Measuring Chinese Marine Environmental Efficiency:A Spatiotemporal Pattern Analysis

Environmental efficiency standards are often used to evaluate the costs of oceanic economic development. A variety of statistical analyses were applied in this study to quantify the marine environmental efficiency of 11 Chinese coastal provinces and municipalities between 2000 and 2014. Results initially reveal that environmental efficiency measures that incorporate undesirable outputs are more consistent with real production conditions and thus the use of marine economic and environmental efficiencies supplement and complement one another. Second, overall marine environmental efficiency across China tends to be low and can be spatially characterized by a transformation such that the inefficiencies noted in 2000 have subsequently been transformed to comprise a three-tiered structure that encompasses northern, central, and southern cores. Third, variation in absolute and relative marine environmental efficiency differences for the coastal regions of China have been consistent over time; values initially decreased before increasing again in a fluctuating manner over the time period of this analysis. Fourth, data show that the Pearl River Delta area has experienced the highest rate of change in marine environmental efficiency over time when economic zones are used as basic research units, although values have nevertheless fluctuated significantly. Fifth, values for total factor productivity as well as technical efficiency and change across the Chinese marine economy all fluctuated over time but increased. Data show that changes in marine environmental efficiency across China can primarily be attributed to progress in marine science and technology. Finally, levels of capital investment and marine industrial pollution intensity are not significantly correlated with marine environmental efficiency. Indeed, both marine industrial structural levels and environmental protection technologies have had a positive effect on environmental efficiency while levels of investment in marine scientific research as well as the scale of economic development, the marine economy, and the degree of external openness have all exerted negative effects on this key variable.

The economic impact of emission peaking control policies and China's sustainable development

To achieve the goals of national sustainable development, the peaking control of CO2 emissions is pivotal, as well as other pollutants. In this paper, we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies and their combinations. By analyzing the energy consumptions, coal consumptions, relating emissions and their impacts on GDP, we found that with the structure adjustment policy, the proportion of coal in primary fossil fuels in 2030 will decrease from 53% to 48% and CO2 emissions will decrease by 11.3%-22.8% compared to the baseline scenario. With the energy intensity reduction policy, CO2 emissions will decrease by 33.3% in 2030 and 47.8% in 2050 than baseline scenario. Other pollutants will also be controlled as synergetic effects. In this study we also find that although the earlier the peaking time the better for emission amounts control, the economic costs can not be ignored. The GDP will decrease by 2.96%-8.23% under different scenarios. Therefore, integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package and more targeted measures are required to achieve the peaks of other pollutants earlier.

Residents′Activity-travel Behavior Variation by Communities in Beijing,China

China's transition from a planned economy to a market economy has resulted in many changes in its urban structure and society and provided an opportunity for a quasi-longitudinal case study on the relationship between the built environment and activity-travel behavior.This paper draws upon data from an activity diary survey conducted in Beijing in 2007.The survey sample comprised 652 residents living in Danwei(work unit),commodity housing,and affordable housing neighborhoods.On the basis of the three-dimensional geo-visualization analysis of the space-time path and statistical multivariate regression models of daily travel and leisure time,it was found that both residential spatial factors and socio-demographics influence residents' daily behaviors.The findings show that Danwei residents have less daily travel time than those who live in commodity housing,but people living in affordable housing endure the longest travel time.Daily leisure time is associated more with individual attributes.We argue that although China's transition is currently gradual,the Danwei system may continue to play significant roles in daily life,and it might provide a valuable model for neighborhood spatial planning.

Dynamic optimization of cutoff grade in underground metal mining

In order to maximize the overall economic gain from a metal mine operation, selection of cutoff grades must consider two important aspects: the time value of money and the spatial variation of the grade distribution in the deposit. That is, cutoff grade selection must be dynamic with respect to both time and space. A newly developed method that fulfills these requirements is presented. In this method, the deposit or a portion of it under study is divided into "decision units" based on the mining method and sample data. The statistical grade distribution and the grade-tonnage relationship of each decision unit are then computed based on the samples falling in the unit. Each decision unit with its grade-tonnage relationship is considered as a stage in a dynamic programming scheme and the problem is solved by applying a forward dynamic programming based algorithm with an objective function of maximizing the overall net present value (NPV). A software package is developed for the method and applied to an underground copper mine in Africa.

Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Urban Smart Development in China and Its Driving Mechanism

Smart urban development is an inevitable choice, and is essential to overall strength improvement. It is important to explore an urban smart development path which unites smart growth with driving shrinkage perfectly in forming scientific and sustainable development concept and responding to new normal strategic opportunities. Based on statistic data of 294 prefecture-level cities and above in China from 2000 to 2015, we analyzed spatial and temporal evolution of urban smart development in China by constructing a dynamic fitting model of urban land expansion, population growth, and economic development as well as the coefficient of variation of urban smart development(CVSD). Further efforts were then made to consider differential distribution regularity of urban smart development so as to understand the driving mechanisms of heterogeneous classification of urban smart development in China from different scales and scale variation. Our results indicate that: 1) the disordered growth tendency of urban cities in China is overall well controlled in the middle, and late research and it mainly presented a doublet coexistence of shrinkage disordered cities and smart developing cities. It is particularly obvious that Northeast China and East China have regarded shrinkage disordered cities and smart developing cities as main development tendency separately. 2) Areas with basic stability and relative variation were relatively dispersed across the time period, but the proportion was far beyond areas with significant variation. It demonstrates a relative equilibrium spatial and temporal differential evolution pattern of prefecture-level cities and above in China, except for Tongling, Lanzhou and Chaoyang. 3) prefecture-level cities and above in China are mostly characterized by shrinkage disordered and smart development classification under the background of different scale and scale variation from 2000–2015; however, the spatial resonance relation is not obvious. 4) There are many interaction factors forming an important driving mechanism in developing the spatial and temporal pattern of urban smart development in China, including natural geographical factors, industrial structure adjustment, human capital radiation, regional traffic accessibility, and government decision-making intervention.

Extraction of Basic Trends of Urban Expansion in China over Past 40 Years from Satellite Images

If urban sprawl is to be avoided in China in the next ten years, it is not only crucial to understand the overall history, current status, and future trends of urban expansion there, but also these differences, and this is presently lacking. In this study, remotely sensed images with approximately 30 m spatial resolution were used to quantitatively assess the spatial and temporal patterns of urban expansion of 60 Chinese cities(1973–2013). Urban-expansion-process curves of the cities studied were drawn using annual expansion area as an indicator. Curve similarity analysis generated four basic process modes of urban expansion in China. These included cities that: 1) peaked around 2004 and then decelerated; 2) peaked around 2010 and then decelerated; 3) showed sustained acceleration, and 4) showed continued deceleration. Four basic process modes represented cities under different levels of development stage. Geographic location was found to be the most related characteristic to urban expansion process. Regional development policies at the national level in each region also showed highly temporal consistency with fluctuation characteristics of urban expansion process. Urban characteristic such as population size and administrative level were not found to be significantly related to urban expansion-process modes. Understanding the basic process-mode categories well is extremely important for future regional-balance planning and development of macroeconomic policies.

Non-classical Algorithm for Time Series Prediction of the Range of Economic Phenomena With Regard to the Interaction of Financial Market Indicators

The aim of the article is to present non-clasical copyrighted algorithm for prediction of time series, presenting macroeconomic indicators and stock market indices. The algorithm is based on artificial neural networks and multi-resolution analysis （the algorithm is based on Daubechies wavelet）. However, the main feature of the algorithm, which gives a good quality of the forecasts, is all included in the series analysis division into, a few partial under-series and prediction dependence on a number of other economic series. The algorithm used for the prediction, is copyrighted algorithm, labeled M.H-D in this article. Application of the algorithm was performed on a series presenting WIG 20. The forecast of WIG 20 was conditional on trading the Dow Jones, DAX, Nikkei, Hang Seng, taking into account the sliding time window. As an example application of copyrighted model, the forecast of WIG 20 for a period of two years, one year, six month was appointed. An empirical example is described. It shows that the proposed model can predict index with the scale of two years, one year, a half year and other intervals. Precision of prediction is satisfactory. An average absolute percentage error of each forecast was： 0.0099%---for two-year forecasts WIG 20; 0.0552%--for the annual forecast WIG 20; and 0.1788%---for the six-month forecasts WIG 20.

Time Series of Random Macro-price and Application

This paper tries to utilize the methods of stochastic analysis and matrix analysis to research the existential problem of price series. By using the means of time series analysis, the input-output, Markov processes and the modern matrix analysis, the limiting problem of price balance and vibration in stochastic economic environment has been researched, and surprising conclusions obtained are as following： the probability that the economic collapse time is equal ∞ is 0.

New Keynesian Model and Inflation Prediction

Recently, much dispute has occurred about the validity of the New Keynesian model from both theoretical and empirical views. However, a few studies have analyzed this model from the empirical perspective. Few other studies have analyzed this model directly or nearly directly. This article empirically examines the New Keynesian model focusing on inflation forecast. Generalized method of moments （GMM） is used to examine whether the typical Keynesian model with Taylor rule is empirically appropriate for the US, UK, Euro area, and Japan. The results showed： （1） the New Keynesian model fits well in most cases and explains the real economy well. Taylor rule also fits well for most cases; （2） Rational expectations for inflation rates may not be useful based on this model When AR （1） （time series analysis） model is used to capture inflation expectations instead of one-time ahead real values, the model fits well. With measured expectations, the relative weight of the forward-looking terms increase on the cost of lagged inflation and output terms, even up to the point at which the lagged inflation terms are no longer needed to rescue the new Keynesian model; and （3） Forward-looking variables play more important roles than backward-looking ones in economic activity. Results with expectations with forward-looking terms perform better in general. This New Keynesian model may reduce the importance of lagged output in some cases

Is the Internal Market Able to Accommodate the Strong Growth Projected for Brazilian Aquaculture？

The Brazilian aquaculture industry has shown a strong production growth in recent years. Regarding consumption, analysts believe in a potential expansion of domestic demand for fish in Brazil due to current low per capita consumption and a growing deficit of trade balance. This paper intends to investigate whether there is domestic demand to absorb the increased supply provided by the growth of aquaculture production in Brazil. The investigation consisted in analyze the relationship between the domestic consumption, the population income and the fish price, and analyzed the behavior of this consumption due to the increase of production, using annual time series from 1995 to 2009. Econometric methods of time series showed that could not be said that there will be balance in the fish market.

1935——1939年美国对欧外交行动的特点及其内部制约因素

欧洲这一时期发生了一系列重大事件:意大利入侵埃塞俄比亚,西班牙內战,德国吞并奥地利、捷克,大国间外交谈判等。美国政府对此作出的外交反应表现出一种"姿态外交"的特点。从內部来看,这种外交行动是美国领导人参与世界事务的决心、军事实力暂时不足和孤立主义思潮等因素相互作用的产物。

Wavelets as Basis Functions in the Adaptation＇s Methods： Author＇s Model for Forecasting Short-Term

The aim of this article is to present author＇s application of wavelets to predict short-term macroeconomic indicators Proposed to predict short-term time series （in particular for predicting macroeconomic indicators）, proprietary model is based on wavelet analysis with Haar wavelets, Daubechies wavelets, and adaptive models; they are the trend crawling model and alignment exponential model. Adaptive models have been modified through the introduction of wavelet function and combined into a single forecast model. Obtained from conducted research results, it shows the model an effective instrument to predict the short-term.

Modeling the growth and policy implications of Global System for Mobile Telecommunication （GSM） in Nigeria

This paper investigated the growth and policy implications of Global System for Mobile Communication in Nigeria. Stochastic economic modeling was used to analyze Nigeria＇s time series data. The models were adjudged reliable before they were used. The components of the model were defined and a prior expectation of the relationship among the variables explained for the purpose of giving the reviewers and users a deep insight into the phenomenon under study. The secondary data used for the study were processed using the E-View for windows electronic packages. The outcome of the empirical and stochastic investigations shows that Global System for Mobile Communication has a positive relationship with output growth in Nigeria. The impact is of a higher magnitude. The usage of Global System for Mobile Telecommunication led to 17 percent rise in the output growth. The findings suggest the need for the Nigerian Communication Commission （NCC） and the federal government of Nigeria to expand tele-density and directly make telephone communications cheap and accessible. To achieve this goal, more licenses should be given to GSM operators in order to allow for healthy competition among them. This will lead to improved quality of services, quality of product and consequently sustain the growth and development of the country.

Study on Impact of Embodied Energy and CO2 Emissions for Prolongation of Building Life Time： Case Study in Japan

In this study, we looked at a method quantifying EEC （embodied energy and CO2） and the effect when we prolonged the building life time particularly through the durable improvement of the structure. Increasing the covering thickness of concrete for reinforcing bars and the earthquake-resistant strength are methods to increase the durability of the structure. The calculation method to obtain the quantity of concrete and reinforcing bars is provided. The EEC increase is evaluated from the 2005 input-output table in Japan. These results show that EE （embodied energy） in the construction phase is increased by 11% to 20% and EC （embodied CO2） 17% to 32%. However, annual EE is reduced 66% to 72% and EC 70% to 79%,

Migration Effects to the Marine Ecosystem of Barangay Concepcion

Concepcion is one of the small island barangay in the municipality of Agutaya. It has a total landmass of 132.297 hectares. It is located within Quinluban group of islands. This place has the variety of natural resources like seaweeds, turtles, fish and other seafood. The prominent product in this island is ＂agar-agar＂ also known as Tambalang （local name） and other marine resources. This study determined the effects of migration to the marine ecosystem of the place. Survey method and interview schedule were used during the data gathering. Results show that most migrants came to plant seaweeds or agar-agar. Poverty motivated them to migrate in the area. The abundance of marine resources also is one of the factors for migration for these people. They experienced poverty and economic crisis in their previous place which motivated them to explore and migrate to support their basic needs.

Individual departure time decision considering departure scheduling utility

The scheduling utility plays a fundamental role in addressing the commuting travel behaviours. A new scheduling utility,termed as DMRD-SU, was suggested based on some recent research findings in behavioural economics. DMRD-SU admitted the existence of positive arrival-caused utility. In addition, besides the travel-time-caused utility and arrival-caused utility, DMRD-SU firstly took the departure utility into account. The necessity of the departure utility in trip scheduling was analyzed comprehensively,and the corresponding individual trip scheduling model was presented. Based on a simple network, an analytical example was executed to characterize DMRD-SU. It can be found from the analytical example that: 1) DMRD-SU can predict the accumulation departure behaviors at NDT, which explains the formation of daily serious short-peak-hours in reality, while MRD-SU cannot; 2)Compared with MRD-SU, DMRD-SU predicts that people tend to depart later and its gross utility also decreases faster. Therefore,the departure utility should be considered to describe the traveler's scheduling behaviors better.

The Study of the Market Economy Problem by the Method of Econophysics

The article considers the econophysical analysis of the relationship between monopoly and competition by using the methods, terms of physics. And it was investigated the philosophy of progress. It has been shown that in the transition from absolute monopoly to imperfect monopoly, the system becomes more complex, and its output characteristics depend on time, because monopoly is a natural, competitive is derivative process. Competition is created as a result of the interaction of at least two ~monopoly firms＂ through the ~market field＂ that they create to increase the production which is necessary of non-linear products over time. To do this, it is sufficient to have a multitude of firms interacting with each other under the influence force of ~market field＂. To create the necessary conditions, it is sufficient to have a high level of university education and a legal field for competition and unbreakable antitrust legislation. By acquiring technology and creating conditions for competition in the market, it is possible to achieve progress even without having a strong science. The term ~progress＂ has received a new content and is defined as the value of a numerically equal increase in the rate of production per unit time or production per squared time. It has been shown that the relationship between monopoly and competition is very simple and there is no contradiction between them. Initially, the market is born as a monopoly, and then analogical firms were created, competition between firms begins

The permanence of a higher order discrete time system

The permanence of a nonlinear higher order discrete time system from macroeconomics is studied, and a sufficient condition is proposed for the permanence of the system described by 11(,...,)nnnnkxrxfxx---=+ where :kfRR, the initial values 01,,kxx-are real numbers and [0,1)r is constant after exploring the relationship between this equation and 1(,...,)nnnkxfxx--= for certain classes of function f. As an application a short proof is given to a known result in a simpler way than ever reported.

The Role of the Project Manager in Construction Projects in India

In India, the construction industry plays an important role in the economy of the country. It employs a sizeable portion of the work force, contributes largely to the gross domestic product （GDP） of the country, and is seen as a key catalyst for the growth and development of the Indian economy. The industry, however, is beset with many challenges, including delivering projects within projected costs and delivery dates and at the right quality to increasingly discerning clients. It is because of this that project management has assumed so much importance with the project manager seen to be a critical resource in the project achieving its objectives. However, the role of the project manager is still ambiguous. These research hypotheses that the role the project manager ought to play is that of a leader. It is only when project managers assume leadership roles that construction projects achieve objectives measured against time, cost, quality, and customer satisfaction. A quantitative approach was followed in this using both theoretical and analytic methods. The theoretical studies revealed the qualities, skills, and competencies that a project manager ought to possess and the links between the project manager assuming a position of leadership and the project achieving its objectives. The main data collection tool in the analytic method was an online questionnaire administered to 20 project managers of construction projects in India. It was found that while the Indian construction industry does recognize the significance of project managers, their role is relegated to administrative, monitoring, and supervision tasks. There is an overwhelming focus on technical skills. In those cases, where project managers were involved in all the stages of the project and possessed a gamut of managerial, technical, human, and interpersonal skills, there were substantial differences in terms of time, cost, quality, and customer satisfaction in the projects administered by them. The importance of this research stems from its alerting the construction sector in India to the true role that project managers ought to play. If it serves in a shift in the perception of the role of the project managers, this research would have served its purpose.

Reflections on the management of agricultural economy in transition time of agricultural economy

In recent years, although farmers＇ income from agriculture is declining year by year, but the agricultural one is still the most important source of income. Factors determining the size of the total agricultural income are two sides： one is agricultural prices and the other is agricultural production. Obviously, because enhancements of China agricultural production capacity and several price increases of agricultural products, market saturation occurs in China＇ s major agricultural products and the price is close to or above the average level of international market. Simply relying on production increase and price hike has no longer satisfied growth needs of agricultural income.