新兴工业化国家和地区收入分配模式及机理对我国的启示

中国与其他新兴工业化国家和地区的国情与发展道路有着相似之处。这一类型国家及其典型代表在与我国相近发展阶段的收入分配制度形成了具有正反两方面政策启示意义的"东亚"模式和"拉美化"国家模式。应以我国现阶段国情为基础,吸取教训,避免重蹈覆辙,并将各方面经验按内在逻辑形成能产生联动效应的配套措施,坚定信心,继续深化收入分配制度领域的改革。

Effects of spectral nudging on the 2010 East Asia summer monsoon using WRF model

The performance of spectral nudging in an investigation of the 2010 East Asia summer monsoon was assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, forced by 1-degree NCEP Global Final Analysis (FNL). Two pairs of experiments were made, spectral nudging (SP) and non-spectral nudging (NOSP), with five members in each group. The members were distinguished by different initial times, and the analysis was based on the ensemble mean of the two simulation pairs. The SP was able to constrain error growth in large-scale circulation in upper-level, during simulation, and generate realistic regional scale patterns. The main focus was the model ability to simulate precipitation. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product was used for precipitation verification. Mean precipitation magnitude was generally overestimated by WRF. Nevertheless, SP simulations suppressed overestimation relative to the NOSP experiments. Compared to TRMM, SP also improved model simulation of precipitation in spatial and temporal distributions, with the ability to reproduce movement of rainbands. However, extreme precipitation events were suppressed in the SP simulations.

Relationships between the Oxygen Isotopes in East Asian Stalagmites and Large-Scale Atmospheric and Oceanic Modes

The stalagmite δ18O record is known to be associated with the climate, but the specifics of the relationship remain unclear. It may not represent variation in air temperature or precipitation, but instead reflect integral changes of monsoon circulation, especially water vapor sources(the so-called "circulation effect"). Since large-scale atmospheric-oceanic modes such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) exert significant effects on Asian monsoon, in this paper the authors investigate the relationships of the East Asian stalagmite δ18O record with these modes. The last three centuries form the focus of our study, for which the authors use reconstructed as well as instrumental data. Considering the impacts of human activity, our analysis is conducted with respect to two periods—the pre- and post-industrial periods. The results show significant lead-lag connections: a positive correlation peaks when the PDO leads East Asian stalagmite δ18O by 3 years, which is persistent over the past 300 years; while the relationships of the AMO and NAO with the East Asian stalagmite δ18O record show significant differences in the post-industrial relative to the pre-industrial period. This implies that the East Asian stalagmite δ18O record may primarily reflect the PDO signal.

Evaluation of the Community Microwave Emission Model Coupled with the Community Land Model over East Asia

The Community Microwave Emission Model (CMEM) developed by the European Centre for Me-dium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) can provide a link between surface states and satellite observations and simulate the passive microwave brightness temperature of the surface at low frequencies (from 1 GHz to 20 GHz).This study evaluated the performance of the CMEM cou-pled with the Community Land Model (CLM) (CMEM-CLM) using C-band (6.9 GHz) microwave brightness temperatures from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) over East Asia.Preliminary results support the argument that the simulated brightness temperatures of CMEM-CLM from July 2005 to June 2010 are comparable to AMSR-E observational data.CMEM-CLM performed better for vertical polarization,for which the root mean square error was approximately 15 K,compared to over 30 K for horizontal polarization.An evaluation performed over seven sub-regions in China indicated that CMEM-CLM was able to capture the temporal evolution of C-band brightness temperatures well,and the best correlation with AMSR-E appeared over western Northwest China (over 0.9 for vertical polarization).However,larger biases were found over southern North China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

The climatology and interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoonsimulated by a weakly coupled data assimilation system

With the motivation to improve the simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) in coupled climate models, oceanic data assimilation(DA) was used in CAS-ESM-C(Chinese Academy of Sciences–Earth System Model–Climate Component) in this study. Observed sea surface temperature was assimilated into CAS-ESM-C. The climatology and interannual variability of the EASM simulated in CAS-ESM-C with DA were compared with a traditional AMIP-type run.Results showed that the climatological spatial pattern and annual cycle of precipitation in the western North Paci?c, and the ENSO-related and EASM-related EASM circulation and precipitation, were largely improved. As shown in this study, air–sea coupling is important for EASM simulation. In addition, oceanic DA synchronizes the coupled model with the real world without breaking the air–sea coupling process. These two successful factors make the assimilation experiment a more reasonable experimental design than traditional AMIP-type simulations.

A Synoptic Snapshot of the East Cape Eddy(ECE)

A synoptic snapshot in this study is made for the East Cape Eddy (ECE) basedon the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) P14C Hydrographic Section and Shipboard ADCPvelocity vector data collected in September 1992. The ECE is an anticyclonic eddy, barotropicallystructured and centered at 33.64°S and 176.21°E, with warm and salinous-cored subsurface water.The radius of the eddy is of the order O (110 km) and the maximum circumferential velocity is O (40cm s^(-1)); as a result, the relative vorticity is estimated to be O (7 x 10^(-6)s^(-1)). Due to theexistence of the ECE, the mixed layer north of New Zealand becomes deeper, reaching a depth of 300m in the austral winter. The ECE plays an important role in the formation and distribution of theSubtropical Mode Water (STMW) over a considerable area in the South Pacific.

Regional Oceanic Impact on Circulation and Direct Radiative Effect of Aerosol over East Asia

The Regional Integrated Environmental Model System （RIEMS 2.0） coupled with a chemistry-aerosol model and the Princeton Ocean Model （POM） is employed to simulate regional oceanic impact on atmospheric circulation and the direct radiative effect （DRE） of aerosol over East Asia. The aerosols considered in this study include both major anthropogenic aerosols （e.g., sulfate, black carbon, and organic carbon） and natural aerosols （e.g., soil dust and sea salt）. The RIEMS 2.0 is driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis II, and the simulated period is from 1 January to 31 December 2006. The results show the following： （1） The simulated annual mean sea-level pressure by RIEMS 2.0 with POM is lower than without POM over the mainland and higher without POM over the ocean. （2） In summer, the subtropical high simulated by RIEMS 2.0 with POM is stronger and extends further westward, and the continental low is stronger than without POM in summer. （3） The aerosol optical depth （AOD） simulated by RIEMS 2.0 with POM is larger in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River than without POM. （4） The direct radiative effect with POM is stronger than that without POM in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and parts of southern China. Therefore, the authors should take account of the impact of the regional ocean model on studying the direct climate effect ＆aerosols in long term simulation.

Improved simulation of the East Asian winter monsoon interannual variation by IAP/LASG AGCMs

The simulation of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） has been a challenge for climate models. In this study, the performances of two versions of the AGCM developed at the lAP, versions 1 and 2 of the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of the IAP/LASG （GAMIL1 and GAMIL2）, are evaluated in the context of mean state and interannual variation. Significant improvements are shown for GAMIL2 in comparison to GAMIL1. The simulated interannual variability of the EAWM, measured by the regional average of 1000 hPa meridional wind over East Asia, has evidently improved; the correlation coefficient with reanalysis data changes from 0.37 in GAMIL1 to 0.71 in GAMIL2. The associated interannual precipitation anomalies are also improved, in terms of both spatial pattern and magnitude. Analysis demonstrates that the improvements result from the better simulation of the El Nino-related Philippine Sea anticyclone （PSAC） in GAMIL2. The improved moist processes, including the stratiform condensation and evaporation in GAMIL2, lead to a reasonable atmospheric heating associated with El Nitro in the tropical Pacific, which further drives the PSAC as a Rossby- wave response.

Media Transition in Eastern Europe after 1989 Albania and Poland in Comparison

In this article the author compares the transformation of media systems of two countries belonging to the former Soviet bloc of Eastern Europe： Albania and Poland. The aim is to highlight differences that occurred in this process, in order to show how, albeit a similar past and the belonging to the same political and economic model until 1989. The diversity of media transition explains the existence of different national ways in which post-communism developed during the last 25 years.

Primary study on pattern of general circulation of atmosphere before uplift of the Tibetan Plateau in eastern Asia

The Tibetan Plateau is a key factor for the pattern of the general circulation of the atmosphere (GCA) in eastern Asia. The pattern of the GCA after the uplift of the plateau is well known, while the pattern of the GCA before the uplift of the plateau is lack of direct evidences. Based on the knowability of desert, a section recording wind directions across the Cretaceous northern hemisphere mid-low latitude desert belt is measured and the pattern of the GCA in the Cretaceous is revealed. The result shows that the eastern Asia was really controlled by the planetary circulation before the uplift of the plateau, i.e. westerlies in the north and northeast trades in the south. The convert belt between westerlies and trades had drifted northwards and southwards. The possibility of existence of paleo-monsoon is also dealt with and a possibly imposed paleo-monsoon is suggested.

Asymmetrical response of summer rainfall in East Asia to CO_(2)forcing

Understanding the regional hydrological response to varying CO_(2)concentration is critical for cost-benefit analysis of mitigation and adaptation polices in the near future. To characterize summer monsoon rainfall change in East Asia in a changing CO_(2)pathway, we used the Community Earth System Model(CESM) with28 ensemble members in which the CO_(2)concentration increases at a rate of 1% per year until its quadrupling peak, i.e., 1468 ppm(ramp-up period), followed by a decrease of 1% per year until the present-day climate conditions, i.e., 367 ppm(ramp-down period). Although the CO_(2)concentration change is symmetric in time, the amount of summer rainfall anomaly in East Asia is increased 42% during a rampdown period than that during a ramp-up period when the two periods of the same CO_(2)concentration are compared. This asymmetrical rainfall response is mainly due to an enhanced El Ni?o-like warming pattern as well as its associated increase in the sea surface temperature in the western North Pacific during a ramp-down period. These sea surface temperature patterns enhance the atmospheric teleconnections and the local meridional circulations around East Asia, resulting in more rainfall over East Asia during a ramp-down period. This result implies that the removal of CO_(2)does not guarantee the return of regional rainfall to the previous climate state with the same CO_(2)concentration.

Impacts of boundary layer parameterization schemes and air-sea coupling on WRF simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon

The planetary boundary layer （PBL） scheme in the regional climate model （RCM） has a significant impact on the interactions and exchanges of moisture, momentum, and energy between land, ocean, and atmosphere; however, its uncertainty will cause large systematic biases of RCM. Based on the four different PBL schemes （YSU, ACM2, Boulac, and MYJ） in Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model, the impacts of these schemes on the simulation of circulation and precipitation during the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） are investigated. The simulated results of the two local turbulent kinetic energy （TKE） schemes, Boulac and MYJ, are more consistent with the observations than those in the two nonlocal closure schemes, YSU and ACM2. The former simulate more reasonable low-level southwesterly flow over East China and west pacific subtropical high （WPSH） than the latter. As to the modeling of summer monsoon precipitation, both the spatial distributions and temporal evolutions from Boulac and MTT are also better than those in YSU and ACM2 schemes. In addition, through the comparison between YSU and Boulac experiments, the differences from the results of EASM simulation are more obvious over the oceanic area. In the experiments with the nonlocal schemes YSU and ACM2, the boundary layer mixing processes are much stronger, which lead to produce more sea surface latent heat flux and enhanced convection, and finally induce the overestimated precipitation and corresponding deviation of monsoon circulation. With the further study, it is found that the absence of air-sea interaction in WRF may amplify the biases caused by PBL scheme over the ocean. Consequently, there is a reduced latent heat flux over the sea surface and even more reasonable EASM simulation, if an ocean model coupled into WRF.

Joint statistical-dynamical approach to decadal prediction of East Asian surface air temperature

A joint statistical-dynamical method addressing both the internal decadal variability and effect of anthropogenic forcing was developed to predict the decadal components of East Asian surface air temperature(EATs)for three decades(2010–2040).As previous studies have revealed that the internal variability of EATs(EATs_int)is influenced mainly by the ocean,we first analyzed the lead-lag connections between EATs_int and three sea surface temperature(SST)multidecadal modes using instrumental records from 1901 to 1999.Based on the lead-lag connections,a multiple linear regression was constructed with the three SST modes as predictors.The hindcast for the years from 2000 to 2005 indicated the regression model had high skill in simulating the observational EATs_int.Therefore,the prediction for EATs_int(Re_EATs_int)was obtained by the regression model based on quasi-periods of the decadal oceanic modes.External forcing from greenhouse gases is likely associated with global warming.Using monthly global land surface air temperature from historical and projection simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)4.5 scenario of 19 Coupled General Circulation Models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5),we predicted the curve of EATs(EATs_trend)relative to1970–1999 by a second-order fit.EATs_int and EATs_trend were combined to form the reconstructed EATs(Re_EATs).It was expected that a fluctuating evolution of Re_EATs would decrease slightly from 2015 to 2030 and increase gradually thereafter.Compared with the decadal prediction in CMIP5 models,Re_EATs was qualitatively in agreement with the predictions of most of the models and the multi-model ensemble mean,indicating that the joint statistical-dynamical approach for EAT is rational.

Modeling the impacts of policy interventions from REDD+ in Southeast Asia: A case study in Indonesia

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation(REDD+) and enhancing "removals of greenhouse gas emissions by forests" in developing countries through positive incentives is regarded as an essential component of the post-2012 climate regime for stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions and an important way of engaging developing countries in global mitigation efforts. We aimed to evaluate the potential effectiveness of REDD+ by integrating it into a land use option framework. One of our goals was to develop scenarios for evaluating the impacts of land use changes on carbon and environmental processes. In addition, we aimed to quantify the potential economic benefits to society of compensated reductions and to identify hotspots for applying REDD+. Three land use change scenarios were examined:(I) business as usual(BAU),(II) economic development, and(III) REDD+. A case study in Indonesia was examined using these land use scenarios and policy interventions, evaluating their effects on carbon emissions, socioeconomics, and environmental features of a spatial system using land use models. Significant emissions and water erosion reductions were predicted to be achieved under the REDD+ scenario, due to reduced deforestation of <6% over the next decade; >0.14 Mt CO2 e reduction was predicted relative to the BAU scenario. Furthermore, the spatial land use model indicated that REDD+ payments of forest carbon credits in the compliance market would play a key role in compensating rural communities and plantation companies for their opportunity cost in ending deforestation. This study provides an example of integrating land use modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and to evaluate the potential impacts of REDD+.