基于“大事件”驱动的城市国际化战略研究

世界城市发展的规律和经验表明,以大型赛事、会展为支撑的"大事件"对提升城市国际竞争力有着重要的意义。本文通过对"大事件"与城市联动发展的机理分析,指出其对于创新城市发展主题、创新城市空间结构体系、创新城市产业体系以及创新城市文化属性的作用方式,进而通过比较借鉴中外城市的成功经验,对承办2014年青奥会的南京,提出了提升城市国际化功能的战略性方向和政策性建议。

外交、王权与经济:《亨利八世》中的“大事件”

《亨利八世》常被研究者视为一部结构松散的剧作。研究者把这一问题归咎于莎士比亚与弗莱彻合著的缘故,但若从剧中体现的外交关系切人,则并不如是。亨利八世与凯瑟琳离婚这一“大事件”集中体现了亨利八世时期英格兰、西班牙、法兰西和教皇之间的外交博弈;但外交手段并未保证亨利八世成功挣脱这场政治联姻的束缚,遂发动宗教改革获得至尊王权,争取主动并如愿以偿。而莎士比亚对这起历史公案的认识不尽于此,经济利益驱动才是“大事件”及由此引发的宗教改革的根源;历史是由一系列的人物与事件环环相扣组成,而这正是进人现代国家的征兆。

“大事件”效应与城市国际化进程

城市是经济全球化的支撑点,国际化是城市发展到高级阶段的必然选择。随着经济地位日益增强和国际影响的不断上升,全球性"大事件"将密集地在我国主要城市举行。研究"大事件"提升城市国际化的综合驱动效应,将城市国际化与国家"一带一路"、新型城镇化两大战略相结合,研究城市国际化的思路与路径问题具有极强的现实意义。对于已经成功举办G20峰会和即将举办亚运会的杭州而言更具有紧迫性,围绕这些重大问题提出了全面提升杭州城市国际化水平的政策主张。

论“大事件”对城市品牌建设的影响

在城市品牌建设的过程中,利用"大事件"是提升城市品牌发展层次的重要路径之一,许多城市通过制造"大事件"为城市品牌营销"造势",而出色的"事件制造"必然会对城市发展产生积极影响,形成"大事件"与城市品牌的良性互动。本文通过探究"大事件"和城市品牌建设的相互关系,认为"大事件"对城市品牌建设具有非常的影响力。

“大事件”背景下的杭州城市国际化路径选择

国际化是城市发展到高级阶段的必然选择。随着城市经济地位的日益增强和国际综合影响力的不断提升,全球性“大事件”将密集地在我国主要城市举办,一大批国内城市将走向国际舞台,积极参与国际产业和要素配置。在把握国际城市发展规律的基础上正确认识国际化城市,研究“大事件”提升城市国际化的综合驱动效应,分析城市国际化与国际城市体系、城市国际化驱动因素演进、城市国际化发展机遇、城市国际化已有条件等问题,具有极强的现实意义,对于杭州而言更具紧迫性。

将时事“大事件”融入思品“小课堂”的教学策略研究

与小学生生活实际相关的时事“大事件”是小学思品课堂教学中的鲜活教材,具有较强的亲和力和针对性。教师将时事“大事件”融入思品“小课堂”,是高质量地开展小学思品课堂教学的重要手段,也是实现新时代思品课堂教学目标的重要途径。文章首先介绍了时事“大事件”融入思品“小课堂”的主要意义,然后提出了具体的教学策略:用好网络资源,让网络与课堂“连起来”;用好社区资源,让学生从教室“走出来”;创设形式多样的思品活动,让课堂与学生“活起来”。

Influence range of emergency under special events based on CTM

To determine the dynamic influence range of emergencies under special events, the spacial and temporal characteristics of the traffic flow are studied by simulation based on the cell transmission model （CTM）. Based on the traffic management measures used under special events, a semi-dynamic assignment algorithm is proposed, which is combined with an algorithm for logit multi-path traffic assignment and the CTM. In a simple calculation network, the spacial and temporal characteristics of traffic flows which vary with different traffic management schemes are studied, and a method to obtain the influence range of emergency is proposed by computing the jam time of the intersections. By contrasting the average delay of each vehicle, the dissipation effect is studied under two different traffic management schemes. The example shows that the spatial and temporal variety of the traffic flow can be easily simulated and the influence range of emergency can be confirmed by the method based on the CTM. The proposed method provides a new idea for decision-making on traffic management under emergency under special events.

Spatial-Temporal Variations of Dominant Drought/Flood Modes and the Associated Atmospheric Circulation and Ocean Events in Rainy Season over the East of China

By using Season-reliant Empirical Orthogonal Function (S-EOF) analysis, three dominant modes of the spatial-temporal evolution of the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China are revealed for the period of 1960-2004. The first two leading modes occur during the turnabout phase of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) decaying year, but the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China are different due to the role of the Indian Ocean (IO). The first leading mode appears closely correlated with the ENSO events. In the decaying year of El Nino, the associated western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone located over the Philippine Sea persists from the previous winter to the next early summer, transports warm and moist air toward the southern Yangtze River in China, and leads to wet conditions over this entire region. Therefore, the precipitation anomaly in summer exhibits a 'Southern Flood and Northern Drought' pattern over East China. On the other hand, the basin-wide Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) plays a crucial role in prolonging the impact of ENSO on the second mode during the ENSO decaying summer. The Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) warming persists through summer and unleashes its influence, which forces a Matsuno-Gill pattern in the upper troposphere. Over the subtropical western North Pacific, an anomalous anticyclone forms in the lower troposphere. The southerlies on the northwest flank of this anticyclone increase the moisture transport onto central China, leading to abundant rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys. The anomalous anticyclone causes dry conditions over South China and the South China Sea (SCS). The precipitation anomaly in summer exhibits a 'Northern Flood and Southern Drought' pattern over East China. Therefore, besides the ENSO event the IOBM is an important factor to influence the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China. The third mode is positively correlated with the tropical SSTA in the Indian Ocean from the spring of preceding year(-1) to the winter of following year(+1), but not related to the ENSO events. The positive SSTA in the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea persists from spring to autumn, leading to weak north-south and land-sea thermal contrasts, which may weaken the intensity of the East Asia summer monsoon. The weakened rainfall over the northern Indian monsoon region may link to the third spatial mode through the 'Silk Road' teleconnection or a part of circumglobal teleconnection (CGT). The physical mechanisms that reveal these linkages remain elusive and invite further investigation.

Decadal Variations of Extreme Tropical Cyclones Influencing China during 1949-2009

Decadal variations of extreme tropical cyclones （TCs） influencing China were. investigated based on the tracks, landfall information, precipitation and wind data during 1949-2009. The extreme landfall date events are less in the 1970s and 2000s. The number of extreme events of maximum wind speed and minimum pressure near TC＇s center reached the highest in the 2000s. The extreme rain duration events had the highest frequence in the 1970s, and the extreme strong wind duration events had the maximum frequence in the 1980s. The number of stations whereat the extreme maximum daily precipitation or process precipitation is observed, is the largest in the 1960s, and the number of stations whereat daily maximum wind speed events axe observed, is the largest in the 1980s.

Characteristics and Changes of Cold Surge Events over China during 1960-2007

This paper demonstrates regional characteristics, a long-term decreasing trend, and decadal variations in the frequency of cold surge events based on daily mean temperature and daily minimum temperature data in China's Mainland from 1960 to 2008. During these 48 years four high frequency centers of cold surge events were located in Xinjiang, central North China, northeast China, and southeast China. A main frequency peak of cold surge events occurs in autumn for the four regions and another peak is detected in spring over northeast China and southeast China. The regional pattern of cold surge frequencies is in accordance with the perturbation kinetic energy distribution in October December, January, and February April. The long-term decreasing trend ( 0.2 times/decade) of cold surge frequencies in northeast China and decadal variations in China are related to the variations of the temperature difference between southern and northern China in the winter monsoon season; these variations are due to the significant rising of winter temperatures in high latitudes.

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the South China Sea during mature phase of ENSO

Based on the 18-year （1993-2010） National Centers for Environmental Prediction optimum interpolation sea surface temperature （SST） and simple ocean data assimilation datasets, this study investigated the patterns of the SST anomalies （SSTAs） that occurred in the South China Sea （SCS） during the mature phase of the E1 Nifio/Southem Oscillation. The most dominant characteristic was that of the out- of-phase variation between southwestern and northeastern parts of the SCS, which was influenced primarily by the net surface heat flux and by horizontal thermal advection. The negative SSTA in the northeastern SCS was caused mainly by the loss of heat to the atmosphere and because of the cold-water advection from the western Pacific through the Luzon Strait during E1 Nifio episodes. Conversely, it was found that the anomalous large-scale atmospheric circulation and weakened western boundary current during E1 Nifio episodes led to the development of the positive SSTA in the southwestern SCS.

The Definition and Classification of Extensive and Persistent Extreme Cold Events in China

Using the observed daily temperatures from 756 stations in China during the period from 1951 to 2009 extensive and persistent extreme cold events (EPECEs) were defined according to the following three steps:1) a station was defined as an extreme cold station (ECS) if the observed temperature was lower than its 10th percentile threshold;2) an extensive extreme cold event was determined to be present if the approximated area occupied by the ECSs was more than 10% of the total area of China (83rd percentile) on its starting day and the maximum area occupied by the ECSs was at least 20% of the total area of China (96th percentile);and 3) an EPECE was determined to be present if the extensive extreme cold event lasted for at least for eight days.52 EPECEs were identified in this manner,and these identification results were also verified using other reliable data.On the basis of cluster analysis,five types of EPECEs were classified according to the spatial distribution of ECSs at their most extensive time over the course of the EPECE.

Development and psychometric assessment of the public health emergency risk perception scale:Under the outbreak of COVID-19

Objective:Correctly understanding and evaluating the level of public risk perception toward public health emergencies not only helps experts and decision-makers understand the public’s preventative health behaviors to these emergencies but also enhances their risk information communication with the public.The aim of this study was to develop a risk perception scale for public health emergencies and test its validity and reliability during the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic.Methods:Guided by the theoretical model of risk perception,an initial scale was generated through literature review,group meetings,resident interviews,and expert consultation.A pretest and item screening were then conducted to develop a formal risk perception scale for public health emergencies.Finally,the reliability and validity of the scale were validated through a questionnaire survey of 504 Chinese adults.Results:The final scale had 9 items.The content validity index of the scale was 0.968,and the content validity index of individual items ranged from 0.83 to 1.00.Three common factors,dread risk perception,severe risk perception,and unknown risk perception,were extracted for exploratory factor analysis,and together they explained 66.26%of the variance in the score.Confirmatory factor analysis showed that the model had a satisfactory fit,whereχ^(2)/df=1.384,the goodness-of-fit index(GFI)=0.989,root mean square error of approximation(RMSEA)=0.028,root mean square residual(RMR)=0.018,comparative fit index(CFI)=0.995,normed fit index(NFI)=0.982,and non-normed fit index(NNFI)=0.990.The correlations between dimensions ranged from 0.306 to 0.483(P<0.01).Cronbach’s a was 0.793 for the total scale and ranged between 0.687 and 0.801 for the individual dimensions.The split-half coefficient was 0.861 for the total scale and ranged from 0.727 to 0.856 for induvial dimensions.The test-retest coefficient was 0.846 for the total scale and ranged from 0.843 to 0.868 for induvial dimensions.Conclusion:The developed scale for the risk perception of public health emergencies showed acceptable levels of reliability and validity,suggesting that it is suitable for evaluating residents’risk perception of public health emergencies.

Athletes Who Sparkle： Stereotypes in the Televised Coverage of the 2010 Olympic Figure Skating Events

A vast amount of research has been devoted to gender roles in mass media. Prior studies relating to gender roles in media coverage of sports have been typically centered on underrepresentation, negative stereotypical portrayals of female athletes, and iconic heroic portrayals of male athletes. However, few studies have examined media coverage of male participation in so-called ＂gender inappropriate＂ sports. This research seeks to fill a gap in literature by exploring gender cues presented in the televised coverage of male and female figure skating events in the 2010 Winter Olympic Games. The findings from this research indicate that male athletes who cross gender barriers to participate in a feminine sport are likely to receive gender-marked stereotypical televised coverage. Much of the significant findings indicate that male figure skaters were visually and verbally portrayed as more feminine than the female figure skaters. The study opens lines of research into how sports are portrayed and could potentially influence sport marketing, athlete endorsements, athlete wardrobe, and other decisions made by the media, athletes, and individuals working in the sport industry.

On the Second Borel-Cantelli Lemma for α-mixing Sequences of Events

In this paper, we give some conditions on diverging rate of series of the probabilities and converging rate of series of the α-mixing coefficients for sequences of events, under which the conclusion of the Second Borel-Cantelli Lemma holds. As corollaries, some moment conditions are obtained, under which the strong law of large numbers holds for sequences of identically distributed random variables.

Suspended sediment transport analysis in two Italian instrumented catchments

Suspended sediment transport in streams is an effective indicator of soil erosion at the watershed scale. This process was studied using the data obtained from two continuous monitoring stations installed in Italian watersheds, the Rio Cordon and Torrente CarapeUe. The catchments have substantially different climatic, morphological and land use characteristics. The Rio Cordon, a small Alpine watershed, has been monitored since 1986, while in the Torrente Carapelle, a medium-size Mediterranean watershed, the monitoring station has provided data since 2007. Several flood events with suspended sediment transport were isolated in the two catchments, excluding those determined by snowmelt in the Rio Cordon as this process does not affect the Carapelle watershed. Analysis of the events showed different behavior in terms of hysteresis loop trends between water discharge （m3 S-1） and suspended sediment concentration （g 1-1） values, as the Rio Cordon confirms clockwise relationships most frequently, while counter-clockwise trends represent the majority of cases for the Carapelle Torrent. The different behavior of the two watersheds was further analyzed by evaluating relationships between the main hydrological parameters related to suspended sediment transport. Runoff controls the total sediment budget in both catchments. In contrast, it was noted that the runoff process does not interfere in the magnitude of the suspended sediment transport in the Rio Cordon catchment, while variations due to the larger size of the catchment area characterize the events in the Carapelle watershed. Lastly, a flow peak threshold that determines the advance or delay of the hydrograph peak with respect to the sedigraph peak was established for the Carapelle Torrent, while it was not reported in the Rio Cordon.

Sites to Remember： Performing the Landscape in Cultural History

This paper aims to compare and contrast two site-specific performance productions, both designed to grapple with processes of cultural remembrance, whilst also operating as successful tourist attractions. The narratives encompassed by both productions revolve around shared Australian histories, for audiences attracted by place and what it is able to represent. Re-enactments of past events call into the present a consideration of what still remains, with both shows enabling new subjective interpretations of earlier times. The defining difference between the two, however, rests in the context of each performance, in the one case as a commodification of heritage and in the other case as the desire to produce an artistic yet popular theatrical product. Ballarat＇s, Sovereign Hill＇s light and sound show, Blood on the Southern Cross celebrates and commemorates, in mega-spectacle style, the Eureka Stockade, one of Australia＇s key historical events. Using a mechanised display of the original goldmining site of the Eureka rebellion, the performance is operated by computers with video-projection, multi-phonic sound, and moving model forms, with audiences moved around the massive site on transporters. The Piccolo Tales, a contrasting performance most notably in terms of size, unfolds the history of Kings Cross, through its setting in the miniscule iconic Piccolo Bar, in one of the tiny side streets of Sydney＇s bustling and densest suburb. This paper encompasses an investigation of how the cultural inscriptions of the two specific sites interweave with the performance styles, materials, political and social positioning of the works. Previous performance studies examining site-specificity are utilised, including the author＇s analysis of particular festival performances as ＂place-making＂ （Hayes, 2012, 2013）. Smith＇s （2009） model of ＂signposts＂ is used to consider acting within site-specific productions in a new light, whilst both performances are more completely analysed through Schneider＇s （2011） concept of incomplete pasts forming ＂cycles of memory＂.

Application of the Stress Evolutionary Model in Hebei Province,North China

Coulomb stress changes associated with strong earthquakes occurring since 1484 in Hebei Province,China are investigated. The North China block has had many large historical earthquakes and some damaging earthquakes in the past century,including the 1976 Tangshan earthquake (M =7.8) . The study area and the adjacent areas of the province comprise the most active seismic fault zones and suffer from both strong and frequent events. The North China Block,which includes the Ordos plateau and the North China plain,is part of the Archean Sino-Lorean craton and one of the most active seismic regions in the world. Its movement is accommodated on major strike-slip intraplate fault zones that strike in the E-W direction. The faults in the study area contribute to the complexity of the stress field. Seismic hazard assessment in this region is attempted by calculating the change of the Coulomb failure function ( ΔCFF) arising from both the coseismic slip of strong events (MS≥6.5) and the stress built up by continuous tectonic loading on major regional faults. At every step of the stress evolutionary model an examination of possible triggering of each next strong event is made and the model finally puts in evidence that the fault segments that are apt to fail in an impending strong event,thus providing future seismic hazard evaluation. In this paper,the results of ΔCFF for Zhangjiakou fault, Xiadian fault and Langfang fault have been shown as examples to express the possiblity of generating future seismic hazard.

The Study of SINA micro-blog Opinion Leaders Effect on Network Public Opinion Transmission

Opinion leaders play a critical role in network public opinion transmission, their perspectives can shape public opinion and influence policy formulation and implementation. The paper is based on SINA micro-blog, by structural equation model, as Fudan Poisoning Event for example, On the basis of in-depth analysis of opinion leaders effect on network public opinion transmission characteristics, Explore the opinion leaders on the influence of network public opinion transmission mechanism, in order to better play a role of opinion leader＇s guidance of public opinion.

Two Opposite Extreme Events in Seasonal Mean Winter Rainfall over East China during the Past Three Decades

In this study,the extremes of winter seasonal mean precipitation have been investigated by using daily precipitation data from 91 stations in East China,the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） monthly reanalysis,and sea surface temperature data from the Hadley Centre for 1979-2007.The largest anomalous rainfall amount was observed in regions south of the Yangtze River.In the most recent three decades,extreme events in the seasonal mean winter precipitation occurred in 1985 and 1997.Because it was influenced mainly by a La Ni（n）a event,the precipitation in 1985 showed a deficit following a stronger winter monsoon.The rainfall amount in 1997 was influenced by E1 Ni（n）o and was significantly larger than normal with a weaker winter monsoon.Both the circulation anomalies and wave energy dispersions during the winters of 1985 and 1997 differed significantly.In 1985,the North Atlantic Oscillation anomalously excited the Eurasian-Pacific teleconnection and circumglobal teleconnection phenomena.Consequently,Rossby wave energy propagated along the north and south branches of the westerlies,strengthening the East Asian trough along with a stronger winter monsoon,which facilitated the wintertime dry extreme in East China.In 1997,however,Rossby wave energy propagated from low latitudes northeastward into the southern part of China,resulting in a weaker winter monsoon and the wettest winter.The results of this study will be helpful for future monitoring and prediction of extreme winter rainfall events in East China.