核心素养视域下初中历史学科关键能力的培养--以统编教材《中国历史》八年级上册“鸦片战争”“洋务运动”为例

初中历史课程属于基础教育范畴,具有基础性、普及性和发展性的特点,培养学生历史学科关键能力是当前初中历史教学的重要目标之一。以统编教材《中国历史》八年级上册“鸦片战争”“洋务运动”内容为例,教师在教学中应重视对学生的“读史”训练,有意识地引导学生明“史论”、辨“时空”、关注“述史”方法,初步形成“述史”能力;还应强化对学生的“析史”训练,指导学生在正确认识历史的同时,初步学会客观、全面分析历史和透过历史现象抓本质的分析方法,培养学生的历史学科关键能力。

A dynamic analysis of environmental losses from anthropogenic lead flow and their accumulation in China

Substance flow analysis was applied to analyzing the lead emissions in 2010. It turns out that in 2010, for every 1 kg of lead consumed, 0.48 kg lead is lost into the environment. The emissions in 2010 were estimated to be 1.89×10^6 t, which were mainly from use （39.20%） and waste management＆recycling （33.13%）. The accumulative lead in 1960-2010 from the anthropogenic flow was estimated and the results show that the total accumulative lead in this period amounted to 19.54×10^6 t, which was equivalent to 14.26 kg and 2.04 g/m^2 at the present population and territory.

Biogeography of the leafhopper subfamily Stegelytrinae(Hemiptera:Cicadellidae),based on a cluster analysis of geographical distribution in areas of endemism combined with phylogeny of the subfamily

Biogeography of the leaflaopper subfamily Stegelytrinae Baker is studied based on an analysis of geographical distribution of this subfamily worldwide using a cluster analysis of the zoological distribution of areas of endemism as well as the phylogeny of representatives of this subfamily. Results show that the Stegelytrinae mainly occur in the Oriental Region and in the Mediterranean area of the Palaearctic Region, and this extends to the east side of both Wallaee＇s and Weber＇s lines. Eleven areas of endemism of this subfamily are recognized. The proportions of endemic taxa in different areas of endemism are generally very high in comparison with other leaflaopper groups, but distinct differences could be found among the different areas of endemism of Stegelytrinae. This subfamily is most intensively diversified in the Indochina Peninsula （INCN）. This is the stegelytrine distribution center, having the highest biodiversity at both genetic and species levels. The dendrogram of endemic areas of Stegelytrinae constructed using cluster analysis of the zoological distribution of Stegelytrinae at generic level shows the endemic areas of Stegelytrinae can be divided into 4 large groups. Relationships among different endemic areas of Stegelytrinae correspond largely to the geologic history of related areas, which indicates that the evolution and vicariance of this subfamily have been closely related to the history of continental drift and climate changes. It is deduced that the presumed monophyletic Stegelytrinae originated in the Oriental Region after North America had separated from Eurasia; this is the case in the monophyletic genera group which is supported by the lateral frontal sutures extending dorsally well beyond the corresponding ocellus. In addition, two expanding traces of the Stegelytrinae are presumed, which remain plausible explanations for the dispersal of Stegelytrinae： （1） New Guinea （and probably （＋ Australia）） - Kalimantan - Sumatra - Malay Peninsula - Indochina Peninsula - Central and Southern China - （Southwestern China ＋ Nepal ＋ Northeastern India） - （Northwestern India ＋ Eastern Afghanistan）; and （2） Indochina Peninsula- Central and Southern China- （Western Asia ＋ Mediterranean Sea coastal area）.

What is the quantitative risk of gastric cancer in the first-degree relatives of patients? A meta-analysis

AIMTo quantify the risk of gastric cancer in first-degree relatives of patients with the cancer.METHODSA comprehensive literature search was performed. Case-control trials comparing the frequency of a positive family history of gastric cancer in patients with gastric cancer, vs non-gastric cancer controls were retrieved. Studies with missed or non-extractable data, studies in children, abstracts, and duplicate publications were excluded. A meta-analysis of pooled odd ratios was performed using Review Manager 5.0.25. We performed subgroup analysis on Asian studies and a sensitivity analysis based on the quality of the studies, type of the outcome, sample size, and whether studies considered only first-degree relatives.RESULTSThirty-two relevant studies out of 612 potential abstracts (n = 80690 individuals) were included. 19.0% of the patients and 10.9% of the controls had at least one relative with gastric cancer (P < 0.00001). The pooled relative risk for the development of gastric cancer in association with a positive family history was 2.35 (95%CI: 1.96-2.81). The Cochran Q test for heterogeneity was positive (P < 0.00001, I² = 92%). After excluding the three outlier studies with the highest relative risks, heterogeneity remained significant (P < 0.00001, I² = 90%). The result was not different among Asian studies as compared to others and remained robust in several sensitivity analyses. In the 26 studies which exclusively analysed the history of gastric cancer in first-degree relatives, the relative risk was 2.71 (95%CI: 2.08-3.53; P < 0.00001).CONCLUSIONIndividuals with a first-degree relative affected with gastric cancer have a risk of about 2.5-fold for the development of gastric cancer. This could be due to genetic or environmental factors. Screening and preventive strategies should be developed for this high-risk population.

A brief introduction to neutron activation analysis in China―history,major achievements,and future perspectives

The history,the major achievements in both methodology and applications,the current trends and future perspectives of neutron activation analysis (NAA) in China are briefly described.

A Method for Node Fault Detection in Wireless Sensor Networks

To reduce excessive computing and communication loads of traditional fault detection methods,a neighbor-data analysis based node fault detection method is proposed.First,historical data is analyzed to confirm the confidence level of sensor nodes.Then a node's reading data is compared with neighbor nodes' which are of good confidence level.Decision can be made whether this node is a failure or not.Simulation shows this method has good effect on fault detection accuracy and transient fault tolerance,and never transfers communication and computing overloading to sensor nodes.

Body mass index does not affect the survival of pancreatic cancer patients

AIM to evaluate the association of body mass index(b MI) with the overall survival of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma(PDAC) patients.METHODS A retrospective analysis of PDAC patients diagnosed in the National Cancer Center of China between January 1999 and December 2014 was performed. these patients were categorized into four b MI groups(< 18.5, 18.5-22.9, 23-27.4 and ≥ 27.5 kg/m2). χ2 tests for comparison of the proportions of categorical variables, and Student's t-test or Mann-Whitney test for continuous variables were employed. Survival analysis was performed with the Kaplan-Meyer method. their HRs of mortality and 95%CIs were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model.RESULTS With a median age of 59.6 years(range: 22.5-84.6 years), in total 1783 PDAC patients were enrolled in this study. their mean usual b MI was 24.19 ± 3.53 for the whole cohort. More than half of the patients(59.3%) experienced weight loss during the disease onset and progression. Compared with healthy-weight individuals, newly diagnosed patients who were overweight or obese had more severe weight loss during their disease onset and progression(P < 0.001). Individuals who were overweight or obese were associated with positive smoking history(P < 0.001). A significant difference in comorbidity of diabetes(P = 0.044) and coronary artery disease(P < 0.001) was identified between high b MI and normal-weight patients. After a median follow-up of 8 mo, the survival analysis showed no association between b MI and the overall survival(P = 0.90, n = 1783). When we stratified the whole cohort by pancreatic cancer stage, no statistically significant association between b MI and overall survival was found for resectable(P = 0.99, n = 217), unresectable locally advanced(P = 0.90, n = 316) and metastatic patients(P = 0.88, n = 1250), respectively. the results did not change when we used the b MI at diagnosis.CONCLUSION Our results showed no significance of b MI for the overall survival of PDAC patients.

History of the Establishment and Development of X-Ray Analysis Methods in Russia--The USSR. First 20 Years

2012 is a year of celebrate centenary of X-ray discovery information about Laue＇s （Fridrich and Knipping） experiment was This discovery spread quickly in different countries. The history of written in the paper. Also history mention of Laue＇s experiment in Russia was presented. The system group of X-ray diffraction was created in 1919/1920 in Petrograd （A. Ioffe, State Physical Technical Institute） and Moscow. Themes of research results, scientific newness and scientific rate were presented. The organization, political and other reasons which retarded the active progress of the method in 1930 were described. Initial stage of progress of the method in Russia-USSR was studied by historian of science partly. The reasons of it are： closed of scientific community, political system of country, Cyrillic barrier, etc.. This paper acquaints western scientific community with non-famous Russian materials on theme.

Dynamic Analysis of Historical Brick Masonry House

Brick masonry constructions are very common in many areas in the world and their failure in earthquakes has been the cause of many deaths. Since human safety is main issue of disaster management, people are more concerned about the structural assessment and strengthening of those constructions. One historical brick masonry house located in Kathmandu world heritage site is modeled by FEM （finite element method） and analyzed in E1 Centro earthquake ground motions. Bricks are modeled as solid elements and the interfaces between the brick units are modeled as zero thickness joint elements. Then, non-linear analyses of the house are applied satisfying the famous Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. The result shows that the house is very weak and sustains large deformation in El Centro 1940 Earthquake. A strengthening solution modifying the connections of existing elements and adding wooden frame inside the house can reduce the deformations significantly.

Quantitative Seismicity Analysis for the Risk of Historical Large Earthquake Rupture Zone:Application to the Mid-North Segment of the North-South Seismic Belt

Although seismic gap theory plays an important role in the med-and long-term earthquake prediction,the potential risk of the non-seismic gap in historical earthquake rupture areas will need to be simultaneously taken into account in the study of med-and long-term earthquake prediction,due to the temporally clustering or non-linear behavior of large earthquake recurrence.In order to explore technical methods which can be based on observational data,and identify historical earthquake rupture zones( including the seismic gap in historical and prehistoric earthquake rupture zones),we select eight historical large earthquake rupture zones with different elapsed times on the mid-north segment of the North-South Seismic Belt to make quantitative analysis on the characteristics of modern seismicity of these zones and preliminarily explore the seismicity method for determining the urgency degree of potential earthquake hazards.The results mainly show that the pvalue,which reflects the attenuation of earthquake sequence,and the a-value,which reflects the seismicity rate,are strongly related to the elapsed time of the latest earthquake in the rupture zone.However,the corresponding relationships in some rupture areas are not clear perhaps due to the complex fault structure and faulting behavior.The b-value,which represents the state of tectonic stress accumulation,does not easily reflect the elapsed time information of different evolution stages.The b-value temporal scanning shows a steady evolution over time in most of the rupture zones,but in the rupture zone of the Wudu M8.0 earthquake of 1879,the b-value shows significant fluctuations with a decreasing trend for 20 years.By comparative analysis,we conclude that the rupture zones of the 1933 M7.5 Maoxian earthquake and the 1976 M7.2 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake are still in the decaying period of earthquake sequences,and thus do not have the background for recurrence of M7.0 earthquakes.The low b-value Maqu segment,which is located at the north margin of the rupture zone of the 842A.D.M7.0 Diebu earthquake,is more dangerous than the Diebu segment.The continuous decline of the b-value in the 1879 M8.0 Wudu earthquake rupture zone may also indicate a new round of seismogenic process.

Risk Analysis of Historic Urban Areas： A Case Study of the Salerno City, Italy

The preservation of historical and cultural heritage from seismic risk is a question of interest in Italy. However, too little has been done to deal with this problem. First of all, the seismic safety of cultural heritage should be a topic of prevention. The research described in the paper presents a multi-approach procedure to address risk assessment of large-scale urban systems with the aim to contribute at the development of risk mitigation policies for historical centers buildings. The observation of the earthquakes effects in Italy clearly highlights the role of the high vulnerability of the existing building on the consequences in terms of casualties and damage, rather than the severity of seismic events, especially in historical contexts. Unlike the new buildings which should be planned and designed to respect seismic safety requirements, existing buildings require a careful safety assessment on the basis of their susceptibility to damage which depends on building techniques, past damage events, maintenance, changes, etc.

A Case of Multiple Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STDs),with Stevens-Johnson Syndrome and Mediastinal Tumor

A 29-year-old man was admitted for erythema, papules and erosions. Erosions and purulent secretions were seen in the circumference of the mouth, eyes, oral mucosa,tongue, and preputium. Conjunctivas were swollen and the urethral orifice was red, both were accompanied by purulent secretions. Multiple vesicles were shown in the penis.The patient was diagnosed with:①Stevens-Johnsonsyndrome;②gonococcal ophthalmoblennorrhea;③nongonococcal urethritis, gonococcal urethritis;④genital herpes;⑤mediastinal tumor.

Projection and Historical Analysis of Hydrological Circulation in Sittaung River Basin, Myanmar

Based on the comparison between several model outputs from CMIP5 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5） and the satellite rainfall mapping data of GSMaP （global satellite mapping of precipitation）, This paper selected MIROC4h as a future projection of rainfall in the Sittaung River basin, Myanmar, with the fine spatial resolution of 0.5°. At first, MIROC4h projection towards 2035 was corrected by using the error trend （GSMaP-MIROC4h） for nine years over-rapping of both outputs from 2006 to 2014. Assuming the seasonal autoregressive processes, future error trend at each grid point was estimated by the time series forecast of SARMAP processes using the nine years training data. Then future projection correction was done by M1ROC4h output plus error trend at each grid point to obtain the corrected MIROC4h precipitation. As a historical analysis, using the corrected precipitation in the Sittaung River basin and observed river discharge at the outlet of the river, the hydrological model （HSPF （Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran）） calibration was carried out with consideration of the water utilization data for darn/reservoir and irrigation. As a projection analysis, future simulation of hourly discharge at the outlet of Sittaung River from 2015 to 2035 was conducted by using the corrected MIROC4h precipitation. The results of projection analysis show that high risks of flood will appear in 2023 and 2028 and the risks of draught will be expected in 2019-2021.

Analysis of the Influence of New Usages on the State of Conservation of Historical Buildings through Microclimate Characterization

Recycling is an alternative for preserving historical heritage buildings. Through such process, buildings are occupied by new usages that assure they are not abandoned. However, conservation issues, like pathological manifestations by filamentous fungi, are common even in buildings receiving new uses. Thus, it is extremely important to know the microclimate behavior of these buildings and analyze if there are usages that favor the appearance of filamentous fungi or not. This study aims to verify if new usages modify the microclimate in historical buildings and if such possible change favors the appearance of pathological manifestations by filamentous fimgi in some specific use. To achieve the results, three buildings that have gone through recycling processes were chosen in the city of Pelotas, in Southernmost Brazil. The city possesses a large number of buildings with historical value and its climate conditions are propitious for appearance of filamentous fungi. For 12 months, microclimate was monitored, the environments modus operandi was characterized and there was a survey on the pathological manifestations by filamentous fungi in the three buildings with two different uses： administration offices and exhibition rooms. Conclusion was that usages that allow natural ventilation and lighting favor conservation, which is what happens in the ones used as administration offices. Besides that, it was noticed that the construction system also influences, since buildings with a high cellar that is being used did not present filamentous fungi, which also shows the influence of ascending humidity on the appearance of such pathological manifestations.

Exhumation history of the Huangshan granite pluton,southern Anhui Province:New insights from fission-track analysis

The dating of the uplift onset of the Huangshan pluton in the southern part of Anhui Province associated with the collision between paleo-Pacific Block and the Eurasian Block is a fundamental issue to better understand the uplift mechanisms and the regional tectonic evolution. Х^2 values of seven zircon fission track （ZFF） samples collected from the south part of the Huangshan pluton were all 〈5%. Based on the grain ages of four typical ZFr samples, three thermal overprints ranging in 113-123, 72-95 and 49-66 Ma were distinguished respectively using the binomial peak-fitting method in accordance with the tectonic thermal events after south China shifted into circum-Pacific tectonic region. Apatite fission track （AFT） study of the Huangshan pluton shows ages lie between 15±3 and 56±6 Ma with all Х^2 values 〉5%, and all are significantly younger than their host rock formation ages, indicating that the samples have experienced post-formation thermal history. Based on the AFT resuits and topography characteristics in the Huangshan pluton, three zones with different denudation intensities caused by the differential uplift of the fault blocks were recognized in this paper, indicating that denudation was driven by the increase in elevation significantly. Modeling of the AFT data shows that the earlier cooling phase took place in the early Cenozoic and involved 3.3, 3.8 and 6.0℃/Ma of cooling rates equivalent to the exhumation rates of 90, 104 and 167 m/Ma in different fault blocks. The last phase of cooling took place from -10 Ma with average cooling rate of -5.6℃/Ma, equivalent to average denudation rates of -156 m/Ma. The fission track results imply that the regional compression field plays an important role for the differential exhumation between individual fault blocks of the Huangshan pluton.

Phylogeny and evolutionary history of the silkworm

The silkworm,Bombyx mori,played an important role in the old Silk Road that connected ancient Asia and Europe.However,to date,there have been few studies of the origins and domestication of this species using molecular methods.In this study,DNA sequences of mitochondrial and nuclear loci were used to infer the phylogeny and evolutionary history of the domesticated silkworm and its relatives.All of the phylogenetic analyses indicated a close relationship between the domesticated silkworm and the Chinese wild silkworm.Domestication was estimated to have occurred about 4100 years ago(ya),and the radiation of the different geographic strains of B.mori about 2000 ya.The Chinese wild silkworm and the Japanese wild silkworm split about 23600 ya.These estimates are in good agreement with the fossil evidence and historical records.In addition,we show that the domesticated silkworm experienced a population expansion around 1000 ya.The divergence times and the population dynamics of silkworms presented in this study will be useful for studies of lepidopteran phylogenetics,in the genetic analysis of domestic animals,and for understanding the spread of human civilizations.

Changes in the Chinese Population's Fertility Intentions:1980-2011

On the basis of the findings of 227 surveys of Chinese fertility intentions over the years 1980-2011, this paper investigates the longitudinal changes in fertility intentions through cross-temporal meta-analysis. It is found that the ideal number of children for the Chinese trended downwards from 1980, but since 2000 the average number has remained basically stable at 1.6 to 1.8. In the 1980s, people＇s fertility levels were higher than their fertility intentions. With economic and educational progress in China, both fertility levels and fertility intentions showed a downward trend, with the former declining faster than the latter. Since 1990, people＇s fertility levels have been lower than their fertility intentions; that is, their actual number of children has been less than their ideal number. This provides an empirical basis for examining the changes in China＇s fertility intentions and fertility levels.

Genetic differentiation in two widespread, open-forest bird species of Southeast Asia （Copsychus saularis and Megalaima haemacephala）： Insights from ecological niche modeling

Ecological niche modeling has emerged as an useful tool in the investigation of the phylogeographic histories of species or communities in a region. The high biodiversity （oftentimes cryptic）, and complex geography and geological history of Southeast Asia particularly call for multipronged approaches in phylogeographic investigations. Past studies have focused on taxa that are associated with lowland rainforests, which is the dominant natural vegetation type. Here, we combine published phylogenetic data, ecological niche modeling and paleo-climate models to reveal potential drivers of divergence in two open-forest bird species, the oriental magpie-robin Copsychus saularis and Coppersmith barbet Megalaima haemacephala. In spite of broad overlap in current distributions, there are subtle differences in their climatic niches, which result in different responses to past climatic changes. For C saularis, both Last Glacial Maximum climate models indicated that the entire Sundaland was climati- cally suitable, while phylogenetic analyses found divergent eastern and western Sundaland lineages. We thus postulate that this genetic divergence was a result of past separations of coastal habitats into eastern and western portions due to the emergence of Sunda shelf as sea-level fell. The current separation of morphological subspecies in Borneo is maintained by low climatic suitability （high annual rainfall） in certain regions. The extirpation of M. haemacephala from Borneo and southern Malay Peninsula might have been driven by unsuitable conditions （high temperature seasonality） in central Sundaland and/or the lack of open woodlands. Our study shows that ecological niche modeling adds a powerful dimension to our attempt to understand lineage evolution in space [Current Zoology 61 （5）： 922-934, 2015].

Independent risk factors for disease recurrence after surgery in patients with hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma≤3 cm in diameter

Background:Post-operative recurrence rates are high for hepatitis B virus(HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).This study aimed to explore the factors associated with post-operative 1-year recurrence rate in patients with HBV-related HCC who had a single small primary tumor(3 cmin diameter).Methods:This was a retrospective study of 203(training cohort)and 64(validation cohort)patients newly diagnosed with HBV-related HCC who had a single small primary tumor.The first year of post-operative follow-up was examined.Factors potentially associated with HCC recurrence were identified using Cox regression analyses.A model was constructed based on the factors identified and the prognostic value of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis and calculation of the area under the ROC curve(AUC).Results:A history of alcoholismand serum levels of a-fetoprotein,total protein and c-glutamyl transpeptidase(GGT)were independently associated with 1-year recurrence rate after surgery.A predictive model based on these four factors had an AUC of 0.711(95%confidence interval,0.643–0.772)in the training cohort and 0.727(95%confidence interval,0.601–0.831)in the validation cohort.The 1-year recurrence rate was significantly lower in the low-risk group than in the high-risk group in both the training cohort(17.0%vs.49.5%,P<0.001)and the validation cohort(43.2%vs.74.1%,P=0.031).Conclusion:A history of alcoholism and serum levels of a-fetoprotein,total protein and c-glutamyl transpeptidase were independently associated with post-operative 1-year recurrence rate in patients with HBV-related HCC who had a single small primary tumor(3 cmin diameter).

Climate change and plague history in Europe

Previous research that reported the linkage between climate change and plague activity primarily refers to the immediate effect of short-term climatic variation. Yet, decades of discussion about the climate-plague association cannot determine the precise role of climate in shaping plague dynamics. One reason for this discrepancy originates from the narrow selection of spatio-temporal settings for comprehensive analysis of the correlation, leading to a limited consideration of the complexity of possible dynamics.By analyzing a 414-year long record of plague outbreak in pre-industrial Europe and the corresponding climatic data in multi-scale,we find little evidence to support climate-plague correlation in(1) both climatic variations and large-scale climatic phenomena,(2)both country scale and continental scale,(3) annual to inter-annual scale, and(4) both linear and non-linear analytic approaches. The null-result should not be viewed as a general rejection of other recent findings related to climate-plague association; nevertheless,it suggests that a wider consideration of scales, sensitivity checks and consideration of contexts should be included in explaining and predicting plague transmission under contemporary global climate conditions.