邓小平“人均”观探析

邓小平在探索社会主义现代化目标过程中,从三层意义上提出"人均"观。邓小平的"人均"观蕴含深刻的内涵,不仅发挥了重要的历史作用,而且具有重要的现实意义。

话说“人均”

在房地产(经济)理论界某些专家的言谈著文中,“人均”是使用频率相当高的一个词汇,人均值也是有些人据理时爱用的论据。如银行民间人均存款已超过8万亿元,而城市人均住房面积尚不足10平方米,简单地一“人均”,就算出个多么大的市场需求、多么大的市场购买力,真是一块诱人的市场大蛋糕。什么空置、什么泡沫,还差得远呢,来吧!

北京服装消费市场的潜力分析

从“可支配收入”角度获得判断服装消费市场潜力的依据;在“人均衣着消费”和“人均服装消费”方面,分析了北京市城镇居民可支配收入与服装市场的消费潜力。

Forecasting Public Green Area Per Capita in Xi’an City Based on GM (1, 1)

[Objective] To establish the comprehensive evaluation index system of public green area per capita as a quantitative mean of measuring ecological city and livable city. [Method]The GM (1, 1) forecasting model was set up according to statistics of public green area per capita in Xi’an City during 1996 and 2005, on this basis, the development trend of green area per capita in Xi’an City until 2015 were analyzed in case of no any changing factors or conditions. [Result]Grey forecasting model was established as, (t = 0, 1, …, n); model parameters as a = - 0.031 71, u = 4.139 17. After residual error test and posterior-variance-test, the precision of this model is proved fairly good. [Conclusions]According to this model, public green area per capita in Xi’an City will achieve 7.66 m2 by 2015, which is still far away from the livable city index (16 m2 per capita) and should be paid more attention by the local government, the construction of urban green areas should be further enhanced, more vegetations should be cultivated so as to improve the urban green coverage ratio.

创新转型的宏观技术经济条件——基于韩国创新转型经验的中国国情判断

基于韩国创新转型经验数据的格兰杰因果关系检验,分析了国家创新转型的宏观技术经济条件。结果表明,社会劳动生产率和人均GNP是国家创新转型的长期驱动因素,两者分别代表了国家创新转型的宏观技术条件和宏观经济条件。参照韩国创新转型时期的宏观技术经济条件,研究认为,我国整体上尚不具备创新转型的宏观技术经济条件,但有13个省会城市基本具备了创新转型的宏观技术经济条件。

Empirical Study on the Effect of Abolishing Agricultural Tax on Farmers' Income

The panel dataset which covered the socio-economic data of 31 provinces （municipalities and autonomous region） in China from 2000-2007 was used to do empirical analysis on the effect of abolishing agricultural taxes on farmers＇ income by referring to the fixed effect estimation method. It found that the abolition of agricultural taxes increased farmer＇s net income per capita by 2%. Combining with the results of empirical analysis, related policy suggestions were put forward to increase farmers＇ income.

Spatial Pattern Evolution and Casual Analysis of County Level Economy in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration, China

In order to evaluate whether or not the county units′ economy in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan(Chang-Zhu-Tan) Urban Agglomeration was growing as expected, this study analyzed the spatial economy pattern at county-level by using the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA) method. In this process, the global Moran′s I and local Getis-Ord G*i indexes were employed to analyze indicators including per capita GDP and three industrials(i.e. primary, secondary and tertiary industry) from 2000 to 2010. The results show that: 1) the county units′ economy in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration has exhibited a strong spatial autocorrelation and an accelerated integration trend since 2008(Moran′ s I increased from 0.26 to 0.56); 2) there is a significant difference in economy development between the northern and southern county units in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration: the hotspot zone with high economic level was formed among the northern county units whereas the coldspot zone with low economic level was located in the southern areas. This difference was caused primarily by the increasingly prominent economic radiation effect of Changsha ′upheaval′; 3) town density, secondary industry, and the integration policy are the major contributors driving the evolution of the spatial economy pattern in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration.

Ecological Footprint and Major Driving Forces in West Jilin Province, Northeast China

The environmental impact caused by local people （ecological footprint of consumption, EFc） and the actual environmental impact that the ecosystem burdens （ecological footprint of production, EFp） in West Jilin Province, Northeast China from 1986 to 2006 were evaluated by using ecological footprint （EF） method. And the major driving forces of EFc and EFp were analyzed by STIRPAT model. Both EFc and EFp showed increasing trends in 1986-2006, accompanied by decreasing ecological deficits but expanding ecological overshoots. Population （P）, GDP per capita （A1）, quadratic term of GDP per capita （A2）, urbanization （Tα1）, and quadratic term of urbanization （Ta2） were important influencing factors of EFc, among which Tα2 and Tα1 were the most dominate driving forces of EFc. A1, A2 and Tα2 were important influencing factors of EFp, among which A2 and A1 were the most dominate driving forces of EFp. In 1986-2006, the classical Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis did not exist between A2 and EF （both EFc and EFp）, but did between Tα2 and EF. The results indicate that enhancing the urbanization process and diversifying economic sources is one of the most effective ways to reduce the environmental impact of West Jilin Province. Moreover, importance should be attached to improve the eco-efficiency of resource exploitation and consumption.

Regional Difference in Social Capital and Its Impact on Regional Economic Growth in China

Social capital has played an increasingly important role in regional development.China is a country with high stocks of social capital.Using several different indicators of social capital,this study tries to research the regional disparities in social capital and the influence of social capital on economic growth of China in 1978-2004.Measuring social capital with indicators of associations,charities and blood donation rates,this study finds significant regional disparities in social capital at provincial level in China.Those indicators for social capital are highly correlated with regional economic performance.Statistical analysis shows that social capital has a significant and positive effect on a long-term provincial economic growth.This relationship exists after controlling policy,macro location factors,and per capita GDP in the initial year.The empirical findings indicate that institutions,culture and social relations are critical for regional development in China.Therefore,the creation and support of social capital should be paid more attention to when making regional policy.

Urban Expansion and Its Influencing Factors in Natural Wetland Distribution Area in Fuzhou City,China

This paper principally focuses on land use dynamics,urban expansion and underlying driving forces in the Natural Wetland Distribution Area(NWDA)of Fuzhou City in the southeastern China.Based on time series Landsat TM/ETM+imageries and historical data,relationships between urban land expansion and its influencing factors from 1989 to 2009 were analyzed by using an integrated approach of remote sensing(RS)and geographic information system(GIS)techniques.The results showed that built-up land increased from 151.16 km2in 1989 to 383.76 km 2in 2009. Approximately 64.25%of the newly emerging built-up land was converted from cropland(29.47%),forest and shrub (25.78%),water(3.73%),wetland(4.61%),and bare land(0.66%)during 1989 and 2009.With a remarkable decrease in cropland,the proportion of non-agricultural population increased by 23.6%.Moreover,rapid development of infrastructures,facilities,industrial parks,and urban and rural settlements along the Minjiang River resulted in the eastward and southward expansion of built-up land.Additionally,the growth pattern of built-up land in the NWDA is highly correlated with socio-economic factors,including the gross domestic product(GDP),GDP per capita,and structure of industry.As a result,the observed environmental degradation such as loss of cropland and wetland due to heavy pressure of rapid urbanization have greatly impaired the carrying capacity of city.Thus,in addition to scientific and rational policies towards minimizing the adverse effects of urbanization,coordination between the administrative agencies should be urgently strengthened to balance the conflicts between urban development and ecological conservation to make sure the sustainable land use.

Analysis on the Status of Farmers, Agriculture and Countryside, and Development Strategies and Measures in Tibet Autonomous Region

Coordinated and sustainable development of farmers, agriculture and countryside (FAC) is key to realize the national objective of comprehensively developed well-off society. Since the peaceful liberation of Tibet, outstanding achievements have been made in FAC work. However, compared with East and Middle China, there still exists a big gap. The farmers’ net income per capita in 2001 was 1,404 yuan, 962 yuan lower than the nation’s average. In late 90’s the farmers’ income growth slowed down. Agricultural industrialization is at low level, technologies play a small role in agricultural development, rural infrastructure is weak, the rural grass root organization is much underdeveloped, and construction of towns is behind the other regions of China. Based on the problems of FAC development there, this paper proposes FAC development strategies and measures for accelerating rural development in Tibet.

Establishment of Rural Housing Land Standard in China

On the basis of rural household survey in 12 provinces of China in 2005,this research built an econometrical model to find the area standard for rural housing land.This standard is expected to facilitate rural housing land administration,efficient and intensive housing land use and policy making.This research concludes:1) according to the household survey data,the average area for rural housing land in China is about 235.26 m 2,and the rural housing land mainly includes unused land(42.89%) and house construction land(37.76%) with the average floor-area ratio of 0.42;2) the indexes in the standard concern the factors such as location,landform,house form,household population and cultivated land area per farmer,which all have significant effects on rural housing land use;3) the reasonable area for rural housing land may be 150 m 2 in average before 2020,and the referential standards in different provinces are 120 m 2,130 m 2,140m 2,150 m 2,160 m 2,170 m 2,190 m 2,200 m 2,210 m 2,220 m 2,230 m 2 and 250 m 2 respectively;and 4) if there are less than two persons or more than five persons in a family,these standards need to be decreased or increased by 7%.When the cultivated land area per farmer is lower than the provincial average,the standards have to reduce by 3.5%.

Enhanced kernel minimum squared error algorithm and its application in face recognition

To improve the classification performance of the kernel minimum squared error（ KMSE）, an enhanced KMSE algorithm（ EKMSE） is proposed. It redefines the regular objective function by introducing a novel class label definition, and the relative class label matrix can be adaptively adjusted to the kernel matrix.Compared with the common methods, the newobjective function can enlarge the distance between different classes, which therefore yields better recognition rates. In addition, an iteration parameter searching technique is adopted to improve the computational efficiency. The extensive experiments on FERET and GT face databases illustrate the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed EKMSE. It outperforms the original MSE, KMSE,some KMSE improvement methods, and even the sparse representation-based techniques in face recognition, such as collaborate representation classification（ CRC）.

Geographical Differences and Influencing Factors of Rural Energy Consumption in Southwest Mountain Areas in China:A Case Study of Zhaotong City

China is a mountainous country,and Southwest mountain areas cover the most mountain areas in China and have the most serious problems.Taking Zhaotong city as the study area,based on 902 rural household questionnaires of 11 villages in 2 counties and Tobit model,this paper analyzes the geographical differences and influencing factors of energy consumption for non-production purposes of rural households living in different terrain conditions.This research finds that:(1) Coal takes up the main part of energy consumption in valley areas and coal consumption is mainly affected by per capita cultivated land area,household income,proportion of rural household energy expenditure in total expenditure,coal price,and family population size.Firewood takes up the main part of energy consumption in high mountain areas and firewood consumption is mainly affected by per capita firewood forest area,distance to purchase coal,household income,electricity price,and coal price.(2) Only when the distance is greater than 20 kilometers,that is the average distance of rural households living in middle mountain areas(1,600m^1,800m) to purchase coal,the transportation condition has a significant impact on coal consumption.(3) In high mountain areas,prices of coal and electricity are the main factors influencing energy consumption choice of rural households.Too high prices of coal and electricity would to some extent lead rural households to choose firewood as the main energy consumption type.Compared to coal,rural households prefer to choose electricity.

Changes in Land Use and Agricultural Production Structure Before and After the Implementation of Grain for Green Program in Western China–Taking Two Typical Counties as Examples

Soil erosion becomes a serious environmental problem in the world, especially in western China. An effective management practice called the Grain for Green Program(GGP), which was launched in 1999, aims to reduce soil and water loss and alleviate the ecological environment problem in western China. Two typical counties in western China, the Zhongxian(in Chongqing Municipality) and Ansai(in Shaanxi Province) were chosen to evaluate the dynamic changes of land use and agricultural production structure before and after the implementation of the Program in this paper. The results showed that the cultivated land area was reduced by 7.08% from 1989 to 2003. The cultivated land per person was decreased by 8.42% during 1999-2003. Moreover, the stability index of the secondary sector of the economy was increased from 0.91 in the period 1990-1999 to 0.94 in the following ten years. In addition, the stability index of tertiary economic sector increased from 0.88 to 0.92 in Zhongxian county. Meanwhile, the cultivated land area was reduced by 15.48% from 1990 to 1999. The soil erosion modulus was decreased by 33.33% from 1999 to 2006. Also, the stability index of secondary and tertiary economic sectors was 0.86 in the period 1998-2002. However, it decreased by 77% during 2002 to 2007 in Ansai County. These results imply that the Grain for Green Program had different impact on the two regions. Several effective strategies of soil and water conservation have been carried out to ameliorate the sustainable development of ecological environment and economy in these two counties of western China.

Effects of Industrial Relocation on Chinese Regional Economic Growth Disparities: Based on System Dynamics Modeling

The economic growth of China has led to increasing growth disparities between regions. Such disparities are uncontrolled and are severely negative symptoms in the process of economic development. On the basis of system dynamics(SD) modeling and the relationship between industrial relocation and regional economic growth, we construct a model of the interrelationship between the two aforementioned phenomena. The model is an effective and creative exploration for examining effects of industrial relocation on Chinese regional economic growth disparities. The SD model is employed in this study to build an inter-regional labor migration SD model, an inter-regional capital migration SD model, an intra-industry SD model, an intra-regional population SD model, and an intra-regional SD model which are based on realities in labor and capital flow from the view of industrial relocation. VENSIM software is utilized to perform a system simulation based on the data of the eastern, middle, and western regions from 2000 to 2010. Results show that industrial relocation gradually narrows the relative disparity in GDP among the three regions. Moreover, the absolute one is enlarged continuously. The absolute and relative disparities in per capita GDP among eastern, middle, and western regions generally exhibit decreasing trends.

Origin Distribution Patterns and Floating Population Modeling:Yiwu City as a Destination

Existing quantitative migration studies are mainly at the inter-region or inter-province level for lacking of detailed geo-referenced migration data.Meanwhile,few of them integrate explorative spatial data analysis and spatial regression model into migration analysis.Based on aggregated registered floating population data from 2005 to 2008,the phenomena that population floating to Yiwu City in Zhejiang Province is analyzed at the provincial and county levels.The spatial layout of Yiwu's pull forces is proved as a V-shaped pattern excluding Sichuan Province based on map visualization method.Using the migration ratio in 2007 as an explanatory variable,two models are compared using ordinary least square,spatial error model and spatial lag model methods for county-level data in Jiangxi and Anhui provinces.The model with migration stock provides an improved fitting over the model without migration stock according to the model fitting results.The floating population flocking into Yiwu City from Jiangxi is determined mostly by migration stock while the determinant factors are migration stock and distance to Yiwu City for Anhui.The distance-decay effect is true for migration flow from Anhui to Yiwu City while the distance rule is not confirmed in Jiangxi with the best fitting model.The correlation between per capita net income of rural labor forces and migration ratio is not significant in Jiangxi and significant but at the 0.1 level only in Anhui.Further analysis shows that the distance,income and man-land ratio are important factors to explain population floating at earlier stage.However,as the dynamic population floating process evolves,the determinant factor would be migration stock.

The Effects of Natural Capital Protection on Pastoralist's Livelihood and Management Implication in the Source Region of the Yellow River, China

The interaction among different livelihood capitals is a key to generate a deeper understanding of the livelihood sustainability.In this paper,we use net income per capita(economic capital),meat and milk production per capita(physical capital),and areas of fenced pasture,livestock shelter,grassland rodent control and planted grassland(physical capital) as proxy indicators of livelihood promotion,livelihood provision,and livelihood protection respectively.By developing a correlation model between pastoralists' livelihood protection and improvement,we found that(1) there is a statistically significant correlation between the pastoralists' livelihood protection and promotion;(2) based on the maximum effect of pastoralists' livelihood promotion and provision,there is a benchmark in the effect of the intervention intensity of livelihood capital(grassland resource protection) on livelihood improvement;(3) on basis of two indicators,i.e.net income per capita and meat production per capita,the reasonable scales of fenced pasture,livestock shelter and planted grassland are less than 843,860 and 46 thousand hectares(hm2) per year respectively.With the marginal effect of livelihood protection,moderately decreased areas of fenced pasture and planted grassland,and increased area of livestock shelter is a critical to ensure pastoralist's livelihood sustainability.

Coronary artery bypass grafting in the octogenarians： should we intervene, or leave them be？

Objective Coronary artery bypass grafting （CABG） is gradually increasing in the elderly population. We aimed to investigate the risk factors and the results of CABG along with the long term survival in patients at an age of 80 and older. Methods Between Januaa-y 2002 and December 201 I, a total of i01 consecutive patients at an age of S0 and older who underwent CABG in our hospital were included in the study. The patients were followed and the long-term survival was estimated. Results The mean age of the patients was 82.98 ~ 2.27 years. Sixty-four （63.4%） were males and 37 （36.6%） were females. Emergency surgery, duration of cardiopulmonary bypass, the intensive care unit （ICU） stay, inotropic support, intra aortic balloon pulsation application, amount oferythrocyte transfusion and flesh frozen plasma transfusion and ventilation period were significantly higher in the patients who died in the hospital. The duration of cardiopulmonary bypass （CPB） was found to be an inde- pendent predictor of mortality （OR： 1.18, 95% CI 1.01-1.38, P = 0.034）. The in-hospital mortality was 16.8%. Kaplan-Meier analyses revealed a survival ratio of 91.3% at one year, 82.9% at three years and 69.0% at five years. Conclusions Patients at the age of 80 and older can be candidates for the CABG procedure bearing in mind that they may have a longer ventilation period and intensive care unit stay. The morbidity and mortality of this age group is considered within an acceptable range. Approaches to minimize CPB, or the choice of off-pump surgery, may be a preventive method to lower the incidence of mortality. Hence, CABG may be performed in this age group with a satisfactory survival ratio.