珠三角城市群流动人口留城意愿的差异——基于地方效用理论视角的分析

在城乡户籍制度不断改革与“城—城”流动人口比例不断上升的背景下,对新时期户籍政策下流动人口户籍身份差异对留城意愿影响的研究还较少。基于地方效用理论,通过统计分析和Logistic模型,利用珠三角城市群六市调查数据,可对流动人口中的城乡差异现象及对留城意愿的影响进行分析,结果如下。一是“城—城”流动人口经济与技能条件较好、家庭社会融入程度较强,满足积分落户条件的占比也更高;“乡—城”流动人口拥有耕地、宅基地的比例较高;性别、年龄特征则差别不大。二是模型1、模型2表明,经济技能、家庭社会、满足积分落户条件等因素对流动人口留城意愿产生正面效用,拥有耕地、宅基地则产生负面效用,因此,“城—城”流动人口在迁入地城市定居往往能获得更高的地方效用,也更倾向于留城。三是模型3、模型4表明,经济与社会属性分别对“乡—城”流动人口和“城—城”流动人口留城意愿总体上仍产生显著影响,作用效用方向与模型1相似,但职业、收入对“城—城”流动人口地方效用及留城意愿影响相对较小。

Discussion on Sustainable Urbanization in Tibet

After 1995, Tibet entered the stage of accelerated urbanization. The large floating population fi＇om outside Tibet has become the driving force for urban expansion and the rising of urbanization rate. After analyzing the changes of urban functions and spatial structure of urban system in Tibet, this paper argues that before 1995 the urbanization in Tibet was mainly driven by administrative function, resulting in certain population migration, whereas in the past decade economic function has become the key factor accelerating urban expansion with the market mechanism creating large-scale inflow of population. The floating population-based urbanization and high population growth in the agricultural and pastoral areas of Tibet has promoted the regional economic prosperity, but exerted resources and environmental pressure and brought some problems for Tibetan culture protection at the same time. The conflicts and contradictions between urbanization and the sustainability of natural resources, environment and social development have been intensified. Addressing these problems, this paper proposes some countermeasures for improving the sustainability of Tibetan urbanization.