A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics assumed to be governed by controlling eforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the sys...A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics assumed to be governed by controlling eforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.All the epidemic details are factored into a single and time-dependent coefcient,the functional form of this coefcient is found through four constraints,including notably the existence of an inflexion point and a maximum.The model is solved to give a log-normal distribution for the spread rate,for which a Shannon entropy can be defined.The only parameter,that characterizes the width of the distribution function,is uniquely determined through maximizing the rate of entropy production.This entropy-based thermodynamic(EBT)model predicts the number of hospitalized cases with a reasonable accuracy for SARS in the year 2003.This EBT model can be of use for potential epidemics such as avian influenza and H7N9 in China.展开更多
The genetic models are greatly important in the analysis of genetic epidemiologic studies and many of the studies are conducted using the trend test under the additive model. However, for many complex diseases and tra...The genetic models are greatly important in the analysis of genetic epidemiologic studies and many of the studies are conducted using the trend test under the additive model. However, for many complex diseases and traits, the underlying genetic model for a genetic locus is usually uncertain. So a robust test free of genetic model is appropriate. In this paper, the authors propose a model-embedded trend test by incorporating Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium information and obtain the explicit formula to calculate its statistical significance. Extensive simulation studies show the proposed test is more robust than the existing procedures. Finally, a real application is further analyzed to show the performance of the proposed test.展开更多
文摘A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics assumed to be governed by controlling eforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.All the epidemic details are factored into a single and time-dependent coefcient,the functional form of this coefcient is found through four constraints,including notably the existence of an inflexion point and a maximum.The model is solved to give a log-normal distribution for the spread rate,for which a Shannon entropy can be defined.The only parameter,that characterizes the width of the distribution function,is uniquely determined through maximizing the rate of entropy production.This entropy-based thermodynamic(EBT)model predicts the number of hospitalized cases with a reasonable accuracy for SARS in the year 2003.This EBT model can be of use for potential epidemics such as avian influenza and H7N9 in China.
基金partial supported by Special National Key Research and Development Plan under Grant No.2016YFD0400206the Breakthrough Project of Strategic Priority Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant No.XDB13040600+2 种基金Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciencethe National Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.11371353,11661080,61134013Special Fund of the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences for Scientific Research Cooperation
文摘The genetic models are greatly important in the analysis of genetic epidemiologic studies and many of the studies are conducted using the trend test under the additive model. However, for many complex diseases and traits, the underlying genetic model for a genetic locus is usually uncertain. So a robust test free of genetic model is appropriate. In this paper, the authors propose a model-embedded trend test by incorporating Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium information and obtain the explicit formula to calculate its statistical significance. Extensive simulation studies show the proposed test is more robust than the existing procedures. Finally, a real application is further analyzed to show the performance of the proposed test.
