采用资产组合损失变量描述风险,并基于损失分布的α-(上)分位数给出"期望巨额损失值"ES(expected shortfall)和"条件风险价值"CVaR(conditional value at risk)的定义。在一般损失分布下,通过直接计算说明了任一资...采用资产组合损失变量描述风险,并基于损失分布的α-(上)分位数给出"期望巨额损失值"ES(expected shortfall)和"条件风险价值"CVaR(conditional value at risk)的定义。在一般损失分布下,通过直接计算说明了任一资产组合损失变量的"期望巨额损失值"ES的定义与α-(上)分位数的选取无关;而且也通过直接计算证明了ES与CVaR两者的等价关系;进而通过构造出ES的概率测度族表示证明了ES是一致性风险度量方法。此外,还就相关问题,例如分位数、一致性风险度量、尾部条件期望TCE等,给出了一些有价值的注记。展开更多
This paper studies multi-period risk management problems by presenting a dynamic risk measure. This risk measure is the sum of conditional value-at-risk of each period. The authors model it by Markov decision processe...This paper studies multi-period risk management problems by presenting a dynamic risk measure. This risk measure is the sum of conditional value-at-risk of each period. The authors model it by Markov decision processes and derive its optimality equation. This equation is further transformed equivalently to an analytically tractable one. The authors then use the model and its results to a multi-period portfolio optimization when the return rate vectors at each period form a Markov chain.展开更多
文摘采用资产组合损失变量描述风险,并基于损失分布的α-(上)分位数给出"期望巨额损失值"ES(expected shortfall)和"条件风险价值"CVaR(conditional value at risk)的定义。在一般损失分布下,通过直接计算说明了任一资产组合损失变量的"期望巨额损失值"ES的定义与α-(上)分位数的选取无关;而且也通过直接计算证明了ES与CVaR两者的等价关系;进而通过构造出ES的概率测度族表示证明了ES是一致性风险度量方法。此外,还就相关问题,例如分位数、一致性风险度量、尾部条件期望TCE等,给出了一些有价值的注记。
基金This research was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 70971023 and 71001089 and in part by the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province under Grant No. Y60860040.
文摘This paper studies multi-period risk management problems by presenting a dynamic risk measure. This risk measure is the sum of conditional value-at-risk of each period. The authors model it by Markov decision processes and derive its optimality equation. This equation is further transformed equivalently to an analytically tractable one. The authors then use the model and its results to a multi-period portfolio optimization when the return rate vectors at each period form a Markov chain.
