“稳金融”背景下地方法人银行机构信用风险防范研究

在“稳金融”背景下,本文主要对包商银行信用风险产生的原因进行了具体的分析,并对当前包商银行信用风险管理方面存在的问题进行了深入探讨,在围绕信用风险管理的特点与优化所遵循的原则基础上,提出了一些针对性建议。

新形势下“稳金融”的若干思考

随着中央经济工作会议的呼吁,新的一年需要创新和宏观调控,促进稳定增长,推进改革,调整结构,保持经济和经济运行的合理区间。进一步稳定就业、金融、对外贸易、投资、预测,加强我国市场的信心,增强人民生活的幸福指数和安全指数,保持经济持续健康发展和整个社会稳定。

中国金融稳定立法的底层逻辑与路径选择

在当前百年未有之大变局加速演进的特殊时期,需要加速推进中国金融稳定立法。为了确保中国金融稳定立法的精准有效,需要对中国金融稳定立法的底层逻辑进行深入研究,并在此基础上探寻中国金融稳定立法的路径。从历史与现实的维度来看,中国金融稳定立法的底层逻辑在于防范化解金融风险、应对可能发生的金融危机;从经济与社会的维度来看,中国金融稳定立法的底层逻辑在于促进经济高质量发展、维护社会和谐稳定;从国内与国际的维度来看,中国金融稳定立法的底层逻辑在于建设金融强国、维护国家金融安全。基于上述三重维度的底层逻辑,中国金融稳定立法应当坚持中国特色的基本路径、选择综合立法的基本模式、采取联动立法的推进方式。

Risk Premiums and Financial Stability

The collective revelation of credit institutions as regards the imminence of specific risks materialising, which often follows long periods of underestimating probable losses, can trigger a broad-based financial deleveraging via an overly high upsurge in banks＇ risk premiums vis-a-vis the dynamics of fundamentals underlying loan repayment capability. In this context, this paper seeks to investigate the banking sector＇s internal mechanisms that might bring about a negative spiral of credit risk by building a model for the interaction between the increase of the risk premium and that of net interest income and provisioning rate. Statistical results confirm that a higher risk premium is one of the major determinants of credit default in Romania and its excessive widening could affect financial stability in Romania.

Impact of Financial Development on the Environmental Quality in Iran

In recent decades, undesirable environmental changes, such as global warming and greenhouse gases emission, have raised worldwide concerns. In order to achieve higher growth rate, environmental problems emerged from economic activities have turned into a controversial issue. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of financial development on environmental quality in Iran. For this purpose, the statistical data over the period from 1970 to 2011 were used. Also by using the Auto Regression Model Distributed Lag （ARDL）, short-term and long-term relationships among the variables of model were estimated and analyzed. The results show that financial development accelerates the degradation of the environment; however, the increase in trade openness reduces the damage to environment in Iran. Error correction coefficient shows that in each period, 53% of imbalances would be justified and will approach their long-run procedure. Structural stability tests show that the estimated coefficients were stable over the period.

The impact of credit risk transfer on financial stability

The development of credit risk transfer market disperse the credit risk of banks, at the same time, also give a threat to the whole financial system with instability. This paper from the influence factors of financial stability, explores how credit risk affecting the stability of financial system. Research found that the rating risk of credit risk transfer can cause default contagion in the financial markets.

The Cost of Financial Stability in Times of Crisis： The Case of Bulgaria

The global economic turmoil from 2008 inflicted permanent damage to EU economies and its impact is still strong. To address the problems and cope with the crisis, governments were forced to conduct anti-cyclical policies in different forms. In most countries, this resulted in a widening budget deficit and mounting government debt. Then, a raft of measures to deal with fiscal instability followed, which, however, restricted growth and had high economic and social costs. Bulgaria was among the EU Member States that turned fiscal discipline into a priority and was one of the few to manage, at least seemingly, to achieve satisfying results. The benefits that the country reaped are indisputable but the price it had to pay was too high. Many private sector companies faced insolvency, unemployment hit record highs, and important structural reforms were delayed.

The Causes of Contagion： Rational or Irrational Behavior？

The threats concerning financial stability seriously affect the overall functioning of the economy at a local, regional, national, and continental level instead of a global level, and therefore, the emphasis is laid on analyzing the causes and effects of such threats. Financial crises in the current decade, as well as those in the past have shown that a major cause of instability in the global market is the so-called financial contagion. This leads to a natural question： whether similar authorities could specify and mitigate these shocks through efficient calculation followed by stability measures taken by banking networks. To answer this question, an empirical research was conducted by analyzing the degree of contagion induced by markets in Central and Eastern Europe, based on an econometric model, involving over 17 European countries, from January 2006 to January 2013.

Sino-US Relations： A Hegemonic Stability Perspective

The financial crisis, beginning from 2008, has brought into sharp relief just how dependent the US has become on foreign creditors, chiefly among them China. It has also sharpened the perception of the relative decline of a US- centric West and the relative rise of a China-centric Aria. The changing relationship between the US and China does demand a new tone. The article will be based on the Hegemonic Stability Theory. According to Charles Kindleberger, one of the scholars most closely associated with the theory, the United States should have acted as a lender of last resort in the early 1930s, continuing to keep its financial markets open to investment and its market open to foreign goods, rather than heading down the path of protectionism. With the inability to complete the Doha round of trade negotiations, the rising influence of the Group of 20, and the centrality of China in the climate change negotiations in Copenhagen, it has been proven that ＂ the provision of basic global public goods now demands co-operation between the established powers and emerging countries. ＂ However, today＇s China may be in a position comparable to that of the US in the 1930s and cannot hope to stabilize the world on its own＇ Thus, the article will also investigate the competition between China and the US for sharing fairer burdens to provide public goods. Based on Hegemonic Stability Theory, the world politics will not be stable in the near future because, on the one hand, the US has not enough capability to lead and to enforce the rules of the system, on the other hand, China has no will to establish a hegemonic regime.

Restricted normal mixture QMLE for non-stationary TGARCH(1,1) models

The threshold GARCH(TGARCH)models have been very useful for analyzing asymmetric volatilities arising from financial time series.Most research on TGARCH has been directed to the stationary case.This paper studies the estimation of non-stationary first order TGARCH models.Restricted normal mixture quasi-maximum likelihood estimation(NM-QMLE)for non-stationary TGARCH models is proposed in the sense that we estimate the other parameters with any fixed location parameter.We show that the proposed estimators(except location parameter)are consistent and asymptotically normal under mild regular conditions.The impact of relative leptokursis and skewness of the innovations’distribution and quasi-likelihood distributions on the asymptotic efficiency has been discussed.Numerical results lend further support to our theoretical results.Finally,an illustrated real example is presented.

WHERE IS THE YUAN HEADING?

The year has started off with a nervous shudder of paranoia amidst steep market tumbles and the recent depreciation of the yuan against the U.S.dollar,raising doubts of the stability of China＇s financial market. Rest assured, the effective exchange rate of the yuan maintains stable, and there are a multitude of factors buttressing the Chinese currency in the medium and long term.