Measurement assessment of forest benefit in reducing flood disaster

Based on the analysis of forest inner mechanism, forest benefit in re ducing flood disaster is defined. Through the characteristic analysis of forest benefit in reducing flood disaster, it is suggested that it is impossible to ado pt the microanalysis method for studying the forest benefit in reducing flood, t he macro analysis is the only method to be adopted. With the special case of dis aster flooding of Changjiang River happened in 1998, the forest benefit in reduc ing flood disaster was scientifically assessed. The estimated results of forest benefit in reducing flood shows that forest vegetation establishment is the radi cal way to control flood, but it only equals to 5 percent of the total benefits of water conservancy facilities.

Study on the Relationship among Forest Fire,Temperature and Precipitation and Its Spatial-temporal Variability in China

[Objective] The aim was to discuss the relationship between forest fire and meterological elements （precipitation and temprature） in each region of China.[Method] Firstly,the average precipitation and temperature in forest area of each province in fire season were obtained based on meterological data,forest distribution data,seasonal and monthly data of forest fire in China.Secondly,the relationship among forest fire area,precipitation and temperature was discussed through temporal and correlation analysis.[Result] The changes of precipitation and temperature with time could reflect the annual variation of fire area well.Forest fire area went up with the decrease of precipitation and increase of temprature,and visa versa.Meanwhile,there existed diffirences in the relationship in various regions over time.Correlation analyses revealed that there was positive correlation between forest fire area and temperature,especailly Northwest China （R=0.367,P〈0.01）,Southwest China （R=0.327,P〈0.05）,South China （R=0.33,P〈0.05）,East China （R=0.516,P〈0.01） and Xinjiang （R=0.447,P〈0.05） with obviously positive correlation.At the same time,the correlation between forest fire area and precipitation was significantly positive in Northwest China （R=0.482,P〈0.01）,while it was significantly negaive in South China （R=-0.323,P=0.03）,but there was no significant correlation in other regions.[Conclusion] Relationships between forest fire and meteorological elements （precipitation and temprature） revealed in the study would be useful for fire provention and early warning in China.

Quantitative Study on the Relationship between Water Disaster and Grain Production of Hubei Province in the 1990s

The research explored variation coefficient of grains and analyzed the fluctuations of grains in Hubei in the 1990s in order to investigate quantitative cor- relation between grain production and water-related disaster. The conclusion is that the effective irrigated area and growing structure are major factors influencing grain production capacity, whose grey relational degrees were 0.91 and 0.85 with grain production, respectively. These indicated that water-related disasters have significant effects on grain yield in Hubei Province.

人大代表叫停三门峡

认为渭河水灾与三门峡水库有关，15名代表向陕西省人大提交议案。

Design and Realization of Cold Disaster Early Warning System for Subtropics Aquaculture

By analyzing the subtropics aquaculture present situation,the necessity of the construction of cold disaster early warning system for subtropics aquaculture,the research goal and the duty were expounded. The system structure and the frame were introduced in detail. Several key questions and their solutions of the cold disaster early warning system for subtropics aquaculture were put forward.

Prediction of Debris-flow Danger Area by Combining Hydrological and Inundation Simulation Methods

Debris flows have caused serious human casualties and economic losses in the regions strongly affected by the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of 2oo8. Debris flow mitigation and risk assessment is a key issue for reconstruction. The existing methods of inundation simulation are based on historical disasters and have no power of prediction. The rain- flood method can not yield detailed flow hydrograph and does not meet the need of inundation simulation. In this paper, the process of water flow was studied by using the Arc-SCS model combined with hydraulic method, and then the debris flow runoff process was calculated using the empirical formula combining the result from Arc-SCS. The peak discharge and runoff duration served as input of inundation simulation. Then, the dangerous area is predicted using kinematic wave method and Manning equation. Taking the debris flow in Huashiban gully in Beichuan County, Sichuan Province, China on 24 Sep. 2oo8 as example, the peak discharge of water flow and debris flow were calculated as 35.52 m3·s-1 and 215.66 m3·s-, with error of 4.15% compared to the measured values. The simulated area of debris-flow deposition was 161,500 m2, vs. the measured area of 144,097 m2, in error of 81.75%. The simulated maximum depth was 12.3 m, consistent with the real maximum depth between lO and 15 m according to the field survey. The minor error is mainly due to the flow impact on buildings and variations in cross-section configuration. The present methodology can be applied to predict debrisflow magnitude and evaluate its risk in other watersheds inthe earthquake area.

Research on Full Space Transient Electro-magnetism Technique for Detecting Aqueous Structures in Coal Mines

Based on the transmitting theory of "smoke ring effect", the transient electromagnetism technique was used in coal mines to detect abnormal areas of aquiferous structures in both roofs and floors of coal seams and in front of excavated roadways. Survey devices, working methods and techniques as well as data processing and interpretation are discussed systematically. In addition, the direction of mini-wireframe emission electromagnetic wave of the full space transient electromagnetism technique was verified by an underground borehole for water detection and drainage. The result indicates that this technique can detect both horizontal and vertical development rules of abnormal water bodies to a certain depth below the floor of coal seams and can also detect the abnormal, low resistance water bodies within a certain distance of roofs. Furthermore, it can detect such abnormal bodies in ahead of the excavated roadway front. Limited by the underground environment, the full space transient electromagnetism technique can detect to a depth of only 120 m or so.

Testing with high density resistivity method in prevention and cure for mine water disaster and its applied effect

The detecting examples using the high density resistivity method, about the evaluation of containing water characteristic from the floor rock and the height of overburden failure, were given. It expresses that the high density resistivity method has good effect with strong maneuverability and continuous observing section during the prevention and cure for mine water disaster. At the same time, the article pointed out that the study of space data inversion and dynamic watching technology about the high density resistivity method must be enhanced in the future because of special condition of data collecting in mine.

Application of SVM in Analyzing the Headstream of Gushing Water in Coal Mine

To recognize the presence of the headstream of gushing water in coal mines, the SVM (Support Vector Ma- chine) was proposed to analyze the gushing water based on hydrogeochemical methods. First, the SVM model for head- stream analysis was trained on the water sample of available headstreams, and then we used this to predict the unknown samples, which were validated in practice by comparing the predicted results with the actual results. The experimental results show that the SVM is a feasible method to differentiate between two headstreams and the H-SVMs (Hierachical SVMs) is a preferable way to deal with the problem of multi-headstreams. Compared with other methods, the SVM is based on a strict mathematical theory with a simple structure and good generalization properties. As well, the support vector W in the decision function can describe the weights of the recognition factors of water samples, which is very important for the analysis of headstreams of gushing water in coal mines.

MECHANISM ON PROGRESSIVE INTRUSION OF PRESSURE WATER UNDER COAL SEAMS INTO PROTECTIVE AQUICLUDE AND ITS APPLICATION IN PREDICTION OF WATER INRUSH

This article proposes a water inrush mechanism of progressive intrusion of pressure water up into the coal floor aquiclude according to injection tests and observations. A numerical model and a criterion of water inrush are established based on the mechanism. The theory is succesSfully used in predictions of water inrush.

Risk assessment of water inrush in tunnels based on attribute interval recognition theory

Water inrush is one of the most serious geological hazards in underground engineering construction.In order to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of water inrush,a new attribute interval recognition theory and method is proposed to systematically evaluate the risk of water inrush in karst tunnels.Its innovation mainly includes that the value of evaluation index is an interval rather than a certain value;the single-index attribute evaluation model is improved non-linearly based on the idea of normal distribution;the synthetic attribute interval analysis method based on improved intuitionistic fuzzy theory is proposed.The TFN-AHP method is proposed to analyze the weight of evaluation index.By analyzing geological factors and engineering factors in tunnel zone,a multi-grade hierarchical index system for tunnel water inrush risk assessment is established.The proposed method is applied to ventilation incline of Xiakou tunnel,and its rationality and practicability is verified by comparison with field situation and evaluation results of other methods.In addition,the results evaluated by this method,which considers that water inrush is a complex non-linear system and the geological conditions have spatial variability,are more accurate and reliable.And it has good applicability in solving the problem of certain and uncertain problem.

Mechanism of water-inrush from fault induced by mining near the working face

Adopted the fractal tree-like failure model, and established the renormalization group transform function of fractured fault, and investigated the mechanism of water-inrush from fault, and found out the critical probability of water-inrush from fault caused by fault fracture. The results indicate： when the failure rate P is less than the critical failure rate Pc=0.206 3, the failure of the system is just partial. When P is more than the critical failure rate Pc=0.206 3, the random distributed crannies concentrate to certain domain of attraction （such as the maximum shear stress face in the fault） gradually. The process will continue until the crannies run-through, forming conductivity channel, and cause water-inrush from fault.

A High Precision Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Flood Disaster Loss Based on Improved Genetic Programming

Precise comprehensive evaluation of flood disaster loss is significant for the prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Here, one of the difficulties involved is how to establish a model capable of describing the complex relation between the input and output data of the system of flood disaster loss. Genetic programming (GP) solves problems by using ideas from genetic algorithm and generates computer programs automatically. In this study a new method named the evaluation of the grade of flood disaster loss (EGFD) on the basis of improved genetic programming (IGP) is presented (IGP-EGFD). The flood disaster area and the direct economic loss are taken as the evaluation indexes of flood disaster loss. Obviously that the larger the evaluation index value, the larger the corresponding value of the grade of flood disaster loss is. Consequently the IGP code is designed to make the value of the grade of flood disaster be an increasing function of the index value. The result of the application of the IGP-EGFD model to Henan Province shows that a good function expression can be obtained within a bigger searched function space; and the model is of high precision and considerable practical significance. Thus, IGP-EGFD can be widely used in automatic modeling and other evaluation systems.

Change of Flood Patterns in China under the Influences of Climate Change and Human Activities

Based on the flood affected area （FA） data of the provinces in China from 1950 to 2005, the article discusses the change of the flood patterns in China, and investigates its relationship with climate change and human activities. The flood center shifted from North China and the Yangtze-Huaihe basin in the 1950s towards the south, north and west of China, and located in the south of the Yangtze River and South China after the 1990s. The FA in the western provinces was continuously on the rise since the 1950s. There are two characteristics for the future flood pattem in China. The pattern of ＂flood in the south and drought in the north＂ depends on the north-south shift of the maximum rainfall region in eastern China. The flood intensification to the west of Hu Huanyong＇s line mainly results from the increase of rainfall, extreme precipitation and the melting of glaciers under the background of human activity magnification.

Water vapor transport over China and its relationship with drought and flood in Yangtze River Basin

The characteristics of water vapor transport(WVT) over China and its relationship with precipitation anomalies in the Yangtze River Basin(YRB) are analyzed by using the upper-air station data in China and ECMWF reanalysis data in summer from 1981 to 2002.The results indicate that the first mode of the vertically integrated WVT is significant whose spatial distribution presents water vapor convergence or divergence in the YRB.When the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) is strong and shifts southward and westward, the Indian Monsoon Low Pressure(IMLP) is weak, and the northern part of China stands behind the middle and high latitude trough, a large amount of water vapor from the Bay of Bengal(BOB), the South China Sea(SCS) and the western Pacific forms a strong and steady southwest WVT band and meets the strong cold water vapor from northern China in the YRB, thus it is likely to cause flood in the YRB.When WPSH is weak and shifts northward and eastward, IMLP is strong, and there is nearly straight west wind over the middle and high latitude, it is unfavorable for oceanic vapor extending to China and no steady and strong southwest WVT exists in the region south of the YRB.Meanwhile, the cold air from northern China is weak and can hardly be transported to the YRB.This brings on no obvious water vapor convergence, and then less precipitation in the YRB.

Projecting Spatial Patterns of Flood Hazard: Recent Climate and Future Changes over Yangtze River Basin

Projection of hazard changes in climate extremes is critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Using simulations of providing regional climates for impacts studies, five indicators (rainstorm days, maximum 3-day precipitation, elevation, gradient and distance from river or lake) were selected to project the spatial patterns of flood hazard over Yangtze River Basin for the baseline period (1961– 1990) and future (2011–2100) under SRES B2 scenario. The results showed the mean annual rainstorm days over the basin by the near-term, mid-term and long-term would increase from 3.9 days to 4.7, 4.9 and 5.1 days, and the mean annual maximum 3-day precipitation from 122 mm to 143, 146 and 149 mm, respectively. The flood hazard of the basin would become more severe, especially in the middle and lower reaches. Flood hazard grade 5 by the nearterm, mid-term and long-term would extend from 10.99% to 25.46, 28.14 and 29.75%, respectively.

Spatial Analysis of Flood Vulnerability Levels in Port Harcourt Metropolis Using GIS

The study identified spatial variations in flood vulnerability levels in Port Harcourt metropolis with the use of GIS （geographic information systems）. This study considered four factors and these included landuse types, drainage, residential densities and elevation. The elevation data and drainage data were derived from the topographical map of scale 1：35,000, while the land use types were derived from the imagery of Port Harcourt metropolis downloaded from Google Earth, 2010 version. Both the topographical map and imagery were geo-referenced to geographic coordinates and geographic features were digitized in form of shapefiles using both ArcView GIS 3.3 and ArcGIS 9.2 versions. AHP （analytical hierarchical process） was adopted in this study whereby many flood factors were ranked and overlaid for decision making. The contour data was used to generate the DEM （digital elevation model） through the process called kriging in ArcGIS 9.2. Based on the ranking index, factors considered were reclassified to three levels of vulnerability namely highly vulnerable, moderately vulnerable and lowly vulnerable through ranking method and these reclassified factors were then overlaid using an addition operator. The analysis shows that communities like Eagle Island, Ojimbo, Kidney Island were highly vulnerable to flood while communities like Choba, Ogbogoro, Rumualogu were moderately vulnerable. Communities like Rumuigbo, Rumuodomaya etc. were lowly vulnerable to flood. The highly vulnerable places covered 98.18 km2, moderately vulnerable was 220.46 km2 and lowly vulnerable areas covered 330.77 km2.

Flood Vulnerability Assessment： A Multiscale, Multitemporal and Multidisciplinary Approach

Recent catastrophic events related to floods in Colombia reveal again the situation of disaster as a development issue not solved in the country. It is necessary to analyze in more detail the areas under threat and their respective vulnerability to the different mechanisms can generate flooding events and make adjustments in the assessment of disaster risks for the appropriate decision-making at local, regional and national levels. This paper presents a research project in its first phase, whose main objective is to develop a methodology for vulnerability assessment from a multiscale, multitemporal and multidisciplinary perspectives, combining the use of indicators and a spatial information system to analyze exposure and vulnerability at regional and local level in specific areas. This methodological tool will also enable local and regional authorities to identify the most appropriate strategies to reduce vulnerability and adaptation options, and make better decisions in assessing disaster risk. The information generated in this study will contribute to public policy action structured to correct short- and medium-term situations of actual or potential vulnerability, which can also be used in other activities of territorial and environmental planning, developing technology transfer activities and training associated with the research project in the service of the authorities and communities. Results obtained of the vulnerability analysis for a Colombian study area will relate to the hazards obtained in a parallel project whose goal is to identify the best risk management strategies through the development of GIS （geographic information system）-based scenarios for different risk and vulnerability reduction options.

Analysis of Main Climatic Disasters in Rice Production in Changsha and its Strategies

According to the meteorological data from National Basic Meteorological Station in Changsha in recent 43 years and statistics of occurrence time and intensity of main meteorological disasters for rice in Changsha in recent 13 years,a comparison was conducted to the meteorological situations between the first 30 years and the last 13 years.Results indicated that the main meteorological disasters in rice production in Changsha showed an increasing occurrence tendency of high temperature damage,drought and cold-dew wind,but a decreasing occurrence tendency of low temperature,late spring cold,dry and hot wind,gale,hail,flood,cloudy and drizzly day.In the end,some corresponding strategies for preventing and reducing meteorological disasters in rice production were put forward.

Numerical simulation on the risk of roof water inrush in Wuyang Coal Mine

Water-inrush in mine is one of the mine disasters caused by mining.In order to assess the risk of roof water-inrush in Wuyang Coal Mine based on the geological material of the coal mine,we built numerical models for the roof fracture and seepage development rule by using RFPA2D and COMSOL respectively,to analyze the changes in fracture zone,stress,water pressure and seepage vector with the advancement of working face,and compared the results with the field investigated data.The numerical simulation results indicate that:(1) with the advancement of the working faces,the stress relief range and fracture zone in the overlying strata increased rapidly up to about 90 m,and then tended to remain constant,reaching a final height of about 95 m which agrees with the field investigation;(2) the seepage flow constantly increased with a larger flow volume both in the front and rear area,where the stress concentration are the most serious.