我国大豆生产波动动因分析——基于省际面板模型的实证研究

在我国大豆生产波动频繁的情况下,找出影响大豆单产、种植面积的影响因素是实现“提单产、稳面积”的首要举措。研究采用1999~2020年21个省份面板数据,在分析大豆单产、种植面积的变化趋势基础上,根据大豆单产增减趋势,把大豆产区划分成增产区、减产区和波动区,采用改进的面板数据模型分别对三个产区的大豆单产和种植面积的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,机械化收割、产研结合、农药投入、小型拖拉机的投入是影响不同区域大豆单产的显著因素;机械化耕作是提升所有区域种植面积的显著因素,玉米种植面积、化肥投入、农药投入、灌溉条件、科研资金与人员投入、产研结合、机械化收割是影响不同区域大豆种植面积显著因素。根据分析,提出了相应政策建议。

Earth＇s Temporal Principal Moments of Inertia and Variable Rotation

Based on the gravity field models EGM96 and EIGEN-GL04C, the Earth＇s time-dependent principal moments of inertia A, B, C are obtained, and the variable rotation of the Earth is determined. Numerical results show that A, B, and C have increasing tendencies; the tilt of the rotation axis increases 2.1×10^ 8 mas/yr; the third component of the rotational angular velocity, ω3 , has a decrease of 1.0×10^ 22 rad/s^2, which is around 23% of the present observed value. Studies show in detail that both 0 and ω3 experience complex fluctuations at various time scales due to the variations of A, B and C.

Influence of enlarged section parameters on pressure transients of high-speed train passing through a tunnel

The influence of enlarged section parameters on pressure transients of high-speed train passing through a tunnel was investigated by numerical simulation.The calculation results obtained by the structured and unstructured grid and the experimental results of smooth wall tunnel were verified.Numerical simulation studies were conducted on three tunnel enlarged section parameters,the enlarged section distribution along circumferential direction,the enlarged section area and the enlarged section distribution along tunnel length direction.The calculation results show that the influence of the different enlarged section distributions along tunnel circumferential direction on pressure transients in the tunnel is basically consistent.There is an optimal enlarged section area for the minimum value of the pressure variation amplitude and the average pressure variation in the tunnel.The law of the pressure variation amplitude and the average pressure variation of the enlarged section distribution along tunnel length direction are obtained.

Characterization of Pressure Signals in Fluidized Beds Loaded with Large Particles Using Wigner Distribution Analysis: Feasibility of Diagnosis of Agglomeration

An experimental verification is reported on the early predicting index of agglomeration in bubbling fluidized bed. Coarse quartz sand, which has the same density but larger diameter than the bed material, was used to simulate the initial agglomerated particle. Wigner distribution was used to analyze the pressure fuctuation of the tested bed, and the average amplitude of local domain frequency （LDF） and local peak weighted average frequency （LPWA） under different operating conditions were measured and compared. The results showed that the LDF is sensitive to the agglomeration phenomena and had quick response to the incipient agglomeration in fluidized beds. It can be concluded from the results that these two parameters could be taken as the characteristic indexes to the agglomeration in fuidized beds.

Effects of atmospheric pressure fluctuations on hill-side coal fires and surface anomalies

This paper presents numerical studies on the effects of atmospheric pressure fluctuations on hill-side coal fires and their surface anomalies. Based on the single-particle reaction–diffusion model, a formula to estimate oxygen consumption rate at high temperature controlled by oxygen transport is proposed.Daily fluctuant atmospheric pressure was imposed on boundaries, including the abandoned gallery and cracks. Simulated results show that the effects of atmospheric pressure fluctuations on coal fires and surface anomalies depend on two factors: the fluctuant amplitude and the pressure difference between inlet(s) and outlet(s) of the air ventilation system. If the pressure difference is close to the fluctuant amplitude, atmospheric pressure fluctuations greatly enhance gas flow motion and temperatures of the combustion zone and outtake(s). If the pressure difference is much larger than the fluctuant amplitude, atmospheric pressure fluctuations exert no impact on underground coal fires and surface anomalies.

Roll Vortices in the Boundary Layer Caused by a Concave Wind Profile: A Theoretical Study

The present study solves a two-layer atmospheric wave equation model with a lower atmosphere concave wind profile and cold-air outbreak over sea, while simultaneously proving that such a wind shear may cause neutral boundary layer roll vortices in the presence of disturbing sources upstream. Without thermal effects, the wind shear-induced waves have band structures at the top of the boundary layer that are similar to cloud street patterns observed over sea. This study proves that dynamic and thermal effects can act independently to initiate the roll vortices in the lower atmosphere. At the same time, a quantitative comparison shows that dynamic effects play a large role in the formation of roll vortices in the initial stage of cold-air outbreak and will be surpassed by thermal effects soon after surface heating commences.

Exact Solutions for a Higher-Order Nonlinear Schrodinger Equation in Atmospheric Dynamics

By giving prior assumptions on the form of the solutions, we succeed to find several exact solutions for a higher-order nonlinear Schroetinger equation derived from one important model in the study of atmospheric and ocean dynamical systems. Our analytical solutions include bright and dark solitary waves, and periodical solutions, which can be used to explain atmospheric phenomena.

新发展阶段下的中国经济周期波动——波动率缓和、经济增长收敛与经济长波态势

经济“大缓和”、“大波动”、增长型经济周期和经济增长收敛是宏观经济研究领域的核心议题。然而,鲜有研究将这些概念彼此联系、相互统一并给出逻辑性解析。在对中国经济周期波动典型化事实梳理的基础上,系统地总结这些概念之间的关系并提出增长型长波这一重要的经济概念。研究发现:“大缓和”和“大波动”都是增长型经济周期的必要形态,它们的平顺交替是增长型经济周期连续出现的前提;而正是连续增长型经济周期的出现才能促成经济长波;通常,在发展中国家追求赶超的道路上,经济长波的出现是最理想的增长路径,长波的前期对应着经济增长“绝对收敛”,中期对应着经济增长“条件收敛”、而后期则对应着经济增长“集团收敛”;目前,中国已经进入了“中高收入集团”,这与首轮增长型长波的成功实现密不可分;而中国新一轮增长型长波的理想形态则是以“十四五”时期的新发展阶段为起点,长期围绕中高速趋势盘桓,这是中国在2035年基本实现社会主义现代化的重要前提,亦是推进共同富裕、实现百年中国梦的经济保障。

OBSERVATIONAL STUDY OF MESO-β WAVE IN LOW LATITUDES OF SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER THE SUMMER MONSOON

The intensive observation data of the Nansha Islands are used to study and discuss the meso-and fine-scale systems existing with large-scale monsoon circulation during the onset of the southwesterly monsoon in the low-latitude areas of the South China Sea. Effects of low-latitude tropical meso-scale gravity waves on weather have been disclosed. The generation and transportation of the local meso-scale gravity wave have been preliminarily studied from the viewpoint of dynamics.

Profile and Character of Atmospheric Structure Constant of Refractive Index C_n^2

Random fluctuations of turbulence bring random fluctuations of the refractive index, making the atmosphere a random fluctuation medium that destroys the coherence of light-waves. Research in atmospheric turbulence is actually the investigation of the atmospheric refractive index. The atmospheric structure constant of refractive index, C n 2 , is an important parameter denoting atmospheric turbulence. In this paper, C n 2 is measured during the day and at night and in all four seasons using a high sensitivity micro-thermal meter QHTP-2. The vertical profile of C n 2 in Hefei (0-30 km) is investigated by the analysis of experimental data. The average profile of C n 2 in Hefei exhibits conspicuous day and night differences with increased altitude. The distribution of log(C n 2 ) is nearly normal and has conspicuous seasonal differences.

Wavelet Analysis of Earthquake Activity in the West of the Chinese Mainland and Its Adjacent Area1

Wavelets are a useful tool for analyzing the time-frequency of a non-stable series and are widely applied in many fields. The process of earthquake preparation and occurrence is a non-linear process. In the paper, the wavelet method is used to analyze the series of earthquake data for the time period from 1900 to 2003 in the west of the Chinese mainland and its adjacent area (WCMAA), and to obtain the characteristic information for different time scales. In the past 103 years, there were four primary periods of regional earthquake activity in the area with durations of 42, 22, 7 and 14 years, respectively and the intensity of earthquake activity changing with time. It doesn’t make sense to talk about active or quiet periods of earthquake activity unless it is based on a specific time scale. In addition, the tendency analysis of earthquake activity using the primary period of seismic activity and wavelet coefficients of varied time scales indicates that the earthquake activity in this region will be high in the forthcoming years.

Two Opposite Extreme Events in Seasonal Mean Winter Rainfall over East China during the Past Three Decades

In this study,the extremes of winter seasonal mean precipitation have been investigated by using daily precipitation data from 91 stations in East China,the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） monthly reanalysis,and sea surface temperature data from the Hadley Centre for 1979-2007.The largest anomalous rainfall amount was observed in regions south of the Yangtze River.In the most recent three decades,extreme events in the seasonal mean winter precipitation occurred in 1985 and 1997.Because it was influenced mainly by a La Ni（n）a event,the precipitation in 1985 showed a deficit following a stronger winter monsoon.The rainfall amount in 1997 was influenced by E1 Ni（n）o and was significantly larger than normal with a weaker winter monsoon.Both the circulation anomalies and wave energy dispersions during the winters of 1985 and 1997 differed significantly.In 1985,the North Atlantic Oscillation anomalously excited the Eurasian-Pacific teleconnection and circumglobal teleconnection phenomena.Consequently,Rossby wave energy propagated along the north and south branches of the westerlies,strengthening the East Asian trough along with a stronger winter monsoon,which facilitated the wintertime dry extreme in East China.In 1997,however,Rossby wave energy propagated from low latitudes northeastward into the southern part of China,resulting in a weaker winter monsoon and the wettest winter.The results of this study will be helpful for future monitoring and prediction of extreme winter rainfall events in East China.

WLS filter for reducing atmospheric effects in spaceborne SAR tomography

A new approach was presented to eliminate the atmosphere-induced phase error utilizing only the single look complex(SLC) synthetic aperture radar(SAR) image set. This method exploited the space-invariance characteristic of phase error components contained in image pixels and estimates the phase error using the weighted least-squares(WLS) filter. Actually, this sort of method can be classified as autofocus algorithm which was generally applied in airborne SAR 2-D imaging to compensate the phase error introduced by airplane's nonideal motion. Real data processing, which is relevant to Honda center and Angel stadium of Anaheim test-sites and acquired by Envisat-ASAR during the period from June 2004 to October 2007, was carried out to evaluate this WLS estimation algorithm. Experimental results show that the phase error estimated from WLS filter is very accurate and the focusing quality along NSR dimension is improved prominently via phase correction, which verifies the practicability of this new method.

Dynamic Wave Pressures on Deeply Embedded Large Cylindrical Structures due to Random Waves

The response of dynamic wave pressures on structures would be more complicated and bring about new phenomena under the dynamic interaction between soil and structure. In order to better understand the response characteristics on deeply embedded large cylindrical structures under random waves, and accordingly to offer valuable findings for engineering, the authors designed wave flume experiments to investigate comparatively dynamic wave pressures on a single and on continuous cylinders with two different embedment depths in response to two wave spectra.The time histories of the water surface elevation and the corresponding dynamic wave pressures exerted on the cylinder were analyzed in the frequency domain. By calculating the transfer function and spectral density for dynamic wave pressures along the height and around the circumference of the cylinder, experimental results of the single cylinder were compared with the theoretical results based on the linear diffraction theory, and detailed comparisons were also carried out between the single and continuous cylinders. Some new findings and the corresponding analysis are reported in present paper. The investigation on continuous cylinders will be used in particular for reference in engineering applications because information is scarce on studying such kind of problem both analytically and experimentally.

The Interrelation between the NAO （North Atlantic Oscillation） and Regulated River Discharges at the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin

Both winter DJF （December, January, February） months and DJF season means long-term data series of 50 regulated rivers discharges rates and the NAO indices were analyzed for different spans. This study is dictated for： （1） detecting the exclusive impacts of the positive phases of NAO indices on rivers discharges rates by estimating the Linear Correlation Coefficient; （2） modeling the interrelations between the discharges rates and NAO indices by estimating the Linear Regression Models, both for manifesting the impact of the positive phase of NAO index; （3） estimating the Linear Trend Coefficient in the discharge series, for manifesting the contribution of the positive phase of NAO index. Discharge rates are mainly influenced by the two mechanisms： the positive phase of NAO index and the environmental conditions in specific catchments, that is where, the positive phase of the NAO index manifest its impact on the related rivers discharges and its contribution in the related configured trends. The discharges fluctuations patterns show some increase in the discharges values have been occurred in regions around the Northern Baltic Proper as well as in Southern Finland and Sweden. The rivers such as Lagan, Nissan, Helgean, Venta, Pamu, Porvoonjoki, Lapuanjoki, Oulujoki, Kyronjoki, Wisla, Eurajoki, Odra, Lielupe, Gota alv, Motala strom, Nykopingsan, Vuoksi, Kalajoki and Simojoki haven not linear discharges changes registered depending on the specificity of the environmental conditions at the catchments areas for those rivers. The positive phase of NAO index has a linear relation with impacted river discharge.

On-line diagnosis method of crack behavior abnormality in concrete dams based on fluctuation of sequential parameter estimates

Research on on-line diagnosis method of crack behavior abnormality in concrete dams can provide support for timely grasping abnormality state of the crack itself and achieving real-time monitoring of the dam safety.Considering that samples of crack effects in concrete dams increase actually over monitoring time,a superiority criterion for the on-line diagnosis is determined so as to detect the abnormality moments timely and reliably.By integrating the safety monitoring statistical model of crack effect variable with change point theory,a fluctuation method of regression coefficients is established for the on-line diagnosis.In addition,each abnormality moment is detected by the cumulative sum of regression model residuals.Results indicate that abnormality of crack behavior in concrete dams can be characterized by structural instability of crack monitoring model.And causes of crack behavior abnormality can be analyzed by the established method,which will play an important role in dam safety monitoring.Further,taking the crack in a concrete gravity-arch dam as an example,the scientific rationality and validity of the established on-line diagnosis method are confirmed.

Feedback maximization of reliability of MDOF quasi integrable-Hamiltonian systems under combined harmonic and white noise excitations

We studied the feedback maximization of reliability of multi-degree-of-freedom （MDOF） quasi integrable-Hamiltonian systems under combined harmonic and white noise excitations. First, the partially averaged Ito equations are derived by using the stochastic averaging method for quasi integrable-Hamiltonian systems under combined harmonic and white noise excitations. Then, the dynamical programming equation and its boundary and final time conditions for the control problems of maximizing the reliability is established from the partially averaged equations by using the dynamical programming principle. The nonlinear stochastic optimal control for maximizing the reliability is determined from the dynamical programming equation and control constrains. The reliability function of optimally controlled systems is obtained by solving the final dynamical programming equation. Finally, the application of the proposed procedure and effectiveness of the control strategy are illustrated by using an example.

Acupuncture Effects on Endocranial Hemodynamics of Patients with Takayasus Arteritis （Brachiocephalic Artery Type）

Objective： To discuss the action mechanisms of Takayasus arteritis （brachiocephalic artery type） of acupuncture. Methods： We applied acupuncture therapy with the principle of “warming Yang and supplementing Qi, removing obstruction in the meridians and recovering pulse”, to treat patients with takayasus arteritis （brachiocephalic artery type）. Before and after treatment, we detected the TCD （Transcranial Doppler） changes of the average velocity of blood flow （AVBF） and arterial pulsatility index （PI） of related arteris. Results： After treatment, acupuncture and moxibustion can regulate the abnormal blood flow rate in endocranial correlated arteries by two sides, in the AVBF while, elevate the elasticity of endocranial vessels. Conclusion： Acupuncture and moxibustion can regulate cerebrovascular function of patients with takayasus arteritis （brachiocephalic artery type）, increase the perfusion of cerebral blood flow, and adjust abnormal state of endocranial hemodynamics. This is possibly the important action mechanisms acupuncture in treating this disorder.

δ^(18)O and δD records of inactive ice wedge in Yitulihe, Northeastern China and their paleoclimatic implications

Discovered in the late 1980s, inactive ice wedges in Yitulihe in the north part of Da Hinggan Mountains, Northeastern China are the southernmost in the Northern Hemisphere, and they are important paleo-environmental indicators. Recently, research was carried out to analyze the hydrogen and oxygen isotopes of an inactive ice wedge from them. The plot of stable isotopes reveals three periods of temperature fluctuations centered approximately at 2.8, 2.3 and 1.9 ka BP. And the resultant temperature was probably lowered by about 2.1, 1.1, and 1.3℃, respectively, in comparison with present temperatures. In conjunction with previous studies, pollen record and radiocarbon dating, the ice wedges probably developed between 3.3 to 1.6 ka BP, and the southern limit of the permafrost （SLP） at that time advanced southwards by around 2°N, i.e., about 200 km.

Attenuation of terahertz transmission through rain

Based on the Marshall-Palmer,Weibull raindrop size distribution and Mie electromagnetic scattering model,the relationships of attenuation coefficient of terahertz(THz) atmospheric window waves with precipitation rate and temperature are studied.Furthermore,combined with the loss of electromagnetic wave transmission in free space,the attenuation of THz communication and the transmission of current mobile communication signals through rain are compared and analyzed.The results show that the attenuation coefficient of THz transmission is increased with increasing precipitation rate,the difference of attenuation coefficient at different THz window waves is small,and the maximum difference is about 3 dB.The rain attenuation of THz wave is first decreased and then increased with increasing temperature,but the temperature has little effect on it.The attenuation of THz wave through rain is much larger than that of mobile communication signal.