This paper.fi＇rst conducts a systematic review of domestic and foreign scholars＇ approaches to predicting short-term capital flows, then employs a combination of both direct and indirect methods to carry out its ana...This paper.fi＇rst conducts a systematic review of domestic and foreign scholars＇ approaches to predicting short-term capital flows, then employs a combination of both direct and indirect methods to carry out its analysis. Three kinds of indicators, both specific and general, are applied in both methods. Thorough consideration is given to short-term international capital inflow from trade, other current account items, capital account, and errors and omissions, as well as other channels through which short term capital might accrue to a nation＇s balance. Based on a comprehensive comparison of year-on-year data, this paper also estimates monthly data using a simplified, indirect calculation approach. Estimates show that, despite a degree of difference in results between methods, most estimates are highly consistent for a given period. Based on monthly estimates, we conclude that turbulence in international financial markets （i.e., the United States subprime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis） has had a major impact on China ＇s short-term capital flow.展开更多
Rapid internationalization of economic activities following the Second World War has generated an unprecedented increase in international trade and capital flows. For example, only during 1963-1993, exports rose from ...Rapid internationalization of economic activities following the Second World War has generated an unprecedented increase in international trade and capital flows. For example, only during 1963-1993, exports rose from 157 billion to 3.774 billion dollars. Also the flows of foreign direct investment （FDI） have grown exponentially. Although FDI flows are concentrated on developing countries, 80% being targeted towards 10 countries, capital flows towards the Third World have quadrupled only between 1990 and 1993. This trend towards a truly international economy influences also on how companies do business. International business environment provides many opportunities, as well as threats. Romanian companies need to align to this trend. In addition to identifying new opportunities to do business in foreign markets, they have to deal with specific risks, which they did not have to face when working internally. In this context, we consider necessary to launch an investigation, whose main objective would be analyzing the manner in which Romanian companies manage risks specific to international economic affairs. As the complexity of these businesses is great, and the majority of Romanian companies, in their attempt to internationalize, use classical forms of export-import, the analysis took into account only the export activity undertaken by Romanian companies. We mention that we did not take into account the determination of the exposure to these risks of the companies concerned, but an analysis of the management of those risks. For this analysis, data were collected based on the administration of a questionnaire, and these data were used to develop an econometric model analysis. The specific methods of risk analysis of specific export transactions are then interpreted using the GLOBE model.展开更多
This paper investigated the relationship between demographic structure and international capital flows with panel data of 190 countries over the past 60 years＇ and projection data for the 21st century. As found, from...This paper investigated the relationship between demographic structure and international capital flows with panel data of 190 countries over the past 60 years＇ and projection data for the 21st century. As found, from a global perspective, the current account balance （CAB） is negatively related to the dependency ratio, and orresponding to continuous change, international eapital flows tend to move from ＂adult countries＂ to ＂aged or young countries.＂ Since the middle of the 20th century, the U.S., Europe, Japan, China, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, West Asia and Africa took turns in exporting capital to other countries. In the 2lst century, Europe, the U.S., Australia and Singapore will keep importing capital, while China in the 2030s, and Southeast Asia in the 2050s will in turn become the main capital importers. Given the demographic structure of China and the world, the future pattern of the international capital flows requires more serious concern and responses.展开更多
文摘This paper.fi＇rst conducts a systematic review of domestic and foreign scholars＇ approaches to predicting short-term capital flows, then employs a combination of both direct and indirect methods to carry out its analysis. Three kinds of indicators, both specific and general, are applied in both methods. Thorough consideration is given to short-term international capital inflow from trade, other current account items, capital account, and errors and omissions, as well as other channels through which short term capital might accrue to a nation＇s balance. Based on a comprehensive comparison of year-on-year data, this paper also estimates monthly data using a simplified, indirect calculation approach. Estimates show that, despite a degree of difference in results between methods, most estimates are highly consistent for a given period. Based on monthly estimates, we conclude that turbulence in international financial markets （i.e., the United States subprime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis） has had a major impact on China ＇s short-term capital flow.
文摘Rapid internationalization of economic activities following the Second World War has generated an unprecedented increase in international trade and capital flows. For example, only during 1963-1993, exports rose from 157 billion to 3.774 billion dollars. Also the flows of foreign direct investment （FDI） have grown exponentially. Although FDI flows are concentrated on developing countries, 80% being targeted towards 10 countries, capital flows towards the Third World have quadrupled only between 1990 and 1993. This trend towards a truly international economy influences also on how companies do business. International business environment provides many opportunities, as well as threats. Romanian companies need to align to this trend. In addition to identifying new opportunities to do business in foreign markets, they have to deal with specific risks, which they did not have to face when working internally. In this context, we consider necessary to launch an investigation, whose main objective would be analyzing the manner in which Romanian companies manage risks specific to international economic affairs. As the complexity of these businesses is great, and the majority of Romanian companies, in their attempt to internationalize, use classical forms of export-import, the analysis took into account only the export activity undertaken by Romanian companies. We mention that we did not take into account the determination of the exposure to these risks of the companies concerned, but an analysis of the management of those risks. For this analysis, data were collected based on the administration of a questionnaire, and these data were used to develop an econometric model analysis. The specific methods of risk analysis of specific export transactions are then interpreted using the GLOBE model.
文摘This paper investigated the relationship between demographic structure and international capital flows with panel data of 190 countries over the past 60 years＇ and projection data for the 21st century. As found, from a global perspective, the current account balance （CAB） is negatively related to the dependency ratio, and orresponding to continuous change, international eapital flows tend to move from ＂adult countries＂ to ＂aged or young countries.＂ Since the middle of the 20th century, the U.S., Europe, Japan, China, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, West Asia and Africa took turns in exporting capital to other countries. In the 2lst century, Europe, the U.S., Australia and Singapore will keep importing capital, while China in the 2030s, and Southeast Asia in the 2050s will in turn become the main capital importers. Given the demographic structure of China and the world, the future pattern of the international capital flows requires more serious concern and responses.
