中国“乡—城”人口迁移规模的测算与分析(1979-2003)

改革开放以后,中国每年到底有多少农村人口迁移城镇成为城镇常住人口,一直是个未知的谜。本文借助现有的统计资料对历年中国“乡-城”人口迁移的具体规模进行了测算,总结了改革开放以来中国“乡-城”人口迁移的变动规律。

The Empirical Analysis on the Dynamic Effect of Rural-urban Migration on the Consumption Growth of Residents in China——Based on Varying Parameter State-space Model

The research constructed varying parameter state-space model and per- formed estimation on dynamic relationship between urban-rural migration and aggre- gate consumption expenditure on basis of dual economic structure. The results showed that urban consumption growth made the most contribution to aggregate consumption growth, followed by urban-rural migration caused consumption. The role of rural consumption growth kept stable, but consumption caused by population growth was decreasing. Therefore, China consumption growth mainly relies on urban consumption expenditure and urban-rural migration.

养老金红利:理论与来自中国的实证

"乡—城"人口迁移会对城镇现收现付制公共养老金制度内现存群体和制度的财务可持续性产生重要影响。论文运用迭代模型证明了农村迁移劳动力能够提高城镇现收现付制养老金制度内现存群体的养老金水平和生命周期内的消费总效用,从理论上界定了养老金红利和其存在的条件。基于对存在条件的判断和规模测度的实证分析,研究结论显示养老金红利存在于中国并有助于城镇基本养老保险制度度过财务不可持续性危机。