“台湾省”一节教案实录

·教学重点 1.台湾省的地理位置、范围. 2.台湾省的自然环境和自然资源.

台湾“精省”工程改革及其政治影响刍议

1997年台湾地区的"精省"工程改革,使得台湾省的地位、组织发生了实质性变化,由原来的地方自治团体性质的公法人变成了不具有地方自治团体性质的公法人。省虽然不再是地方自治团体,但仍具有地方制度层级的地位。较之台湾省在1997年"精省"工程改革后才被虚级化,福建省则早巳被虚置,所以虽经1997年"精省"工程改革,福建省的地位仍不受影响。精省"工程改革对台湾纵向行政体制产生了重大影响。

台湾地区乡镇市体制演进与立法过程

台湾地区乡(镇、市)体制确定之依据源于1950年4月公布的"台湾省各县市实施地方自治纲要"的行政命令,而后于1994年7月经由"省县自治法"与"直辖市自治法"的立法而得以法制化。1999年,"立法院"将"省县自治法"与"直辖市自治法"以及"台湾省政府功能业务与组织调整暂行条例"等三项自治法令加以统整,通过"地方制度法",明确"省政府"为"行政院"派出机关,并规定"直辖市"、"县(市)"与"乡(镇、市)"等皆为地方自治团体,依法办理自治事项,并执行上级政府委办事项,亦使得台湾地区的地方行政制度进入新局面。

Prediction of the Hualian Earthquakes in Taiwan and an Extended Discussion on the Method of Commensurability

The method of commensurability was used by the authors to predict the great earthquake of magnitude 7.5 that occurred on March 31,2002 in Taiwan 70km away from Hualian. Analyzing the earthquakes of magnitude≥7.0 which occurred in the Hualian area of Taiwan within the 20th century, the authors discovered that the occurrences of the earthquakes are commensurable. The earthquakes of magnitude 7.6 which occurred in Hualian of Taiwan, on September 20th, 1999 and of magnitude 7.5 which occurred 70 km away from Hualian, on March 31th, 2002 appeared at the commensurable point of K=2 and the period times the golden section, respectively. An extended discussion is carried out on the method of commensurability and its implied physical significance, especially on the contribution of the commensurable periodic extension made by Prof. Weng Wenbo.

A Scheme of Vegetation Classification of Taiwan, China

The complexity of natural conditions leads to the complexity of vegetation types of Taiwan of China, which has both tropical and cold-temperate vegetation types, and could be depicted as the vegetation miniature of China or even for the world. The physiognomic-floristic principle was adopted for the vegetation classification of Taiwan. The units of rank from top to bottom are: class of vegetation-type, order of vegetation-type, vegetation-type, alliance group, alliance and association. The high-rank units (class, order and vegetation-type) are classified by ecological physiognomy, while the median and lower units by the species composition of community. At the same time the role of dominant species and character species will also be considered. The dominant species are the major factor concerned with the median ranks (alliance group, and alliance) because they are the chief components of community, additionally their remarkable appearance is easy to identify; the character species (or diagnostic species) are for relatively low ranks (association) because they will clearly show the interspecies relation-ship and the characteristics of community. According to this principle, vegetation of Taiwan is classi-fied into five classes of vegetation-types (forests, thickets, herbaceous vegetation, rock fields vegetation, swamps and aquatic vegetation), 29 orders of vegetation-types (cold-temperate needle-leaved forests, cool-temperate needle-leaved forests, warm-temperate needle-leaved forests, warm needle-leaved forests, deciduous broad-leaved forests, mixed evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved forests, evergreen mossy forests, evergreen sclerophyllous forests, evergreen broad-leaved forests, tropical rain forests, tropical monsoon forests, coastal forests, warm bamboo forests, evergreen needle-leaved thickets, sclerophyllous thickets, deciduous broad-leaved thickets, evergreen broad-leaved thickets, xerothermic thorn-succulent thickets, bamboo thickets, meadows, sparse shrub grasslands, savannahic grasslands, sparse scree communities, chasmophytic vegetation, woody swamps, herbaceous swamps, moss bogs, fresh water aquatic vegetation, salt water aquatic vegetation) and 53 vegetation-types. The main alliances of each vegetation-type are described.

Clinical characteristics and prognostic factors of splenic abscess:A review of 67 cases in a single medical center of Taiwan

AIM： To analyze 67 cases of splenic abscess in a medica center of Taiwan during a period of 19 years. METHODS： From January 1986 to December 2004, a total of 67 patients with splenic abscess were enrolled for the retrospective study. The clinical characteristics, underlying diseases, organism spectra, therapeutic methods, APACHE Ⅱ scores, and mortality rates were analyzed. RESULTS： There were 41 males and 26 females with the mean age of 54.14-14.1 years. Multiple splenic abscesses （MSA） account for 28.4% and solitary splenic abscess in 71.6% of the patients. Twenty-six of sixtyseven patients （35.8%） had extrasplenic abscesses, with leading site of liver （34.6%）, Microbiological cultures were positive in 58 patients （86.6%）, with 71.8% in blood culture and 93.5% in abscess culture. Gram negative bacillus （GNB） infection predominated （55.2%）, with leading pathogen of Klebslella pneumoniae （22.4%）, followed by gram positive coccus （GPC） infection （31%）. Splenectomy was performed in 26 patients （38.8%）, percutaneous drainage or aspiration in 21 （31.3%）, and antibiotic therapy alone in 20 patients （29.9%）. Eventually, 12 of 67 patients expired （17.9 %）. By statistics, spleen infected with GNB was likely to develop multiple abscesses compared with infection with GPC （P=0.036）. Patients with GNB infection （P=0.009） and multiple abscesses （P=0.011） experienced a higher mortality rate than patients with GPC infection and solitary abscess. The mean APACHE Ⅱ score of 12 ex- pired patients （16.3±3.2） was significantly higher than that of the 55 survivals （7.2 ± 3.8） （P〈 0.001）. CONCLUSION： MSA, GNB infection, and high APACHE Ⅱ scores are poor prognostic factors. Early surgical intervention should be encouraged when these risk factors are present.

Clinical correlation of gallstone disease in a Chinese population in Taiwan:Experience at Cheng Hsin General Hospital

AIM： TO explore the prevalence of gallstone disease （GSD） in Taiwan and condition-associated factors related to it. METHODS： We studied a total of 2386 healthy adults （1235 males and 1151 females） voluntarily admitted to Cheng Hsin General Hospital for a paid physical check-up between January 2002 and December 2002. Blood samples and ultrasound sonography results were collected. RESULTS： The overall prevalence of GSD among this study-population was 5.3%, including 1.7% （n=40） having a single stone, 2.3% （n = 55） having multiple stones, and 1.3% （n = 31） having cholecystectomy. The prevalence revealed a statistically significant increase with increasing age （P〈 0.0001）. Females exhibited a greater prevalence of multiple stones than did males （3.0% vs 1.7%, P= 0.04）. Using multiple logistic regression analysis, the following appeared to be significantly related to the prevalence of GSD： older age （40-49 years vs 〈40 years, OR= 1.63 [95% CI： 0.76-3.48], 50-59 years vs 〈40 years, OR=4.93 [95% CI： 2.43-9.99], 60-69 years vs 〈40 years, OR = 6.82 [95% CI： 3.19-14.60], ≥70 years vs 〈40 years, OR= 10.65 [95% CI： 4.78-23.73]）, higher BMI （≥27 kg/m^2 vs 〈24 kg/m^2, adjusted OR= 1.74 [95% CI： 1.04-2.88]）, and higher FPG （≥ 126 mg/dL vs 〈110 mg/dL, OR= 1.71, 95% CI： 1.01-2.96）. CONCLUSION： Older age （≥50 years）, obesity （BMI ≥ 27 kg/m^2）, and type 2 diabetes （FPG ≥126 mg/dL） are associated with the prevalence of GSD.

Prevalence of HFE mutations and relation to serum (?)ron status in patients with chronic hepatitis C and patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in Taiwan

AIM: To assess the prevalence of the two mutations, C282Y and H63D of HFE gene, in healthy subjects, patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC), and patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in Taiwan and to explore the contribution of the HFE mutation on serum iron stores in CHC and NAFLD groups.METHODS: We examined C282Y and H63D mutations of HFE gene in 125 healthy subjects, 29 patients with CHC,and 33 patients with NAFLD. The serum iron markers,including ferritin, iron, and total iron binding capacity (TIBC),were assessed in all patients.RESULTS: All of the healthy subjects and patients were free from C282Y mutation. The prevalence of H63D heterozygosity was 4/125 (3.20%) in healthy subjects, 2/29(6.90%) in CHC group, and 1/33 (3.03%) in NAFLD group.The healthy subjects showed no significant difference in the prevalence of H63D mutation as compared with the CHC or NAFLD group. Increased serum iron store was found in 34.48% of CHC patients and 36.36% of NAFLD patients.In three patients of H63D heterozygosity, only one CHC patient had increased serum iron store. There was no significant difference in the prevalence of HFE mutations between patients with increased serum iron store and those without in CHC or NAFLD group.CONCLUSION: The HFE mutations may not contribute to iron accumulation in the CHC or NAFLD group even when serum iron overload is observed in more than one-third of these patients in Taiwan.

A Cenozoic tectono-sedimentary model of the Tainan Basin, the South China Sea: evidence from a multi-channel seismic profile

The Tainan Basin is one of the set of Cenozoic extensional basins along northern margin of the South China Sea that experienced extension and subsequently thermal subsidence. The Tainan Basin is close to the Taiwan Arc-Trench System and straddles a transition zone between oceanic and continental crust. A new regional multi-channel seismic profile （973-01） across the region of NE South China Sea is introduced in this paper. In seismic stratigraphy and structural geology, a model of Cenozoic tectono-sedimentation of the Tainan Basin is established. The results show that three stages can be suggested in Tainan Basin; In Stage A （Oligocene （？）-Lower Miocene） the stratigraphy shows restricted rifting, indicating crustal extension. Terrestrial sedi- ments mostly filled the faulted sags of the North Depression on the continental shelf. Structural highs, including the Central Uplift, blocked material transportation to the South Depression in abyssal basin. In Stage B the Tainan Basin （Middle-Upper Miocene） exhibits a broad subsidence resulting from the post-rifting thermal cooling. The faulted-sags in North Depression had been filled up. Terrestrial materials were transported over the structural highs and deposited directly in the South Depression through sub- marine gullies or canyons. This sedimentation resulted in a crucial change in the slope to a modem shape. In Stage C （Latest Miocene-Recent） a phase change from extension to compression took place due to the orogeny caused by the overthrusting of the Luzon volcanic arc. Many inverse structures, such as thrusts, fault bend folds, and a regional unconformity were formed. Forland basin began developing.

Peanut consumption and reduced risk of colorectal cancer in women:A prospective study in Taiwan

AIM： To examine whether peanut consumption is associated with a reduced risk of colorectal cancer in a prospective cohort with a 10-year follow-up. METHODS： In 1990-1992, residents （12026 men and 11917 women aged 30 to 65 years） in 7 townships, Taiwan, were interviewed and recruited into a cancerscreening cohort and annually followed up. Colorectal cancer cases in this cohort were identified from cancer registry and death certificates. Incidence rates of this disease by the end of 2001 were calculated by gender for the primary study variable and covariates. The dietary intake was assessed by means of weekly food frequency measures, including frequently consumed food groups and folk dishes including sweet potato, bean products, peanut products, pickled foodstuffs, nitrated or smoked foodstuffs. RESULTS： During the study period, 107 new colorectal cancer cases （68 men and 39 women） were confirmed. The multivariate Cox＇s proportional hazard model showed that the relative risk （RR） of peanut consumption was 0.73 [95% confidence interval （CI） = 0.44-1.21] for men and 0.42 （95% CI = 0.21-0.84） for women. However, frequent intake of pickled foodstuffs was harmful for women （RR= 2.15, 95% CI=0.99-4.65）. The risk of colorectal cancer was also elevated among cigarette smokers but not significant （P〈 0.05）.CONCLUSION： This study suggests that frequent intake of peanut and its products may reduce colorectal cancer risk in women, demonstrating the anti-proliferating effect of peanut intake.

Lewis blood genotypes of peptic ulcer and gastric cancer patients in Taiwan

AIM： The Lewis b （Le^b） antigen has been implicated as a possible binding site for attachment of Helicobacter pylori （H pylon） to gastric mucosa. However, studies both supporting and denying this association have been reported in the literature. Differences in secretor （Se） genotype have been suggested as a possible reason for previous discrepancies. Therefore, we investigated the relationship between Le and Se genotypes and Hpylori infection rates in people with peptic ulcer or gastric cancer. METHODS： Peripheral blood samples were obtained from 347 patients with endoscopic evidence of peptic ulcer disease （235 cases of duodenal ulcer, 62 of gastric ulcer, and 50 of combined duodenal ulcer/gastric ulcer） and 51 patients with gastric cancer on endoscopy. Peripheral blood specimens from 101 unrelated normal volunteers were used as controls. Lewis phenotype was determined using an antibody method, whereas Le and Se genotypes were determined by DNA amplification and restriction enzyme analysis. Gastric or duodenal biopsies taken from patients with endoscopic evidence of peptic ulcer or gastric cancer were cultured for Hpylotri Isolates were identified as Hpylori by morphology and production of urease and catalase. The Hpyloriinfection status was also evaluated by rapid urease test （CLO test）, and urea breath test （13^C-UBT）. Results of studies were analyzed by chi-square test （taken as significant）. RESULTS： Hpyloriwas isolated from 83.7% （303/347） of patients with peptic ulcer disease. Statistical analysis did not show any significant difference in Lewis phenotype or genotype between patients with and without Hpylori infection. No significant association was found between Lewis genotype and peptic ulcer or gastric cancer.CONCLUSION： Lewis blood genotype or phenotype may not play a role in the pathogenesis of Hpyloriinfection. However, bacterial strain differences and the presence of more than one attachment mechanism may limit the value of epidemiological studies in elucidating this matter.

A community-based epidemiological study of elevated serum alanine aminotransferase levels in Kinmen, Taiwan

AIM: To explore any gender-related differences in prevalence of and condition-associated factors related to an elevated serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level amongst residents of Kinmen, Taiwan. METHODS: A total of 11 898 of a potential 20 112 regional residents aged 30 years or more completed a related questionnaire that was carried out by the Yang-Ming Crusade between 1991 and 1994 inclusively, with blood samples being collected by public nurses. The overall questionnaire response rate was 59.3% (52.4% for males and 66.0% for females). RESULTS: The prevalence of an elevated serum ALT level for this sub-population was found to be 7.2%, the prevalence revealing a statistically significant decrease with increasing population age (P<0.0001). Males exhibited a greater prevalence of elevated serum ALT level than did females (9.4% vs 5.3%, P<0.0001). Using multiple logistic regression analysis, in addition to male gender, a younger age, greater waist circumference, presence of type-2 diabetes and hyperuricemia were the significant factors associated with an elevated serum ALT level for both males and females. Gender-related differences as regards associated factors were also revealed. For males, obesity was significantly related to an elevated serum ALT level (OR = 1.28, 95%CI: 1.00-1.66) but this was not so for females (OR = 1.09, 95%CI: 0.84-1.42). Hypertriglyceridemia (OR = 1.80, 95%CI: 1.36-2.39) and hyperuricemia (OR = 1.61, 95%CI: 1.03-2.52) were significantly related to elevated serum ALT levels only for females. CONCLUSION: Several gender-related differences were noted pertaining to the prevalence of and relationship between obesity, hypertriglyceridemia and hyperuricemia and elevated serum ALT level in the present study.

Polymorphisms of uridine-diphosphoglucuronosyltransferase 1A7 gene in Taiwan Chinese

AIM: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of uridinediphosphoglucuro -nosyltransferase 1A7 (UGT1A7) gene are associated with the development of orolaryngeal cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma, and colorectal cancer. We performed this research to establish the techniques for determining UGT1A7 gene and basic data of this gene for Taiwan Chinese. METHODS: We collected blood samples from 112 healthy adults and 505 subjects carrying different genotypes of UGT1A1, and determined the promoter area and the entire sequence of UGT1A7 exon 1 by polymerase chain reaction. We designed appropriate primers and restriction enzymes to detect variant UGT1A7 genotypes found in the study subjects. RESULTS: Six SNPs at nucleotides 33, 387, 391, 392, 622, and 756 within the coding region of UGT1A7 exon 1 were found. The incidence of UGT1A7*l/*2 (N129R131W208/ K129K131W208) was predominant (35.7%) while that of UGT1A7 *3/*3 (K129K131R208/K129K131R208) was the least (2.7%). The allele frequency of UGT1A7*3, which exists in a considerable proportion of Caucasians (0.361) and Japanese (0.255), was identified only to be 0.152 in our study subjects. A novel variation at nucleotide -57 in the upstream was found, which was associated with SNPs at nucleotides 33, 387, 391, 392, and 622 in one of the variant haplotypes. The nucleotide changes at positions 387, 391, 392 and 756 were in linkage in another variant haplotype. The allele frequency of UGT1A7*3 was 0.018, 0.158, 0.242, 0.433, and 0.920 in subjects carrying wild, A(TA)6TAA/A(TA)7TAA, A(TA)7TAA/A(TA)7TAA, 211G/211A, and 211A/211A variants of UGT1A1 gene, respectively. By using natural or mutagenesis primers, we successfully detected the variations at nucleotides -57, 33, 387, and 622 with the restriction enzymes HpyCH4 Ⅳ, TaqⅠ, AflⅡ, and Rsa Ⅰ, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that the allele frequencies of UGT1A7 gene in Taiwan Chinese are different from those in Caucasians and Japanese. Carriage of the nucleotide 211- variant UGT1A gene is highly associated with UGT1A7*3. The restriction-enzymedigestion method for the determination of nucleotides-57 (or 33, or 622) and 387 can rapidly identify genotypes of UGT1A7 in an individual.

Expression and prognostic role of molecular markers in 99 KIT-positive gastric stromal tumors in Taiwan Residents

AIM： TO elucidate the prognostic role and relationship of three molecular markers such as tumor suppressor gene p53, proliferating cell nuclear antigen （PCNA） and Ki-67 in gastric stromal tumor. METHODS： A total of 108 surgically resected gastric smooth muscle tumor specimens were collected from January 1987 to December 1999. Immunohistochemical studies were performed on the paraffin sections of 99 of 108 CDl17-positive tumors with antibodies of p53, PCNA, and Ki-67. Immunoreactivity of three molecular markers was recorded by labeling index （LI, %） and was analyzed for clinicopathologic and survival correlation. RESULTS： Of the 99 cases, immunostaining revealed that 52 patients （52.5%） had p53, and 37 patients （37.3%） had Ki-67 immunoreactivity （defined as 〉10% of LI）. All patients （100%） had PCNA immunoreactivity ranging from 12% to 93% of LI, divided into high or low by median. Statistics revealed that LI of three markers positively correlate to each other （P〈0.01） and to microscopic tumor mitotic counts （P〈0.001）. By combination, patients with ≥2 markers （positive or high） in tumors had early tumor recurrence （P〈0.001） and unfavorable outcome （P〈0.001）. Univariate analysis indicated that patients with tumor size 〉5 cm （P=0.003）, tumor mitosis 〉5/50 HPF （P〈0.001）, p53 immunoreactivity （P=0.001）, Ki-67 immunoreactivity （P=0.026）, high PCNA LI （P=0.015） and male gender （P=0.036） were six predictors for early disease recurrence. Subsequent multivariate analysis revealed that mitotic counts, tumor size, and p53 immunoreactivity were three independent prognostic factors for both disease free and overall survival of patients. By combination of three independent prognostic factors for grouping, we found higher tumor recurrence rate （P〈0.001） and shorter survival （P〈0.001） existed in groups with increasing factors. CONCLUSION： We first provide the prognostic value and linkage of three molecular markers in GISTs. The combination of three factors （p53, tumor size, and tumor mitosis） provides a more powerful prediction of prognosis than any single factor does.

Evaluation of urine ELISA test for detecting Helicobacter pylori infection in Taiwan: A prospective study

AIM： To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility of a new ELISA （URINELISA） test for detecting Helicobacter pylori （H pylorl） antibody in the urine of Taiwan Residents population. METHODS： In this prospective study, 317 consecutive dyspeptic patients （171 men, 146 women; mean age, 51.0 years） were included. They underwent gastroendoscopy for evaluation. Invasive tests, including culture, histology, and rapid urease test （RUT）, and non-invasive ^13C-urea breath test were preformed. At the same time, urine specimens were collected for URINELISA. The status of H pylori infection was considered as positive when either culture was positive, or when two of the other, RUT, histology or 13C-UBT, were positive. RESULTS： The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of URINELISA are 91.7% （211/230）, 90.8% （79/87）, 96.3% （211/219）, and 80.6% （79/98） respectively. CONCLUSION： This URINELISA test is reliable, inexpensive and easy-to-use. The high diagnostic accuracy warrants the use of URINELISA as a first-line screening tool for diagnosis of Hpyloriinfection in untreated patients.

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON STRUCTURE OF WINTERTIME TYPHOON NANMADOL IN 2004

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the structure of a wintertime typhoon named Nanmadol that landed on Taiwan 4 December, 2004 has been examined in this paper. It is found that Nanmadol looks similar in structure and time evolution to summer typhoons;the central part of it is warm and humid, and the convergence is observed in the lower troposphere while there is divergence in the upper troposphere. The differences between wintertime and summertime typhoons are found. The southwest stream flow in the lower troposphere and cyclonic disturbance in the upper troposphere seem significantly weaker in Nanmadol than in summertime typhoons. The EOF analysis performed for sea level pressure (SLP) of Nanmadol shows that about 90% of the total variance of temporal changes in typhoon circulation can be explained by two leading EOF modes of EOF1 and EOF2. EOF1 shows the structure and intensity variations of Nanmadol while EOF2 shows the changes in environmental SLP distributions that influences the moving direction of Nanmadol.

Sources and Flows of Embodied CO_2 Emissions in Import and Export Trade of China

This paper uses the Global Trade Analysis Project(version 7)database to calculate embodied CO2emissions in bilateral trade between China and other countries(regions)based on input-output methods.The sources and flows of embodied CO2emissions in import and export trade of China are analyzed.Results show that the flows of embodied CO2emissions in export trade are highly concentrated.The main flows to the United States(US)and Japan account for 1/4 and 1/7 of the total CO2emissions in export trade,respectively.Concentrated flows of total exports and small differences in export structure are the main reasons for the highly concentrated export trade.The sources of embodied CO2emissions in import trade have relatively low concentration.Taiwan Province of China,Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China,US,Russia,Republic of Korea,and Japan account for around 7.72%–12.67%of the total embodied CO2emissions in import trade.The relative dispersion of import sources,the impact of the import structure,and the level of production technology in importing countries caused low concentration of CO2emissions in import trade.Overall,the embodied CO2emissions in the export trade of China are higher than those in import trade.As a result,production-based CO2emissions are higher than consumption-based CO2emissions.The difference of 8.96×108t of CO2,which comes mainly from the US,Japan,Germany,and the United Kingdom,accounts for 58.70%of the total difference.Some suggestions,such as improving energy efficiency,alerting high carbon-intensive industries transfer,expanding the market for sharing risks,and prompting the accounting system of consumption-based CO2emissions,are proposed based on the results.

Species Diversity and Abundance Distribution of Pelagic Siphonophores in Nan Wan Bay of Taiwan, China, in Late Autumn and Early Winter

Zooplankton surveys were carried out on November 2-3 and December 8-10, 2001 at 12 stations in the Nan Wan Bay of Taiwan, China. Altogether 92 quantitative zooplankton samples were collected from subsurface water and bottom water layers with two conical plankton nets （180 cm in length, 45 cm in opening diameter, 333μm and 200 larn in mesh size）. A total of 31 species of Siphonophores were identified, among them 7 species are new records in the waters around Taiwan Island, of which Rocacea cymbiformis is a new record in China. Dominated by Chelophyes appendiculata, Bassia bassensis, Diphyes bojani, Diphyes dispar, Abylopsis eschscholtzi and Chelophyes contorta, these species accounted for over 76 % and 63 % of the total abundance in November and December. The species number and Siphonophores abundance in December （25 species, 1.99 inds/m3） were more than those in November （19 species, 0.438 inds/m3）, and they were more in the surface water layer than in the bottom layer at most sampling stations. In early winter, the offshore high salinity water mass was a main factor influencing the distribution. The sampling efficiency for two plankton nets is discussed and the seasonal variation of species number and abundance in the Nan Wan Bay is compared with that in the neighboring waters.

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping by Using Landslide RatioBased Logistic Regression:A Case Study in the Southern Taiwan

The object of the research is to compare the model performance and explain the error source of original logistic regression landslide susceptibility model(abbreviated as or-LRLSM) and landslide ratio-based logistic regression landslide susceptibility model(abbreviated as lr-LRLSM) in the Chishan watershed with a serious landslide disaster after 2009 Typhoon Morakot. The landslide inventory induced by 2009 Typhoon Morakot in South Taiwan is the main research material, while the Chishan watershed is the research area. Six variables, including elevation, slope, aspect, geological formation, accumulated rainfall, and bank erosion, were included in the two models. The performance of lr-LRLSM is better than that of or-LRLSM. The Cox & Snell R2, Nagelkerke R2 value, and the area under the relative operating characteristic curve(abbreviated as AUC) of lrLRLSM is larger than those of or-LRLSM, and the average correct ratio for the lr-LRLSM to predict landslide or non-landslide is larger than that of orLRLSM by 5.0%. The increase of the average correct ratio(abbreviated as ACR) difference from or-LRLSM to lr-LRLSM shows in slope, revised accumulated rainfall, aspect, geological formation and bank erosion variables, and only light decreases in elevation variable. The error sources of continuous variables in building the or-LRLSM is the dissimilarity between the distribution of landslide ratio and production of coefficient and characteristic values, while those of categorical variables is due to low correlation of landslide ratio and the coefficient value of each parameter. Using the classification of landslide ratio as the database to build logistic regression landslide susceptibility model(abbreviated as LRLSM) can revise the errors. The comparison of or-LRLSM and lr-LRLSM in the Chishan watershed also shows that building the landslide susceptibility model(abbreviated as LSM) by using lr-LRLSM is practical and of better performance than that by using the or-LRLSM.

Improved grey-based approach for power demand forecasting

Grey theory is a multidisciplinary and generic theory to cope with systems of poor or deficient information. We proposed in this paper an improved grey method (GM) to overcome the disadvantages of the general GM(1,1). In the improved GM(1,1), a new background value formula is deduced and Markov-chain sign estimation is imbedded into the residual modification model. We tested the efficiency and accuracy of our model by applying it to the power demand forecasting in Taiwan. Experimental results demonstrate the new method has obviously a higher prediction accuracy than the general model.