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“脆弱性-能力”综合视角下的区域公共安全机理研究--以广东省为例 被引量:3
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作者 朱正威 赵欣欣 蔡李 《中国行政管理》 CSSCI 北大核心 2013年第4期113-118,共6页
本文阐释了区域公共安全机理的内涵,并梳理了区域公共安全机理的研究现状,在"脆弱性-能力"综合视角下,利用系统动力学的方法结合广东省实际分析了区域公共安全演化的宏观机理,同时利用尖点突变模型结合"乌坎事件"... 本文阐释了区域公共安全机理的内涵,并梳理了区域公共安全机理的研究现状,在"脆弱性-能力"综合视角下,利用系统动力学的方法结合广东省实际分析了区域公共安全演化的宏观机理,同时利用尖点突变模型结合"乌坎事件"分析了公共安全事件作用机理,为区域公共安全研究和治理提供支持。区域公共安全水平与区域脆弱性水平有着负反馈关系,而与区域公共危机应对能力之间存在着正反馈的回路关系。当脆弱性与能力的对比超出一定限度时就导致公共安全事件的发生。政府应防微杜渐,避免矛盾积累,降低区域的脆弱性水平,同时积极采取措施提高区域的危机应对能力,防止公共安全事件的发生。 展开更多
关键词 “脆弱性-能力”综合视角 宏观机理 微观机理
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区域公共安全动态评价及关键变量甄别——基于“脆弱性—能力”的视角 被引量:3
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作者 朱正威 王玮 +1 位作者 郭雪松 石佳 《公共行政评论》 CSSCI 2012年第6期97-117,171-172,共21页
我国目前在借鉴和利用国外公共安全评价框架时还存在国际评价方法的标准化和本土化不足、评价工具相对滞后等突出问题。本文在以"脆弱性—能力"为视角的区域公共安全综合评价框架内,利用系统动力学建模工具,以S省为例进行区... 我国目前在借鉴和利用国外公共安全评价框架时还存在国际评价方法的标准化和本土化不足、评价工具相对滞后等突出问题。本文在以"脆弱性—能力"为视角的区域公共安全综合评价框架内,利用系统动力学建模工具,以S省为例进行区域公共安全动态评价以及关键政策变量甄别,寻求在研究视角上实现国际视野与国情社情更有效对接的同时,对传统打分排序式的线性评价进行突破,为提高决策者对公共安全复杂性的认知以及进行科学合理的政策设计提供依据。 展开更多
关键词 公共安全评价 系统动力学仿真 关键变量 “脆弱性-能力”
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Assessing Vulnerability to Drought Based on Exposure,Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity:A Case Study in Middle Inner Mongolia of China 被引量:20
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作者 LIU Xiaoqian WANG Yanglin +2 位作者 PENG Jian Ademola K BRAIMOH YIN He 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2013年第1期13-25,共13页
In this paper,we proposed a framework for evaluating the performance of ecosystem strategies prepared for enhancing vulnerability reduction in the face of hazards due to climate change.The framework highlights the pos... In this paper,we proposed a framework for evaluating the performance of ecosystem strategies prepared for enhancing vulnerability reduction in the face of hazards due to climate change.The framework highlights the positive effects of human activities in the coupled human and natural system(CHANS) by introducing adaptive capacity as an evaluation criterion.A built-in regional vulnerability to a certain hazard was generated based upon interaction of three dimensions of vulnerability:exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity.We illustrated the application of this framework in the temperate farming-grazing transitional zone in the middle Inner Mongolia of the northern China,where drought hazard is the key threat to the CHANS.Specific indices were produced to translate such climate variance and social-economic differences into specific indicators.The results showed that the most exposed regions are the inner land areas,while counties located in the eastern part are potentially the most adaptive ones.Ordos City and Bayannur City are most frequently influenced by multiple climate variances,showing highest sensitivity.Analysis also indicated that differences in the ability to adapt to changes are the main causes of spatial differences.After depiction of the spatial differentiations and analysis of the reasons,climate zones were divided to depict the differences in facing to the drought threats.The climate zones were shown to be similar to vulnerability zones based on the quantitative structure of indexes drafted by a triangular map.Further analysis of the composition of the vulnerability index showed that the evaluation criteria were effective in validating the spatial differentiation but potentially ineffective because of their limited time scope.This research will be a demonstration of how to combine the three dimensions by quantitative methods and will thus provide a guide for government to vulnerability reduction management. 展开更多
关键词 vulnerability assessment standardized precipitation index (SPI) EXPOSURE sensitivity adaptive capacity
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