In 2010, China entered what the World Development Bank Report of 2010 labeled as the upper-middle-income threshold with a GDP per capita of $4,396. China s current momentum will likely carry it through sustained grow...In 2010, China entered what the World Development Bank Report of 2010 labeled as the upper-middle-income threshold with a GDP per capita of $4,396. China s current momentum will likely carry it through sustained growth in the foreseeable future, but it remains unsure whether China will escape the middle-income trap and grow into a high-income country. The answer lies in China＇s ability to restructure its industrial and social structure.展开更多
The history of international industrialization shows that Latin American countries and former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries experienced a siginificant drop in economic growth and fell into the middle-inc...The history of international industrialization shows that Latin American countries and former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries experienced a siginificant drop in economic growth and fell into the middle-income trap when their per capita GDP reached 4,000-7,000 international dollar （based on the 1990 prices） as a result of long-term implemented import-oriented strategy and planned economic system. Fortunately, China adopted reform and opening-up policy beginning at a lower development phase and achieved sustained high-speed growth for more than thirty years. Currently, China has surpassed the phase which the above-mentioned countries fell into the middle-income trap. On the other side, experiences of successful runner-ups show that when per capita GDP reached II,000 international dollar （based on the 1990 prices）, economic growth speed will present regularly ＂natural drop ＂. Without internal and external shocks, China＇s economy is expected to reach this level by 2015 and the potential growth rate will possibly drop significantly. In this regard, China＇s toughest challenges will be whether it can effectively prevent and solve the financial risks accumulated during high-speed growth and make a shift to innovation-driven growth model Time is pressing for addressing the above challenges. A fundamental change in the growth model depends on the intensification of reform, in particular, the promotion of an ＂participatory and facilitative reform ＂approach.展开更多
China is at a crucial stage of overcoming the middle-income trap, with the factors that drive economic growth having undergone significant changes, and domestic consumption playing a more important role in economic gr...China is at a crucial stage of overcoming the middle-income trap, with the factors that drive economic growth having undergone significant changes, and domestic consumption playing a more important role in economic growth. It is necessary, at this point, to promote mass consumption by expanding the middle-income group. The present paper puts forward the concept of the ＂double middle-income traps.＂ This refers to the situation in which an economy＇s per capita output stagnates and the size of the middle- income group is unable to expand for an extended period of time. These two factors are closely related. Based on data from the Chinese Social Survey conducted by the Institute of Sociology at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the present paper analyzes the scale and development of middle-income groups, and the relationship among middle- income groups, the middle-class and middle-class identity. The marginal consumption propensities of middle-income groups are also considered. The findings of the paper indicate that the expansion of the middle-income group plays an important role in promoting mass consumption, maintaining continuous and stable economic growth, and overcoming the double middle-income traps.展开更多
China’s economic growth has now changed from high to medium-high speed,which has aroused arguments on whether the Chinese economy will experience a hard landing and fall into the middle-income trap.Answers to these q...China’s economic growth has now changed from high to medium-high speed,which has aroused arguments on whether the Chinese economy will experience a hard landing and fall into the middle-income trap.Answers to these questions must factor-in long-term growth frameworks as well as international conditions.展开更多
文摘In 2010, China entered what the World Development Bank Report of 2010 labeled as the upper-middle-income threshold with a GDP per capita of $4,396. China s current momentum will likely carry it through sustained growth in the foreseeable future, but it remains unsure whether China will escape the middle-income trap and grow into a high-income country. The answer lies in China＇s ability to restructure its industrial and social structure.
文摘The history of international industrialization shows that Latin American countries and former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries experienced a siginificant drop in economic growth and fell into the middle-income trap when their per capita GDP reached 4,000-7,000 international dollar （based on the 1990 prices） as a result of long-term implemented import-oriented strategy and planned economic system. Fortunately, China adopted reform and opening-up policy beginning at a lower development phase and achieved sustained high-speed growth for more than thirty years. Currently, China has surpassed the phase which the above-mentioned countries fell into the middle-income trap. On the other side, experiences of successful runner-ups show that when per capita GDP reached II,000 international dollar （based on the 1990 prices）, economic growth speed will present regularly ＂natural drop ＂. Without internal and external shocks, China＇s economy is expected to reach this level by 2015 and the potential growth rate will possibly drop significantly. In this regard, China＇s toughest challenges will be whether it can effectively prevent and solve the financial risks accumulated during high-speed growth and make a shift to innovation-driven growth model Time is pressing for addressing the above challenges. A fundamental change in the growth model depends on the intensification of reform, in particular, the promotion of an ＂participatory and facilitative reform ＂approach.
文摘China is at a crucial stage of overcoming the middle-income trap, with the factors that drive economic growth having undergone significant changes, and domestic consumption playing a more important role in economic growth. It is necessary, at this point, to promote mass consumption by expanding the middle-income group. The present paper puts forward the concept of the ＂double middle-income traps.＂ This refers to the situation in which an economy＇s per capita output stagnates and the size of the middle- income group is unable to expand for an extended period of time. These two factors are closely related. Based on data from the Chinese Social Survey conducted by the Institute of Sociology at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the present paper analyzes the scale and development of middle-income groups, and the relationship among middle- income groups, the middle-class and middle-class identity. The marginal consumption propensities of middle-income groups are also considered. The findings of the paper indicate that the expansion of the middle-income group plays an important role in promoting mass consumption, maintaining continuous and stable economic growth, and overcoming the double middle-income traps.
文摘China’s economic growth has now changed from high to medium-high speed,which has aroused arguments on whether the Chinese economy will experience a hard landing and fall into the middle-income trap.Answers to these questions must factor-in long-term growth frameworks as well as international conditions.
