A Forest Fire Risk Assessment Using ASTER Images in Peninsular Malaysia

Based on the physical concept of heat energy of pre-ignition,a new fire susceptibility index (FSI) is used to estimate forest fire risk. This physical basis allows calculation of ignition probabilities and comparisons of fire risk across eco-regions. The computation of the index requires inputs of fuel temperature and fuel moisture content (FMC),both of which can be estimated using remote sensing data. While ASTER data for land surface temperatures (LST) was used as proxys for fuel temperatures,fuel moisture content is estimated by regression technique utilizing the ratio NDVI/LST of ASTER data. FSIs are computed in peninsular Malaysia for nine days before the fires of 2004 and 2005 and validated with fire occurrence data. Results show that the FSI increases as the day approaches the fire day. This trend can be observed clearly about four days before the day of fire. It suggests that FSI can be a good estimator of fire risk. The physical basis provides a more meaningful FSI,allows calculation of ignition probabilities and facilitates the development of a future class of fire risk models. FSI can be used to compare fire risk across different eco-regions and time periods. FSI retains the flexibility to be localized to a vegetation type or eco-regions for improved performance.

Reservoir characteristics and hydrocarbon accumulation of Carboniferous volcanic weathered crust of Zhongguai high area in the western Junggar Basin, China

Based on the drilling,cores,logs,seismic,laboratory analysis and so on,reservoir characteristics and hydrocarbon accumulation of Carboniferous volcanic weathered crust in Zhongguai high area are studied.Volcanic rocks were formed in an island arc environment.The lithology is mainly andesite and tuff;Reservoir spaces are mainly secondary pore,fracture and their combination forms,fractures have a better effect on reservoir seepage;There are four layer structures of volcanic weathered crust,weathered clay layer,strongly weathered zone,weakly weathered zone and unweathered zone and strongly weathered zone is the best,which is the main reservoir development zone;The development of reservoir is mainly affected by weathering-leaching,lithology and lithofacies,and fault(fracture);Effective reservoirs could reach to 480 m thickness(high quality reservoirs are within 240 m).Carboniferous volcanic reservoirs are distributed along three zones,which are near the fault zone,high structural part,favorable lithofacies development zone,and one plane,which is near the unconformity.

Fire risk evaluation research on fully mechanized coalface based on the uncertainty measure theory

A relatively perfect coalmine fire risk-evaluating and order-arranging model that includes sixteen influential factors was established according to the statistical information of the fully mechanized coalface ground on the uncertainty measure theory. Then the single-index measure function of sixteen influential factors and the calculation method of computing the index weight ground on entropy theory were respectively established. The value assignment of sixteen influential factors was carried out by the qualitative analysis and observational data, respectively, in succession. The sequence of fire danger class of four experimental coalfaces could be obtained by the computational aids of Matlab according to the confidence level criterion. Some conclusions that the fire danger class of the No.l, No.2 and No.3 coalface belongs to high criticality can be obtained. But the fire danger class of the No.4 coalface belongs to higher criticality. The fire danger class of the No.4 coalface is more than that of the No.2 coalface. The fire danger class of the No.2 coalface is more than that of the No.1 coalface. Finally, the fire danger class of the No.1 coalface is more than that of the No.3 coalface.

Numerical Experiments on Critical Ventilation Velocity and Back-layer in Tunnel Fire

Full-scale numerical experiments were carried out on the vehicular fire in a long tunnel to study the critical ventilation velocity and back-layer distance with heat release rate of 5, 20 and 100 MW respectively. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of fire-driven fluid flow FDS(Fire Dynamics Simulator) was used to solve numerically a form of the Navier-Stokes equations for fire. The results were compared with the expressions proposed in the literature. A modified equation for the critical ventilation velocity was given to better fit the experimental results. A bi-exponential model that well fitted the numerical experimental results was proposed to describe the relationship between back-layer distance and ventilation velocity.

Improvement and upgrade of mine fire simulation program MFIRE

MFIRE, an underground mine fire simulation program developed in 1980＇s, is a tool that can be used to simulate the impacts of a mine fire event to a mine ventilation network. However, the lack of the abilities to simulate some of the important mine fire phenomena realistically hindered its wide applications. This research carried out to improve and upgrade the MFIRE 2.20 program to MFIRE 2.30. The new additions of MFIRE 2.30 including a time dependent fire model, smoke rollback prediction, the incorporation of a moving fire source, and a rewriting of MFIRE in Microsoft Visual C＋＋ were interpreted.

THE COMBUSTION CHARACTERISTICS OF A MOVABLE LINEAR FIRE SEAT IN MINE FIRES

Because of the difficulties of describing the process of combustion of underground mine fires, usually the fire seat is considered as a fixed point in the methods of mine fire computer simulation, however this is not in keeping with the feature of the distribution of the combustibles and the process of combustion in mine fires. A conception about movable linear fire seat is put forward first by the authors, together with the calculated models of the thermal decomposition rate, flame spreading velocity and the steady burning length of a linear fire seat etc. The paper also introduces the results of the application of these models.

RECURRENT NEURAL NETWORK-BASED PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT

Instead of existing methods,a recurrent neural network is conceived to deal with three stages of portfolio management.Mainly,a deterministic annealing neural network is proposed for the approach to portfolio problem,which is a kind of quadratic programming.Finally,through a real example,we verify that the neural network model proposed in this paper is a good tool to solve the portfolio problem.

Practical application of pressure regulating technology for fire district in Meiyukou Coal Mine

Based on the simulated laboratory experiment of pressure balance for fire ex- tinguishing,the pressure regulating technology was summarized for the fire district in Meiyukou Coal Mine.The technology includes three measures for air pressure regulation, namely applying the pressure regulating chamber to balance the air pressure of fire district, increasing the air pressure of the working face,and filling the ground surface fractures.A good effect was obtained to prevent and extinguish the fire.When the measures fail to in- crease the pressure of working face or to regulate that of air chamber,the measure to fill the ground surface fractures will play an important role.

Theoretical analysis and applications of Y-Inversion Ventilation System in a mine fire zone

Based on mine fire fighting practices at the 1110 working face of the Brapukuria Coal Mine,Bangladesh,we introduce and discuss the Y-Inversion Ventilation System,the latest technology used both in mine fire zone management and the unsealing process.This ventilation system can ensure that all miners breathed fresh air,providing protection for them during fire fighting and unsealing the fire zone.On the other hand,adjusting the amount of air at the working face and forming a CO leakage path controlled the state of the fire and as well ensured that the different fire extinguishing measures could be applied successfully.These are all fundamental techniques which ensured successful fire extinguishing and unsealing of the fire zone.We also analyzed the main reasons for the spontaneous coal combustion that occurred at the 1110 working face.Successful application of advanced composite polymer colloidal perfusion techniques,polymer foam MEA perfusion and fire-prevention technology by infusing nitrogen,used in mine fire zone management and unsealing,are presented.We value the experience with these techniques very highly and are of the opinion that these techniques could be widely used in mine fire fighting practices under similar spontaneous coal combustion conditions elsewhere.

Experimental Study on Airflow Reversal Within Bypass Branch During Mine Fire

Based on the analysis of conditions for airflow reversal within a bypass branch, the airflow reversal phenomena were successfully simulated in the laboratory experiments. Data obtained indicate that airflow reversal within a bypass branch is mainly caused by fire pressure yielded in the combustion branch. In addition, the maximum reversal quantity of airflow occurs in step with the highest temperature of fire, the highest concentration of CO 2 and the lowest concentration of O 2. Moreover, the time that fire size reaches the maximum value corresponds to the time airflow reversal in the bypass branch is most possible. The results are of great significance for guiding rescue work to avoid airflow reversal.

Effects of atmospheric pressure fluctuations on hill-side coal fires and surface anomalies

This paper presents numerical studies on the effects of atmospheric pressure fluctuations on hill-side coal fires and their surface anomalies. Based on the single-particle reaction–diffusion model, a formula to estimate oxygen consumption rate at high temperature controlled by oxygen transport is proposed.Daily fluctuant atmospheric pressure was imposed on boundaries, including the abandoned gallery and cracks. Simulated results show that the effects of atmospheric pressure fluctuations on coal fires and surface anomalies depend on two factors: the fluctuant amplitude and the pressure difference between inlet(s) and outlet(s) of the air ventilation system. If the pressure difference is close to the fluctuant amplitude, atmospheric pressure fluctuations greatly enhance gas flow motion and temperatures of the combustion zone and outtake(s). If the pressure difference is much larger than the fluctuant amplitude, atmospheric pressure fluctuations exert no impact on underground coal fires and surface anomalies.

THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE PRECEDING WINTER MJO ACTIVITIES AND THE SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN YANGTZE-HUAIHE RIVER BASIN OF CHINA

The first two series(RMM1 and RMM2) of RMM Index(all-Season Real-time Multivariate MJO Index) are computed to obtain the interannual variation of the preceding winter(preceding December to current February) MJO strength,according to which active(or inactive) years of preceding winter MJO are divided.By utilizing the data provided by NCEP/NCAR,CMAP and China's 160 stations from 1979 to 2008,we studied the preceding winter MJO strength and discovered that the summer precipitation in the basin are of significantly negative correlation,i.e.when the preceding winter MJO is relatively active,the summer precipitation in the basin decreases,and vise verse.We also analyzed the causes.When the preceding winter MJO is relatively active,its release of potential heat facilities Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) to strengthen and locate northward in winter and propagate northeastward.This abnormal situation lasts from winter to summer.In mid-May,ITCZ jumps northward to the South China Sea,the western Pacific subtropical high withdraws eastward,and the South China Sea summer monsoon sets off and strengthens.In summer,ITCZ propagates to South China Sea-subtropical western Pacific,the zonal circulation of subtropical Pacific strengthens,and a local meridional circulation of the South China Sea to the basin area forms,giving rise to the East Asia Pacific teleconnection wave-train.An East Asian monsoon trough and the Meiyu front show opposite features from south to north,the East Asian summer monsoon strengthens and advances northward.As a result,the summer monsoon is weakened as the basin is controlled by the subtropical high continually,with less rain in summer.On the contrary,when the preceding winter MJO is inactive,ITCZ weakens and is located southward,the subtropical high is located southward in summer,and the basin is in a region of ascending airflow with prevailing southwest wind.The East Asian monsoon trough and EASM weaken so that summer monsoon is reduced in the basin where precipitation increases.

Forecasting of wind velocity:An improved SVM algorithm combined with simulated annealing

Accurate forecasting of wind velocity can improve the economic dispatch and safe operation of the power system. Support vector machine (SVM) has been proved to be an efficient approach for forecasting. According to the analysis with support vector machine method, the drawback of determining the parameters only by experts' experience should be improved. After a detailed description of the methodology of SVM and simulated annealing, an improved algorithm was proposed for the automatic optimization of parameters using SVM method. An example has proved that the proposed method can efficiently select the parameters of the SVM method. And by optimizing the parameters, the forecasting accuracy of the max wind velocity increases by 34.45%, which indicates that the new SASVM model improves the forecasting accuracy.

Study and Application of W-Flame Boiler Startup Aided by Adjacent Hot Primary Air

In this paper,the designed features of a W-flame coal-fired boiler are introduced.A scheme of joint primary air for two boilers is made and technical measures are also taken based on corresponding analyses and studies.The scheme and the measures provide a reference for technicians to improve the efficiencies and reduce the startup costs of other similar large boilers.

Calculation of CO Behavior in the Platform for Deeply Underground Subway Station with Different Fire Strengths

Effect of different fire strengths on the smoke distribution in the subway station is investigated. Shin-Gum-Ho station （line #5） in Seoui is selected as a case study for variation of CO （carbon monoxide） distribution caused by the fire in the platform. The ventilation in the station is set to be an air supply mod in the lobby and an air exhaustion mod in the platform. One-side main tunnel ventilation （7,000 m3/min） is applied to operate in the tunnel. The fire is assumed to break out in the middle of train parked in the platform tunnel. Two kinds of fire strength are used. One is 10 MW and the other is 20 MW. Ventilation diffusers in the station are modeled as 317 square shapes ＆ four rectangular shapes in the lobby and platform. The total of 7.5 million grids is generated and whole domain is divided to 22 blocks for parallel computation. Large eddy simulation method is applied to solve the momentum equation. The behavior of CO is calculated according to different fire strengths and compared with each other.

COMPUTER SIMULATION OF VENTILATION PRESSURE BALANCING FOR THE PREVENTION OF SPONTANEOUS COMBUSTION IN MINES

Qualitative analysis plus trial and error method are still the routine to achieve ventilation pressure balancing. These methods may cause large errors in pressure balancing so that sometimes the spontaneous combustion can not be extinguished effectively. This paper introduces a quantitative analysis of pressure balancing for different causes of ventilation networks and develops a computer program (SPFPB) specifically written for pressure balancing between faces and connected gobs. It allows a user to choose different metheds to meet his various needs and the underground conditions. The different balancing results are compared, and the proper locations and sizes of the control devices are recommended.

Electricity Generation in Turkey by Geothermal Energy Resources

Electricity generation generally is made in thermal, hydro, geothermal power plants and windfarms/windparks. Because of some advantages such as renewability, low-cost, clean, safe and naturality geothermal and wind energy will have been electricity generation source in the near future. Turkey has hot water springs suitable for electricity generation between 130-242 ~C with natural vapor and hydrothermal alterations in connection with grabens limited to active faults and diffuse young volcanism in Western Anatolia Region. Other renewable energy and electricity generation resource is wind energy. In Turkey electricity generation is made by windfarms/windparks. These parks/farms are generated 1,414.55 MW electricity. The year 2010 electricity general total installed capacity in Turkey is about 49,524.1 MW. According to the total installed capacity, thermal power plants have 65.18%, hydro power plants have 31.97%, geothermal power plants and wind farms have 2.85%. Electricity generation generally was obtained from 15 thermal power plants. In this study high temperature geothermal fields and windparks/windfarms in Turkey which are suitable for electricity generation potential were investigated.

Risk Management of Key Issues of FPSO

Risk analysis of key systems have become a growing topic late of because of the development of offshore structures. Equipment failures of offioading system and fire accidents were analyzed based on the floating production, storage and offioading （FPSO） features. Fault tree analysis （FTA）, and failure modes and effects analysis （FMEA） methods were examined based on information already researched on modules of relex reliability studio （RRS）. Equipment failures were also analyzed qualitatively by establishing a fault tree and Boolean structure function based on the shortage of failure cases, statistical data, and risk control measures examined. Failure modes of fire accident were classified according to the different areas of fire occurrences during the FMEA process, using risk priority number （RPN） methods to evaluate their severity rank. The qualitative analysis of FTA gave the basic insight of forming the failure modes of FPSO offioading, and the fire FMEA gave the priorities and suggested processes. The research has practical importance for the security analysis problems of FPSO.

Chemical Weathering of New Pyroclastic Deposits from Mt. Merapi (Java), Indonesia

The Java Island, Indonesia with abundant amount of pyroclastic deposits is located in the very active and dynamic Pacific Ring of Fires. Studying the geochemical weathering indices of these pyroclastic deposits is important to get a clear picture about weathering profiles on deposits resulting from the eruption of Mt. Merapi. Immediately after the first phase of the eruption （March to June 2006）, moist and leached pyroclastic deposits were collected. These pyroclastic deposits were found to be composed of volcanic glass, plagioclase feldspar in various propoitions, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, olivine, amphibole and titanomagnetite. The total elemental composition of the bulk samples （including trace elements and heavy metals） was determined by wet chemical methods and X-ray fluorescence （XRF） analyses. Weathering of the pyroelastic deposits was studied using various weathering indices. The Ruxton ratio, weathering index of Parker, Vought resudual index and chemical index of weathering of moist pyroclastic deposits were lower than those of the leached samples, but the alteration indices （chemical and plagioclase） were slightly higher in the moist compared to the leached pyroelastic deposits.