骗术面面观

售货小姐变魔术“塑身内衣”变铁丝网/三个骗子一台戏“云参”

Intercomparison of different physics schemes in the WRF model over the Asian summer monsoon region

Enhancing the ability of the WRF model in simulating a large area covering the West Pacific Ocean, China's Mainland, and the East Indian Ocean is very important to improve prediction of the East Asian monsoon climate. The objective of this study is to identify a reasonable configuration of physical parameterization schemes to simulate the precipitation and temperature in this large area. The Mellor-Yamada-Janjic （MYJ） and Yonsei University （YSU） PBL schemes, the WSM3 and WSM5 microphysics schemes, and the Betts-Miller-Janjic （BMJ） and Tiedtke cumulus schemes are compared through simulation of the regional climate of summer 2008. All cases exhibit a similar spatial distribution of temperature as observed, and the spatial correlation coefficients are all higher than 0.95. The cases combining MY J, WSM3/WSM5, and BMJ have the smallest biases of temperature. The choice of PBL scheme has a significant effect on precipitation in such a large area. The cases with MYJ reproduce a better distribution of rain belts, while YSU strongly overestimates the precipitation intensity. The precipitation simulated using WSM3 is similar to that using WSM5. The BMJ cumulus scheme combined with the MYJ PBL scheme has a smaller bias of precipitation. However, the Tiedtke scheme reproduces the precipitation pattern better, especially over the ITCZ.

Effect of Macrophysical Parameters of Clouds on Broadband Solar Radiation(295-2800 nm) at a Subtropical Location

The present study describes the effect of clouds （macro-physical parameters） on global solar radia- tion （G）. Data from four years of hourly measurements of G on a horizontal surface were used. These data were collected at the South Valley University （SVU） meteoro- logical research station （26.2~N, 32.7~E, 96 m above mean see level. In addition, the cloud modification factor for G （CMF~）was estimated in three cases： high-level, mid-level, and low-level clouds. For every level, the variation of hourly CMF~ as a function of cloud amount （CA） was illustrated. A third-order polynomial between hourly values of CMFc and CA was established. Fur- thermore, the effect of CA in the attenuation of G relative to its corresponding value in cloudless conditions is dis- cussed. For cloud cover 〉 88%, G was reduced by 54%, 34%, and 28% by low-, mid-, and high-level clouds, re- spectively.

Numerical investigations for the impacts of triple-moment and double-moment condensation schemes on the warm rain formation

The initiation and intensity of warm rain are processes dominated by the evolution of cloud droplet spectra.To treat the cloud condensation process properly is a fundamental step for the simulation of warm rain formation.Double-moment bulk schemes with a limited number of prognostic variables cannot simulate the evolution of droplet spectra properly.A triple-moment bulk scheme,however,should overcome the problem of spurious cloud droplet spectrum broadening induced by double-moment schemes.To compare the effects of a newly developed triplemoment scheme with double-moment schemes on warm rain formation,the authors conducted WRF-LES numerical simulations to investigate the impacts of the two types of condensation scheme on rain initiation and intensity.In the early stage of raindrop formation,the simulation with the triple-moment scheme delays the raindrop initiation and produces droplet spectra with smaller average radii than those with the double-moment scheme.In the developing stage,the triple-moment scheme reduces the raindrop water content at the precipitation center.However,the further triple-moment scheme for raindrop is needed to simulate the development of warm rain accurately.

Validation for a tropical belt version of WRF: sensitivity tests on radiation and cumulus convection parameterizations

Version 3.9 of WRF-ARW is run with a tropical belt configuration for a period from 2012 to 2016 in this study. The domain covers the entire tropics between 45°S and 45°N with a spatial resolution of about 45 km. In order to verify two radiation schemes and four cumulus convection schemes, eight experiments are performed with different combinations of physics parameterization schemes. The results show that eight experiments present reasonable spatial patterns of surface air temperature and precipitation in boreal summer, with the spatial correlation coefficient (COR) between simulated and observed temperature exceeding 0.95, and that between simulated and observed precipitation ranges from 0.65 to 0.82. The four experiments with the RRTMG radiation scheme show a better performance than the other four experiments with the CAM radiation scheme. In the four experiments with the RRTMG radiation scheme, the COR between simulated and observed surface air temperature is about 0.98, and that between simulated and observed precipitation ranges from 0.76 to 0.82. Comparatively, the two experiments using the new Tiedtke cumulus parameterization scheme can simulate better diurnal variation of precipitation in boreal summer than the other six experiments. In particular, for the diurnal cycle of precipitation over land and ocean, the experiment using the RRTMG radiation scheme and the new Tiedtke cumulus convection scheme shows that the peaks of precipitation rate appear at 0400 LST and 1600 LST, in agreement with observation.

IMPACTS OF CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION AND RESOLUTION ON THE MJO SIMULATION

Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO) in six integrations using an AGCM with different cumulus parameterization schemes and resolutions are examined to investigate their impacts on the MJO simulation. Results suggest that the MJO simulation can be affected by both resolution and cumulus parameterization, though the latter, which determines the fundamental ability of the AGCM in simulating the MJO and the characteristics of the simulated MJO, is more crucial than the former. Model resolution can substantially affect the simulated MJO in certain aspects. Increasing resolution cannot improve the simulated MJO substantially, but can significantly modulate the detailed character of the simulated MJO; meanwhile, the impacts of resolution are dependent on the cumulus parameterization, determining the basic features of the MJO. Changes in the resolution do not alter the nature of the simulated MJO but rather regulate the simulation itself, which is constrained by cumulus parameterization schemes. Therefore, the vertical resolution needs to be increased simultaneously. The vertical profile of diabatic heating may be a crucial factor that is responsible for these different modeling results. To a large extent, it is determined by the cumulus parameterization scheme used.

Impacts of uncertain cloud-related parameters on Pacific Walker circulation simulation in GAMIL2

To investigate the impacts of uncertain parameters on simulated Pacific Walker circulation （PWC）, a large number of perturbed parameter simulations are conducted using GAMIL2 （the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG, version 2）, and three different PWC indices are selected.The results show that the influences of some parameters on PWC are dependent on the selected index - a finding supported by the inconsistent responses of different indexes to these parameters. Among the nine parameters, the RH threshold for deep convection （RHCRIT） is the most sensitive in simulating PWC. Increased RHCRIT weakens deep convective heating and stratiform cooling, and strengthens shallow convective heating. Further analysis reveals that uncertain parameters affect the simulated PWC through changing the diabatic heating and vertical motion.

The Diversity of the Environmental Impact in Kurzeme

The analysis of environmental impact effects on forest ecosystems has a theoretical and practical nature. Many methods have been developed to determine characteristics and intensity of this impact. Methodologically, they can be divided into three groups： environmental parameter, bioindicative and combined methods. To evaluate the environmental impact a combined method was used in this study, it was based on trees as the bioindicators and their response reactions, and environmental parameter analysis. In this study the bioindicator was Norway spruce （Picea abies （L.） Karst.）, whose response reaction was used to explain total impact volumes of environmental factors in different places in the region of Kurzeme and try to interpret the causes of these differences. As the bioindicators criterion was used response reaction of Norway spruce during a period of 20 years, which was expressed with cumulative and annual additional volume increment, and was depending on the location of the stand and its morphometric characteristics. The empirical material was collected in Kurzeme region in 28 sample plots that are located on two transects and in one reference stand. For the evaluation the widths of the last 40 year growth rings were measured. To express the environmental impact in Kurzeme region a multiple regression model was developed, which explains the environmental impact in the volume of 68.2%, the rest part can be explained by the local conditions of each stand. It must be noted that methodology used in this study is very sensitive, thus, each of the nuances in the dynamics of volume＇s annual reduced additional increments has biological and ecological cause.

Application of Ambient Stress Parameters to Short-Term Prediction of the 2004, M_S5.0 Shuangbai, Yunnan Earthquake

Based on the data recorded by the regional digital seismic network of Yunnan and using new methods, the short-term variations of the ambient stress field of Yunnan and its adjacent areas are monitored in real time. With the in-depth analyses of the spatial-temporal evolution of the ambient stress field prior to the 2004, Shuangbai M_S5.0 earthquake, concrete procedures for predicting the three elements of the earthquake are presented.

Study on Inelastic Attenuation and Source Parameters of the Shidian Swarm in 2001

Based on horizontal-component digital seismograms recorded on 6 stations of the Yunnan Regional Digital Network, we inversed the inelastic attenuation in the source region of the Shidian swarm using the Atkinson method and the site responses of the 6 stations 200kin around the Shidian epicenters using the Moya method. The observational seismic waveform data were corrected by removing the propagation, instrument and site effects before the source parameters of the Shidian swarm in 2001 were determined using genetic algorithms. The results are as follows： （ 1 ） There is a linear relation between seismic moment and local magnitude. The seismic moment is between 1×10^12 and 10^14 N·m. The rupture radius of the seismic focus varies from 157m to 973m. The seismic moment and the rupture radius maintain a linear correlation. （2） The corner frequency increases as the seismic moment decreases. Based on the expression between corner frequency and seismic moment using least squares fitting, we can obtain the estimated value of the corner frequency. The time-varying value of the calculated corner frequency minus the estimated corner frequency shows that there were continuous high and low anomalies before the strong aftershocks. （3） The seismic stress drop is in the range of 0.07-1.55MPa. The stress drop seems independent of the local magnitude. The variation of stress drops is high before the occurrence of the strong aftershocks. （4） The depth of aftershocks is mostly in a range from 5kin to 10km, which means that energy release of aftershocks is mainly concentrated in this range of depth.

Study on the Current Situation and Strategies of Yunnan Private Enterprises to Participate in the GMS Agricultural Cooperation

Along with the constant improvement of the greater Mekong sub-regional （GMS） cooperation mechanism, the prospect for Yunnan private enterprises to participate in the GMS agricultural cooperation becomes wider. In this background, the current situation of Yunnan private enterprises to carry out agricultural trade and investment in the GMS countries is analyzed by taking Yunnan private enterprises for example, and then the main problems are summarized, and finally rational suggestions are proposed for the government to effectively promote Yunnan private enterprises to participate in the GMS agricultural cooperation.

Application of homotopy parameter inversion method in Miyun Reservoir

The large-scale convergence of homotopy parametric inversion method on the water quality model parameters calculated was used,with application in parametric inversion calculation of total phosphorus of Beijing Miyun Reservoir.Through calculated and compared the error of sedimentation rate by homotopy parametric inversion method and genetic inversion calculation method,the results indicate that homotopy parametric inversion method has good stability,calculating speed,and even if the initial selection away from the objective function,the solution still has a good convergence.

Preliminary Study on Characteristics of Source Parameters of Earthquakes in the Nuozhadu Reservoir Area,Yunnan Province

We computed source parameters for 143 earthquakes with M_L≥ 1. 0 occurring from January,2011 to March,2014 using waveform data recorded by the Nuozhadu and Jinghong Reservoir Seismic Networks. Then,the variation of seismic activity and the characteristics of source parameters before and after the impoundment of the reservoir were investigated. The results show that:( 1) the seismic activity increased obviously after the impoundment,especially during the 3- 4 months after impoundment;( 2) the focal depths of the earthquakes occurring in the reservoir area are shallower than the earthquakes occurring outside the reservoir area in the initial stage of impoundment,but after a time,the difference was gradually reduced;( 3) corner frequency varies with the seismic moment and the log-linear relationship is more obvious after impounding;( 4)stress drop and apparent stress increase with increasing seismic moment,moreover they are lower for the earthquakes occurring in the reservoir area after impounding than those occurring outside the reservoir area or before impounding with the same seismic moment;( 5) the effect of reservoir impoundment on an earthquake can reach a depth of 10 km,and the maximum effect is seen at a depth of 3km- 6km,and the differences of seismic activity and average apparent stress between the inside and outside of the reservoir are significant.

Development of a toy column model and its application in testing cumulus convection parameterizations

A single-column model is constructed based on parameterizations inherited from the Finite-volume/Spectral Atmospheric Model F/SAMIL and tested in simulations of tropical convective systems. Two representative convection schemes are compared in terms of their performances on precipitation types, individual physical tendencies, and temperature and moisture fields. The main difference between the two selected schemes is in their representation of entraining/detraining process. The Tiedtke scheme assumes bulk entrainment, while the Zhang–Mc Farlane scheme parameterizes entrainment/detrainment rates under the spectrum concept. Large-scale forcing and verification data are taken from the GATE phase III field campaign, during which abundant convective events were observed. Given the same triggering function and closure assumption, results show that entrainment/detrainment representation remains the dominant factor on the simulation of cumulus mass flux and of temperature and moisture fields. By analyzing sources and sinks of heat and moisture, this study reveals how parameterization components compensate for each other and make model results insensitive to parameterization changes in certain fields, thus suggesting the need to treat parameterizations as systems rather than individual components.

Daytime precipitation identification scheme based on multiple cloud parameters retrieved from visible and infrared measurements

Visible and infrared(VIR) measurements and the retrieved cloud parameters are commonly used in precipitation identification algorithms, since the VIR observations from satellites, especially geostationary satellites, have high spatial and temporal resolutions. Combined measurements from visible/infrared scanner(VIRS) and precipitation radar(PR) aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) satellite are analyzed, and three cloud parameters, i.e., cloud optical thickness(COT), effective radius(Re), and brightness temperature of VIRS channel 4(BT4), are particularly considered to characterize the cloud status. By associating the information from VIRS-derived cloud parameters with those from precipitation detected by PR, we propose a new method for discriminating precipitation in daytime called Precipitation Identification Scheme from Cloud Parameters information(PISCP). It is essentially a lookup table(LUT) approach that is deduced from the optimal equitable threat score(ETS) statistics within 3-dimensional space of the chosen cloud parameters. South and East China is selected as a typical area representing land surface, and the East China Sea and Yellow Sea is selected as typical oceanic area to assess the performance of the new scheme. It is proved that PISCP performs well in discriminating precipitation over both land and oceanic areas. Especially, over ocean, precipitating clouds(PCs) and non-precipitating clouds(N-PCs) are well distinguished by PISCP, with the probability of detection(POD) near 0.80, the probability of false detection(POFD) about 0.07, and the ETS higher than 0.43. The overall spatial distribution of PCs fraction estimated by PISCP is consistent with that by PR, implying that the precipitation data produced by PISCP have great potentials in relevant applications where radar data are unavailable.

Sensitivity of simulated tropical intraseasonal oscillations to cumulus schemes

The sensitivity of simulated tropical intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) to different cumulus parameterization schemes was analyzed using an atmospheric general circulation model (latest version-SAMIL2.2.3) developed at the Laboratory for Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.Results show that the basic features of tropical climatological intraseasonal oscillations (CISO) can be captured using all three cumulus schemes.The CISO simulated by the Tiedtke scheme was found to be more realistic than that of the Manabe and Zhang-McFarlane schemes.The results of simulated transient intraseasonal oscillations (TISO) indicate that although the Tiedtke and the Zhang-McFarlane schemes in the new version SAMIL2.2.3 have been adjusted according to different problems,only the latter can simulate the eastward propagation of the 27-50-day TISO mode.It may be associated with the more realistic diabatic heating profile simulated by the Zhang-McFarlane scheme.In addition,the Manabe scheme in SAMIL2.2.3 is the same as that in the prior version SAMIL2.08.However,some aspects of the physical process,such as the radiation scheme and aerosol condition,have been changed.Conversely the eastward propagation from 100°E to the west of the tropical 27-50-day TISO mode only can be simulated using the Manabe scheme of SAMIL 2.08.Consequently,not all the improvements of physical parameterization schemes work well in every respect.The coordinated developments between dynamic frame and physical processes,and among different physical processes,are important methods that may be used to improve the model.

A method for solving relative dispersion of the cloud droplet spectra

The relative dispersion of the cloud droplet spectra or the shape parameter is usually assumed to be a constant in the two-parameter cloud microphysical scheme, or is derived through statistical analysis. However, observations have revealed that the use of such methods is not applicable for all actual cases. In this study, formulas were derived based on cloud microphysics and the properties of gamma function to solve the average cloud droplet radius and the cloud droplet spectral shape parameter. The gamma distribution shape parameter, relative dispersion, and cloud droplet spectral distribution can be derived through solving the droplet spectral shape parameter equation using the average droplet radius, volume radius, and their ratio, thereby deriving an analytic solution. We further examined the equation for the droplet spectral shape parameter using the observational droplet spectral data, and results revealed the feasibility of the method. In addition, when the method was applied to the two-parameter cloud microphysical scheme of the Weather Research and Forecast(WRF) model to further examine its feasibility, the modeling results showed that it improved precipitation simulation performance, thereby indicating that it can be utilized in two-parameter cloud microphysical schemes.

Features of rainfall and latent heating structure simulated by two convective parameterization schemes

Using the latest version of SAMIL (Spectral Atmosphere Model of IAP LASG) developed by LASG/IAP,we evaluate the model performance by analyzing rainfall,latent heating structure and other basic fields with two different convective parameterization schemes:Manabe Scheme and Tiedtke Scheme.Results show that convective precipitation is excessively overestimated while stratiform precipitation is underestimated by Tiedtke scheme,thus causing less stratiform rainfall proportion compared with TRMM observation.In contrast,for Manabe scheme stratiform rainfall belt is well simulated,although precipitation center near Bay of Bengal (BOB) spreads eastward and northward associated with unrealistic strong rainfall downstream of the Tibet Plateau.The simulated latent heating structure indicates that Tiedtke scheme has an advantage over Manabe scheme,as the maximum convective latent heating near middle of troposphere is well reproduced.Moreover,the stratiform latent heating structure is also well simulated by Tiedtke scheme with warming above freezing level and cooling beneath freezing level.As for Manabe scheme,the simulated maximum convective latent heating lies near 700 hPa,lower than the observation.Additionally,the warming due to stratiform latent heating extends to the whole vertical levels,which is unreasonable compared with observation.Taylor diagram further indicates that Tiedtke scheme is superior to Manabe scheme as higher correlation between model output and observation data is achieved when Tiedtke scheme is employed,especially for the temperature near 200 hPa.Finally,a possible explanation is addressed for the unrealistic stratiform rainfall by Tiedtke scheme,which is due to the neglect of detrained cloud water and cloud ice during convective process.The speculation is verified through an established sensitivity experiment.