正确认识新时代我国社会主要矛盾的转化

党的十九大就新时代我国社会主要矛盾已转化的重大判断,是以习近平同志为核心的党中央顺应时势,对新时代下新的世情、国情的回应。这一重大判断是我国最大实际与根本任务"未变"背景下阶段性特征与发展重心的"已变",是党理论创新的重要成果,进一步提升了党对社会主要矛盾的认识水平,也为制定正确的政策提供了坚实的依据。

Inter-decadal variations,causes and future projection of the Asian summer monsoon

The present paper presents a concise summary of our recent studies on the Asian summer monsoon,with highting decadal and inter- decadal scales. The studies on the long- term variations of the Asian summer monsoon and its impacts on the change in the summer precipitation in China are reviewed. Moreover,recent changes in the Asian summer monsoon and summer precipitation in East Asia(including Meiyu precipitation)are discussed. Finally,the future changes of the Asian summer monsoon are also pointed out in this paper.

Pathways for Elevating China’s Opening-up under the New Development Paradigm

Due to the superimposed impacts of new industrial revolution,the changing trade policy and the COVID-19 pandemic,the world has seen setbacks in globalization,contractions in the global value chain(GVC),and the risk of a fragmented global system.The once-in-a-century changes in our world today highlight the need for China to explore a new development paradigm based on new concepts.In the new era,China must not only come to terms with a backlash against globalization and challenges from the reshaping of international rules,but also breathe life into the“dual circulations,”i.e.domestic and international economic circulations.China must open up wider to the outside world to keep abreast with changes in today’s global governance system.In the complex and volatile international environment,we should explore new areas of development spearheaded by institutional opening up,create new gateways and platforms for opening up and cooperation for mutual benefit,contribute to new global governance and security systems,and promote synergy between domestic and international circulations.In building a great modern socialist country,China must open up wider and be more inclusive to the outside world.

Vegetation Cover Variation in the Qilian Mountains and its Response to Climate Change in 2000-2011

An understanding 0f variati0ns in vegetati0n c0ver in resp0nse t0 climate change is critical f0r predicting and managing future terrestrial ec0system dynamics. Because scientists anticipate that m0untain ec0systems will be m0re sensitive t0 future climate change c0mpared t0 0thers, 0ur 0bjectives were t0 investigate the impacts 0f climate change 0n variati0n in vegetati0n c0ver in the Qilian M0untains （QLM）, China, between 2000 and 2011. T0 acc0mplish this, we used linear regressi0n techniques 0n 250-m MODIS N0rmalized Difference Vegetati0n Index （NDVI） datasets and mete0r0l0gical rec0rds t0 determine spati0temp0ral variability in vegetati0n c0ver and climatic fact0rs （i.e. temperature and precipitati0n）. Our results sh0wed that temperatures and precipitati0n have increased in this regi0n during 0ur study peri0d. In additi0n, we f0und that gr0wing seas0n mean NDVI was mainly distributed in the vertical z0ne fr0m 2,700 m t0 3,600 m in elevati0n. In the study regi0n, we 0bserved significant p0sitive and negative trends in vegetati0n c0ver in 26.71% and 2.27% 0f the vegetated areas. C0rrelati0n analyses indicated that rising precipitati0n fr0m May t0 August was resp0nsible f0r increased vegetati0n c0ver in areas with p0sitive trends in gr0wing seas0n mean NDVI. H0wever, there was n0 similar significant c0rrelati0n between gr0wing seas0n mean NDVI and precipitati0n in regi0ns where vegetati0n c0ver declined thr0ugh0ut 0ur study peri0d. Using spatial statistics, we f0und that veeetati0n c0ver freauentlvdeclined in areas within the 2,500-3,100 m vertical z0ne, where it has steep sl0pe, and is 0n the sunny side 0f m0untains. Here, the p0sitive influences 0f increasing precipitati0n c0uld n0t 0ffset the drier c0nditi0ns that 0ccurred thr0ugh warming trends. In c0ntrast, in higher elevati0n z0nes （3,900-4,500 m） 0n the shaded side 0f the m0untains, rising temperatures and increasing precipitati0n impr0ved c0nditi0ns f0r vegetati0n gr0wth. Increased precipitati0n als0 facilitated vegetati0n gr0wth in areas experiencing warming trends at l0wer elevati0ns （2,000-2,400 m） and 0n l0wer sl0pes where water was m0re easily c0nserved. We suggest that spatial differences in variati0n in vegetati0n as the result 0f climate change depend 0n l0cal m0isture and thermal c0nditi0ns, which are mainly c0ntr0lled by t0p0graphy （e.g. elevati0n, aspect, and sl0pe）, and 0ther fact0rs, such as l0cal hydr0l0gy.

The Influence of Climate Change on Winter Wheat during 2012-2100 under A2 and A1B Scenarios in China

By assuming constant winter wheat varieties and agricultural practices in China, the influence of climate change on winter wheat is simulated using the corrected future climate projections under SRES A2 and A1B scenarios from 2012 to 2100, respectively. The results indicate that the growth of winter wheat would be strongly influenced by climate change in future. The average flowering and maturity dates of winter wheat would advance by 26 and 27 days under scenario A2, and by 23 and 24 days respectively under scenario A1B from 2012 to 2100. The simulated potential productivity of winter wheat shows a decrease of 14.3% and 12.5% for scenarios A2 and A1B respectively without the fertilization effect of CO2, while an increase of 1.3% and 0.6% with the fertilization effect of CO2. Additionally, for northern China, the simulated potential productivity would markedly decrease under both scenarios, independent with the fertilization effect of CO2, which indicates that the current planted winter wheat would be more vulnerable than that in southern China. The most likely reason is the current winter wheat varieties in northern China are winter varieties or strong winter varieties, which need some days of low temperature for dormancy. While in southern China, the winter wheat is spring or half winter varieties and can grow slowly during winter, thus, they would be affected slightly when winter temperature increases. The results of this study may have important implications for adaptation measures.

Potential effects of future adoption of the REDD mechanism as a preventive measure against deforestation and forest degradation in North Korea

This study assesses potential effects of adaption to climate change in the future as a carbon related value using a baseline and credit approach, considering the implementation of the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation （REDD） mechanism. Basic data were obtained for implementing the REDD mechanism in the Democratic People＇s Republic of Korea （DPRK） for scientific decision-making to prevent deforestation and forest degradation. The potential effects according to the implementation of the REDD mechanism in the DPRK based on forest status data （the latest） are as follows. If the deforestation rate is reduced to a level below 6% through a 20-year REDD mechanism beginning in 2011, 0.01-11.64 C-tons of carbon credit per ha could be issued for DPRK. Converted into C02-tons per ha, this amounts to 0.03-42.68 C02-tons, which translates to a minimum of 226,000 CO2-tons and a maximum of 289,082,000 C02-tons overall for forests in DPRK. In terms of carbon price, this measures up to 1.1o million USD- 1.4 billion USD, considering that the REDD carbon price in voluntary carbon markets in 2010 was around 5 USD.

Carbon Dynamics in Woody Biomass of Forest Ecosystem in China with Forest Management Practices under Future Climate Change and Rising CO_2 Concentration

It is critical to study how different forest management practices affect forest carbon sequestration under global climate change regime. Previous researches focused on the stand-level forest carbon sequestration with rare investigation of forest carbon stocks influ- enced by forest management practices and climate change at regional scale. In this study, a general integrative approach was used to simulate spatial and temporal variations of woody biomass and harvested biomass of forest in China during the 21st century under dif- ferent scenarios of climate and CO2 concentration changes and management tasks by coupling Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon budget （InTEC） model with Global Forest Model （G4M）. The results showed that forest management practices have more predominant effects on forest stem stocking biomass than climate and CO2 concentration change. Meanwhile, the concurrent future changes in cli- mate and CO2 concentration will enhance the amounts of stem stocking biomass in forests of China by 12%-23% during 2001-2100 relative to that with climate change only. The task for maximizing stem stocking biomass will dramatically enhance the stem stocking biomass from 2001~100, while the task for maximum average increment will result in an increment of stem stocking biomass before 2050 then decline. The difference of woody biomass responding to forest management tasks was owing to the current age structure of forests in China. Meanwhile, the sensitivity of long-term woody biomass to management practices for different forest types （coniferous forest, mixed forest and deciduous forest） under changing climate and CO2 concentration was also analyzed. In addition, longer rotation length under future climate change and rising CO2 concentration scenario will dramatically increase the woody biomass of China during 2001~100. Therefore, our estimation indicated that taking the role of forest management in the carbon cycle into the consideration at regional or national level is very important to project the forest carbon sequestration under future climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Numerieal Prediction of Storm Surge in the Qingdao Area Under the Impact of Climate Change

A typhoon-induced storm surge simulation system was developed for the Qingdao area, including a typhoon diagnostic model for the generation of wind and pressure fields and a 2D Advanced Circulation(ADCIRC) model for simulating the associated storm surge with a 200 m resolution along the Qingdao coastline. The system was validated by an extreme surge event Typhoon Mamie(8509) and the parameters of Typhoon Mamie were used to investigate the sensitivity of typhoon paths to Qingdao storm surges with four selected paths: the paths of Typhoons Mamie(8509), Opal, 3921 and 2413, the selection being made according to their relative position to Qingdao. Experiments based on the Typhoon Mamie(8509) storm surge were also conducted to study the possible influences of future climate changes, including the sea level rise and sea surface temperature(SST) rise, on storm surges along the Qingdao coast. Storm surge conditions under both present day and future(the end of the 21 st century) climate scenarios associated with the four selected paths were simulated. The results show that with the same intensity, when typhoons follow the paths of 3921 and 2413, they would lead to the most serious disasters in different areas of Qingdao. Sea level and SST affect storm surges in different ways: sea level rise affects storm surge mainly through its influence on the tide amplitude, while the increased SST has direct impact on the intensity of the surges. The possible maximum risk of storm surges in 2100 in the Qingdao area caused by typhoons like Mamie(8509) was also estimated in this study.

Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow of Dongliao River Watershed in Jilin Province,China

The impacts of future climate change on streamflow of the Dongliao River Watershed located in Jilin Prov-ince, China have been evaluated quantitatively by using a general circulation model （HadCM3） coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） hydrological model. The model was calibrated and validated against the historical monitored data from 2005 to 2009. The streamflow was estimated by downscaling HadCM3 outputs to the daily mean temperature and precipitation series, derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Results suggest that daily mean temperature increases with a changing rate of 0.435~C per decade, and precipitation decreases with a changing rate of 0.761 mm per decade. Compared with other seasons, the precipitation in summer shows significant downward trend, while a significant upward trend in autumn. The annual streamflow demonstrates a general down-ward trend with a decreasing rate of 0.405 m^3/s per decade. The streamflow shows significant downward and upward trends in summer and in autumn, respectively. The decreasing rate of streamflow in summer reaches 1.97 m^3/s per decade, which contributes primarily to the decrease of streamflow. The results of this work would be of great benifit to the design of economic and social development planning in the study area.

Scheme for Teleportation of Unknown Entangled Atomic States via Cavity Decay

We present a physical scheme to teleport an unknown atomic entangled state via cavity decay. In the teleportation process, four-particle Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger （GHZ） state is used as quantum channel, and two unknown entangled atoms and two of four atoms in the four-particle GHZ state are trapped in four leaky cavities, respectively. Based on the joint detection of the photons leak out from the four cavities, we can teleport an unknown entangled state to two other remote atoms with certain probability and high fidelity.

Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Ecosystems in Northeast China

This paper reviews the studies and research on climate change impacts on the forest ecosystems in Northeast China. The results show that in the context of global and regional warming, the growing season of coniferous forests has been increasing at an average rate of 3.9 d per decade. Regional warming favors the growth of temperate broad-leaved forests and has a detrimental effect on the growth of boreal coniferous forests. Over the past hundred years, the forest edge of the cool temperate zone in the southern Daxing＇anling region has retreated 140 km northward. From 1896 to 1986, the northern boundary of broad-leaved forests in Heilongjiang province has extended northwestward about 290 km. Future climatic changes （until 2060） may lead to the northern deciduous needle forests moving out of China＇s territory altogether. The occurrence cycles of pests and diseases have shortened; their distribution ranges have expanded. The life cycle of tent caterpillars （Malacosoma neustria testacea Motschulsky） has shortened from 14-15 years in the past to 8-10 years now. The pine caterpillar （Dendrolimus tabulaeformis Tsai et Liu）, which has spread within western Liaoning province and the nearby areas, can now be found in the north and west. Lightning fires in the Daxing＇anling region have significantly increased since 1987, and August has become the month when lightning fires occur most frequently. Overall, the net primary productivity （NPP） of forest in Northeast China has increased. The NPP in 1981 was around 0.27 Pg C, and increased to approximately 0.40 Pg C in 2002. With the current climate, the broad-leaved Korean pine forest ecosystem acts as a carbon sink, with a carbon sink capacity of 2.7 Mg C hm-2. Although the carbon sink capacity of the forest ecosystems in Northeast China has been weakened since 2003, the total carbon absorption will still increase. The forest ecosystems in Northeast China are likely to remain a significant carbon sink, and will play a positive role in the mitigation of climate change.

Historical and Future Climatic Change Scenarios for Temperature and Rainfall for Iraq

The world is facing a big challenge of climatic change, mainly due to increasing concentrations of GHGs （greenhouse gases） in the atmosphere. Many researches indicated that the climate change occurred disproportionately on developing countries such as MENA （Middle East and North Africa） countries. The climatic model CGCM3.1 （T47） 2 is used in this research to explain the changes in average temperatures and the rainfall on the MENA region with special emphases on Iraq. Historical records （1900-2009） and future （2020-2099） were studied and compared; each period was divided to four sub-periods of thirty years. The results showed that the average monthly temperature for the four historical periods fluctuated between the lowest and highest value as follows： 9.2-32.9, 10.3-32.7, 9.3-32.8 and 8.6-33.9 （℃）. The rainfall for historical periods kept on the same distribution during the past 109 years, and fluctuated between the lowest and highest value of 21.3 mm and 37.6 mm with an average that reached up to 26.51 mm. For the future period, the maximum average monthly temperature reached up to 37.41 （℃） during June and minimum average monthly temperature reached up to 4.24 （℃） during January. The average monthly temperature fluctuated giving a clear impression that the future portends a higher temperature. The average monthly rainfall, for the future period, fluctuated between the lowest and highest value of 12.91 mm and 20.63 mm with an average that reached 16.84 mm which represent a reduction percentage of about 36.47% relative to the historical record of rainfall for the sanae months.

Trends in Significant Wave Height and Surface Wind Speed in the China Seas Between 1988 and 2011

Wind and waves are key components of the climate system as they drive air-sea interactions and influence weather systems and atmospheric circulation. In marine environments, understanding surface wind and wave fields and their evolution over time is important for conducting safe and efficient human activities, such as navigation and engineering. This study considers long-term trends in the sea surface wind speed(WS) and significant wave height(SWH) in the China Seas over the period 1988–2011 using the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform(CCMP) ocean surface wind product and a 24-year hindcast wave dataset obtained from the WAVEWATCH-III(WW3) wave model forced with CCMP winds. The long-term trends in WS and SWH in the China Seas are analyzed over the past 24 years to provide a reference point from which to assess future climate change and offshore wind and wave energy resource development in the region. Results demonstrate that over the period 1988–2011 in the China Seas: 1) WS and SWH showed a significant increasing trend of 3.38 cm s^(-1)yr^(-1) and 1.52 cm yr^(-1), respectively; 2) there were notable regional differences in the long-term trends of WS and SWH; 3) areas with strong increasing trends were located mainly in the middle of the Tsushima Strait, the northern and southern areas of the Taiwan Strait, and in nearshore regions of the northern South China Sea; and 4) the long-term trend in WS was closely associated with El Ni?o and a significant increase in the occurrence of gale force winds in the region.

Classification of Country Patterns in the World Based on Their Levels of Economy and Emission Process of Greenhouse Gases

According to the authoritative data involving social economic indicators and greenhouse gas （GHG） emission from the international universal database, the levels and processes of economic development and GHG emission in major economic groups, nations and regions of the world are simultaneously analyzed. Obtaining Gross Domestic Product （GDP） and emission per capita from various countries and regions in the past 40 years as the standard, countries and regions in the world are divided into six groups： countries with low emission per capita and low economic level （IA）, countries with low emission per capita and medium economic level （IIA）, countries with low emission per capita and high economic level （IIIA）, countries with high emission per capita and medium economic level （liB）, countries with high emission per capita and high economic level （IIIB）, countries with high emission per capita and low economic level （IB）. Countries belong to IB are quite rare in the study period, while the first five groups correspond to the poor regions, main developing countries, economically transitional countries with rapid economic development, rich islands and developed North America and Europe respectively. Data analysis shows that there is a close relationship between emission and economic development of different countries and regions. The composition relationship between economic development of different countries and regions is relatively stable over a long period of time. From 1970 to 2005, rising trends existed in the economic development of most countries and regions. However, the emission had a significant increase in a small part of countries and regions. In other words, for those with high emission, the emission level is always high. But for those with low GHG emission, the emission does not increase too much. The main processes of the change of countries pattern from IA to IIA and from II B to IIIB, occurring in the 1970s and from the late 1970s to the 1980s respectively. That result has .a significant enlightening effect in understanding the relationship between emission and eco- nomic development and its historical process of various countries and in choosing the position of our country in the future climate diplomatic negotiations.

Long-term variability of air temperature and precipitation conditions in the Polish Carpathians

Mountain regions are sensitive to climate changes, which make them good indicators of climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation in the Polish Carpathians. This study consists of climatological analyses for the historical period 1851-2010 and future projections for 2021-2100. The results confirm that there has been significant warming of the area and that this warming has been particularly pronounced over the last few decades and will continue in the oncoming years.Climate change is most evident in the foothills;however, these are the highest summits which have experienced the most intensive increases in temperature during the recent period. Precipitation does not demonstrate any substantial trend and has high year-to-year variability. The distribution of the annual temperature contour lines modelled for selected periods provides evidence of the upward shift of vertical climate zones in the Polish Carpathians,which reach approximately 350 meters, on average,what indicates further ecological consequences as ecosystems expand or become extinct and when there are changes in the hydrological cycle.

About A New Complex Method of Climates Reconstruction and Forecasting of Climate Changes in the Future

This paper deals with a new integrated method of reconstruction and forecasting of climatic changes in future. The method is based on proxy data pollen-spore analysis method, 14C analysis method, nowadays meteorological data, and data about of solar activity expressed in numbers of W （Wolf）. Here we present the results of investigation of sediments of the 2nd Fomich River terrace, Taymyr Peninsula, Russia. The formation of the peat bog started 10500 ± 140 years BP and continued during the entire Holocene. The pollen analysis of the sediment samples of the 2nd Fomich River terrace and the analysis of surface samples from a larch forest, typical of this region, reveals two phytochrones： both climatically preconditioned--tundra phytochrone （I1-4） and forest phytochrone （Ⅱ1-4）. The techniques of reconstruction and forecasting of basic elements of climate are presented and discussed in details.

Projected Changes in NO_x Emissions from Lightning as a Result of 2000–2050 Climate Change

Lightning is one of the most important natural sources of atmospheric NOx.The authors investigate the2000–2050 changes in NOx emissions from lightning using the global three-dimensional Goddard Earth Observing System chemical transport model(GEOS-Chem)driven by meteorological fields from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies(GISS)general circulation model(GCM)3.Projected changes in climate over 2000–2050are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)A1B scenario.The global NOx emission from lightning is simulated to be 4.8 Tg N in present day and to increase by about 16.7%over 2000–2050 as a result of the future climate change.The largest present-day emissions and climate-induced changes are found in the upper troposphere in the tropics.Regionally in eastern China(20–55 N,98–125 E),NOx emissions from lighting is simulated to be 0.3 Tg N(6.3%of the global total emission)in present day and to increase by 26.7%over2000–2050.The simulated changes in NOx from lightening correspond well with the projected future changes in convective precipitation.

On a Method of Climatological Observations Processing

The task of climate observation data processing is central to the quality of an assessment of future climate change impact. The current state-of-the-art is based on the long-running observation records of the meteorological stations. However, it is common for the developing states to have only relatively short and/or intermittent record histories. The issue becomes even more aggravated under an effort to assess the climatic trends for specific territories with few meteorological stations. The paper offers a simple and effective technique to handle the climate observations; the technique makes the most complete use of an available data set by counting the data provided by all meteorological stations including those with short records and omissions. The method is based on numeric differentiation of source data samples.

Predicting GM(1,N) Model for the Coefficient of Variation of Hectometer Yarn's Weight

The Coefficient of Variation(CV)of hectometer yarn's weight is one of the guidelines to evaluate its intrinsic quality.In the spinning manufacturing,the control of cotton yarn's weight unevenness is accomplished mainly in terms of a spot-check on semi-product and a succedent adjust in process parameters during spinning based on technicians' experience.However,it is theoretically believed among manufacturers that with fixed technical levels and parameters in the spinning process,the quality parameters of assorted cotton have a certain influence on the CV.In order to find out a rule of the influence that assorted cotton has on the CV,a GM(1,N)model,correlated raw cotton's quality parameter with the CV,has firstly been developed according to the modeling theory of grey system,and then been applied in the designing step to predict the CV.It has been approved by practical modeling and validation that the model could fit preferably an accrual CV value,and provide a method of quantitative predicting analysis for textile manufacturers to design cotton yarn's quality.

Variable structure control for descriptor Markovian jump systems subject to partially unknown transition probabilities

The descriptor Markovian jump systems( DMJSs)with partially unknown transition probabilities( PUTPs) are studied by means of variable structure control. First,by virtue of the strictly linear matrix inequality( LMI) technique,a sufficient condition is presented, under which the DMJSs subject to PUTPs are stochastically admissible. Secondly,a novel sliding surface function based on the system state and input is constructed for DMJSs subject to PUTPs; and a dynamic sliding mode controller is synthesized, which guarantees that state trajectories will reach the pre-specified sliding surface in finite time despite uncertainties and disturbances. The results indicate that by checking the feasibility of a series of LMIs,the stochastic admissibility of the overall closed loop system is determined. Finally,the validity of the theoretical results is illustrated with the example of the direct-current motor. Furthermore,compared with the existing literature,the state convergence rate,buffeting reduction and overshoot reduction are obviously optimized.