社会稳定风险评估中的“自风险”问题及破解策略

当前我国社会稳定风险评估制度日趋成熟，但对于该项评估制度之评估却鲜有研究，其评估所依据的数据来源是否准确、评估过程是否规范、评估对象是否恰当、评估主体是否专业、评估结果是否可信等，均有可能导致评估本身出现一定的“自风险”问题，即评估风险的风险。因此，厘清诱发“自风险”的关键要素，明晰其生成机理，寻求针对性的破解策略，具有极为重要的现实意义。可以从人评＋数评，搭建风险数据整合应用平台；完善评估环节，加强社会监督；明确评估对象标准，区分事项与方案；决策＋献策，构建多元主体协同评估模式；从重视风险等级判定转向重视风险沟通，健全自风险化解机制等方面入手，进一步保证评估过程的合理性，增强评估结果的科学性。

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF A TYPE OF FINANCIAL RISK CONTAGION MODEL INVOLVING IMMUNITY PERIOD AND SELF-RESCUE

In this paper,we study the dynamics of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered(SEIR)nancial risk contagion model with time delay.Using stability theory and Hopf bifurcation theory,equilibria stability and Hopf bifurcation are analyzed in detail.Based on the epidemic model,we improve it by taking prior prevention and self-rescue into consideration,conclude pre-ventive intensity and self-rescue capabilities e ect the number of infections.At the same time,the analytical conditions for Hopf bifurcation are obtained,and the relevant results are veri ed by numerical simulations.

Systems for Hazards Identification in High Mountain Areas: An Example from the Kullu District, Western Himalaya

Methods and techniques for the identification, monitoring and management of natural hazards in high mountain areas are enumerated and described. A case study from the western Himalayan Kullu District in Himachal Pradesh, India is used to illustrate some of the methods. Research on the general topic has been conducted over three decades and that in the Kullu District has been carried out since 1994. Early methods of hazards identification in high mountain areas involved intensive and lengthy fieldwork and mapping with primary reliance on interpretation of landforms, sediments and vegetation thought to be indicative of slope failures, rock falls, debris flows, floods and accelerated soil surface erosion. Augmented by the use of airphotos and ad hoc observations of specific events over time, these methods resulted in the gradual accumulation of information on hazardous sites and the beginnings of a chronology of occurrences in an area. The use of historical methods applied to written and photographic material, often held in archives and libraries, further improved the resolution of hazards information. In the past two decades, both the need for, and the ability to, accurately identify potential hazards have increased. The need for accurate information and monitoring comes about as a result of rapid growth in population, settlements, transportation infrastructure and intensified land uses and, therefore, risk and vulnerability in mountain areas. Ability has improved as the traditional methods of gathering and manipulating data have been supplemented by the use of remote sensing, automated terrain modeling, global positioning systems and geographical information systems. This paper focuses on the development and application of the latter methods and techniques to characterize and monitor hazards in high mountain areas.

Analysis of explosion risk factor potential on coal reclaim tunnel facilities by modified analytical hierarchy process

This study focused on developing a risk assessment method for explosion at a coal reclaim tunnel （CRT） facility. The method was developed based on an analytical hierarchy process （AHP）, which is an expert system that quantifies the factors of explosion incidents, based on events and hierarchies. In this paper, the proposed model was modification from original AHP model, specifically modifying the structure from ＂alternative＇s results＂ to ＂total risk-rating＇s results＂. The total risk-rating is obtained by summing up risk-rating of each factor, where the risk-rating is a multiplication product of the risk value by the AHP weighted value. To support decision-making using the expert system, data on the real conditions of the CRT were collected and analyzed. A physical modeling of the CRT with laboratory-scale experiments was carried out to show the impact of a ventilation system in CRT on diluting the methane gas and coal dust, in order to support the quantification of AHP risk value. The criteria to evaluate the risk of explosion was constructed from six components that are： fuel, oxygen, ignition, confinement, dispersion, and monitoring system. Those components had fifty-two factors that serve as sub-components （root causes）. The main causes of explosion in CRT were found to be： mechanical ventilation failure and abnormal ventilation, breakdown of monitoring system, and coal spontaneous-combustion. Assessments of two CRT facilities at Mine A and Mine B were carried out as a case study in order to check the reliability of the developed AHP method. The results showed that the risk rating of Mine A was classified as high and Mine B was classified as medium, which is in a good agreement with the site conditions.

Patient and physician perception of natural orifice transluminal endoscopic appendectomy

AIM:To investigate perception of natural orifice transluminal endoscopic surgery(NOTES)as a potential technique for appendectomy.METHODS:One hundred patients undergoing endoscopy and 100 physicians were given a questionnaire describing in detail the techniques of NOTES and laparoscopic appendectomy.They were asked about the reasons for their preference,choice of orifice,and extent of complication risk they were willing to accept.RESULTS:Fifty patients(50%)and only 21 physicians(21%)preferred NOTES(P<0.001).Patients had previously heard of NOTES less frequently(7%vs73%,P<0.001)and had undergone endoscopy more frequently(88%vs 36%,P<0.001)than physicians.Absence of hernia was the most common reason for NOTES preference in physicians(80%vs 44%,P= 0.003),whereas reduced pain was the most common reason in patients(66%vs 52%).Physicians were more likely to refuse NOTES as a novel and unsure technique(P<0.001)and having an increased risk of infection(P<0.001).The preferred access site in both groups was colon followed by stomach,with vagina being rarely preferred.In multivariable modeling,those with high-school education[odds ratio(OR):2.68,95% confidence interval(CI):1.23-5.83]and prior colonoscopy(OR:2.10,95%CI:1.05-4.19)were more likely to prefer NOTES over laparoscopic appendectomy.There was a steep decline in NOTES preference with increased rate of procedural complications.Male patients were more likely to consent to their wives vaginal NOTES appendectomy than male physicians(P=0.02).CONCLUSION:The preference of NOTES for appendectomy was greater in patients than physicians and was related to reduced pain and absence of hernia rather than lack of scarring.

Measuring Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,China

Social vulnerability in this study represents the differences between the capacity to cope with natural hazards and disaster losses suffered within and between places.The assessment of social vulnerability has been recognized as a critical step in understanding natural hazard risks and enhancing effective response capabilities.This article presents an initial study of the social vulnerability of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(B-T-H) Region in China.The goal is to replicate and test the applicability of the United States Social Vulnerability Index(So VI) method in a Chinese cultural context.Thirty-nine variables adapted from the So VI were collected in relation to two aspects:socioeconomic vulnerability and built environment vulnerability.Using factor analysis,seven factors were extracted from the variable set:the structure of social development,the level of economic and government financial strength,social justice and poverty,family structure,the intensity of space development,the status of residential housing and transportation,and building structure.Factor scores were summed to get the final So VI scores and the most and least vulnerable units were identified and mapped.The highest social vulnerability is concentrated in the northwest of the study area.The least socially vulnerable areas are mainly distributed in the Beijing,Tianjin and Shijiazhuang core urban peripheral and central city areas of the prefecture-level cities.The results show that this method is a useful tool for revealing places that have a high level of vulnerability,in other words,areas which are more likely to face significant challenges in coping with a large-scale event.These findings could provide a scientific basis for policy making and the implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation in China.

Implementation of Action Research to Challenge Poverty of Local Communities in Forest Protection Area

Forest land including forest protection areas in Indonesia have been degraded due to poverty of local communities who live in the surrounding areas. They tend to destroy the forest and are less attentive to forest conservation causing conflict between local community and government. Forest protection areas are very fragile and at risk from natural disaster, mainly in small islands. Natural resources management in small islands needs to be done properly. Therefore, a research has been done for local communities in the Gunung Sirimau forest protection area, Ambon, with objectives to increase income in local communities and knowledge of forest conservation. This study used the action research method. The results of this study showed that income of local communities in three demplots increased by IDR 3,966,000 （in cycle 1）, IDR 20,107,000 （in cycle 2） and IDR 25,897,000 （in cycle 3）. Unfortunately, their knowledge regarding forest conservation and tree maintenance, both in theory and practice is still low. A lot of effort is needed to increase their knowledge in the next action research. The effort to increase income of local communities and its knowledge of forest conservation should be done step by step. If their knowledge is sufficient, promotion of the environmental service of forest protection areas through carbon trade implementation can be carried out.

Children＇s Problem Behaviors During Free Time as an Incentive for the Increase in Social Risks and Health Risks

Since children, as a rule, have more free time than adults, it is adults＇ responsibility to provide children with a chance to spend the time of relaxation, play, and fun in a beneficial way. Unfortunately, children＇s spare time is nowadays very frequently organized for the sake of brushing up children＇s knowledge, skills, and competences, which is accomplished by means of escalating extra-curriculum activities. When expressed by teacher and parents, these ambition-related attitudes pave the way for the disappearance of children＇s personal interests and motivations to perform complicated tasks which are perceived as unwanted or obscure by the affected children themselves. This form of adults＇ behavior may lead to the feelings of frustration, stress, demotivation, or rebellion on behalf of their children. The said emotional states, especially in relation to the lack of spontaneous play, give rise to serious psychic dysfunctions, and the instability of children＇s psychic balance. It may also pave the way for various forms of destructive behavior that mostly characterize children of younger school age who are about to start schooling.

Empirical Evidence of Natural Shocks, Risk Perceptions and Resilience from Cameroon

Invariably, it is the poorest of the poor who are mostly affected by perverse disasters, policies and laws. A major concern in disaster research is to explore the relationship between shock experiences and victims＇ perceptions of risk, as well as their possible effect on victims＇ behavior for resilience and adaptation. We explore this relationship on victimized households of the 1986 Lake Nyos disaster, employing a quasi-experimental design. Matching was done with non-affected households. Both groups affected and non-affected households were of adequate size, and subject to the same questionnaire. Selection of （470） test and matching households was purposely limited to nine of the ten towns accommodating both survivors and non survivors of the examined disaster. A list constructed with traditional rulers in each village allowed for random sampling of non victims for comparative analysis. We then compare households affected by the disaster with those who were not. The results reveal differentiated perceptions of risk and management behavior contingent on whether households experienced the shock or not. However, solidarity and reciprocity remained extremely high and not significantly different amongst both household types, suggesting resilience of endogenous, informal risk response mechanisms to natural shocks. The article concludes that analyzing risk perceptions can help explain why some individuals, households or communities may be resilient to shocks and others not. We argue for a combination of subjective perceptions and objective shock analysis, especially if the analyst hopes to influence policy.

Successful Delivery of Infrastructural Projects： Epistemic Overview of Cost Risk and Uncertainties

The process of decision making and risk analysis are essential tasks along the construction project cycle. Over the years, construction practitioners and researchers have used various methods, tools and techniques to evaluate risk and assist in making more concise decisions. Most practitioners, however, rely on their expert judgment, past experience, intuition, acquired and accumulated knowledge and gut feelings to make decisions. Aleatory （natural, heterogeneity and stochasticity） and epistemic （subjective, ignorance） are the two major types of uncertainties observed in natural sciences. Practitioners traditionally deal with aleatory uncertainty through probabilistic analysis based on historical data （frequentist approach）; and epistemic uncertainty, on the other hand, handled through the Bayesian approach which has limitations since it requires a priori assumption. This paper reports the application of the DST （Dempster Shafer Theory） of evidence to determine the most critical risk factors affecting project cost contingencies using their epistemic probabilities of occurrence. The paper further discuses how these factors can be managed to enhance successful delivery of infrastructural projects. It uses the mixed methodology, with data gathered through structured questionnaires distributed to construction clients, contractors, professionals and experts in the built environment. The research revealed that design risk, financial risk and economic risk were most important cost risk categorizations. In particular, scope changes, incomplete scope definition, incomplete design, changes in specification, micro and macroeconomic indicators and delayed payment problems were identified as the most important risk factors to be considered during the cost contingency estimation process, hence successful delivery of infrastructural projects. The paper concludes by recommending modalities for managing the contingency evolution process of risk estimation to enhance successful delivery and management of infrastructural projects.

Integrative Planning and Processes in the Mountain Areas of Mae Hong Son, Thailand

This paper outlines innovative integrative approaches for poverty alleviation based on integrating planning and processes; crossing disciplines and sectors; combining community perception with spatial technology; and creating alliances between community and government agencies. Several tools of development models from Participatory Rural Appraisal （PRA） and 3D Mapping Model programs were applied in the planning model to demonstrate a diversity of integrated development and conservation activities, The planning model was launched with a PRA process evolved a simple community map. The map allowed for the community＇s constraints and potential and related issues to be identified and analyzed by different groups. This initiative was followed by a 3D Mapping Model program, which involved the building of a topographic map. Community＇s resources and landmarks and other meaningful landmarks and data were added. These processes allowed an opportunity for creating a historical timeline, assessing the present and mapping the future of community resources. The planning model serves as a meeting point to support and enhance decentralized governance by providing centrality to the needs and decisions of local communities to improve their quality of life. This has been seen through the adoption of natural resources conservation campaigns by local communities, which include the participation of women, displaced people, ~rassroots organizations, and ~overnment a^encies.

Research on the Relationship between New Risk Factors and Traditional Risk Factors and Its Interaction with Natural Disasters： A Case Study between Population Urbanization and Natural Disasters in County-Level Administrative Units in China

Traditional risk factors fall into four categories： natural disasters, public health, accidents during production and social security. The four types of risks are called as public safety issues by the government of China. New risk factors are the ones that are connected to human discoveries and more attention to them, which is called locking risk. What is more, such risk factors will continue to emerge with the development of human society. Currently, traditional risk factors have not been eliminated, while new risks have emerged gradually. There are countless relations between new risks and global climatic changes. Therefore, figuring out the relationship between new risks, global climatic changes as well as natural disasters is of great importance. This study takes China as an example. The population data at county level in China in 1991, 2000 and 2009 （including rural population, urban population and total population of three） were selected. By calculating the urbanization rate of the population, the rate of urbanization at county level in China in three years was drawn. And it is superimposed with the disaster zoning in China to analyze the correlation between population changes and natural disasters and reveal the magnitude of disaster effects caused by population urbanization. It can provide the basis for the disaster chain risk assessment under the gnidanee of the regional law of China＇s natural disaster chain and lay the foundation for the study of the relationship between new risk factors and traditional risk factors. So, risks governance can be perfectly combined with developing the green economy during the development of human society, and ultimately, the goal of harmony between human and nature can be achieved.

Quantitative Assessment and Spatial Characteristics of Agricultural Drought Risk in the Jinghe Watershed, Northwestern China

Though drought is a recurrent phenomenon in the Jinghe watershed, very little attention has been paid to drought mitigation and preparedness. This article presents a method for the spatial assessment of agricultural drought risk in the Jinghe watershed of western China at a 1-km grid scale. A conceptual framework, which emphasizes the combined roles of hazard and vulnerability in defining risk, is used. The Z index method in a GIS environment is used to map the spatial extent of drought hazards. The key social and physical factors that define agricultural drought in the context of the Jinghe watershed are indentified and corresponding thematic maps are prepared. Risk is calculated by the integration of hazard and vulnerability. Results show that the risk gradient follows a north-south and west-east tendency and that agricultural droughts pose the highest risk to northern and northwestern sections of the Jinghe watershed.

The Role of Knowledge in Disaster Risk Reduction

Disaster risk reduction policy and practice require knowledge for informed decision making and coordinated action. Although the knowledge production and implementation processes are critical for disaster risk reduction, these issues are seldom systematically addressed in-depth in disaster studies and policy programs. While efforts and improvements have been made with regard to data and information, only limited resources are committed to improving knowledge management structures and integrating knowledge systems at different spatial levels. The recently adopted Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 addresses knowledge-related issues and provides the opportunity to highlight the critical role of knowledge in disaster risk reduction. This article presents insights into potential conceptualizations of knowledge that would advance disaster research and policy. We use cases from France to illustrate challenges of and pathways to disaster risk reduction. We suggest to further strengthen efforts that improve our understanding of the connections between disaster risk, knowledge, and learning. A better integration of multiple scales, different societal actors,various knowledge sources, and diverse disciplines into disaster risk research will increase its relevance for decision-makers in policy and practice. Well-targeted incentives and political backing will improve the coherence,coordination, and sharing of knowledge among various actors and arenas.

Operationalizing Iterative Risk Management under Limited Information:Fiscal and Economic Risks Due to Natural Disasters in Cambodia

Iterative risk management and risk-sensitive public investment planning are increasingly seen as essential elements of natural disaster resilience. This article assesses the disaster risk facing the hazard-prone Southeast Asian country of Cambodia and discusses its fiscal preparedness and need for proactive disaster risk management.The study provides a bottom-up assessment of flood and cyclone risks to public and private buildings including educational structures, health facilities, and housing and estimates the total direct economic damage to range from approximately USD 304 million for a 5-year return period event to USD 2.26 billion for a 1000-year return period event. These estimates were further analyzed using the fiscal risk due to disasters, which indicates that Cambodia will likely face a resource gap whenever a hazard as large as that of a 28-year return period event strikes. Given the frequent occurrence of disasters and rapid accumulation of capital assets taking place, proactive risk reduction is highly advisable. But interviews with national policymakers also revealed that there are a number of barriers to effective risk reduction and management in Cambodia. The general lack of awareness regarding risk-based concepts and the limited availability of local risk information necessitate a continued and sustained effort to build iterative risk management in Cambodia.

Adaptive quantile regression with precise risk bounds

An adaptive local smoothing method for nonpaxametric conditional quantile regression models is considered in this paper. Theoretical properties of the procedure are examined. The proposed method is fully adaptive in the sense that no prior information about the structure of the model is assumed. The fully adaptive feature not only allows varying bandwidths to accommodate jumps or instantaneous slope changes, but also al- lows the algorithm to be spatially adaptive. Under general conditions, precise risk bounds for homogeneous and heterogeneous cases of the underlying conditional quantile curves are established. An automatic selection algo- rithm for locally adaptive bandwidths is also given, which is applicable to higher dimensional cases. Simulation studies and data analysis confirm that the proposed methodology works well.

Binomial Tree Pricing Model of Convertible Bond with Default Risk

In this paper we use a binomial tree to price convertible bond with default risk. A new way about pricing convertible bonds is proposed, which belongs to the deduced form approach. Firstly an inhomogeneous Possion process is used to describe default event and definition of default time. Secondly we combine the stock binomial tree with default intensity and obtain a new tree, then convertible bonds are priced according to the combined tree. It is worth pointing out that the model have following characters： simple, intuitive and having the strong ability to combine other items in convertible bonds＇ indenture.

Spreading and vanishing in a West Nile virus model with expanding fronts

We study a simplified version of a West Nile virus （WNv） model discussed by Lewis et al. （2006）, which was considered as a first approximation for the spatial spread of WNv. The basic reproduction number R0 for the non-spatial epidemic model is defined and a threshold parameter RD for the corresponding problem with null Dirichlet boundary condition is introduced. We consider a free boundary problem with a coupled system, which describes the diffusion of birds by a PDE and the movement of mosquitoes by an ODE. The risk index R0^F（t） associated with the disease in spatial setting is represented. Sufficient conditions for the WNv to eradicate or to spread are given. The asymptotic behavior of the solution to the system when the spreading occurs is considered. It is shown that the initial number of infected populations, the diffusion rate of birds and the length of initial habitat exhibit important impacts on the vanishing or spreading of the virus. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the analytical results.