Spatiotemporal features and vertical structures of four types of mesoscale eddies in the Kuroshio Extension region

Except for conventional mesoscale eddies,there are also abundant warm cyclonic eddies(WCEs)and cold anticyclonic eddies(CAEs)in the global ocean.Based on the global mesoscale eddy trajectory atlas product,satellite altimetric and remote sensing datasets,and three-dimensional temperature/salinity dataset,spatiotemporal features of WCEs and CAEs are compared with traditional cold cyclonic eddies and warm anticyclonic eddies in the Kuroshio Extension(KE;28°−43°N,140°−170°E)region.Characteristics of abnormal eddies like radius,amplitude,eddy kinetic energy,and proportion in all eddies behave in significant asymmetry on the north and south sides of the KE jet.Unlike eddies in the general sense,temporal feature analysis reveals that it is more favorable to the formation and maintenance of WCEs and CAEs in summer and autumn,while winter is the opposite.The spatiotemporal variation of abnormal eddies is likely because the marine environment varying with time and space.Statistically,proportion of abnormal eddies increases rapidly in decaying stage during the whole eddy lifespan,resulting in smaller average radius,amplitude,sea surface temperature anomaly and sea surface height anomaly compared to normal ones.The three-dimensional composite structures for four types of eddies expose that the difference between abnormal and conventional eddies is not just limited to the sea surface,but also exists within the water below the sea surface.Vertical structures also indicate that the anomalous temperature signal is confined in the water from the sea surface to layers at about 30 m in the KE region.

Seasonal variation of mesoscale eddy intensity in the global ocean

Mesoscale eddies are a prominent oceanic phenomenon that plays an important role in oceanic mass transport and energy conversion.Characterizing by rotational speed,the eddy intensity is one of the most fundamental properties of an eddy.However,the seasonal spatiotemporal variation in eddy intensity has not been examined from a global ocean perspective.In this study,we unveil the seasonal spatiotemporal characteristics of eddy intensity in the global ocean by using the latest satellite-altimetry-derived eddy trajectory data set.The results suggest that the eddy intensity has a distinct seasonal variation,reaching a peak in spring while attaining a minimum in autumn in the Northern Hemisphere and the opposite in the Southern Hemisphere.The seasonal variation of eddy intensity is more intense in the tropical-subtropical transition zones within latitudinal bands between 15°and 30°in the western Pacific Ocean,the northwestern Atlantic Ocean,and the eastern Indian Ocean because baroclinic instability in these areas changes sharply.Further analysis found that the seasonal variation of baroclinic instability precedes the eddy intensity by a phase of 2–3 months due to the initial perturbations needing time to grow into mesoscale eddies.

Understanding Simulated Causes of Damaging Surface Winds in a Derecho-Producing Mesoscale Convective System near the East China Coast Based on Convection-Permitting Simulations

A mesoscale convective system(MCS) occurred over the East China coastal provinces and the East China Sea on 30April 2021, producing damaging surface winds near the coastal city Nantong with observed speeds reaching 45 m s^(–1). A simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with a 1.5-km grid spacing generally reproduces the development and subsequent organization of this convective system into an MCS, with an eastward protruding bow segment over the sea. In the simulation, an east-west-oriented high wind swath is generated behind the gust front of the MCS. Descending dry rear-to-front inflows behind the bow and trailing gust front are found to feed the downdrafts in the main precipitation regions. The inflows help to establish spreading cold outflows and enhance the downdrafts through evaporative cooling. Meanwhile, front-to-rear inflows from the south are present, associated with severely rearward-tilted updrafts initially forming over the gust front. Such inflows descend behind(north of) the gust front, significantly enhancing downdrafts and near-surface winds within the cold pool. Consistently, calculated trajectories show that these parcels that contribute to the derecho originate primarily from the region ahead(south) of the east-west-oriented gust front, and dry southwesterly flows in the low-to-middle levels contribute to strong downdrafts within the MCS. Moreover, momentum budget analyses reveal that a large westward-directed horizontal pressure gradient force within the simulated cold pool produced rapid flow acceleration towards Nantong. The analyses enrich the understanding of damaging wind characteristics over coastal East China and will prove helpful to operational forecasters.

Quantitative analysis and prediction of the sound field convergence zone in mesoscale eddy environment based on data mining methods

The mesoscale eddy(ME)has a significant influence on the convergence effect in deep-sea acoustic propagation.This paper use statistical approaches to express quantitative relationships between the ME conditions and convergence zone(CZ)characteristics.Based on the Gaussian vortex model,we construct various sound propagation scenarios under different eddy conditions,and carry out sound propagation experiments to obtain simulation samples.With a large number of samples,we first adopt the unified regression to set up analytic relationships between eddy conditions and CZ parameters.The sensitivity of eddy indicators to the CZ is quantitatively analyzed.Then,we adopt the machine learning(ML)algorithms to establish prediction models of CZ parameters by exploring the nonlinear relationships between multiple ME indicators and CZ parameters.Through the research,we can express the influence of ME on the CZ quantitatively,and achieve the rapid prediction of CZ parameters in ocean eddies.The prediction accuracy(R)of the CZ distance(mean R:0.9815)is obviously better than that of the CZ width(mean R:0.8728).Among the three ML algorithms,Gradient Boosting Decision Tree has the best prediction ability(root mean square error(RMSE):0.136),followed by Random Forest(RMSE:0.441)and Extreme Learning Machine(RMSE:0.518).

The Predictability Limit of Oceanic Mesoscale Eddy Tracks in the South China Sea

Employing the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) technique, this study assesses the quantitative predictability limit of oceanic mesoscale eddy (OME) tracks utilizing three eddy datasets for both annual and seasonal means. Our findings reveal a discernible predictability limit of approximately 39 days for cyclonic eddies (CEs) and 44 days for anticyclonic eddies (AEs) within the South China Sea (SCS). The predictability limit is related to the OME properties and seasons. The long-lived, large-amplitude, and large-radius OMEs tend to have a higher predictability limit. The predictability limit of AE (CE) tracks is highest in autumn (winter) with 52 (53) days and lowest in spring (summer) with 40 (30) days. The spatial distribution of the predictability limit of OME tracks also has seasonal variations, further finding that the area of higher predictability limits often overlaps with periodic OMEs. Additionally, the predictability limit of periodic OME tracks is about 49 days for both CEs and AEs, which is 5-10 days higher than the mean values. Usually, in the SCS, OMEs characterized by high predictability limit values exhibit more extended and smoother trajectories and often move along the northern slope of the SCS.

Recognition of Organizational Morphology of Mesoscale Convective Systems Using Himawari-8 Observations

The onset,evolution,and propagation processes of convective cells can be reflected by the organizational morphology of mesoscale convective systems(MCSs),which are key factors in determining the potential for heavy precipitation.This paper proposed a method for objectively classifying and segmenting MCSs using geosynchronous satellite observations.Validation of the product relative to the classification in radar composite reflectivity imagery indicates that the algorithm offers skill for discriminating between convective and stratiform areas and matched 65%of convective area identifications in radar imagery with a false alarm rate of 39%and an accuracy of 94%.A quantitative evaluation of the similarity between the structures of 50 MCSs randomly obtained from satellite and radar observations shows that the similarity was as high as 60%.For further testing,the organizational modes of the MCS that caused the heavy precipitation in Northwest China on August 21,2016(hereinafter known as the“0821”rainstorm)were identified.It was found that the MCS,accompanied by the“0821”rainstorm,successively exhibited modes of the isolated cell,squall line with parallel stratiform(PS)rain,and non-linear system during its life cycle.Among them,the PS mode might have played a key role in causing this flooding.These findings are in line with previous studies.

Mesoscale and Microphysical Characteristics of a Double Rain Belt Event in South China on May 10–13,2022

A second rain belt sometimes occurs ahead of a frontal rain belt in the warm sector over coastal South China,leading to heavy precipitation.We examined the differences in the mesoscale characteristics and microphysics of the frontal and warm sector rain belts that occurred in South China on May 10–13,2022.The southern rain belt occurred in an environment with favorable mesoscale conditions but weak large-scale forcing.In contrast,the northern rain belt was related to low-level horizontal shear and the surface-level front.The interaction between the enhanced southeasterly winds and the rainfall-induced cold pool promoted the persistent growth of convection along the southern rain belt.The convective cell propagated east over the coastal area,where there was a large temperature gradient.The bow-shaped echo in this region may be closely related to the rear-inflow jet.By contrast,the initial convection of the northern rain belt was triggered along the front and the region of low-level horizontal shear,with mesoscale interactions between the enhanced warm-moist southeasterly airflow and the cold dome associated with the earlier rain.The terrain blocked the movement of the cold pool,resulting in the stagnation of the frontal convective cell at an early stage.Subsequently,a meso-γ-scale vortex formed during the rapid movement of the convective cell,corresponding to an enhancement of precipitation.The representative raindrop spectra for the southern rain belt were characterized by a greater number and higher density of raindrops than the northern rain belt,even though both resulted in comparable hourly rainfalls.These results help us better understand the characteristics of double rain belts over South China.

Modeling of ocean mesoscale eddy and its application in the underwater acoustic propagation

Aiming at the influence of ocean mesoscale eddy on underwater acoustic propagation, a theoretical computation model of ocean mesoscale eddy was established based on the in-situ hydrographic data in the sea area of ocean mesoscale eddy. An underwater acoustic modeI-MMPE was used to simulate the acoustic propagation under the influence of different types, different intensities and positions of eddies, and different frequencies and depths of sources. It is found that warm-core eddy can make the convergence zone ＂move back＂ and the width of it increases, while cold-core eddy can make the convergence zone ＂move forward＂ and the width of it decreases. The bigger the intensity of eddy, the more notable the ＂forward ＂or ＂back ＂effect. Sound source located depths and source frequencies can change the acoustic propagation characteristics in the eddy area.

Study on a Mesoscale Convective Vortex Causing Heavy Rainfall during the Mei-yu Season in 2003

The strong heavy rainfall on 3–5 July 2003 causing the severe flooding in Huaihe River basin （HRB）, China is studied. It is noted that there are sometimes mesoscale convective vortex （MCV） in East Asia during the mei-yu season. Simulation results from the ARPS （Advanced Regional Prediction） data analysis system （ADAS） and WRF model were used to study the development of the mesoscale convective system （MCS） and mesoscale convective vortex （MCV）. It is confirmed that the MCV formed during the development of a previous severe MCS. A closed vortex circulation can be found below 600 hPa with a vorticity maximum in the middle troposphere. The evolution process of the MCV can be divided into three stages： initiation, maturation, and dissipation. During the mature stage of the MCV, a downdraft occurred in the center of the MCV and new convection developed in southeast of the MCV. The convergence and the tilting in the lower troposphere convergence and vertical advection in the middle troposphere were the main vorticity sources in the MCV initiation stage. Finally, a conceptual model between the mei-yu front and the embedded MCS and MCV is proposed. The mei-yu front was the background condition for the development of the MCS and MCV. A low level jet （LLJ） transported moisture and the weak cold air invasion via a trough aloft in the middle troposphere and triggering the severe convection. Furthermore, the intensified jet was able to result in the initiation of new ＂secondary＂ areas of convection in the eastern part of the MCV.

Vorticity Budget Investigation of a Simulated Long-Lived Mesoscale Vortex in South China

A vorticity budget investigation is performed using the output data from a numerical simulation of a typical MCV (mesoscale convectively generated votex) case in South China. Results suggest that the divergence caused by convection in the low troposphere is the main producer of positive vorticity, while vertical vorticity transferred by the tilting term from the horizontal vorticity compensates the upward output of cyclonic vorticity. Scale analyses of the vorticity equation suggest that the advection of planetary vorticity can be neglected owing to the low latitude, which is di?erent from the larger scale systems in high latitude areas. In addition, the distribution of relative vorticity tendency on pressure level is not uniform. A vortex will move along the vector from the negative to the positive vorticity tendency region. The mechanism of the phenomenon—that nearly all of the convectively ascending region is located southward/southeastward of the vortex center—is also discussed. Convergence with regard to latent heat release would be in favor of the spin-up of meso-vortex, however, the horizontal vorticity caused by wind shear is tilted by vertical motion due to convection. Consequently, the negative and positive vorticity tendencies are located symmetrically about the convective center, which suggests that the vortex southward movement is dynamically driven by convection.

A Review of Major Progresses in Mesoscale Dynamic Research in China since 1999

Mesoscale research conducted by Chinese meteorologists during the past four years is reviewed. Advances in theoretical studies include (a) mesoscale quasi-balanced and semi-balanced dynamics, derived through scale analysis and the perturbation method which are suitable for describing mesoscale vortices; (b) subcritical instability and vortex-sheet instability; (c) frontal adjustment mechanism and the effect of topography on frontgenesis; and (d) slantwise vorticity development theories, the slantwise vortex equation, and moist potential vorticity (MPV) anomalies with precipitation-related heat and mass sinks and MPV impermeability theorem. Prom the MPV conservation viewpoint, the transformation mechanism between different scale weather systems is analyzed. Based on the data analysis, a new dew-point front near the periphery of the West Pacific subtropical high is identified. In the light of MPV theory and Q-vector theory, some events associated with torrential rain systems and severe storms are analyzed and diagnosed. Progress in mesoscale numerical simulation has been made in the development of meso-α, meso-β vortices, meso-γ-scale downbursts and precipitation produced by deep convective systems with MM5 and other mesoscale models.

Mesoscale eddies in the South China Sea and their impact on temperature profiles

Some life history statistics of the mesoscale eddies of the South China Sea (SCS) derived from altimetry data will be further discussed according their different formation periods. A total of three ATLAS (autonomous temperature line acquisition system)mooring buoys data will be analyzed to discuss eddies' impact on temperature profiles.They identify that the intraseasonal variation of SCS thermocline is partly controlled by mesoscale eddies.

Influence of mesoscale eddies on primary production in the South China Sea during spring inter-monsoon period

Mesoscale eddies have been suggested to have an impact on biological carbon fixation in the South China Sea （SCS）. However, their overall contribution to primary production during the spring inter-monsoon pe riod is still unknown. Based on large-scale biological and environmental in situ observations and synchro nous remote sensing data, the distribution patterns of phytoplankton biomass and the primary production, and the role of mesoscale eddies in regulating primary production in different eddy-controlled waters were investigated. The results suggested that the surface chlorophyll a concentrations and water column inte grated primary production （IPP） are significantly higher in cyclonic eddies and lower in the anticyclonic eddies as compared to that in non-eddy waters. Although eddies could affect various environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light availability, nutrient supply is suggested to be the most important one through which mesoscale eddies regulated the distribution patterns of phytoplankton biomass and pri mary production. The estimated IPP in cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies are about 29.5% higher and 16.6% lower than the total average in the whole study area, respectively, indicating that the promotion effect of mesoscale cold eddies on the primary production was much stronger than the inhibition effect of the warm eddies per unit area. Overall, mesoscale eddies are crucial physical processes that affect the biological car bon fixation and the distribution pattern of primary production in the SCS open sea, especially during the spring inter-monsoon period.

Mesoscale Predictability of Mei-yu Heavy Rainfall

Recently reported results indicate that small amplitude and small scale initial errors grow rapidly and subsequently contaminate short-term deterministic mesoscale forecasts. This rapid error growth is dependent on not only moist convection but also the flow regime. In this study, the mesoscale predictability and error growth of mei-yu heavy rainfall is investigated by simulating a particular precipitation event along the mei-yu front on 4- 6 July 2003 in eastern China. Due to the multi-scale character of the mei-yu front and scale interactions, the error growth of mei-yu heavy rainfall forecasts is markedly different from that in middle-latitude moist baroclinic systems. The optimal growth of the errors has a relatively wide spectrum, though it gradually migrates with time from small scale to mesoscale. During the whole period of this heavy rainfall event, the error growth has three different stages, which similar to the evolution of 6-hour accumulated precipitation. Multi-step error growth manifests as an increase of the amplitude of errors, the horizontal scale of the errors, or both. The vertical profile of forecast errors in the developing convective instability and the moist physics convective system indicates two peaks, which correspond with inside the mei-yu front, and related to moist The error growth for the mei-yu heavy rainfall is concentrated convective instability and scale interaction.

Complexity at Mesoscales:A Common Challenge in Developing Artificial Intelligence

Exploring the physical mechanisms of complex systems and making effective use of them are the keys to dealing with the complexity of the world.The emergence of big data and the enhancement of computing power,in conjunction with the improvement of optimization algorithms,are leading to the development of artificial intelligence(AI)driven by deep learning.However,deep learning fails to reveal the underlying logic and physical connotations of the problems being solved.Mesoscience provides a concept to understand the mechanism of the spatiotemporal multiscale structure of complex systems,and its capability for analyzing complex problems has been validated in different fields.This paper proposes a research paradigm for AI,which introduces the analytical principles of mesoscience into the design of deep learning models.This is done to address the fundamental problem of deep learning models detaching the physical prototype from the problem being solved;the purpose is to promote the sustainable development of AI.

A statistical analysis of mesoscale eddies in the Bay of Bengal from 22–year altimetry data

Eddy properties in the Bay of Bengal are studied from 22 a archiving, validation and interpretation of satellite oceanographic（AVISO） data using a sea level anomaly（SLA）-based eddy identification. A geographical distribution and an eddy polarity, an eddy lifetime and propagation distances, eddy origins and terminations,eddy propagation directions and trajectories, eddy kinetic properties, the evolution of eddy properties,seasonal and interannual variabilities of eddy activities are analyzed in this area. Eddies exist principally in the western Bay of Bengal and most of them propagate westward. The polarity distribution of eddies shows cyclones prefer to occur in the northwest and south of the Bay of Bengal, while anticyclones mainly occur in the east of the bay. Five hundred and sixty-five cyclones and 389 anticyclones with the lifetime that exceeds 30 d are detected during the 22 a period, and there is a preference for the cyclones for all lifetime and propagation distances. The kinetic properties of all observed eddies show the average amplitude of the cyclones is larger than that of the anticyclones, whereas that is opposite for average radius, and their average velocities are basically the same. Moreover, the evolution of eddies properties reveals that the eddies with a long lifetime that exceeds 90 d have a significant double-stage feature of the former 50 d growth period and the dying period after 50 d. For the seasonal variability of the eddies, the cyclones occur more often in spring while the anticyclones occur more often in summer. The analysis of long-lived eddy seasonal distributions shows that there is the obvious seasonal variation of the eddy activities in the Bay of Bengal. The interannual variability of an eddy number shows an obvious negative correlation with the EKE variation.

A Diagnostic Study of Heavy Rainfall in Karachi Due to Merging of a Mesoscale Low and a Diffused Tropical Depression during South Asian Summer Monsoon

This paper presents the results of a diagnostic study of a typical case of very heavy rainfall during the South Asian summer monsoon when a mesoscale low in a desert climate merged with a diffused tropical depression. The former low was located over Pakistan's desert region and the latter depression originated over the Bay of Bengal. Surface and NCEP reanalysis data supported by satellite and radar images were incorporated in the diagnosis. The relationship between the heavy precipitation process and large-scale circulations such as monsoon trough, subtropical high, westerly jet, low level jet and water vapor transport were investigated to further understand the mechanism of this peculiar interaction. It was found that: (1) the mesoscale low developed as a result of cold air advection aloft from northern latitudes and strong convection over the region of humidity convergence on 24 July 2003 over the Indian Rajistan area. (2) On the same day, a low that formed over the Bay of Bengal was transformed into a monsoon depression and moved westward to the mesoscale low which existed over southwest India and the adjoining southeastern parts of Pakistan. (3) Initially, the mesoscale low received moisture supply from both the Bay of Bengal as well as the Arabian Sea, whereas the Bay of Bengal maintained the continuous supply of moisture to the monsoon depression. (4) After the depression crossed central India, the Bay's moisture supply was cut off and the Arabian Sea became the-only source of moisture to both the closely located systems. On 27 July, both of the systems merged together and the merger resulted in a heavy downpour in the Karachi metropolitan and in its surroundings. (5) With the intensification as well as the southeastward extension of the subtropical high and the shift of the monsoon trough axis from southwest-west to northeast-east, the monsoon depression moved southwestward. In this situation, there existed a very favourable condition for a merger of the two systems in the presence of cross-latitude influence. (6) A number of convective cloud clusters were developed and organized in the mesoscale low. Probably, interactions existed among the multi-scale systems.

Impact of 4DVAR Assimilation of Rainfall Data on the Simulation of Mesoscale Precipitation Systems in a Mei-yu Heavy Rainfall Event

The multi-scale weather systems associated with a mei-yu front and the corresponding heavy precipitation during a particular heavy rainfall event that occurred on 4 5 July 2003 in east China were successfully simulated through rainfall assimilation using the PSU/NCAR non-hydrostatic, mesoscale, numerical model （MM5） and its four-dimensional, variational, data assimilation （4DVAR） system. For this case, the improvement of the process via the 4DVAR rainfall assimilation into the simulation of mesoscale precipitation systems is investigated. With the rainfall assimilation, the convection is triggered at the right location and time, and the evolution and spatial distribution of the mesoscale convective systems （MCSs） are also more correctly simulated. Through the interactions between MCSs and the weather systems at different scales, including the low-level jet and mei-yu front, the simulation of the entire mei-yu weather system is significantly improved, both during the data assimilation window and the subsequent 12-h period. The results suggest that the rainfall assimilation first provides positive impact at the convective scale and the influences are then propagated upscale to the meso- and sub-synoptic scales. Through a set of sensitive experiments designed to evaluate the impact of different initial variables on the simulation of mei-yu heavy rainfall, it was found that the moisture field and meridional wind had the strongest effect during the convection initialization stage, however, after the convection was fully triggered, all of the variables at the initial condition seemed to have comparable importance.

Mesoscale Vortex Generation and Merging Process: A Case Study Associated with a Post-Landfall Tropical Depression

An observational analysis of satellite blackbody temperature （TBB） data and radar images suggests that the mesoscale vortex generation and merging process appeared to be essential for a tropical-depression-related heavy rain event in Shanghai, China. A numerical simulation reproduced the observed mesoscale vortex generation and merging process and the corresponding rain pattern, and then the model outputs were used to study the related dynamics through diagnosing the potential vorticity （PV） equation. The tropical depression （TD） was found to weaken first at lower levels and then at upper levels due to negative horizontal PV advection and diabatic heating effects. The meso-vortices developed gradually, also from the lower to the upper levels, as a result of positive horizontal PV advection and diabatic heating effects in the downshear left quadrant of the TD. One of these newly-generated vortices, V1, replaced the TD ultimately, while the other two, V2 and V3, merged due to the horizontal PV advection process. Together with the redevelopment of V1, the merging of V2 and V3 triggered the very heavy rain in Shanghai.

Evolution of the Total Lightning Activity in a Leading-Line and Trailing Stratiform Mesoscale Convective System over Beijing

Data from the Beijing SAFIR 3000 lightning detection system and Doppler radar provided some insights into the three-dimensional lightning structure and evolution of a leading-line and trailing-stratiform （LLTS） mesoscale convective system （MCS） over Beijing on 31 July 2007. Most of the lightning in the LLTS-MCS was intracloud （IC） lightning, while the mean ratio of positive cloud-to-ground （＋CG） lightning to –CG lightning was 1：4, which was higher than the average value from previous studies. The majority of CG lightning occurred in the convective region of the radar echo, particularly at the leading edge of the front. Little IC lightning and little ＋CG lightning occurred in the stratiform region. The distribution of the CG lightning indicated that the storm had a tilted dipole structure given the wind shear or the tripole charge structure. During the storm’s development, most of the IC lightning occurred at an altitude of ～9.5 km; the lightning rate reached its maximum at 10.5 km, the altitude of IC lightning in the mature stage of the storm. When the thunderstorm began to dissipate, the altitude of the IC lightning decreased gradually. The spatial distribution of lightning was well correlated with the rainfall on the ground, although the peak value of rainfall appeared 75 min later than the peak lightning rate.