Assessment of immunization procedures for foot-and-mouth disease in large-scale pig farms in China based on actual data and dynamics

Foot-and-mouth disease(FMD)is an acute,highly infectious and pathogenic animal disease.In recent years,with the rapid development of the swine breeding industry in China,pig farms have shown a trend of larger-scale development.Large-scale pig farms employ standardized management,a high level of automation,and a strict_system.However,these farms have a large trading volume,and increased transmission intensity of FMD is noted inside the farm.At present,the main control measure against FMD is pig vaccination.However,a standard for immunization procedures is not available,and currently adopted immunization procedures have not been effectively and systematically evaluated.Taking a typical large-scale pig farm in China as the research subject and considering the breeding pattern,piggery structure,age structure and immunization procedures,an individual-based state probability model is established to evaluate the effectiveness of the immune procedure.Based on numerical simulation,it is concluded that the optimal immunization program involves primary immunization at 40 days of age and secondary immunization at 80 days of age for commercial pigs.Breeding boars and breeding sows are immunized 4 times a year,and reserve pigs are immunized at 169 and 259 days of age.According to the theoretical analysis,the average control reproduction number of individuals under the optimal immunization procedure in the farm is 0.4927.In the absence of immunization,the average is 1.7498,indicating that the epidemic cannot be controlled without immunization procedures.

PRINCIPAL RESPONSE OF VAN DER POL-DUFFING OSCILLATOR UNDER COMBINED DETERMINISTIC AND RANDOM PARAMETRIC EXCITATION

The principal resonance of Van der Pol-Duffing oscillator to combined deterministic and random parametric excitations is investigated. The method of multiple scales was used to determine the equations of modulation of amplitude and phase. The behavior, stability and bifurcation of steady state response were studied. Jumps were shown to occur under some conditions. The effects of damping, detuning, bandwidth, and magnitudes of deterministic and random excitations are analyzed. The theoretical analysis were verified by numerical results.

Bifurcation in most probable phase portraits for a bistable kinetic model with coupling Gaussian and non-Gaussian noises

The phenomenon of stochastic bifurcation driven by the correlated non-Gaussian colored noise and the Gaussian white noise is investigated by the qualitative changes of steady states with the most probable phase portraits.To arrive at the Markovian approximation of the original non-Markovian stochastic process and derive the general approximate Fokker-Planck equation(FPE),we deal with the non-Gaussian colored noise and then adopt the unified colored noise approximation(UCNA).Subsequently,the theoretical equation concerning the most probable steady states is obtained by the maximum of the stationary probability density function(SPDF).The parameter of the uncorrelated additive noise intensity does enter the governing equation as a non-Markovian effect,which is in contrast to that of the uncorrelated Gaussian white noise case,where the parameter is absent from the governing equation,i.e.,the most probable steady states are mainly controlled by the uncorrelated multiplicative noise.Additionally,in comparison with the deterministic counterpart,some peculiar bifurcation behaviors with regard to the most probable steady states induced by the correlation time of non-Gaussian colored noise,the noise intensity,and the non-Gaussian noise deviation parameter are discussed.Moreover,the symmetry of the stochastic bifurcation diagrams is destroyed when the correlation between noises is concerned.Furthermore,the feasibility and accuracy of the analytical predictions are verified compared with those of the Monte Carlo(MC)simulations of the original system.

H atom transfer of collinear OH…O system

A quantum mechanical calculation was performed to study the hydrogen atom transfer of collinear OH…O/OD…O system, for which Delves' coordinates and R-matrix propagation method were applied in a Melius-Blint potential energy surface. The calculation result showed that the state-state H atom transfer probability comported strong oscillation phenomena and collision delay time of the title system was in the fs-ps time scale. The kinetic isotope effect was calculated in this work too.