数据驱动的“气云”区振幅补偿方法

在"气云"区由于地震波能量被吸收造成地震资料品质极差,因此在常规条件下很难准确地估计"气云"区地下介质的实际地层品质因子。为此,提出了一种基于数据驱动的"气云"区地震补偿方法,通过对不同时间、不同频率、不同炮点和不同检波点的反射波振幅进行统计,在反射波振幅横向连续的假设条件下,可以求得对应的补偿因子,从而避免了估计地下介质实际品质因子的复杂步骤。实际"气云"区地震资料处理结果表明,该方法具有良好的振幅补偿效果。

方差技术在“气云区”深度预测中的应用探讨

由于"气云区"逸散气体分布的不均衡,造成了平面范围内地震资料受浅层气影响的程度存在很大差异,使得"气云区"的时间构造图不能精确地转换为深度构造图,进而增大了构造误差带来的油气藏开发风险。通过把受浅层气影响程度与地震方差数据体的平面属性结合起来,运用实际油田资料建立了目的层之上方差体振幅之和属性与"气云区"浅层气的总体影响程度之间的数学关系式。渤中29-4油气田应用效果表明,运用该数学关系式可以得到较为准确的砂体深度构造图,为油气田开发提供可信的构造信息,从而成功规避因构造误差而带来的开发风险。

Converted-wave diodic moveout and application in the land gas cloud area

PS converted-waves （C-waves） have been commonly used to image through gas clouds but the C-wave imaging may also be degraded by the diodic effect introduced by the gas cloud. It may be compensated for using a velocity perturbation method which decouples the diodic moveout into two parts： the base velocity and the velocity perturbation. Gas clouds are widely distributed in the Sanhu area in the Qaidam basin of northwest China which is rich in natural gas. A land 2D3C seismic dataset is analyzed from the Sanhu area and significant diodic effects are observed in the data which harm the C-wave imaging. The diodic correction is applied to this data and the resultant C-wave imaging and the details of the reservoir structure are significantly improved. The diodic moveout plays an important role in working out the residu~ shear wave statics and the association of diodie correction and shear wave residual statics computation is a key step of C-wave high fidelity imaging in the gas cloud area. Finally, the new process workflow with diodic moveout is given.

Influence of Vapor Cloud Shape on Temperature Field of Unconfined Vapor Cloud Explosion

In order to analyze the influence of vapor cloud shape on temperature field effect of unconfined vapor cloud explosion(UVCE)and obtain creditable prediction method of explosion temperature effect,the transient temperature fields of cylindrical and hemispherical UVCEs with same methane concentration and mass were numerically studied by computational fluid dynamics(CFD)technology.According to numerical simulation results, the concepts of UVCE’s temperature-near-field and temperature-far-field were proposed,the corresponding ranges were given,and the temperature attenuation laws and differences in corresponding regions with different vapor cloud shapes were presented.Through comparing with Baker fireball model,the accuracy and visualizability in acquisition of entire temperature effect based on numerical simulation were further validated.The functional relations among maximum temperature,horizontal distance,initial temperature and vapor cloud mass in temperature-near-field and temperature-far-field were deduced by means of data fitting,respectively.These conclusions provided quantitative basis for forecast and protection of UVCE disaster.

Variations in the Lower Level of the PBL Associated with the Yellow Sea Fog-New Observations by L-Band Radar

The Chinese east coastal areas and marginal seas are foggy regions. The development of effective forecasting methods rests upon a comprehensive knowledge of the fog phenomena. This study provides new observations associated with the sea togs over the northwestern Yellow Sea by means of L-band radar soundings with a high vertical resolution of 30m. The monthly tem- perature lapse rate, the Richardson Nulnbers, and the humidity show obvious seasonal variations in the lower level of the planetary boundary layer （PBL） that are related to the onset, peak and end of the Yellow Sea fog season. The typical pattern of stratification for the sea fog season in the northwestern Yellow Sea is that a stable layer of about 400 m thick caps a 150 m conditionally unstable layer Besides, the differences between togs and stratus clouds in terms of humidity, turbulence and temperature are analyzed, which is of significance for sea fog forecast and detection by satellites. The thickness of the sea fogs varies in different stages of the fog season, and is associated with the temperature inversion. The numerical simulation proves that the seasonal variations obtained by the radar well represent the situations over the Yellow Sea.

ENSEMBLE PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS OF TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES BY USING MULTIPLE CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES

Ensemble prediction experiments of the tracks of eight tropical cyclones occurring between 2004-2006 over the western Pacific have been performed by using MM5 with five cumulus parameterization schemes. The results show that the predictions of the tracks of the tropical cyclones are sensitive to the selection of cumulus parameterization schemes. Each scheme has its own advantage and disadvantage, and the predications without cumulus parameterization schemes are not the worst, sometimes even better than the others. And all of the three ensemble methods improve the predictions of the tracks significantly, among which the ensemble method without parameterization schemes, the Grell, Betts-Miller and Kain-Fritsch schemes are the best.

RELATIVE BRIGHTNESS INDEX AND IT'S CLIMATIC SIGNIFICANCE FROM LACUSTRINE SEDIM ENT OF NAPAHAI LAKE,NORTHWESTERN YUNNAN PLATEAU,CHINA

Information on the palaeoenvironm ent from Late Pleistocene to Holocen e in northwestern Yannan Plateau has been deduced from a study of a 28.81m-long core taken from Napahai Lake.The results from Relative Brightness In-dex(RBI )as well as those from the lithological analyses of bulk sediments,total organic carbon and granulometric analy-ses have been used to reconstruct the environmental and climatic evoluti on of the area.The ages were provided by three 14 C datings.The record suggested a climate fluctuation between warm-dry a nd cool-wet from ca.57to 32ka B.P.,which led a shallowing and swamping of the l ake.The water level again increased quickly at ca.32ka B.P.,reached it’ s peak during LGM(Last Glacial Maximum,ca.18-20ka B.P.)and remained relative high until ca.15ka B.P.The high wa-ter level at LGM is attributed to cold-wet conditions.The area experienced an abrupt and unstable climatic ch anges dur-ing the transition period from15to 10ka B.P.with a dominated littoral en vironment.Awarm-dry climate led to the contrac-tion of the lake during the Holocene a nd reed-swamps became dominant.After a minor wet-cool pulse during the L ate Holocene,the modern climate became to be established.

A Numerical Study of Vortex and Precipitating Cloud Merging in Middle Latitudes

We mainly focus on the study of precipitating cloud merging associated with vortex merging. The vortex and precipitating cloud merging are simulated by the cloud resolving model from 0000 21 to 1800 23 July 2003. The results show that the model well simulates vortex circulation associated with precipitating clouds. It is also proven that the vortex merging follows the precipitating cloud merging although vortices show the spatial and temporal differences. The convection vorticity vector is introduced to describe the merging processes. Two merging cases are identified during the 42-h simulation and are studied.

Comparisons of cloud detection among four satellite sensors on severe haze days in eastern China

Satellite remote sensing is very important to obtain a variety of cloud properties. However, the data quality from satellites varies with different satellite characteristics. From December 2015 to January 2016, ground-based air quality index （AQI） data showed severe haze events occurred successively in eastern China, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. During those days, a red alert （the most serious level）, orange alert （the second-highest level）, and yellow alert （the third-highest level） for haze, were issued in Beijing. Cloud detection from four sensors onboard the ＇A-Train＇satellite constellation were compared for two severe haze episodes, on 21 and 30 December 2015 respectively. Results showed that the MODIS sensor onboard the Aqua satellite misclassified aerosol as cloud, while the other three sensors-AIRS onboard Aqua, the cloud profiling radar onboard CloudSat, and CALIOP onboard CALIPSO-did not observe cloud over the same location. Through the high-AQI haze region in the CALIPSO and CloudSat orbit track, MODIS marked cloud close to the surface, while the MODIS true-color image and CALIOP observed an aerosol layer over the same location, suggesting MODIS falsely observed cloud there. Over the haze region in eastern China, MODIS observed 36% on average greater cloud fraction than AIRS, suggesting haze pollution induces a greater MODIS cloud amount.

An Observational Study of Typhoon Imbudo in 2003

Typhoon Imbudo was a super-typhoon over the northwestern Pacific in 2003. It caused tremendous damage when it made landfalls in the Philippines and China. This paper documents observational analyses of Typhoon Imbudo during its landfall in China. All available observations are used to study its motion, intensity changes, convection, structure and precipitation. Best-track data indicate that Imbudo moved west-northwestward until 1800 UTC 23 July and then turned northwestward. FNL (final) analysis data show that the motion of Imbudo is dominated by changes of the subtropical high. At Imbudo's mature stage, the minimum sea level pressure dropped to 910 hPa and the maximum sustained winds were as high as 67 m s 1, which is the intensity of a super-typhoon. The surface wind field exhibited asymmetric characteristics. Polar-orbiting satellite imagery also manifested convective asymmetry before Imbudo made landfall in China. Analyzed the vertical wind shear, it is shown that the convection has a downshear-left pattern. All kinds of precipitation data were used to identify the asymmetric characteristic of the rainfall associated with the Imbudo. The maximum rainfalls were located in the southern boundary area between Guangxi and Guangdong. However, the lack of in situ observations limited further analyses of this typhoon.

Focused fluid flow in the Baiyun Sag, northern South China Sea: implications for the source of gas in hydrate reservoirs

The origin and migration of natural gas and the accumulation of gas hydrates within the Pearl River Mouth Basin of the northern South China Sea are poorly understood. Based on high-resolution 2D/3D seismic data, three environments of focused fluid flow： gas chimneys, mud diapirs and active faults have been identified. Widespread gas chimneys that act as important conduits for fluid flow are located below bottom simulating reflections and above basal uplifts. The occurrence and evolution of gas chimneys can be divided into a violent eruptive stage and a quiet seepage stage. For most gas chimneys, the strong eruptions are deduced to have happened during the Dongsha Movement in the latest Miocene, which are observed below Pliocene strata and few active faults develop above the top of the Miocene. The formation pressures of the Baiyun Sag currently are considered to be normal, based on these terms： 1） Borehole pressure tests with pressure coefficients of 1.043-l.047; 2） The distribution of gas chimneys is limited to strata older than the Pliocene; 3） Disseminated methane hydrates, rather than fractured hydrates, are found in the hydrate samples; 4） The gas hydrate is mainly charged with biogenic gas rather than thermogenic gas based on the chemical tests from gas hydrates cores. However, periods of quiet focused fluid flow also enable the establishment of good conduits for the migration of abundant biogenic gas and lesser volumes ofthermogenic gas. A geological model goveming fluid flow has been proposed to interpret the release of overpressure, the migration of fluids and the formation of gas hydrates, in an integrated manner. This model suggests that gas chimneys positioned above basal uplifts were caused by the Dongsha Movement at about 5.5 Ma. Biogenic gas occupies the strata above the base of the middle Miocene and migrates slowly into the gas chimney columns. Some of the biogenic gas and small volumes ofthermogenic gas eventually contribute to the formation of the gas hydrates.

Energy Consumption in Comminution of Mica with Cavitation Abrasive Water Jet

We have studied the efficiency of energy consumption in the comminution of mica powder with cavitation abrasive water jet technology. The energy required to create new surfaces in the comminution of mica powder with cavitation abrasive water jet was calculated,in order to estimate its efficiency of energy consumption. The particle size distribution and the specific surface area were measured by applying a JEM-200CX transmission electron microscope and an Autosorb-1 automatic surface area analyzer. The study results show that the efficiency of energy consumed in creating new surface areas is as high as 2.92%,or 4.94% with the aid of cavitation in the comminution of mica powder. This efficiency will decrease with an increase in the number of comminutions. After three comminutions,the efficien-cies will become 1.91% and 2.29% for comminution without cavitation and with cavitation,respectively. The abrasive water jet technology is an effective way for comminution of mica powder.

Inverse gaussian beam stack imaging in 3D crosswell seismic exploration of deviated wells and Its application

In crosswell seismic exploration,the imaging section produced by migration based on a wave equation has a serious arc phenomenon at its edge and a small effective range because of geometrical restrictions.Another imaging section produced by the VSP-CDP stack imaging method employed with ray-tracing theory is amplitude-preserved.However,imaging 3D complex lithological structures accurately with this method is difficult.Therefore,this study proposes inverse Gaussian beam stack imaging in the 3D crosswell seismic exploration of deviated wells on the basis of Gaussian beam ray-tracing theory.By employing Gaussian beam ray-tracing theory in 3D crosswell seismic exploration,we analyzed the energy relationship between seismic wave fields and their effective rays.In imaging,the single-channel seismic wave fi eld data in the common shot point gather are converted into multiple effective wave fields in the common reflection point gather by the inverse Gaussian beam.The process produces a large fold number of intensive reflection points.Selected from the horizontal and vertical directions of the 2D measuring line,the wave fi elds of the eff ective reflection points in the same stack bin are projected onto the 2D measuring line,chosen according to the distribution characteristics of the reflection points,and stacked into an imaging section.The method is applied to X oilfi eld to identify the internal structure of the off shore gas cloud area.The results provided positive support for the inverse Gaussian beam stack imaging of 3D complex lithological structures and proved that technology is a powerful imaging tool for 3D crosswell seismic data processing.

Effects of climate change on potential habitats of the cold temperate coniferous forest in Yunnan province, southwestern China

We built a classification tree （CT） model to estimate climatic factors controlling the cold temperate coniferous forest （CTCF） distributions in Yunnan province and to predict its potential habitats under the current and future climates, using seven climate change scenarios, projected over the years of 2070-2099. The accurate CT model on CTCFs showed that minimum temperature of coldest month （TMW） was the overwhelmingly potent factor among the six climate variables. The areas of TMW〈-4.05 were suitable habitats of CTCF, and the areas of -1.35 〈 TMW were non-habitats, where temperate conifer and broad-leaved mixed forests （TCBLFs） were distribute in lower elevation, bordering on the CTCF. Dominant species of Abies, Picea, and Larix in the CTCFs, are more tolerant to winter coldness than Tsuga and broad-leaved trees including deciduous broad-leaved Acer and Betula, evergreen broad- leaved Cyclobalanopsis and Lithocarpus in TCBLFs. Winter coldness may actually limit the cool-side distributions of TCBLFs in the areas between -1.35℃ and -4.05℃, and the warm-side distributions of CTCFs may be controlled by competition to the species of TCBLFs. Under future climate scenarios, the vulnerable area, where current potential （suitable ＋ marginal） habitats （80,749 km^2） shift to non-habitats, was predicted to decrease to 55.91% （45,053 km^2） of the current area. Inferring from the current vegetation distribution pattern, TCBLFs will replace declining CTCFs. Vulnerable areas predicted by models are important in determining priority of ecosystem conservation.

Variability and Long-Term Trend of Total Cloud Cover in China Derived from ISCCP, ERA-40, CRU3, and Ground Station Datasets

Total Cloud Cover （TCC） over China deter- mined from four climate datasets including the Interna- tional Satellite Cloud Climatology Project （ISCCP）, the 40-year Re-Analysis Project of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ERA-40）, Climate Research Unit Time Series 3.0 （CRU3）, and ground sta- tion datasets are used to show spatial and temporal varia- tion of TCC and their differences. It is demonstrated that the four datasets show similar spatial pattern and seasonal variation. The maximum value is derived from ISCCE TCC value in North China derived from ERA-40 is 50% larger than that from the station dataset; however, the value is 50% less than that in South China. The annual TCC of ISCCP, ERA-40, and ground station datasets shows a decreasing trend during 1984-2002; however, an increasing trend is derived from CRU3. The results of this study imply remarkable differences of TCC derived from surface and satellite observations as well as model simu- lations. The potential effects of these differences on cloud climatology and associated climatic issues should be carefully considered.

A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF INTERACTIONS BETWEEN MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS IN TYPHOONS AND MESOSCALE HEAVY RAINS

In this paper, time and space distribution regularity of meso-scale heavy rains in five selected typhoons which landed at Fujian from 1996 to 1998 has been analyzed. Besides, with hourly digitized satellite infrared imagery, the features of the mesoscale are revealed for the genesis and evolution of mesoscale convective systems in typhoons. It indicates that the intensity of mesoscale storms is closely connected with the temperature and the area of the coldest cloud cluster. The heavy rainfall usually emerges on the eastern side of the mesoscale convective cloud clusters, where the cloud mass is developing and with a dense gradient and big curvature of isoline of the cloud top temperature.

Wet Canopy Evaporation Rate of Three Stands in Western Sichuan, China

The wet canopy evaporation rate (Er) wascalculated by Penman-Monteith combination model based on three assumptions and with meteorological variables 2 m above the canopy inthree stands, dominated by spruce (SF), fir (FF) and birch (BF) trees, respectively[(,)( )]in the subalpineforests in western Sichuan, China over a growingseason. The total amount of the E was 44.5 mm forSF, 88.5 mm for FF and 57.8 mm for BF, accounting for 9.2%, 16.6% and 10.2% of the gross rainfall,respectively, in the measuring period. There was the highest average monthly Er and percentage of E togross rainfall for FF compared with SF and BF.Mean Er was 0.097 mm h-1 (ranging from 0.028 to0.487 mm h-1), 0.242 mm h-1 (from 0.068 to 0.711 mm h-1) and 0.149 mm h-1 (from 0.060 to 0.576 mm h-1for SF, FF and BF, respectively. The highest average monthly Er occurred in June was 0.120 mm h-1 forSF, 0.317 mm h-1 for FF and 0.169 mm h-1 for BF, and the lowest value in October was 0.083 mm h-1 for SF, 0.187 mm h-1 for FF and 0.101 mm h-1 for BF,respectively. The averages of Er from 8:00 to 16:00were significantly higher than those from 0:00 to8:00 and from 16:00 to 0:00 for the three stands. The marked daily and monthly differences of Er were contributable to the variations of solar radiation, air temperature and relative humidity above thecanopy.

Changes of Dry-wet Climate in the Dry Season in Yunnan(1961-2007)

Factor analysis was used to investigate the changes of dry-wet climate in the dry season in Yunnan during 1961-2007 based on observed data from 15 stations.Three common factors were extracted from the 9 climatic factors.The results showed that the dry-wet climate has evidently changed since the early 1960s.The general trends in the changes of drywet climate were described as slight decrease in humidity and gradual enhancement in drought intensity.The climate during 1960s-1980s was under weak-medium drought.But since early 1990s,dry conditions have markedly strengthened and continued due to uneven temporal distribution of rainfall and climate warming.

Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Front on Stratus-Sea Fog over the Yellow and East China Seas-A Case Study with Implications for Climatology

A stratus-sea fog event that occurred over the Yellow and East China Seas on 3 June 2011 is investigated using observations and a numerical model, with a focus on the effects of background circulation and Sea Surface Temperature Front （SSTF） on the transition of stratus into sea fog. Southerly winds of a synoptic high-pressure circulation transport water vapor to the Yellow Sea, creating conditions favorable for sea fog/stratus formation. The subsidence from the high-pressure contributes to the temperature inversion at the top of the stratus. The SSTF forces a secondary circulation within the ABL （Atmospheric Boundary Layer）, the sinking branch of which on the cold flank of SSTF helps lower the stratus layer fiLrther to reach the sea surface. The cooling effect over the cold sea surface counteracts the adiabatic warming induced by subsidence. The secondary circulation becomes weak and the fog patches are shrtmk heavily with the smoothed SSTE A conceptual model is proposed for the transition of stratus into sea fog over the Yellow and East China Seas. Finally, the analyses suggest that sea fog frequency will probably decrease due to the weakened SSTF and the reduced subsidence of secondary circulation under global wanning.

IMPACTS OF THE ONSET OF THE SOUTHEAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ON THE BEGINNING OF THE RAINY SEASON IN YUNNAN

Summer monsoon in Southeast Asia can cause large-scale precipitation in the region in early summer, which is featured by prevailing low-level southwesterly from the Bay of Bengal to South China Sea （SCS）. It has characteristics of its own as well as those of Asian monsoons in general. As found in studies over recent years on East Asian monsoons, the earliest onset of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon occurs in early summer over the SCS, among all members of the monsoon system. It then advances westward to India and northward to eastern China, Japan and Korean Peninsula. As pointed out by Lau and Yang121, the end of April is the earliest time when the Asian monsoon sets up at the southern tip of Indo-china Peninsula. Being the earliest signal for the whole summer monsoon system in Asia, it may be of some predictive value for the establishment of Asian summer monsoon （ASM）.