挑战与动因:日本参加TPP谈判的战略意图探析

TPP是一种旨在实现贸易、投资及人员往来等全面自由化的高水平自由贸易协定。野田内阁意图通过TPP提升日本企业的国际竞争力,推动国内农业的结构性改革,重振日本经济;在对外关系上,则欲借此修复巩固日美同盟,配合美国牵制中国的战略布局,并在未来亚太经济一体化的进程中占据有利位置。基于上述战略意图,尽管遭致日本国内长期依赖财政补贴及贸易保护的农业部门和希望继续维持现有医疗保障体系的医师会等团体的坚决反对,面临政治分裂的风险,野田仍做出了参加TPP谈判的政治决断。

日本参加TPP的“内忧”与“外患”

文章分析了日本参加TPP谈判问题所面临的困境及其对未来内政外交走向的影响。首先,在经济方面,日本因参加TPP谈判将面临是继续保护农业还是扩展制造业出口以振兴经济的矛盾;其次,在政治方面,由于参加TPP谈判日本将面临由于各利益集团冲突引起的国内政治矛盾;第三,在外交方面,因为参加TPP谈判,日本将与美国围绕以农业为主的市场开放的程度问题进行博弈,同时也陷入如何协调美国市场与中国市场的关系的矛盾。文章认为日本将不会在短期内解决这些矛盾,而只能在国内政界重新整合与国际格局进一步发展变化的过程中逐步得到解决。

日本决定加入TPP谈判的双层博弈分析——基于日经中文网1的相关报道

日本通过国内、国际两个层次的博弈作出了加入TPP谈判的决定。在国内层次上,日本政府主要通过制定农业改革政策、在TPP谈判中要求设置"例外品种"等措施减轻了来自反对派"农协"的压力,并得到了产业界及国内民众的支持;在国际层次上,日本在得到不必在谈判之前事先承诺单方面取消所有关税,与美国确认双方存在应予以照顾的"敏感产品"的承诺的同时,也满足了美国要求日本开放农业、美国汽车业界要求的在谈判中维持美国的汽车进口关税、日本以简单手续扩大进口美国汽车等相关诉求。

Coordinated Development of Rural Tourism and Economy——with a Case of Lianyungang City

Rural tourism is a tourism type al owing interplay between tourists and targeted areas in rural areas. ln order to maintain coordinated development between rural tourism and local economy, with Lianyungang City as an example, some countermeasures and suggestions were proposed, such as establishing benefit feed-back system, forging brands and ruling management system.

Study on Controlling Tobacco Root-knot Nematode by Fertilizer and Pesticide Synergy

Synergism between pesticide and fertilizer in controlling root-knot nematode was investigated by field randomized block test. The results showed that the best control efficiency was shared by 0.5% abamectin and 25% mixed pesticide （abamectin and carbosulfan）, 24.1% and 28.0%, respectively. The positive effect was found by synergism between pesticide and fertiUzer in controlling reot-knot nematode. The economic benefit and agricultural benefit were gained by controlling root-knot nematodes. The results suggested that the agricultural and ecological benefit could be gained through the integration of agricultural practice and chemical technology in controlling root-knot nematode.

Research on Agricultural Economic Development under the Background of Urbanization

Agriculture is the basic industry of China and the support of all other industries. In order to clarify the impact of urbanization on China＇s agriculture, a cointegration test was conducted between the urbanization rate and the total agricultural output value in China during the past 30 years of 1986-2015. The results showed that the development of urbanization and agricultural economy had no severe effect on weakening the agricultural economy in China, while on the contrary, there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two, which was only limited to a certain range, and in the future high development of urbanization of China, the development of agricultural economy would face great challenges. Therefore, China should specify cultivated land use, strengthen the supervision standard of land circulation; increase investment in science and technology, improve the efficiency of agricultural output; optimize financial support for agriculture, enhance the enthusiasm of farmers; cultivate new agricultural operators, promote the process of agricultural industrialization, so as to form economies of scale and explore a new road of urbanization which is not at the expense of the cost of agricultural economy.

Changing Rural Development Inequality in Jilin Province, Northeast China

Rural development inequality is an important practical issue during the course of full establishment of a ′moderately well-off society′ in modern China,and the objective understanding and evaluation of the status and regional inequality of rural development can provide scientific basis for ′building a new countryside′ and coordination development of rural-urban regions.Based on the county-level data of 2000,2005 and 2009,this paper examines the rural development inequality of Jilin Province in Northeast China by establishing a rural development index.The spatio-temporal dynamic patterns and domain factors are discussed by using the method of exploratory spatial data analysis and multi-regression model.The results are shown as follows.Firstly,most of the counties were in lower development level,which accounted for 58.3%,62.5% and 66.7% of the total counties in 2000,2005 and 2009,respectively.The characteristics of spatial inequality were very obvious at county level.For example,rural development level of Changchun Proper and the proper of seven prefecture-level cities were much higher than that of the surrounding regions.The counties in the eastern and northern Jilin Province were the lowest regions of rural development level,while the middle counties were the rapid growth areas in rural economy.Secondly,Moran′s I of rural development index(RDI) was 0.01,–0.16 and –0.06 in 2000,2005 and 2009,respectively,which indicated that spatial agglomeration of RDI was not obvious in Jilin Province,and took on the characteristic of random distribution.The counties of both the units and its adjacent units have higher development level(HH) were transferred from the western areas to the eastern areas,while the countries of both the units and its adjacent units have lower development level(LL) were diffused from the eastern to middle and western Jilin Province.Finally,the result of multi-regression analysis showed that the improvement of agricultural production condition,development of agricultural economics and the adjustment of industrial structure were the domain factors affecting rural development inequality of Jilin Province in the later ten years.

Animal Production Systems in Algeria： Transformation and Tendencies in the Setif Area

Algeria registers only 0.25 ha of agricultural surface per capita. This indicates very low agricultural capacities. Otherwise agricultural activities are concentrated in a narrow fringe of the Northern part of the country where the dominant climate is semi-arid with very irregular rainfalls. A majority of farms produces its main part of income from cereal crops--livestock association system. However, the diversity of the climate and the physical environment, on one hand, and the agricultural policies on the other hand, induce major transformations in this system. Transformations are also the result of a significant demographic growth in rural area. In this context, significant issues appear in term of resource＇s uses and systems＇ sustainability. To shed light in the actual situation, this study, based on a survey of 90 owners, shows that： the intensification can constitute a threat on the pastoral resources; the weakness of the farms encourages the generalization of practices characterised by a weak feed autonomy and a bad management of stock fodders; the animal interspecific integration and partial intensification are positive if they follow models which ensure autonomy, performance and optimal pastoral resource management.

The Importance of the Creation of CEFTA-2006 for the Western Balkans＇ Trade Exchange of Goods

By integrating 32 bilateral free trade agreements, CEFTA-2006 became the first multilateral free trade agreement of the Western Balkan countries. Signed at the end of 2006, it was supposed to establish a free trade area among the following member-states： Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Moldova, Monte Negro and Serbia.l The free trade area was supposed to be fully functional by the end of 2010 and should provide trade liberalization by elimination of all tariff and non-tariff barriers for agricultural and non-agricultural goods, as well as trade facilitation by simplification of rules of origin and transit procedures. It should also provide mutual recognition of national sanitary, phytosanitary and technical standards. The free trade area should also enable free trade of services, full protection of intellectual rights, fair rules of public procurement procedures and liberalization of capital investment. The beginning of the creation of the free trade area of the Western Balkan countries created a positive effect upon the increment of the trade exchange of goods among its member-states. However, the weak individual economic capacity of each of them immediately caused a decrement in the exports of goods towards trading partners out of CEFTA-2006. Positive effects realized in the beginning of the creation of the free-trade area were very soon annulated by the influence of the economic crises in 2008. At present, the region experiences a slight, but very slow recovery.

Study on the coordinated development of the rural infrastructure and the rural economy

Through the construction of the comprehensive evaluation index system and the coordination degree model of the rural in- frastructure and the rural economic development level, the author carries out an empirical analysis on the rural infrastructure and economic coordinated development in the country＇s 31 regions. Research shows that the gap between the levels of the development of the rural in-frastructure in China is large, presenting the gradually reducing gradient distribution from the east to the west. The rural infrastructure de- velopment level has significant positive correlation with the level of economic development. For those provinces of the high development level of the rural economy, the infrastructure construction level is also relatively high. From the view of the coordination degree, it presents the obvious ＂dumbbell＂ shape, and there are more provinces which belong to the high quality coordination and the serious imbalance, with the coordinated degree in the eastern regions obviously higher than that in the central and western regions.

Research on the Shaanxi Urbanization and Agricultural Modernization Coordinated Development Pattern based on Game Theory

In this paper, we research on the Shaanxi urbanization and agricultural modernization coordinated development pattern based on the game theory. At present, the industrialization and the urbanization, agricultural modernization in our country obviously lags behind, which hindered the synchronous development of them. Therefore, with the internal relations between the empirical researches, we explore influence of industrialization and urbanization of agricultural modernization and path, to promote three synchronous developments which have important practical significance. Based on vector autoregressive model and game thinking, at the same time, we analysis the influence degree of the industrialization and urbanization of agricultural modernization and path in order to provide experience for the synchronous development of reference.

Payment for Ecosystem Services Markets and Rural Development in BrazilmA Co-evolutionary Approach

The article discusses the payment for ecosystem or environmental services markets in Brazil with a critical review, based on the ecological economics literature and focused on the concept of co-evolution. It is argued that the mainstream approach which considers ecosystem services as an externality has many shortcomings and fails to consider institutional and political aspects---all very critical for the design and implementation of a PES （Payment for ecosystem services） project or program. The complexity and the diversity of co-evolutionary relations between ecosystem services and socioeconomic activities are spatially or territorially specific. In this sense, different types of PES market have to adapt and coevolve with different ongoing development processes.

Towards Regional Synergy: Reconciling Rangeland Ecological Functioning with Forage Production of Cultivated Pasture

Animal husbandry and crop farming are specialized for development in separate areas on the Tibetan Plateau. Such a pattern of isolation has led to current concerns of rangeland and farming system degradation due to intensive land use. The crop-livestock integration, however, has been proven to increase food and feed productivity thorough niche complementarity, and is thereby especially effective for promoting ecosystem resilience. Regional synergy has emerged as an integrated approach to reconcile rangeland livestock with forage crop production. It moves beyond the specialized sectors of animal husbandry and intensive agriculture to coordinate them through regional coupling. Therefore, crop-livestock integration(CLI) has been suggested as one of the effective solutions to forage deficit and livestock production in grazing systems. But it is imperative that CLI moves forward from the farm level to the regional scale, in order to secure regional synergism during agro-pastoral development. The national key R & D program, Technology and Demonstration of Recovery and Restoration of Degraded Alpine Ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau, aims to solve the problems of alpine grassland degradation by building up a grass-based animal husbandry technology system that includes synergizing forage production and ecological functioning, reconciling the relationship between ecology, forage production and animal husbandry, and achieving the win-win goals of curbing grassland degradation and changing the development mode of animal husbandry. It is imperative to call for regional synergy through integrating ecological functioning with ecosystem services, given the alarming threat of rangeland degradation on the Tibetan Plateau. The series of papers in this issue, together with those published previously, provide a collection of rangeland ecology and management studies in an effort to ensure the sustainable use and management of the alpine ecosystems.

Functional Transformation of Rural Homesteads:A Field Survey of Poyang County,Jiangxi Province,China

The rural homestead is a major part of the rural land system,which is an important carrier of various rural issues such as rural decline,rural hollowing and others.Great changes have occurred in China’s rural areas,while the rural homestead has also undergone transformation.Based on summarizing the multi-functional classification of homesteads from previous research,this study divided and defined the population bearing function,assets,and residential function of homesteads from the perspective of functional improvement according to the results of a survey questionnaire.Using Poyang County as the case study,this paper analyzed the functional transformation of rural homesteads through the model of coordinated transformation degree.The results demonstrated the following trends.(1)From 2000 to 2017,the transformation degrees of rural homestead functions in Poyang County have obviously improved overall.(2)The high value areas of the transformation degrees were mainly distributed in the northern hilly region and around Poyang Lake,while most of the low value areas were distributed in the plain areas near the county town.(3)In the regions with better location conditions and resource endowments,the basic conditions and trend of non-agriculturalization of the population,capital and other factors are more significant.According to the differentiation of rural homestead transformations which occurred in different regions,the government could put forward targeted development suggestions for the future.

Synergic Relationship between the Grain for Green Program and the Agricultural Eco-economic System in Ansai County based on the VAR model

Understanding the synergic relationship between the Grain for Green Program(GGP)and the agricultural eco-economic system is important for designing an optimized agricultural eco-economic system and developing a highly efficient structure of an agricultural industry chain and a resource chain.This study used Ansai County time series data from 1995 to 2014,applied vector autoregressive(VAR)models and used tools such as Granger causality,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,to explore the synergy between the GGP and the agricultural eco-economic system.The results revealed a synergic and reciprocal relationship between the GGP and the agroeconomic system.The contribution of the GGP to the agroecosystem reached 34%,which was significantly higher than either its largest contribution to the agroeconomic system(20.8%)or its peak contribution to the agrosocial system(26.7%).The agroeconomic system had the most prominent influence on the GGP,with a year-round stable contribution of up to 55.3%.These results were consistent with reality.However,the impact of the GGP on the agricultural eco-economic system was weaker than the effect of the agricultural eco-economic system on the GGP.The lag of variable stationarity after the shock was relatively short,indicating that optimal coupling had not formed between the GGP and the agricultural eco-economic system.On the basis of enhancing the ecological functions,we should construct the agricultural industry-resource chain such that it focuses on promoting the effective utilization of resources in the region.In addition,the development of a carbon sink industry can be used to manifest the ecological values of ecological functions.