新丝绸之路的“经济溢出”与“战略克制”

党的十八大以后,我国明确提出"新丝绸之路"战略,即"一带一路"战略。本文从新丝绸之路的"经济溢出"着手研究,了解新丝绸之路对本国经济发展质量的预期贡献以及海上丝绸之路对本国经济持久发展所提供的安全保障。在复杂的国际局势和敏感的国际体系中,对此从"经济溢出"外溢出了"战略克制"的需要。即处理好与美国的战略协调,处理好与周边国家间的利益互利以及确定"有限目标"实为所需。

Spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure on regional economic growth

Spatial spillover effects,either positive or negative,of transport infrastructure,highways/expressways,etc.,on regional economic growth are proposed.Using the panel data for 11 cities of Zhejiang province from 1994 to 2003,a spatial production function is applied to examine the spatial spillovers which can be generated as a positive output spillover from the transport infrastructure between neighboring cities.Some spatial weighted matrices are adopted to define different neighboring cities to measure how easily factors or economic activities can migrate between regions.The estimation results show that the output elasticity of the highway infrastructure in 11 cities are all insignificant at a 5% significance level;hence,highway infrastructure in a region cannot explain the same region's economic growth.On the other hand,the highway infrastructure of other contiguous regions has positive spillover effects on a same region's economic growth.

Spatial Spillover and the Factors Influencing Public Service Supply in Sichuan Province, China

This article examines the spatial characteristics of public service supply and the factors influencing such supply in cities of Sichuan Province, China using spatial-autocorrelation and spatial econometric models with statistical data in 2012. The results demonstrate that expenditures on different types of public services present different spatial autocorrelation patterns. Although the spatial differences in basic public service expenditures are relatively small, a clear fan-shaped spillover to the east can be seen in Chengdu City. Chengdu also shows high clustering of advanced public service expenditures, being a typical core-periphery pattern. Post-earthquake reconstruction expenditures are clustered in the "5.12 Wenchuan earthquake" region and spill over toward cities to the east. The efficiency of public services in the mountainous areas in western Sichuan is low and exhibits a pattern of low-low spatial autocorrelation. The efficiency of public service supply is affected by economic, social, political and geographical factors. Based on the results of this analysis, we recommend a supply strategy that incorporates different types of public services and a specialized public service supply strategy for mountainous areas. Overall public service efficiency should be enhanced by focusing on narrowing the gap in farmers' income among regions and accelerating urbanization. Decision-makers should consider moresupportive policies with regard to providing basic public services in mountainous areas to ensure an equalized supply of basic public services. To enhance the efficiency of advanced public service supply, additional growth pole should be encouraged and incentivized; however, investments are required to drive the development of the peripheral regions through regional economic integration. Both software and hardware types of infrastructure are required to supply services efficiently during post-disaster reconstruction.

Electricity Consumption and Spillover Effects A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

The paper intends to analyze economic factors that influence electricity consumption in the OECD economies. A special interest in this context is given to spillover effects of trade on electricity consumption. For this purpose, a model is constructed that using a dynamic panel study approach. The model is estimated in a GMM framework in which a dynamic procedure is conducted along the balanced growth path for electricity consumption in each economy. In advance, the long run dynamic behavior of prices, GDP, and trade induced spillover variables is determined. In a further step, the short run dynamic mechanism is pursued by estimating the partial adjustment dynamic coefficient on the target level of electricity consumption. The analysis is conducted for industrial, as well as residential electricity consumption. Alternatively, the same procedure is estimated by the application of a fixed period model. The model provides a benchmark tool for electricity policy decisions and for electricity consumption projections.

Legal Value of the Demand Overflow Theory

So many legal issues can be handled in public interest method. As some commentators have pointed out, the public interest is an ancient and new topic. It＇s a highly abstract prone to ambiguities and shortcomings of the concept. And it＇s also a basket that strange, confused and can not be discarded. Even critics simply deny the existence of public interest and regard the public interest as a myth. As it＇s difficult to define the public interest from political perspective, a democratic theory, legal perspective a theory of law, economic perspective a public choice theory, philosophical perspective a public philosophy, and other common perspective. The paper explores the law theory of public interest from the framework of the overflow theory and the perspective of the concept function, and provides an easy to use identification method of public interest for the judicial practice and administrative practices.

Regional Correlation and Spatial Spillovers in China's Regional Economic Growth

Using an exploratory spatial data analytical tool, this paper examines the spatial distribution patterns and features of GDP per capita in each of China＇s provinces. The results indicate that a positive global spatial autocorrelation exists and increases over time. At the same time, local correlation shows that China＇s local spatial agglomeration is becoming ever more marked. Based on a new economic geography model signaling the effects of market potential on regional economic development, this paper further investigates spatial spillover effects on Chinese regional economic growth through econometric analysis. Our empirical analysis shows that spatial spillovers play an important role in China＇s regional economic development. Every 1 percent increase in market potential leads to an increase of 0.47 percent in regional GDP per capita, outperforming increases in regional fixed assets investment in terms of elasticity. Of course, our analysis also shows that spatial spillover effects decrease as inter-regional distance increases.

Has Transport Infrastructure Promoted Regional Economic Growth?——With an Analysis of the Spatial Spillover Effects of Transport Infrastructure

Taking full account of the synergistic effects of multidimensional factors on regional economic growth in China, this paper constructs a model of the spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure on regional economic growth. Using provincial panel data from 1993 to 2009 and employing spatial econometric techniques, our empirical analysis comes to the following conclusions. （1） The total output elasticity of transport infrastructure for regional economic growth varies between 0.05 and 0.07, indicating its important role in such growth. （2） Transport infrastructure has very clear spatial spillover effects on regional economic growth; its role in regional economic growth will be overestimated if these are neglected. （3） For a specific region, transport infrastructure in other regions has mainly positive spillover effects on economic growth, but there is also evidence of negative spillover effects. （4） Among multidimensional factors contributing to regional economic growth, labor pluscapital stock from other parts of the public sector make the greatest contribution to regional economic growth in China, followed by the new economic growth factors and new economic geography.

Regional inequality, spatial spillover effects, and the factors influencing city-level energy-related carbon emissions in China

Data show that carbon emissions are increasing due to human energy consumption associated with economic development. As a result, a great deal of attention has been focused on efforts to reduce this growth in carbon emissions as well as to formulate policies to address and mitigate climate change. Although the majority of previous studies have explored the driving forces underlying Chinese carbon emissions, few have been carried out at the city-level because of the limited availability of relevant energy consumption statistics. Here, we utilize spatial autocorrelation, Markov-chain transitional matrices, a dynamic panel model, and system generalized distance estimation(Sys-GMM) to empirically evaluate the key determinants of carbon emissions at the city-level based on Chinese remote sensing data collected between 1992 and 2013. We also use these data to discuss observed spatial spillover effects taking into account spatiotemporal lag and a range of different geographical and economic weighting matrices. The results of this study suggest that regional discrepancies in city-level carbon emissions have decreased over time, which are consistent with a marked spatial spillover effect, and a ‘club' agglomeration of high-emissions. The evolution of these patterns also shows obvious path dependence, while the results of panel data analysis reveal the presence of a significant U-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and per capita GDP. Data also show that per capita carbon emissions have increased in concert with economic growth in most cities, and that a high-proportion of secondary industry and extensive investment growth have also exerted significant positive effects on city-level carbon emissions across China. In contrast, rapid population agglomeration, improvements in technology, increasing trade openness, and the accessibility and density of roads have all played a role in inhibiting carbon emissions. Thus, in order to reduce emissions, the Chinese government should legislate to inhibit the effects of factors that promote the release of carbon while at the same time acting to encourage those that mitigate this process. On the basis of the analysis presented in this study, we argue that optimizing industrial structures, streamlining extensive investment, increasing the level of technology, and improving road accessibility are all effective approaches to increase energy savings and reduce carbon emissions across China.

The Future of China＇s Automobile Industry

The paper analyses the changes in the China＇s auto industry, showing how the rapid growth in production and sales between 2000 and 2008 came largely from the economic growth. The emergence of homegrown assemblers strengthened fierce competition for all assemblers and resulted in the spreading of regional auto production networks with linkage to leading international automakers. This move integrated China＇s major regional production into the global chain and speeded up technology spillovers in the automobile industry. The paper reveals how the relationships between homegrown makers and joint ventures have been coordinated within the framework of local production networks, which turn out to have a highly localized production capacity. Furthermore, the results stand testimony for the fact that China＇s auto industry is becoming competitive through learning-by-doing. In the future outlook, the growing economy in China will be the most influential driving force to shift the global auto industry into China, which will turn out to be a super auto giant in the coming decade.