediction and/or forecasting in China during 1999~2002, especially focused on mid-short term prediction methods with approaches of seismicity, crustal deformation, electromagnetism, ground water and the analysis by synthesis, and the application of the methods to the practice of earthquake prediction.

Application of the value of nonlinear parameters H and ΔH in strong earthquake prediction

In this paper, the relation that the curves of nonlinear parameter H and its difference Δ H bear with strong earthquakes in North China has been studied. First, the RSH algorithm has been applied to the North China region; the schemes of six quantitative prediction indexes have been studied in detail and then tested by tracing back predictions. The result shows that all the six prediction schemes are of certain prediction efficiency and have passed the test. Among the six schemes, A and E are of the best effect, with correlation coefficients R of 0.47 and 0.48 respectively. We recommend these two schemes for practical use in prediction in the future. Furthermore, the relation between the curve of Δ H (the difference of H) and strong earthquake has been studied. Based on the above results, the RSΔH algorithm that uses the Δ H value to predict strong earthquake has been put forward and applied to predict strong earthquakes in North China. The correlation coefficient R of tracing back prediction by this method is 0.45; this means that this method is also of better prediction efficiency. A combined application of these two algorithms has also been proposed. By the combined method, the time length spanned by false predictions can be shortened and thus the R value can be raised.

An scientific evaluation of annual earthquake prediction ability

The scientific idea of earthquake prediction in China is introduced in this paper. The various problems on evaluation of earthquake prediction ability are analyzed. The practical effect of prediction on annual seismic risk areas in 1990~2000 in China is discussed based on R-value evaluation method, and the ability of present earthquake prediction in China is reviewed.

Research on nonlinear R／S method and its application in earthquake prediction

ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎｎｏｎｌｉｎｅａｒＲ／ＳｍｅｔｈｏｄａｎｄｉｔｓｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｉｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎＢｉ－ＱｕａｎＷＡＮＧ（王碧泉）；Ｈａｎ－ＭｉｎｇＨＵＡＮＧ（黄汉明）；Ｈｏｎｇ－ＳｈｕｎＦＡＮ（范洪顺）；Ｃｈｕｅｎ...

On numerical earthquake prediction

Can earthquakes be predicted？ How should people overcome the difficulties encountered in the study of earthquake prediction？ This issue can take inspiration from the experiences of weather forecast. Although weather forecasting took a period of about half a century to advance from empirical to numerical forecast, it has achieved significant success. A consensus has been reached among the Chinese seismological community that earth- quake prediction must also develop from empirical fore- casting to physical prediction. However, it is seldom mentioned that physical prediction is characterized by quantitatively numerical predictions based on physical laws. This article discusses five key components for numerical earthquake prediction and their current status. We conclude that numerical earthquake prediction should now be put on the planning agenda and its roadmap designed, seismic stations should be deployed and observations made according to the needs of numerical prediction, and theoretical research should be carried out.

Light for Earthquake Prediction:Shocks before the L'Aquila Earthquake of April 6,2009

The temporal-spatial distribution of mid-small earthquakes in Italy and its surroundings from January 1 to April 5,2009 shows that there were significant foreshocks before the moderate L'Aquila earthquake of April 6,2009.The enhancement of frequency and intensity of small earthquakes and their concentrating tendency to the future main shock have provided a comprehensive case for digging methods of earthquake forecasting with foreshocks.

New Progress in the Application of Satellite Thermal Infrared Imagery to Earthquake Prediction

The concept of stochastic resonance (SR) has been introduced into the analysis of satellite thermal infrared images. Six kinds of anomalous phenomena related to crustal movement were recognized in satellite thermal infrared images. Six diagnostic indicators for the prediction of global earthquakes with magnitude ≥6.0 and their quantitative evaluation standards have been established. The microscopic behavior of global crustal movement is successfully controlled by using satellite thermal infrared imagery, and the occurrence time and magnitude of over 80% of global strong earthquakes occurred since the foundation of the observation station have been successfully predicted. It is believed that the combination of satellite thermal infrared information with macroscopic anomalous phenomena will play an important role in earthquake hazard reduction.

Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030

The long-term earthquake prediction from 2021 to 2030 is carried out by researching the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland.Based on the strong earthquake recurrence model,the cumulative probability of each target fault in the next 10 years is given by the recurrence period and elapsed time of each fault,which are adopted from relevant studies such as seismological geology,geodesy,and historical earthquake records.Based on the long-term predictions of large earthquakes throughout the world,this paper proposes a comprehensive judgment scheme based on the fault segments with the seismic gap,motion strongly locked,sparse small-moderate earthquakes,and apparent Coulomb stress increase.This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the relative risk for strong earthquakes that may occur in the coming 10 years on the major faults in the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland.The present loading rate of each fault is first constrained by geodetic observations;the cumulative displacement of each fault is then estimated by the elapsed time since the most recent strong earthquake.

A review of tidal triggering of global earthquakes

Earthquake prediction remains a challenging and difficult task for scientists all over the world.The tidal triggering of earthquakes is being proven by an increasing number of investigations,most of which have shown that earthquakes are positively correlated with tides,and thus,tides provide a potential tool for earthquake prediction,especially for imminent earthquakes.In this study,publications concerning the tidal triggering of earthquakes were compiled and analyzed with regard to global earthquakes,which were classified into three main types:tectonic,volcanic,and slow earthquakes.The results reveal a high correlation between tectonic earthquakes and tides(mainly for semidiurnal and diurnal tides;14-day tides) before and after the occurrence of significant earthquakes.For volcanic earthquakes,observations of volcanoes on the seafloor and land indicate that volcanic earthquakes in near-shore volcanic areas and mid-ocean ridges have a strong correlation with tidal forces,mostly those with semidiurnal and diurnal periods.For slow earthquakes,the periodicity of the tremor duration is highly correlated with semidiurnal and diurnal tides.In conclusion,the tidal triggering of these three types of earthquakes makes a positive contribution to earthquake preparation and understanding the triggering mechanism,and thus,the prediction of these types of earthquakes should be investigated.However,there are still several inadequacies on this topic that need to be resolved to gain a definitiveanswer regarding the tidal triggering of all earthquakes.The main inadequacies are discussed in this paper from our point of view.

The medium- and short-term prediction methods of strong earthquakes based on neural network

The field of neural network has found solid application in the past ten years and the field itself is still developing rapidly. Neural network is composed of many simple elements operating in parallel. A neural network can be trained to perform a particular mapping and this is the basis of its application to practical problems. In this paper, new methods for predicting the strong earthquakes are presented based on neural network. Neural network learns from existing earthquake sequences or earthquake precursors how to make medium and short term prediction of strong earthquakes. This paper describes two neural network prediction models. One is the model based on earthquake evolution sequences, which is applied to the modeling of the magnitude evolution sequences in the Mainland of China, the other is based on earthquake precursors, which is applied to the modeling of the occurrence time of strong earthquakes in North China. Test results show that the prediction methods based on neural networks are efficient, and convenient. They would find more application in the future.

Application of support vector machine to synthetic earthquake prediction

This paper introduces the method of support vector machine （SVM） into the field of synthetic earthquake prediction, which is a non-linear and complex seismogenic system. As an example, we apply this method to predict the largest annual magnitude for the North China area （30°E-42°E, 108°N-125°N） and the capital region （38°E-41.5°E, 114°N-120°N） on the basis of seismicity parameters and observed precursory data. The corresponding prediction rates for the North China area and the capital region are 64.1% and 75%, respectively, which shows that the method is feasible.

The idea and project of the “Medium－Scale Experiment Field for Earthquake Prediction”──Research on observations and applications of mining earthquake in Mentougou Coal Mine

A brief account of the development of the research on mining earthquakes and the general situation of the Mentougou Coal Mine medium scale experiment field for earthquake prediction and the project of monitor and prediction is given. The differences of waveforms between mining earthquakes and natural earthquakes is discussed. The magnitude frequency distribution of the 79 000 mining earthquakes of over M L1.0 from 1984 to 1995 is summarized . Finally, taking PH and PV, the principal compressive stress components of the focal mechanism of the mining earthquakes, as the criteria, analyses the stress background of the 12 large mining earthquakes.

Application of a time-magnitude prediction model for earthquakes

In this paper we discuss the physical meaning of the magnitude-time model parameters for earthquake prediction. The gestation process for strong earthquake in all eleven seismic zones in China can be described by the magnitude-time prediction model using the computations of the parameters of the model. The average model parameter values for China are： b = 0.383, c=0.154, d = 0.035, B = 0.844, C = -0.209, and D = 0.188. The robustness of the model parameters is estimated from the variation in the minimum magnitude of the transformed data, the spatial extent, and the temporal period. Analysis of the spatial and temporal suitability of the model indicates that the computation unit size should be at least 4°× 4°for seismic zones in North China, at least 3° × 3° in Southwest and Northwest China, and the time period should be as long as possible.

Expert system for earthquake prediction（ESEP）（2）－Knowledge representation and evidence combination

This paper deals with knowledge representation of ESEP (Expert System for Earthqauke Prediction). Attending the characteristics of the knowledge in earthquake prediction domain, production representation and procedural representation are connected in the knowledge repesentation model of ESEP named ESEP/K, and three new ways of evidence conbination are proposed for production rules besides 'AND' and 'OR'.

New indexes and methods in earthquake prediction research

This paper gives a brief introduction to a few new indexes and methods published in recent issues of seismological literature which have been explored especially by the authors and many of their collaborators for applying in earthquake prediction research. The new indexes include the statistical indexes of seismicity (Morishita index Iδ, the parameters C and b-value spectrum derived from the magnitude-frequency relation, etc. )and indexes describing the dynamical characteristics of seismic waves obtained from digitized seismologicrecords (wave form linearities, spectral characteristics, etc. ). The new methods fall into two categories:namely the methods of non-linear sciences (fractal analysis, self-similarity and self-organization structure,neural network) and graphical analysis methods of multi-dimensional data (face analysis, projection pursuit,chronogeometric analysis ).

An approach on dynamic earthquake prediction by georesistivitymeasurements

Experiences on earthquake prediction accumulated by the Chinese scientists in the last 20 years were synthetically analyzed. A prediction program was set up to demonstrate the development of the georesistivity anomaly by using of the dynamic image, accordingly the earthquake prone area can be recognized. By revising the DYBS Ⅰ, which was developed in 1989, and adding some latest achievements, we worked out a software on earthquake prediction by the geoelectric method the DYBS Ⅱ. Some new feature of DYBS Ⅱ are: the anomalous area may be determined by the space distribution and its time variation of geoelectric parameters; The dynamic process that is associated with the development of earthquake anomaly can be displayed on the computer screen; Technique for the prediction of an impending earthquake was included too. Some results of the Tangshan earthquake were presented at the end of this paper.

Calculation of b value and its application in earthquake prediction

The improved calculation method of b value is presented in tills paper. The method can enlarge the role of earthquake occurrence frequency in b value calculation and thus increase the b value variation amplitude. In this case,the combination structure variation between earthquake magnitudes and corresponding frequencies could be shown clearly. According to the calculation and analysis for limited mainshocks in the complete seismicity data of selected monitored area with assigned consistent lowest magnitude, the precursor anomaly features, quantitative indexes and the calculation formula of relative subject function of b value variation have been preliminarily worked out. The prediction in short period (from 1 to 3 months) for damage earthquakes in the monitored area mentioned above can be put forward on the basis of the results of quantitative calculation and analysis.