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用“探索性数据”分析优选预测模型的研究 被引量:4
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作者 胡金莲 李天河 《长江科学院院报》 CSCD 北大核心 2002年第2期54-57,共4页
为了从三峡工程大量安全监测数据中 ,找出内在变化规律 ,建立一个能客观预测关键建筑部位变形及应力、应变情况的数学模型 ,采用“探索性数据”分析法即类比优选法对预测模型的构建进行了研究。以三峡二期上游围堰第一道防渗墙为例 ,用... 为了从三峡工程大量安全监测数据中 ,找出内在变化规律 ,建立一个能客观预测关键建筑部位变形及应力、应变情况的数学模型 ,采用“探索性数据”分析法即类比优选法对预测模型的构建进行了研究。以三峡二期上游围堰第一道防渗墙为例 ,用多元回归、灰色模型、时间序列统计方法构造了 3种预测模型 ,通过对预测模型的计算值及实测值进行对比分析 ,可以看出 :多元非线性回归模型的残差较小 ,计算结果的拟合程度及模型反映的规律性均较好 ;时间序列模型次之 ;灰色模型的拟合程度及残差均偏离较大。实测数据检验表明 ,回归模型预测效果较好 ,其测值在预报范围内的可能性为 95 % ,为此 ,选定多元非线性回归模型为预测模型。 展开更多
关键词 安全监测 预测模型 “探索性数据”分析 大坝 三峡工程
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The Relationship Between Exposure to Televised Violence and Malaysian Adolescents' Aggressive Behaviours" A Structural Equation Modelling Analysis
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作者 Mohd Adnan Hashim Mohammad Yaacob 《Journalism and Mass Communication》 2012年第8期791-803,共13页
Previous studies on the relationship between exPosure to televised violence and viewers' aggressive behaviours have produced mixed results. Some studies have found significant effect sizes while others have found low... Previous studies on the relationship between exPosure to televised violence and viewers' aggressive behaviours have produced mixed results. Some studies have found significant effect sizes while others have found low and non-significant effect sizes. Television effects scholars have postulated that these mixed results are caused by the inconsistencies of research methodology employed and the inability to control major mediating variables in the studies. The present study is designed with the objectives to overcome these shortcomings. The respondents for this study were 514 students aged between 13 and 18 from 10 schools in the State of Perak, Malaysia. Exploratory data analyses provided evidence that the employed instruments achieved sound psychometric properties. Hypotheses testing suggested that exposure to the Contents of Television Violence (TVCN) did not have a direct relationship with adolescents' aggressive behaviours; instead, Contextual Features of Television Violence (TVCX) totally mediated this relationship. Some other mediating variables then mediated totally and some mediated partially the relationship between TVCX and adolescents' aggressive behaviours. To conclude, this study provides valuable information for parents, the television industry, and the policy makers in recognizing pro-violent and anti-violent features of television violence programmes for Malaysian school-going adolescents. It also provides a new perspective for future studies of television violence in Malaysia. 展开更多
关键词 TV exposure televised violence media effect adolescents mediating analyses and full structural model
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