Mortality time series display time-varying volatility. The utility of statistical estimators from the financial time-series paradigm, which account for this characteristic, has not been addressed for high-frequency mo...Mortality time series display time-varying volatility. The utility of statistical estimators from the financial time-series paradigm, which account for this characteristic, has not been addressed for high-frequency mortality series. Using daily mean-mortality series of an exemplar intensive care unit (ICU) from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database, joint estimation of a mean and conditional variance (volatility) model for a stationary series was undertaken via univariate autoregressive moving average (ARMA, lags (p, q)), GARCH (Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity, lags (p, q)). The temporal dynamics of the conditional variance and correlations of multiple provider series, from rural/ regional, metropolitan, tertiary and private ICUs, were estimated utilising multivariate GARCH models. For the stationary first differenced series, an asymmetric power GARCH model (lags (1, 1)) with t distribution (degrees-of- freedom, 11.6) and ARMA (7,0) for the mean-model, was the best-fitting. The four multivariate component series demonstrated varying trend mortality decline and persistent autocorrelation. Within each MGARCH series no model specification dominated. The conditional correlations were surprisingly low (<0.1) between tertiary series and substantial (0.4 - 0.6) between rural-regional and private series. The conditional-variances of both the univariate and multivariate series demonstrated a slow rate of time decline from periods of early volatility and volatility spikes.展开更多
The objective of this 2-yr field trial, with a central composite rotatable design, was to assess and quantify the effects of separation of nitrogen fertilizer and water with alternating furrow irrigation （SNWAFI） pr...The objective of this 2-yr field trial, with a central composite rotatable design, was to assess and quantify the effects of separation of nitrogen fertilizer and water with alternating furrow irrigation （SNWAFI） practices on soil ammonia （NH3） emission during the summer maize （Zea mays L.） growing season. Ammonia volatilization after N sidedress and irrigation ranged from 4.8 to 17.0 kg N ha-1 and 6.2 to 20.6 kg N hal, respectively, in 2008 and 2009. The lower N input contributed to lower NH3 loss but lower yield, whereas the higher N input induced higher yield as well as higher NH3 loss. Ammonia intensity （NH3 volatilization per crop yield） after N sidedress and irrigation was 1.2-3.0 kg NH3-N t-1 yield in 2008 and 1.1-3.2 kg NH3-N t1 yield in 2009. The predicted minimum NH3 intensity in 2008 was 1.6 kg NH3-N fl yield and was obtained with the combined application of 127 kg N ha^-1 and 108 mm irrigation water. In 2009, the predicted minimum NH3 intensity was 1.3 kg NH3-N t-j yield and was obtained with the combined application of 101 kg N ha-1 and 83 mm irrigation water. We conclude that SNWAFI practices with optimum rates of water and fertilizer can significantly reduce soil NH3 intensity and maintain yield. It was more beneficial for sustainable farming strategies to minimize the NH3 intensity rather than reduce absolute NH3 emissions alone.展开更多
High intensity γ-ray source can be obtained through resonance reaction induced by protons. In this work, the possibility of using such high intensity MeV-range γ-ray source to transmute nuclear waste is investigated...High intensity γ-ray source can be obtained through resonance reaction induced by protons. In this work, the possibility of using such high intensity MeV-range γ-ray source to transmute nuclear waste is investigated through Mont Carlo simulation.197 Au(γ, n)196Au experiment is performed to obtain the transmutation rate and compared with the simulation result. If the current of the proton beam is 10 mA at the resonance energy of 441 keV, with the γ photons emitted from7 Li(p, γ)8 Be, then the corresponding transmutation yield for129I in 2π direction can reach 9.4 × 109 per hour. The result is compared with that of LCS γ-ray source.展开更多
Mycoflora of atmospheric air and dust samples collected from air conditioning systems in 12 of each I.C.U. （intensive care units） and O.R. （operation rooms） were tested using settle and dilution plate methods on f...Mycoflora of atmospheric air and dust samples collected from air conditioning systems in 12 of each I.C.U. （intensive care units） and O.R. （operation rooms） were tested using settle and dilution plate methods on four types of agar media and incubated at 25℃. Forty-five fungal species representing 23 genera were isolated and identified. The most prevalent genera recorded were Cladosporium, Aspergillus, Penicillium and Fusarium. The total colony forming units of airborne fungi recovered in I.C.U. and O.R. ranged between 31.13-49.61 colonies/m3 on the four types of media usedl The fungal total catch of the dust samples collected from the air conditioning system filters in I.C.U. and O.R. were ranged from 65.5-170 colonies/mg dust. Since, the interest to replace synthetic xenobiotics by natural compounds with low environmental persistence and biodegradable to control such airborne fungal contaminants is needed. In this respect, essential oils showed to possess a broad spectrum of antifungal activity. Fungal static ability of six oils was tested on 30 different fungal isolates. Vapors of common thyme oil exhibited the strongest inhibitory effects on the tested isolates, whereas the headspace vapors of blue gum and ginger had no inhibitory effects on the tested fungal isolates. These data revealed that the air conditioning systems may be an important source of contamination in I.C.U. and O.R. of Assiut university hospitals. Thus, patients may be in risk of being exposed to contaminated atmospheric air by opportunistic fungi and the use of essential oils as an alternative option to control hospital wards from fungal contaminants needs further studies.展开更多
文摘Mortality time series display time-varying volatility. The utility of statistical estimators from the financial time-series paradigm, which account for this characteristic, has not been addressed for high-frequency mortality series. Using daily mean-mortality series of an exemplar intensive care unit (ICU) from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database, joint estimation of a mean and conditional variance (volatility) model for a stationary series was undertaken via univariate autoregressive moving average (ARMA, lags (p, q)), GARCH (Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity, lags (p, q)). The temporal dynamics of the conditional variance and correlations of multiple provider series, from rural/ regional, metropolitan, tertiary and private ICUs, were estimated utilising multivariate GARCH models. For the stationary first differenced series, an asymmetric power GARCH model (lags (1, 1)) with t distribution (degrees-of- freedom, 11.6) and ARMA (7,0) for the mean-model, was the best-fitting. The four multivariate component series demonstrated varying trend mortality decline and persistent autocorrelation. Within each MGARCH series no model specification dominated. The conditional correlations were surprisingly low (<0.1) between tertiary series and substantial (0.4 - 0.6) between rural-regional and private series. The conditional-variances of both the univariate and multivariate series demonstrated a slow rate of time decline from periods of early volatility and volatility spikes.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Fundation of China (30571085, 2006)the Project for Innovative Teams (2010) at Northwest A&F University, China
文摘The objective of this 2-yr field trial, with a central composite rotatable design, was to assess and quantify the effects of separation of nitrogen fertilizer and water with alternating furrow irrigation （SNWAFI） practices on soil ammonia （NH3） emission during the summer maize （Zea mays L.） growing season. Ammonia volatilization after N sidedress and irrigation ranged from 4.8 to 17.0 kg N ha-1 and 6.2 to 20.6 kg N hal, respectively, in 2008 and 2009. The lower N input contributed to lower NH3 loss but lower yield, whereas the higher N input induced higher yield as well as higher NH3 loss. Ammonia intensity （NH3 volatilization per crop yield） after N sidedress and irrigation was 1.2-3.0 kg NH3-N t-1 yield in 2008 and 1.1-3.2 kg NH3-N t1 yield in 2009. The predicted minimum NH3 intensity in 2008 was 1.6 kg NH3-N fl yield and was obtained with the combined application of 127 kg N ha^-1 and 108 mm irrigation water. In 2009, the predicted minimum NH3 intensity was 1.3 kg NH3-N t-j yield and was obtained with the combined application of 101 kg N ha-1 and 83 mm irrigation water. We conclude that SNWAFI practices with optimum rates of water and fertilizer can significantly reduce soil NH3 intensity and maintain yield. It was more beneficial for sustainable farming strategies to minimize the NH3 intensity rather than reduce absolute NH3 emissions alone.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11655003)
文摘High intensity γ-ray source can be obtained through resonance reaction induced by protons. In this work, the possibility of using such high intensity MeV-range γ-ray source to transmute nuclear waste is investigated through Mont Carlo simulation.197 Au(γ, n)196Au experiment is performed to obtain the transmutation rate and compared with the simulation result. If the current of the proton beam is 10 mA at the resonance energy of 441 keV, with the γ photons emitted from7 Li(p, γ)8 Be, then the corresponding transmutation yield for129I in 2π direction can reach 9.4 × 109 per hour. The result is compared with that of LCS γ-ray source.
文摘Mycoflora of atmospheric air and dust samples collected from air conditioning systems in 12 of each I.C.U. （intensive care units） and O.R. （operation rooms） were tested using settle and dilution plate methods on four types of agar media and incubated at 25℃. Forty-five fungal species representing 23 genera were isolated and identified. The most prevalent genera recorded were Cladosporium, Aspergillus, Penicillium and Fusarium. The total colony forming units of airborne fungi recovered in I.C.U. and O.R. ranged between 31.13-49.61 colonies/m3 on the four types of media usedl The fungal total catch of the dust samples collected from the air conditioning system filters in I.C.U. and O.R. were ranged from 65.5-170 colonies/mg dust. Since, the interest to replace synthetic xenobiotics by natural compounds with low environmental persistence and biodegradable to control such airborne fungal contaminants is needed. In this respect, essential oils showed to possess a broad spectrum of antifungal activity. Fungal static ability of six oils was tested on 30 different fungal isolates. Vapors of common thyme oil exhibited the strongest inhibitory effects on the tested isolates, whereas the headspace vapors of blue gum and ginger had no inhibitory effects on the tested fungal isolates. These data revealed that the air conditioning systems may be an important source of contamination in I.C.U. and O.R. of Assiut university hospitals. Thus, patients may be in risk of being exposed to contaminated atmospheric air by opportunistic fungi and the use of essential oils as an alternative option to control hospital wards from fungal contaminants needs further studies.
