“经济岛”效应

集中优势资源激活一个点，膨胀一个点带动一个面，西部大开发应重视——

“老有所养”能促进农村中老年人的身心健康吗——基于社会养老保险的视角

基于2013—2018年中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,采用双向固定效应模型和工具变量法实证检验了城乡居民养老保险对农村中老年人生理健康和精神健康的影响。研究发现,城乡居民养老保险对农村中老年人的健康效应,主要体现在精神健康的保障上,对生理健康的作用有限。在“心理保险”和“经济保险”效应下,城乡居民养老保险对缴费人群和领取养老金人群的精神健康均产生积极效应,其中对领取人群的抑郁缓解效果更强。机制分析发现,尽管城乡居民养老保险会通过提高子女异地生活的概率、减少子女探望关怀对农村中老年人的精神健康产生不利影响,但还会通过增加食物支出、子女转移支付及劳动供给改善其精神健康。据此,建议完善缴费激励机制,推进家庭养老支持政策,发展社区养老互助模式,充分发挥城乡居民养老保险在保障居民健康福祉的积极作用。

社会流动与人际信任:基于CGSS数据的实证研究

利用"中国综合社会调查(CGSS)"数据探讨社会流动影响人际信任的内在机制。研究发现,社会流动通过"经济"效应和"道德"效应这两种机制间接影响人际信任,但这两种效应对人际信任起作用的方式是不同的。"经济"效应对包括熟人信任和生人信任在内的人际信任表现出了同样的效应,它强化了向上社会流动对人际信任的提升作用。但"道德"效应对熟人信任和生人信任这两类信任的间接作用却表现出与"经济"效应明显的不同,它对熟人信任无显著性影响,而对生人信任却有非常显著的负向预测作用。研究还发现,不同社会流动类型对人际信任表现出了差异性的影响效应。从社会流动角度考察人际信任形成的内在机制,不仅能够为人际信任研究提供新视角,也能为寻求转型期人际信任的提升和重建提供启示。

Creative Industries Agglomeration,Regional Innovation and Productivity Growth in China

This paper falls into the broad area of economic geography and economics of creativity,and it presents an alternative approach to explain why total factor productivity(TFP)growth is different across China′s regions.It establishes an empirical model to estimate the spatial agglomeration effects of creative industries on regional TFP growth,using China′s provincial panel data during the period of 2003 to 2010.We found that the creative industries agglomeration(CIA)has significant and positive impact on regional TFP growth.The result also implies that the CIA can facilitate regional TFP growth through promoting regional innovation instead of improving regional efficiency.Therefore,we argue that policy makers should take some measures to retain and establish more creative zones.

Structural Fiscal Regulation and Choice of Instruments in the New Normal

Based on the overall consideration of individual behaviors of Ricardian and non-Ricardian households, this paper develops a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model to form a relatively systematic research framework for analyzing the economic effects of structural fiscal instruments. Our study findsthat great differences exist in the macroeconomic effects of different fiscal instruments, suggesting that the government should prudently select these fiscal instruments in fiscal macro-control. The simulating results of fiscal shocks show that the effect of tax cut is superior to the effect of increased spending. In the context of slowing economic growth and less potent stimulation policy, the government should transform its previous regulatory approach of fiscal policy and shift from hefty spending stimulus policy to structural tax cuts. This paper believes that China should step up the implementation of public-private partnership, increase its spending on social security, healthcare, pension and public services and facilitate the transition toward a service-based government; and that tax policy should focus on structural tax cuts on consumption to promote the transition of demand structure toward consumption-driven.

Relationship Between Social Economic Agglomeration and Labor Productivity of Core Cities in Northeast China

Dalian, Shenyang, Changchun and Harbin are the four core cities which play an essential role in terms of promoting the economic development in Northeast China. In this paper, the impact of urban agglomeration on labor productivity is explored by making comparisons among these four cities. The model used for analysis is a classical model derived from previous studies. Some indicators, such as population density and economic density, were selected to examine the impact of urban agglomeration on the labor productivity based on the time-series data for the four cities from 1990 to 2007. The four main conclusions are： l） The promotion from the growth rate of population density on the growth rate of labor productivity is limited. 2） The negative relationship exists between the growth rate of employment density and the growth rate of labor productivity. 3） Agglomeration effect exists in the four cities, the highest one is Dalian, Shenyang takes the second place, followed by Changchun and Harbin, and the predominant promotion exerted on the labor productivity is the output density.

Multi-physics analysis of permanent magnet tubular linear motors under severe volumetric and thermal constraints

Permanent magnet tubular linear motors(TLMs) arranged in multiple rows and multiple columns used for a radiotherapy machine were studied. Due to severe volumetric and thermal constraints, the TLMs were at high risk of overheating. To predict the performance of the TLMs accurately, a multi-physics analysis approach was proposed. Specifically, it considered the coupling effects amongst the electromagnetic and the thermal models of the TLMs, as well as the fluid model of the surrounding air. To reduce computation cost, both the electromagnetic and the thermal models were based on lumped-parameter methods. Only a minimum set of numerical computation(computational fluid dynamics, CFD) was performed to model the complex fluid behavior. With the proposed approach, both steady state and transient state temperature distributions, thermal rating and permissible load can be predicted. The validity of this approach is verified through the experiment.

The Economic Effect of Mineral Resources Exploitation in Bijie Prefecture in Guizhou

The exploitation of mineral resources plays an important role in promoting national economic development. Mining is an essential component of China's industrial economy. Using grey correlation method to analyze the correlative effect of mineral resources exploitation to relevant industries, using national income method to calculate the pulling effect of mineral resources exploitation to economic growth and using graphs as well as tables to analyze the income distribution effect, the article obtains active economic effect of mineral resources development in Bijie, Guizhou. Moreover, from the view of resources-cored effect, the article analyzes negative effects such as single industrial structure brought by mineral resource development. Through analysis, we find that mineral resources exploitation to some extent brings active effects including gross domestic product growth, local financial revenue growth and relevant industries development; however, its negative effects should not be ignored. The negative effect can be lightened by diversifying industrial structure and prolonging industrial chain.

A Pragmatic Approach for Assessing the Economic Performance of Model Predictive Control Systems and Its Industrial Application

In this article,an approach for economic performance assessment of model predictive control(MPC) system is presented.The method builds on steady-state economic optimization techniques and uses the linear quadratic Gaussian(LQG) benchmark other than conventional minimum variance control(MVC) to estimate the potential of reduction in variance.The LQG control is a more practical performance benchmark compared to MVC for performance assessment since it considers input variance and output variance,and it thus provides a desired basis for determining the theoretical maximum economic benefit potential arising from variability reduction.Combining the LQG benchmark directly with benefit potential of MPC control system,both the economic benefit and the optimal operation condition can be obtained by solving the economic optimization problem.The proposed algorithm is illustrated by simulated example as well as application to economic performance assessment of an industrial model predictive control system.

An Analysis of the Possible Economic Effects of HIV/AIDS in Swaziland Using the SAM and CGE Models

This is a conceptual paper which was motivated by the fact that Swaziland does not have a Social Accounting Matrix （SAM） in place and as such there are many shocks that affect that country＇s economy but which cannot be analyzed effectively. Most notable of this is the economic effects of the HIV/AIDS scourge that is affecting that country of which it has been difficult to determine the effects it has had on the economy in an objective manner. This paper will highlight the usefulness of the SAM and Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） models in analyzing the possible economic effects of HIV/AIDS in Swaziland. The absence of a SAM for Swaziland means that empirical analysis of the effect of the disease on the economy could not be undertaken, but it is hoped that the arguments presented here will contribute to the use of these methods as tools for analyzing various shocks in an economy. The paper is divided into 4 parts. Part 1 is a brief introduction into the Swaziland economy, part 2 is a brief description of the SAM, description of CGE Modeling and a detailed application of the SAM data into the CGE modeling framework, part 3 introduces the HIV/AIDS situation in Swaziland and models its possible effects using a macroeconomic SAM and part 4 is the discussion and conclusion. The main aim of the paper then is to lay the basic framework to help small developing countries develop practical SAMs that will become an important tool in analyzing the performances of their economies.

The Economic Effect of the Housing Refurbishment in Urban Regeneration

With the increasing ratio of self-owned housing, the demand for new building as gradually reduced. In other words, the demand of refurbishment becomes more urgent. The major objective of this paper is to explore and investigate the consumer behavior of housing renovation. We plan to explore the direct effects of housing refurbishment or restoration on the housing prices, and then the indirect effects of an externality spilled over to the neighbor. We will understand the overall effects to provide a preliminary estimate of the changing in the economic value resulting from the change in the housing refurbishment or restoration of buildings. This research also dig into how the effects in the housing refurbishment or restoration in Taipei city ＆ Kaohsiung city. The purpose is to investigate the driving force on the housing restoration. This study will be the empirical study on the economic values by using hedonic price model. The result will be useful on the decision-making on the urban regeneration by the way of housing restoration and suggests that property owners of a housing estate will benefit from participating on refurbishment in Taiwan.

The Accounting and Economic Effects of Currency Translation Standards： AASB 1012 vs. AASB 121

This paper1 empirically examines the accounting and the economic effects of foreign exchange rate fluctuations on the oil and gas industry under the former and the current translation accounting standards in Australia. Due to the unique features of the oil and gas industry and based on an analysis of the former standard-Australian Accounting Standards Board （AASB） 1012, the authors predict that a positive translation adjustment （the accounting effect） is associated with a loss, instead of a creation of the firm value （the economic effect） under AASB 1012. The authors also predict that the new standard AASB 121, adapted from the International Accounting Standard （IAS） 21 with modifications, will report translation adjustments that are consistent with the economic effects. By using Australia-based multinational oil and gas firms, the authors find that translation adjustments under AASB 1012 are inversely associated with firm value and that the relationship changes to a positive one under AASB 121. This study concludes that the new standard has the potential to improve the quality of the translation accounting information.

Effects of Contractual Savings Scheme on Slovak National Economy

Abstract： Contractual savings scheme is specific purpose saving, which was provided in Slovakia since 1993. It is a state-supported saving, the purpose of which is to finance housing needs in the Slovak Republic. Savers can be an individual, association of owners or legal person who enters into a contract with building society or for whom the contract about contractual savings scheme is concluded. State bonuses is contractual savings scheme, a significantly more attractive form of targeted saving. This ensures the supply of investment in the construction sector, which in turn through multiplier effect significantly affects other sectors of the national economy. In this article, the authors deal with the influence of contractual savings scheme to the national economy of the Slovak Republic. The main objective of this study is describing the effectiveness of state bonuses for contractual savings scheme. It is simulated through the impact of contractual savings scheme on employment, on public funds and impact on public finances. This effect is illustrated on a model of state subsidizing of each one Euro spent through the state bonuses for contractual savings scheme and its impact for the national economy with offsetting the significant role of the multiplier effect.

Macroeconomic Impacts of Contemporary Electricity Reform： 19 OECD and Seven Australian States

This paper examines the impacts of market-oriented electricity reform on macroeconomic variables. It develops an ad hoc econometric model for this purpose, using a panel data of 19 developed countries plus seven Australian States for the period of 1970-2008. Significance of the impacts is firstly tested against three distinct institutional features of electricity reform, namely： （1） organizational restructuring （i.e., functional unbundling of traditionally vertically integrated industry）; （2） market restructuring （introduction of mandatory bid-based spot market）; and （3） privatization. The extents of the impacts are, then, quantified in terms of relative contribution of such institutional changes to aggregate output growth in short-run, medium-run and long-run. The results reveal that only functional unbundling has made significant contribution to output growth. The results, further, specify that functional unbundling has made, on average, an additional 0.06% and 2.7% contribution to output growth rate in medium-run and long-run respectively.

Economic growth convergence of Chinese provinces and industrial sectors

Province＇ s per capita income is mainly decided by the industrial sector output, and to reduce regional disparities needs to start from the industrial sector. This article will divide national economy into eight sectors, use panel data and mixed effects regression and fixed model, in order to have a convergence test for provinces and various industry sectors during 1993-2009, there is absolute convergence existed in the various provinces and industrial sectors, and use Bernard and Jones method to have a research on the provincial sources of GDP growth and convergence and find that the coordinated development of agriculture and industry plays a decisive role in province＇ s GDP growth and convergence,

Electricity Consumption and Spillover Effects A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

The paper intends to analyze economic factors that influence electricity consumption in the OECD economies. A special interest in this context is given to spillover effects of trade on electricity consumption. For this purpose, a model is constructed that using a dynamic panel study approach. The model is estimated in a GMM framework in which a dynamic procedure is conducted along the balanced growth path for electricity consumption in each economy. In advance, the long run dynamic behavior of prices, GDP, and trade induced spillover variables is determined. In a further step, the short run dynamic mechanism is pursued by estimating the partial adjustment dynamic coefficient on the target level of electricity consumption. The analysis is conducted for industrial, as well as residential electricity consumption. Alternatively, the same procedure is estimated by the application of a fixed period model. The model provides a benchmark tool for electricity policy decisions and for electricity consumption projections.

The Sports Culture Creative Industry in the UK and its Enlightenment on Sports Industry of China

This research is based on creative industry of sports culture of the U.K. Firstly, the literature research method is used to collect relevant authoritative economic data, and clarify and identify concepts of the sports culture creative industry with the ＂rule of thirds＂ of creative industry of the U.K.; secondly, empirical research is conducted to describe an active and drive function of the 3 kinds of expansion effects-forward effect, bystander effect and backward effect on peripheral industries on sports industry and even national economy development by rapid development of the sports culture creative industry in the U.K.; thirdly, this paper figures out that the sports culture creative industry will become new economic growth, ixew development route for the sports industry in the future and new power for industrial structure optimization and upgrading; finally, the research outcome gives reference and guide to scientific development, transformation and upgrading of the sports industry of China in the new round of worlds＇ economic restructuring.

The analysis of the rural cooperative finance characteristic

The paper set off from the nature characteristics of rural cooperation finance, analyzing the finance cooperation in our rural areas. It points out that the supporting strength is difficult to maintain the need of simple reproduction, disturbing the consistence between the intense need of the important peasant household and the market-oriented development of enterprise produce What is more, and functional cultivating becomes reverse circulation, forming shoulders adjustment mechanism in the majority of our rural areas. In the long run, if we want to break the influence of the long-term effect of dual economy between urban and rural areas, plan the development of urban and rural as a whole, build socialism new rural area, the key is to comply with the principle ＂root in rural area, originally in the peasant, quality in cooperation ＂, build and perfect the serve system of rural cooperation finance.

The application of industrial accounting in corporate finance industry

In the increasingly fierce market competition, economic efficiency of enterprises is the fundamental for enterprise＇ s development and survival; accounting plays an important role in enterprise management. The appearance of accounting industry is to meet the economic needs of management within the organization and gradually developed, its main functions is to improve operating efficiency and to establish and provide a variety of data and information, such as internal management needs. Based on this, the paper makes an analysis about the role that industry accounting play for corporate financial management in China.

The Driving Forces and Synergistic Effect between Regional Economic Growth,Resources and the Environment in the Yangtze River Economic Zone

From the viewpoints of population,resources,environment and economic-social development,we establish the models of accounting for resource and environmental costs and coordinated（or relative coordinated） development degrees between economic growth and resources and the environment using the evaluation method of ecosystem service value.Synergistic effects between regional economic growth and resources and the environment in the Yangtze River Economic Zone was analyzed and driving forces were analyzed by regression of partial least squares.We found that from 1983 to 2012,resource and environmental costs in the Yangtze River Economic Zone（including seven provinces and two municipalities） increased from 4736.55 trillion CNY to 15 359.45 trillion CNY and corresponding weights dropped from 31.1% to 19.7% compared to the national level.The degree of coordinated development rose from 0.295 to 1.506,higher than the national average.In the years 1983,1993 and 2003,the main factor that drove the coordinated development of regional economic growth,resources and the environment was low level resource and environmental costs.With continuous increases in primary and tertiary industrial added values after 2012,the advantage of the Yangtze River Economic Zone has weakened.In the future,provinces should improve the rules and regulations on planning and implementing main functional areas,promote adjustment of industrial structure,restore ecology,improve resource utilization efficiency and reduce environmental loss costs to enhance quality of economic development and promote the coordinated development of regional economic growth and resources and the environment.