昆明假日让“回游”开始流行

“努力工作，尽情享受”是都市工蚁们的座右铭。五·一将至，大家早跃跃欲试，盘算如何享受假期。这个时候却冒出个“假日综合症”的新名词来。

滨水慢行的“回游”行为对空间设计的影响

慢行行为在城市滨水区所有活动中占比最大,由于城市水道的线性空间限制,很多慢行者在滨水空间中存在“回游”行为。这一行为,目前尚缺少针对性的相关研究。该文通过分析慢行“回游”者的行为特征及心理需求,对滨水慢行空间的设计提出具体的相应策略,以期能够提高“回游”者在滨水空间中的体验感受,推动城市设计更为精细化、人本化。

Abundance and spatial dynamics of bacterioplankton in the Seven Rila Lakes,Bulgaria

In the high mountain oligotrophic Seven Rila Lakes (2 095–2 535 m a.s.l.) bacterial abundance was recorded in July and September 2006. In July, bacterial abundance (average (3.32±2.5)×105 cell/ml) in the lakes correlated negatively with elevation, while in September (average (26.39±7.1)×105 cell/ml) this pattern was altered and the greatest abundance of bacteria occurred at the highest ((39.05±1.5)×105 cell/ml) and the lowest ((30.63±6.0)×105 cell/ml) elevated lakes. Regression analyses suggested that the principal factor controlling bacterial abundance, in both July and September, was inorganic nitrogen (NO3-N and NH4-N; R2=0.70, P<0.05). Other major regulating factors were temperature (R2=0.66, P<0.03) in July and filter-feeding zooplankton (R2=0.95, P<0.01) in September. All factors, except NO3-N, had a positive effect on bacterial abundance.

Magical, Ambiguous and Salacious： Naples in the English Travel Memoirs （1816-1841）

Through an analysis of the accounts of English travellers in Naples between 1816 and 1841, the objective of this paper is to attempt to identify an image of the city and its inhabitants without following the direction of the usual negative stereotypes common to much of the literature associated with the ＂Grand Tourist＂, a literature to which scholars and readers from the 16th to the 19th century were used. The research also aims to demonstrate through previously unknown and unheeded sources that there were not only those English travellers on their Grand Tour of the post-Restoration Bourbon Mezzogiorno （southern Italy） looking for an opportunity of comparing their own civilization （which was considered far superior） to a more fragile reality. There were also other British people who had identified, with a critical eye and spirit of observation, the existence of a Naples and a south Italy which did not merely represent the sum of stereotypes and fallacies handed down through the centuries, and thus refusing the obvious, predictable and false approach given by their own countrymen.

Associations among children's situational motivation,physical activity participation,and enjoyment in an active dance video game

Purpose:The purpose of this study was to examine the relationships between children's situational motivation and physical activity(PA)levels in a Dance Dance Revolution(DDR)program,and perceived PA enjoyment.Methods:A sample of 215 elementary children participated in a weekly 30-min DDR program.Children's situational motivation toward DDR(intrinsic motivation,identified regulation,external regulation,and amotivation)was measured,followed by the measurement of their accel-erometer-determined moderate to vigorous PA(MVPA)in DDR.Children then reported their PA enjoyment.Results:Only intrinsic motivation was positively related with children's MVPA in DDR and PA enjoyment.However,other motivational beliefs were not significantly related to MVPA and PA enjoyment.Regression analyses further suggested intrinsic motivation was the significant predictor for MVPA and PA enjoyment.Conclusion:Children who experienced fun and learned new things when playing DDR reached high PA levels in DDR,as well as developed generalized feeling states of enjoyment.

Distribution and Abundance of Pelagic Tunicates in the North Yellow Sea

In this paper, the distribution patterns and abundance of pelagic tunicates in the North Yellow Sea of China during the period 2006-2007 were analyzed. Zooplankton samples were obtained with vertical towing from bottom to surface using a WP2 plankton net(200 μm mesh size; mouth area: 0.25 m2). Five species belonging to two classes were identified: Oikopleura dioica, O. longicauda and Fritillaria borealis belonging to class Appendicularia; Salpa fusiformis and Doliolum denticulatum of class Thaliacea. O. dioica and O. longicauda were the dominant species, occurring in the samples of all four seasons, with different distribution patterns. Their maximum abundance were 1664.7 ind. m-3(spring) and 1031.7 ind. m-3(spring) respectively. Following Oikopleura spp. were D. denticulatum, which was found only in autumn with an average abundance of 149.6 ind. m-3, and S. fusiformis, which was detected all the year long except for autumn with low abundance(max. abundance 289.4 ind. m-3 in summer). Only a very small amount of F. borealis was detected in summer samples, with an average abundance of 2.7 ind. m-3. The relationship between tunicates abundances and the environmental factors was analyzed using the stepwise regression model for each species. The variation of appendicularian abundance showed a significant correlation with the surface water temperature and with the concentration of Chl-a. No relationship was found between tunicates abundance and salinity, likely due to the slight changes in surface salinity of the studied area during the four seasons. Salps abundance and that of doliolids were significantly correlated to bottom water temperature, indicating that these two species(S. fusiformis and D. denticulatum) migrate vertically in the water column. In particular D. denticulatum, known to be a warm water species, showed not only an important correlation with water temperature, but also a spatial distribution connected to the warm currents in the North Yellow Sea. The occurrence of D. denticulatum represents an interesting result never found in past research work. Water temperature, algal distribution and currents were the most relevant environmental factors influencing the tunicate abundance and distribution in the North Yellow Sea. Further research is needed in order to get more information on the ecology of these organisms and to better understand their role in the ecosystem including the oceanic food web.

Estimation of Travel Times on Signalized Arterials

This paper describes procedure for estimation of travel time on signalized arterial roads based on multiple data sources with application of dimensionality reduction. Travel time estimation approach incorporates forecast of transportation nodes impendence and travel time on network links. Forecasting period is two hours and the estimation is based on historical data and real time data on traffic conditions. Travel time estimation combines multivariate regression, principal component analysis, KNN （k-nearest neighbours）, cross validation and EWMA （exponentially weighted moving average） methods. When comparing estimation methodologies, relevantly better results were achieved by KNN method than with EWMA method. This is true for every time interval considered except for evening time interval when signalized arterial roads were uncongested.

Updating Methods for Real Time Flood Forecasting： A Comparison through Senegal River Basin Upstream Bakel

Heavy floods occur frequently in the Senegal River Basin, causing catastrophic flooding downstream the river rating station of Bakel. Anticipating the occurrence of such phenomena is the only way to reduce the resulting damages. Flood forecasting is a necessity. Flood forecasting plays also an important role in the implementation of flood management scenarios and in the protection of hydro electric structures. Many methods are applied. The most complete are based on the conservation laws of physics governing the free surface flow. These methods need a complete description of the geometry of the river and their implementation requires also huge investments. In practice the river basin can be considered as a system of inputs-outputs related by a transfer function. In this paper the authors first used a multiple linear regression model with constant parameters estimated by the ordinary least square method to simulate the propagation of the floods in the upstream part of the Senegal river basin. The authors then apply statistical and graphical criteria of goodness-of-fit to test the suitability of this model. Three procedures of parameters updating have then been added to this linear model： the Kalman filter method, the recursive least square method, and the stochastic gradient method The criteria of goodness-of-fit used above have shown that the stochastic gradient method, although more rudimentary, represents better the flood propagation in the head basin of the Senegal river upstream Bakel. This result is particularly interesting because data influenced by Manantali Dam are used.

Experimental Analysis of Sediment Deposition Due to the Effect of an Upstream Reservoir Backwater

The phenomenon of aggradation due to sediment accumulation upstream reservoirs had been studied in this research. For this purpose, groups of experiments were conducted in a laboratory with 25 m long, 0.80 m wide and 0.70 m deep channel. A block was built at the end of the channel to work as a dam to impound water. The channel was supplied with drainage pipes on both sides to release water out in a manner similar to what happens in reservoirs. The bed of the channel was filled with sand of 0.80 mm median sieve diameter and 0.72 geometric standard deviation. The slope was 0.0093 for all experiments. Two sizes of sand were used representing the sediment. The median diameter and geometric standard deviation of the first were 0.365 mm and 0.46 mm, respectively. The second sample had 0.65 mm median diameter and 0.67 standard deviation. A total of 70 experiments were conducted in two groups to examine effects of sediment transport rate, particle size of sediment and flow velocity on aggradation characteristics. The results showed that there was a strong linear direct relationship between aggradation elements （length and depth） with the rate of sediment transport. Groups of dimensionless parameters affecting the aggradation characteristics were used to develop empirical equations to predict the length, maximum depth of aggradation and predict transient bed profile. The results of empirical approach were compared with the measurement data and previous numerical method. The results indicated that the percentage error was 19% to 31% for length of aggradation and -21% to 26% for maximum depth of aggradation. The results also showed that the sediment materials were deposited closer to the body of the dam when the released water from the dam is higher than the inflow.

Finite element model updating for large span spatial steel structure considering uncertainties

In order to establish the baseline finite element model for structural health monitoring,a new method of model updating was proposed after analyzing the uncertainties of measured data and the error of finite element model.In the new method,the finite element model was replaced by the multi-output support vector regression machine(MSVR).The interval variables of the measured frequency were sampled by Latin hypercube sampling method.The samples of frequency were regarded as the inputs of the trained MSVR.The outputs of MSVR were the target values of design parameters.The steel structure of National Aquatic Center for Beijing Olympic Games was introduced as a case for finite element model updating.The results show that the proposed method can avoid solving the problem of complicated calculation.Both the estimated values and associated uncertainties of the structure parameters can be obtained by the method.The static and dynamic characteristics of the updated finite element model are in good agreement with the measured data.

Research on Tourism Resources Development Pattern Effect Evaluation based on Regression Analysis and Neural Network

In this paper, we conduct research on the tourism resources development pattern effect evaluation based on regression analysis andneural network. Tourism resources development and the protection of all sorts of the contradictions, in the fi nal analysis is the confl ict betweenthe interests of stakeholders. Real life in China, and tourism resources development and protection of the interests of the relevant party basicallyhas the following six parties the local government, investment and the business practice, the original residents, tourists, tourism practitioners, thesocial organization. The survival and the development of general tourism industry is based on the premise of environmental protection, tourismlandscape are carefully protected, let the natural landscape and human landscape form a virtuous cycle, to attract more tourists, promote thesustainable development of scenic spots. Under this basis, this paper proposes the new idea on the issues that is meaningful.

Assessing the Impact of the Sloping Land Conversion Program on Rural Household Income in the Upper Reaches of Minjiang River,China

One secondary target of the SLCP is poverty reduction. Therefore,the impact of the SLCP on household income is a subject of much research. This study was conducted to determine whether the SLCP has affected incomes of households at different income levels13 years after its implementation. Using survey data from 2012 on rural households＇ livelihoods in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River in Sichuan Province and using the non-participating households as a reference,the current impact of the SLCP on household income is calculated with a multiple linear regression model and a quantile regression model. The socio-geographic features of participating and non-participating households are also be compared. The results show no significant differences between the SLCP participating and non-participating households in many socio-demographic characteristics. Participating in the SLCP had no significant impact on household income at all income levels in the study area in 2012. This finding suggests that the SLCP is not currently increasing household income significantly in the study area,and that the implementation plan of the SLCP should be changed in this area in order to achieve its poverty reduction goal.

Return Probability of the Open Quantum Random Walk with Time-Dependence

We study the open quantum random walk (OQRW) with time-dependence on the one-dimensional lattice space and obtain the associated limit distribution. As an application we study the return probability of the OQRW. We also ask, "What is the average time for the return probability of the OQRW?"

DEPENDENCE ANALYSIS OF REGRESSION MODELS IN TIME SERIES

In this paper, the relative dependence of a linear regression model is studied. In particular, the dependence of autoregressive models in time series are investigated. It is shown that for the first-order non-stationary autoregressive model and the random walk with trend and drift model, the dependence between two states decreases with lag. Some numerical examples are presented as well.