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反事实分析与公共政策制定——以“自行车难题”为例 被引量:6
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作者 强舸 唐睿 《公共管理学报》 CSSCI 北大核心 2012年第3期32-40,123-124,共9页
本文尝试将反事实分析法引入公共政策制定,用于预先评估某项公共政策可能引发的预期效果和非意愿后果。选取城市治理中的"自行车难题"为案例,探讨反事实分析法在公共政策制定过程中的适用范围、应用方法和分析过程。现有研究... 本文尝试将反事实分析法引入公共政策制定,用于预先评估某项公共政策可能引发的预期效果和非意愿后果。选取城市治理中的"自行车难题"为案例,探讨反事实分析法在公共政策制定过程中的适用范围、应用方法和分析过程。现有研究认为,惩罚成本过低是导致"自行车难题"的主因,因而提高惩罚的治理政策就能解决"自行车难题"。本文采用犯罪经济学的分析框架,通过反事实分析,系统地考察惩罚严厉的治理政策的社会效果,得出与之相反的结论:惩罚严厉的治理政策仅考虑了单一的盗窃成本与收益,但实际上犯罪者的行为选择受各种社会条件制约,严厉的惩罚政策不但不能解决治理问题,并有可能导致社会治安恶化的非意愿后果。单一政策目标和复杂社会系统之间的矛盾是中国公共治理中广泛存在的问题,而在政策制定中引入反事实分析则是避免这一困境的有效途径。 展开更多
关键词 反事实分析 公共政策制定 “自行车难题” 非意愿后果
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舆论监督既要“监”还要“督”——“自行车失窃”系列报道回顾
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作者 孙春兰 《新闻记者》 北大核心 1995年第9期43-44,共2页
让丢失的自行车回家,这象一个朦朦胧胧的梦,在宜昌人心中困扰徘徊了很久以后,终于在本报的“介入”之下,变成了事实。 “监”在先,选准披露契机 在宜昌乃至全国,“失车”现象几乎日夜都有发生。据查,在我市284户居民中,1993、1994两年... 让丢失的自行车回家,这象一个朦朦胧胧的梦,在宜昌人心中困扰徘徊了很久以后,终于在本报的“介入”之下,变成了事实。 “监”在先,选准披露契机 在宜昌乃至全国,“失车”现象几乎日夜都有发生。据查,在我市284户居民中,1993、1994两年有失车史的家庭为74%,一个丢失自行车最多的家庭,一年竟高达12部,对这极普遍而严峻的现象。公安机关由于警力少、大案多等原因所限,而表现为“无可奈何”;对于车贼,也因并非惯偷,一二辆自行车立不了案难作处罚,所以越偷胆越大;而深受失车之苦的市民,一方面对这种瘟疫般蔓延的偷车风啧有烦言,一方面则因无法根治表现出一种“无可奈何”的“大度”——失车不报案(他们说报了白报)、对车贼不管不睬,等等,从而造成“失车”现象的恶性循环。 展开更多
关键词 自行车失窃 舆论监督 系列报道 《三峡晚报》 市民 青年志愿者 安机关 “自行车” 问卷调查 治安问题
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自行车骑快才稳
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作者 肖文俊 王镜宇 《管理工程师》 2001年第4期15-15,共1页
人是企业中具有思维能力的财产,有独立性和活跃性. 要留住该留的,放走该走的.人才的自由流动是市场经济的必然要求,员工的解雇与辞职不足为怪.我们提倡人员的适当流动,而人才的过度流失,则被认为是管理失误的表现.
关键词 企业 人才 学习型组织 “自行车”原理
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发挥新闻舆论监督的整体效应——《三峡晚报》“自行车失窃”系列报道的探索与思考
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作者 孙春兰 《新闻前哨》 1995年第4期11-13,共3页
让丢失的自行车回家,这像是一个梦,然而在《三峡晚报》的“介入”下,许多宜昌人的好梦成了真.“自行车失窃”系列报道,从3月开始,这组历时38天,发各类稿件54篇(幅)的“热点”、“难点”、敏感题材的报道,在领导和群众两个层面上都得了高... 让丢失的自行车回家,这像是一个梦,然而在《三峡晚报》的“介入”下,许多宜昌人的好梦成了真.“自行车失窃”系列报道,从3月开始,这组历时38天,发各类稿件54篇(幅)的“热点”、“难点”、敏感题材的报道,在领导和群众两个层面上都得了高分:市委副书记万久才说:“这样的宣传很好,一方面反映了广大群众的呼声,另一方面也能促使我们有关部门加强管理,把工作搞上去”.市民们则评价说:没有三峡晚报对自行车问题的系列报道,就没有“献一片爱心——让失车回家”活动的感人场面;三峡晚报把市民家庭中的失车问题搬上党报,足见其为群众办实事的情真意切. 展开更多
关键词 新闻舆论监督 《三峡晚报》 自行车失窃 整体效应 系列报道 管理部门 公安干警 “自行车” 系统工程 难点
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自行车:撞到电线杆上的自行车
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作者 NanaoKawaoka 张静秋 《数码设计》 2005年第02M期54-57,共4页
用钢体动力学和IK Booster制作冲撞表现。鲍勃因为急着去赴女友的约会,骑着自行车飞快地在路上跑着。突然,前方出现了一根电线杆,也许是因为自行车的刹车器出了故障,也许是因为自行车的某个零件坏了,鲍勃躲闪不及,连人带车“咣”... 用钢体动力学和IK Booster制作冲撞表现。鲍勃因为急着去赴女友的约会,骑着自行车飞快地在路上跑着。突然,前方出现了一根电线杆,也许是因为自行车的刹车器出了故障,也许是因为自行车的某个零件坏了,鲍勃躲闪不及,连人带车“咣”地一声撞在电线杆上!远处传来了救护车的警笛声,鲍勃为此在医院里住了好几天。 展开更多
关键词 计算机动画 制作 “自行车” 钢体动力学
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金融风险有关情况综述 被引量:5
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作者 魏加宁 《经济研究参考》 1998年第10期2-13,共12页
一、有关金融风险的定义 金融风险作为金融市场和金融活动的内在属性已经为人们所普遍接受,但是,在理论上有关金融风险的确切定义尚存争议。有人将金融风险与不确定性相联系,认为某种金融产品或金融活动的风险由其收益的不确定性来决定... 一、有关金融风险的定义 金融风险作为金融市场和金融活动的内在属性已经为人们所普遍接受,但是,在理论上有关金融风险的确切定义尚存争议。有人将金融风险与不确定性相联系,认为某种金融产品或金融活动的风险由其收益的不确定性来决定;也有人把金融风险与可能带来的不利后果相联系。 展开更多
关键词 金融风险 金融自由化 “泡沫经济” 金融危机 “自行车” 股市 储蓄存款 金融机构 实际利率 信用社
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“自行车理论”——构建企业“双循环”运行机制
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作者 张振林 《前沿》 2003年第9期54-56,共3页
企业的生存和发展要建立以市场需求为导向 ,企业与社会之间的“外循环”运行机制和以企业目标为导向 ,企业内部的“内循环”运行机制。企业“双循环”运行机制类似自行车的运行机理 ,为此 ,我们称之为“自行车理论”。
关键词 仓业 “自行车理论” “外循环”运行机制 “内循环”运行机制
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“自行车模型”与“运营标杆”
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作者 姜汝祥 《中国电力企业管理》 2003年第2期13-16,共4页
一个世界级水平企业的标志是什么?世界级优秀公司是如何做的?我们从这些世界级优秀公司的做法中能学到什么?
关键词 企业 持续发展 制度系统 运营系统 “自行车模型” “运营杠杆”
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如何建立档案题名自动标引与同义词典库
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作者 刘文萍 《浙江档案》 北大核心 1996年第9期41-42,共2页
关键词 自动标引 同义词典 标引系统 档案信息 机构名称 关键词标引 民国时期 管理系统 人工干预 “自行车”
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东亚地区自由贸易协定中的轮轴效应及中国应对 被引量:1
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作者 马野青 杨禛彦 《中大管理研究》 CSSCI 2013年第4期1-14,共14页
近年来随着区域经济一体化的发展,双边和诸边自由贸易协定不断增多,全球贸易网络日益复杂。鲍德温(Baldwin)在2003年提出东亚地区在未来50年内可能形成以中国和日本为轮轴国,其他国家为辐条国的"自行车"网络贸易模式。本文首先利用... 近年来随着区域经济一体化的发展,双边和诸边自由贸易协定不断增多,全球贸易网络日益复杂。鲍德温(Baldwin)在2003年提出东亚地区在未来50年内可能形成以中国和日本为轮轴国,其他国家为辐条国的"自行车"网络贸易模式。本文首先利用扩展的引力方程证实了东亚地区确实存在区内贸易的偏好,又通过对东亚主要国家之间以及东亚主要国家与世界主要地区之间的HM指数对比分析,验证"自行车模式"形成的原因,指出中国应积极巩固自身的轮轴国地位,逐渐构建东亚自由贸易区,而上海自由贸易区建设对此具有积极意义。 展开更多
关键词 自由贸易协定 “自行车模式” 东亚经济一体化 HM指数
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谈谈普通话词汇的规范问题 被引量:1
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作者 李也立 《东疆学刊》 1995年第3期40-41,共2页
关键词 普通话 外来词语 词汇规范化 方言词语 “自行车” 推广普通话 山东方言 语言交际 音译外来词 任意拼凑
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鸟“坐”在树枝上“哭”
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作者 云海 《汉语学习》 1980年第4期39-39,共1页
我听到有的朝鲜族同志说:“鸟‘坐’在树枝上‘哭’”。这种奇怪的句子是怎样产生的呢?原来他们是习惯于先用朝鲜语思维,然后经过一番直译过程,才把汉语说出来的。朝鲜语的,直译过来,就是“鸟坐”;直译过来,就是“鸟哭”。 “坐”在汉语... 我听到有的朝鲜族同志说:“鸟‘坐’在树枝上‘哭’”。这种奇怪的句子是怎样产生的呢?原来他们是习惯于先用朝鲜语思维,然后经过一番直译过程,才把汉语说出来的。朝鲜语的,直译过来,就是“鸟坐”;直译过来,就是“鸟哭”。 “坐”在汉语里,是把臂部放在椅子、凳子或其他物体上支持身体重量的动作,至于鸟只能说“落(或歇)”在树枝上,不能说“坐”在树枝上,“哭”是因痛苦而流泪,有时还发出声音的动作。至于鸟,只能说“叫(或鸣)”,而绝不能用“哭”。 同样,有人说:“狗坐在地上”。在汉语里,动物用前爪(或蹄)和臂部支持着身体重量不能说“坐”,而要说“蹲”,所以只能说“狗蹲在地上。” 还有人由“坐火车”类推出“坐自行车”“坐马”。对于“自行车”、“马”,汉语里要说“骑”,而不能说“坐”。 展开更多
关键词 树枝 学习汉语 臂部 朝鲜语 “自行车” 前爪 坐火车 发出声音 动物用 朝鲜族
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Analysis and Comparison of Safety and Fatigue Comfort of Postal Bicycles Based on Finite Element Method and sEMG 被引量:5
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作者 项忠霞 李亚南 +1 位作者 田冠 常振元 《Transactions of Tianjin University》 EI CAS 2013年第4期272-278,共7页
The safety and the fatigue comfort were compared between a domestic and a Japanese postal bicycle. Firstly, the fatigue comfort of these two kinds of bicycles was evaluated by surface electromyographic signal (sEMG) e... The safety and the fatigue comfort were compared between a domestic and a Japanese postal bicycle. Firstly, the fatigue comfort of these two kinds of bicycles was evaluated by surface electromyographic signal (sEMG) experiment, in which human lower limb muscle groups were research objects, and the average EMG (AEMG) index and median frequency (MF) were chosen as the evaluation indexes. Secondly, the safety of these two kinds of bicycle frames was analyzed and compared by using the finite element analysis. The results show that the riding fatigue comfort of the Japanese postal bicycle is better, and the Japanese postal bicycle frame is more safe and reasonable although both the postal bicycles meet the requirement for strength. Finally, based on the above analysis, the frame structure and related parameters of the domestic postal bicycle were improved with reference to the Japanese postal bicycle and biomechanics theory. 展开更多
关键词 postal bicycle surface electromyogram signal evaluation index fatigue comfort finite element analysis
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Allocation optimization of bicycle-sharing stations at scenic spots 被引量:5
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作者 郭唐仪 张平 +1 位作者 邵飞 刘英舜 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第8期3396-3403,共8页
Bicycle-sharing system is considered as a green option to provide a better connection between scenic spots and nearby metro/bus stations. Allocating and optimizing the layout of bicycle-sharing system inside the sceni... Bicycle-sharing system is considered as a green option to provide a better connection between scenic spots and nearby metro/bus stations. Allocating and optimizing the layout of bicycle-sharing system inside the scenic spot and around its influencing area are focused on. It is found that the terrain, land use, nearby transport network and scenery point distribution have significant impact on the allocation of bicycle-sharing system. While the candidate bicycle-sharing stations installed at the inner scenic points, entrances/exits and metro stations are fixed, the ones installed at bus-stations and other passenger concentration buildings are adjustable. Aiming at minimizing the total cycling distance and overlapping rate, an optimization model is proposed and solved based on the idea of cluster concept and greedy heuristic. A revealed preference/stated preference (RP/SP) combined survey was conducted at Xuanwu Lake in Nanjing, China, to get an insight into the touring trip characteristics and bicycle-sharing tendency. The results reveal that 39.81% visitors accept a cycling distance of 1-3 km and 62.50% respondents think that the bicycle-sharing system should charge an appropriate fee. The sttrvey indicates that there is high possibility to carry out a bicycle-sharing system at Xuanwu Lake. Optimizing the allocation problem cluster by cluster rather than using an exhaustive search method significantly reduces the computing amount from O(2^43) to O(43 2). The 500 m-radius-coverage rate for the alternative optimized by 500 m-radius-cluster and 800 m-radius-cluster is 89.2% and 68.5%, respectively. The final layout scheme will provide decision makers engineering guidelines and theoretical support. 展开更多
关键词 bicycle-sharing allocation optimization scenic spot CLUSTER
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Load on Bicycle Frame During Cycling with Different Speeds and Gestures 被引量:2
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作者 项忠霞 田冠 +2 位作者 许文 关新 于晓然 《Transactions of Tianjin University》 EI CAS 2011年第4期270-274,共5页
Experiment and dynamic simulation were combined to obtain the loads on bicycle frame. A dynamic model of body-bicycle system was built in ADAMS. Then the body gestures under different riding conditions were captured b... Experiment and dynamic simulation were combined to obtain the loads on bicycle frame. A dynamic model of body-bicycle system was built in ADAMS. Then the body gestures under different riding conditions were captured by a motion analysis system. Dynamic simulation was carried out after the data of body motions were input into the simulation system in ADAMS and a series of loads that the body applied on head tube, seat pillar and bottom bracket were obtained. The results show that the loads on flame and their distribution are apparently different under various riding conditions. Finally, finite element analysis was done in ANSYS, which showed that the stress and its distribution on frame were apparently different when the flame was loaded according to the bicycle testing standard and simulation respectively. An efficient way to obtain load on bicycle flame accurately was proposed, which is sig- nificant for the safety of cycling and will also be the basis for the bicycle design of digitalization, lightening and cus- tomization. 展开更多
关键词 BICYCLE load of frame gesture capturing dynamic simulation
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Influence of age in estimating maximal oxygen uptake 被引量:2
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作者 Christina G de Souza Silva Barry A Franklin +1 位作者 Daniel E Forman Claudio Gil S Araujo 《Journal of Geriatric Cardiology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第2期126-131,共6页
Objective To assess the influence of age on the error of estimate (EE) of maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) using sex and population specific-equations in cycle ergometer exercise testing, since estimated VO2 max is ... Objective To assess the influence of age on the error of estimate (EE) of maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) using sex and population specific-equations in cycle ergometer exercise testing, since estimated VO2 max is associated with a substantial EE, often exceeding 20%, possibly due to intrinsic variability of mechanical efficiency. Methods 1850 adults (68% men), aged 18 to 91 years, underwent maximal cycle ergometer cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) was assessed relative to sex and age [younger (18 to 35 years), middle-aged (36 to 60 years) and older (〉 60 years)]. VO2max [mL.(kg.min)-1] was directly measured by assessment of gas exchange and estimated using sex and population specific-equations. Measured and estimated values of VO2max and related EE were compared among the three age- and sex-specific groups. Results Directly measured VO2max of men and women were 29.5 ± 10.5 mL.(kg.min)-1 and 24.2 ± 9.0 mL.(kg·min) -1 (P 〈 0.01). EE [mL·(kg·min)-1] and percent errors (%E) for men and women had similar values, 0.5 ± 3.2 and 0.4 ± 2.9 mL·(kg·min)-1, and -0.8 ± 13.1% and -1.7 ± 15.4% (P 〉 0.05), respectively. EE and %E for each age-group were, respectively, for men: younger = 1.9 ± 4.1 mL·(kg·min)-1 and 3.8 ± 10.5%, middle-aged = 0.6 ± 3.1 mL.(kg·min)-1 and 0.4 ± 10.3%, older = -0.2 ± 2.7 mL·(kg·min) -1 and -4.2 ± 16.6% (P 〈 0.01); and for women: younger = 1.2 ± 3.1 mL.(kg.min)-1 and 2.7 ±10.0%, middle-aged = 0.7 ± 2.8 mL·(kg·min)-1 and 0.5 ± 11.1%, older = -0.8 ± 2.3 mL-(kg·min)-1 and -9.5 ± 22.4% (P 〈 0.01). Conclusion VO2max were underestimated in younger age-groups and were overestimated in older age groups. Age significantly influences the magnitude of the EE of VO2max in both men and women and should be considered when CRF is estimated using population specific equations, rather than directly measured. 展开更多
关键词 AGING Cardiopulmonary exercise testing Error of measurement
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Optimal Design of Mountain Bicycle Based on Biomechanics 被引量:1
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作者 卜研 黄田 +2 位作者 项忠霞 吴小凡 陈春 《Transactions of Tianjin University》 EI CAS 2010年第1期45-49,共5页
To achieve better cycling performance and vibration comfort of mountain bicycle, the optimization of frame structural parameters and rear suspension scale parameters is investigated based on biomechanics.Firstly, the ... To achieve better cycling performance and vibration comfort of mountain bicycle, the optimization of frame structural parameters and rear suspension scale parameters is investigated based on biomechanics.Firstly, the quadratic sum of rider lower limb muscles stresses is presented as the evaluation criterion of muscle fatigue.By taking the criterion as the objective function, the relative positions of three pivot points of frame are optimized to ensure that the frame structural parameters match the stature o... 展开更多
关键词 mountain bicycle BIOMECHANICS muscle fatigue vibration comfort optimum design
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Analysis of bicyclist-vehicle crash at intersection area considering behavior prior to crash:A random parameter ordinal probit approach 被引量:1
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作者 Yuan Fang Yang Zhen 《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2021年第1期91-97,共7页
In order to analyze the risky factors that affect vehicle-cyclist crash injury severity at the intersection area,especially the factors relating to the road users behaviors,an empirical study was conducted by collecti... In order to analyze the risky factors that affect vehicle-cyclist crash injury severity at the intersection area,especially the factors relating to the road users behaviors,an empirical study was conducted by collecting accident records from 2011 to 2015 from the General Estimates System.After preliminary screening,the variables were classified into 5 main categories including cyclists characteristic and behavior,drivers characteristic and behavior,vehicle characteristic,intersection condition,and time.The random parameter ordinal probit(RPOP)was used to study the significant influencing factors and corresponding heterogeneity.The results show that failing to obey traffic signals,failing to yield to right-of-way,dash and drinking before cycling can increase the injury severity for cyclists,and the corresponding fatal injury likelihoods increase by 53.2%,40.0%,86.3%,and 211.5%,respectively.Moreover,drivers inattention,speeding,going straight and left turning increase the risk of crashing for cyclists.The corresponding fatal injury likelihoods increase by 134.5%,186.5%,69.3%,and 22.7%,respectively.Other indicators such as age,gender,vehicle type,traffic signal and intersection type can also affect injury severity. 展开更多
关键词 traffic safety injury severity cyclist crash INTERSECTION random parameter ordinal probit(RPOP)
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Graph Description by the Chromatic Polynomials 被引量:1
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作者 MA Hai-cheng LIU Hui-min ZHANG Hai-liang 《Chinese Quarterly Journal of Mathematics》 CSCD 2009年第1期46-52,共7页
By means of the chromatic polynomials, this paper provided a necessary and sufficient condition for the graph G being a mono-cycle graph(the Theorem 1), a first class hi-cycle graph and a second class bicycle graph... By means of the chromatic polynomials, this paper provided a necessary and sufficient condition for the graph G being a mono-cycle graph(the Theorem 1), a first class hi-cycle graph and a second class bicycle graph(the Theorem 2), respectively. 展开更多
关键词 mono-cycle graph bi-cycle graph chromatic polynomial chromatic equivalence
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Unpowered Knee Exoskeleton Reduces Quadriceps Activity during Cycling 被引量:4
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作者 Ronnapee Chaichaowarat Jun Kinugawa Kazuhiro Kosuge 《Engineering》 2018年第4期471-478,共8页
Cycling is an eco-friendly method of transport and recreation. With the intent of reducing the energy cost of cycling without providing an additional energy source, we have proposed the use of a torsion spring for kne... Cycling is an eco-friendly method of transport and recreation. With the intent of reducing the energy cost of cycling without providing an additional energy source, we have proposed the use of a torsion spring for knee-extension support. We developed an exoskeleton prototype using a crossing four-bar mechanism as a knee joint with an embedded torsion spring. This study evaluates the passive knee exoskeleton using constant-power cycling tests performed by eight healthy male participants. We recorded the surface electromyography over the rectus femoris muscles of both legs, while the participants cycled at 200 and 225 W on a trainer with the developed wheel-accelerating system. We then analyzed these data in time-frequency via a continuous wavelet transform. At the same cycling speed and leg cadence, the median power spectral frequency of the electromyography increases with cycling load. At the same cycling load, the median power spectral frequency decreases when cycling with the exoskeleton. Quadriceps activity can be relieved despite the exoskeleton consuming no electrical energy and not delivering net-positive mechanical work. This fundamental can be applied to the further development of wearable devices for cycling assistance. 展开更多
关键词 Augmentation CYCLING Energy cost Electromyography EXOSKELETON KNEE ORTHOSIS Muscle activity
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