信用与“违约”行为的关系分析

信用交易常常导致交易者的信任损失。在具备履约能力基础上,“履约”意愿是交易者选择交易行为取向的主要因素。交易者选择“违约”行为所得到的一次性增量效用和长期性增量效用,可以弱化交易者选择信用的愿望;交易者“违约”可能受到的惩罚损失、可能的信用重构成本、以及获取增量效用的概率等因素,则是强化交易者选择信用的动力。对交易者“违约”行为的效用模型的分析表明:按照“违约”行为效用的影响因素确定交易者行为取向的方法,可能会优于按照交易者的信用记录判断其交易行为取向。

制度、信用与毕业生“违约”

又到了大学毕业生签约的季节,对大学生"违约"的担心也随之而来.如何看待"违约"?如何有效减少"违约"现象?本文认为,"违约"是毕业生的一种权利,但它将导致毕业生就业成本增加,同时导致个人信用的降低.

General dynamic model for educational assembling-type robot and its fast simulation algorithm

To realize automatic modeling and dynamic simulation of the educational assembling-type robot with open structure, a general dynamic model for the educational assembling-type robot and a fast simulation algorithm are put forward. First, the educational robot system is abstracted to a multibody system and a general dynamic model of the educational robot is constructed by the Newton-Euler method. Then the dynamic model is simplified by a combination of components with fixed connections according to the structural characteristics of the educational robot. Secondly, in order to obtain a high efficiency simulation algorithm, based on the sparse matrix technique, the augmentation algorithm and the direct projective constraint stabilization algorithm are improved. Finally, a numerical example is given. The results show that the model and the fast algorithm are valid and effective. This study lays a dynamic foundation for realizing the simulation platform of the educational robot.

Frame length optimization for multi-antenna downlink systems based on delay-bound violation probability constraints

A flame length optimization scheme is proposed for multi-antenna downlink systems to guarantee diverse delay- bound violation probability constraints. Due to the difficulties of extracting the quality of service （QoS） metrics from the conventional physical-layer channel models, the link-layer models named effective bandwidth and effective capacity are applied to statistically characterize the source traffic patterns and the queuing service dynamics. With these link-layer models, the source traffic process and the channel service process are mapped to certain QoS parameters. The packet delay-bound violation probability constraints are converted into minimum data rate constraints and the optimization problem is thus formulated into simultaneous inequalities. With the assumption of ergodic block-fading channels, the optimal frame lengths of single-user and multiuser systems are calculated respectively by numerical iterative methods. Theoretical analyses and simulation results show that the given delay-bound violation probability constraints are well satisfied with the optimal frame length.

Credit Default Swaps （CDSs） and Systemic Risks

The use of credit default swaps （CDSs） has become increasingly popular over time. Between 2002 and 2007, gross notional amounts outstanding grew from below S2 trillion to nearly S60 trillion. The recent crisis has revealed several shortcomings in CDS market practices and structure. In addition, management of counterparty risk has proved insufficient, as has in some instances the settlement of contracts following a credit event. However, past problems should not distract from the potential benefits of these instruments. In particular, CDSs help complete markets, as they provide an effective means to hedge and trade credit risk. CDSs allow financial institutions to better manage their exposures, and investors benefit from an enhanced investment universe. The purpose of this paper is to present a complete and practical exposition of the CDS market and to explore how the development of the CDS market has played an important role in the credit risk markets. Currently, the CDS market is transforming into a more stable system. Various measures are being put in place to help enhance market transparency and mitigate operational and systemic risk. In particular, central counterparties have started to operate, which will eventually lead to an improved management of individual as well as system-wide risks.

Shadow Banking Credit Intermediation： Determinants of Default Risks in Securitization and Collateralization

The growth in shadow banking system over the past few years is acknowledged as the key risk to Malaysia＇s financial stability. This is because that it is associated with growth in the household debts extended by the shadow banks. In line with initiatives by the Bank Negara Malaysia （the Central Bank of Malaysia） to enhance surveillance on the activities of the shadow banks in Malaysia, this study attempts to examine the determinants of default risks of shadow banks restricting to focus on their two main activities： securitization and collateralization. The results provide empirical evidence that future methodology to examine the systemic risks in the shadow banking system may need to account for additional explanatory variables that measure collateralized assets that are being intermediated.

Determination of Credit Risk Charges for Malaysian Life Insurance Industry： An Application of Default Probability

The objective of this paper is to measure the risk charge for credit risk as one of the components in the risk based capital of the capital adequacy framework. Currently, the risk charge for credit risk is measured by referring it to the credit rating of a company. Following the subprime crisis in 2007, the markets start to question the soundness of the credit rating issued as it has resulted in an inadequate risk charge. Therefore, this study attempts to determine the risk charge for credit risk using the probability of default （PD） for life insurers in Malaysia. The credit risk has been categorized into several types of debt obligations. Whereby, the KMV-Merton model has been used to measure the distance to default and estimate the probability of default. The estimation of default probability is based on the movement in the price index of several debt obligations. The price index of debt obligations from year 2004 to 2009 is collected inclusive of the subprime crisis period during the crisis period. Therefore, Malaysia insurance industry is The results found that the risk charges are lower not affected by the subprime crisis in 2007.

Risk-Neutral Dynamic of Forward-Looking Default Probabilities and Recovery Rates： Evidence From Credit Default Swap Prices of DOW30 Companies

In modem financial markets, the credit default swap （CDS） market has supplanted the bond market as the industry gauge for a borrower＇s credit quality. Therefore, it is very important to value CDS accurately by getting closer to more realistic pricing models. So far there have been no models for extracting forward-looking credit information to value CDS. In current practice, historical data is used in a credit default swap pricing model. One of the reasons was the difficulty when the market for credit derivatives was small, to extract forward-looking credit information such as recovery rates and default probabilities from traded securities. Since the CDS market has undergone rapid expansion in recent years, the possibilities of extracting forward-looking credit information have increased. Our work significantly extends Das and Hanouma （2009） where a flexible jump-to-default model was introduced to obtain implied recovery rates. We improve the flexible jump-to-default model where forecasted forward-looking hazard rates and recovery rates can be extracted using stock prices, stock volatilities and data from credit default markets to forecast CDS spreads. Instead of using exogenously assumed constant recovery rates and default probabilities from a credit rating agency, we use forward-looking hazard rates and recovery rates to price and forecast CDS spreads. We also compare out-of-sample market CDS spreads with our forecasted CDS spreads to check how well our model performs. Our model fit the market CDS spreads very well across all time to maturity CDS contracts except in some extreme cases when there is a big jump in CDS spreads.

Effects of R-parity Violation on the Charged Higgs Boson Decays

We calculate one-loop R-parity-violating coupling corrections to theprocesses H~- → τv_τ and H~- → bt. We find that the corrections to the H~- → τv_τ decay modeare generally about 0.1%, and can be negligible. But the corrections to the H~- → bt decay mode canreach a few percent for the favored parameters.

承租人优先购买权制度的解释论

关于承租人的优先购买权,学界颇有争议。在《民法典》仍然承认这一制度的背景下,需要在解释论上明确其制度目的。承租人优先购买权的核心,是对出卖人在租赁权届满之前出售房屋的“违约”风险设定负面激励。由于未能看到这一点,对承租人优先购买权的证成与证伪,都存在较大的逻辑漏洞和法律错谬。这种风险既非一般意义上的违约,亦非合同法上理想的合同履行,而是介于二者之间。承租人的优先购买权与“买卖不破租赁”相互配合,其本质必然是物权性质,但具有物权性质并不意味着必然能够对世,而是要满足其他条件。出租人侵害优先购买权,本质是违反了法定义务,损害赔偿之内核是法律所创设的惩戒,因此,其对承租人的赔偿应以未届满之租期的租金作为赔偿标准,最终表现为赔偿与租金互相抵消之局面。