Rock weathering plays an important role in studying the long-term carbon cycles and global climatic change. According to the statistics analysis, the Huanghe (Yellow) River water chemistry was mainly controlled by eva...Rock weathering plays an important role in studying the long-term carbon cycles and global climatic change. According to the statistics analysis, the Huanghe (Yellow) River water chemistry was mainly controlled by evaporite and carbonate weathering, which were responsible for over 90% of total dissolved ions. As compared with the Huanghe River basin, dissolved load of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River was mainly originated from the carbonate dissolution. The chemical weathering rates were estimated to be 39.29t/(km(2).a) and 61.58t/(km(2).a) by deducting the HCO3- derived from atmosphere in the Huanghe River and Changjiang River watersheds, respectively. The CO2 consumption rates by rock weathering were calculated to be 120.84 x 10(3)mol/km(2) and 452.46 x 10(3)mol/km(2) annually in the two basins, respectively. The total CO2 consumption of the two basins amounted to 918.51 x 10(9)mol/a, accounting for 3.83% of the world gross. In contrast to other world watersheds, the stronger evaporite reaction and infirm silicate weathering can explain such feature that CO2 consumption rates were lower than a global average, suggesting that the sequential weathering may be go on in the two Chinese drainage basins.展开更多
Influences of large-scale climatic phenomena, such as the E1Nifio/La Nifia-Southem Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), on the temporal variations of the annual water discharge at the Liji...Influences of large-scale climatic phenomena, such as the E1Nifio/La Nifia-Southem Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), on the temporal variations of the annual water discharge at the Lijin station in the Huanghe (Yellow) River and at the Datong station in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River were examined. Using the empirical mode decomposition-maximum entropy spectral analysis (EMD- MESA) method, the 2- to 3-year, 8- to 14-year, and 23-year cyclical variations of the annual water discharge at the two stations were discovered. Based on the analysis results, the hydrological time series on the inter- annual to interdecadal scales were constructed. The results indicate that from 1950 to 2011, a significant downward trend occurred in the natural annual water discharge in Huanghe River. However, the changes in water discharge in Changjiang River basin exhibited a slightly upward trend. It indicated that the changes in the river discharge in the Huanghe basin were driven primarily by precipitation. Other factors, such as the precipitation over the Changjiang River tributaries, ice melt and evaporation contributed much more to the increase in the Changjiang River basin. Especially, the impacts of the inter-annual and inter-decadal climate oscillations such as ENSO and PDO could change the long-term patterns of precipitation over the basins of the two major rivers. Generally, low amounts of basin-wide precipitation on interannual to interdecadal scales over the two rivers corresponded to most of the warm ENSO events and the warm phases of the PDO, and vice versa. The positive phases of the PDO and ENSO could lead to reduced precipitation and consequently affect the long-term scale water discharges at the two rivers.展开更多
This paper studies the relationship between net primary productivity (NPP) and annual average air temperature (GT) at 0cm above ground in permafrost regions by using revised Chikugo NPP model,cubic spline interpolatin...This paper studies the relationship between net primary productivity (NPP) and annual average air temperature (GT) at 0cm above ground in permafrost regions by using revised Chikugo NPP model,cubic spline interpolating functions,and non-linear regression methods.The source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers were selected as the research areas.Results illustrate that:(1) There is significant non-linear relationship between NPP and GT in various typical years;(2) The maximum value of NPP is 6.17,5.87,7.73,and 5.41 DM·t·hm-2 ·a-1 respectively,and the corresponding GT is 7.1,10.0,21.2,and 8.9 o C respectively in 1980,1990,2000 and 2007;(3) In 1980,the sensitivity of NPP to GT is higher than in 1990,2000 and 2007.This tendency shows that the NPP presents change from fluctuation to an adaptation process over time;(4) During 1980~2007,the accumulated NPP was reduced to 8.05,and the corresponding carrying capacity of theoretical livestock reduced by 11%;(5) The shape of the demonstration region of ecological compensation system,livelihood support system,and science appraisal system in the source regions of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers are an important research for increasing the adaptation capacity and balancing protection and development.展开更多
Mountain areas are often rich in ecological diversity and recreational opportunities. Mountain tourism is thought to be an effective and important means for maintaining and expanding rural economies and, thus, improvi...Mountain areas are often rich in ecological diversity and recreational opportunities. Mountain tourism is thought to be an effective and important means for maintaining and expanding rural economies and, thus, improving the living conditions of rural societies. As mountain tourism service research is a professional field with several disciplines involved, a multi-disciplinary management pIatform is needed and it facilitates participation in sustainable mountain development by diverse stakeholders. With the source regions of the Yangtze and the Yellow River as a case study, this paper presents a conceptual framework for an adaptation management of mountain tourism services according to technical, policy, social and economic dimensions. The framework is based on a vulnerability assessment of mountain ecosystems, and can serve as a reference for the development of tourism service in other mountain areas.展开更多
A Bayesian multi-model inference framework was used to assess the changes in the occurrence of extreme hydroclimatic events in four major river basins in China (i.e., Liaohe River Basin, Yellow River Basin, Yangtze R...A Bayesian multi-model inference framework was used to assess the changes in the occurrence of extreme hydroclimatic events in four major river basins in China (i.e., Liaohe River Basin, Yellow River Basin, Yangtze River Basin, and Pearl River Basin) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios using multiple global climate model projections from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. The results projected more summer days and fewer frost days in 2006-2099. The ensemble prediction shows the Pearl River Basin is projected to experience more summer days than other basins with the increasing trend of 16.3, 38.0, and 73.0 d per 100 years for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Liaohe River Basin and Yellow River Basin are forecasted to become wetter and warmer with the co-occurrence of increases in summer days and wet days. Very heavy precipitation days (R20, daily precipitation ≥20 mm) are projected to increase in all basins. The R20 in the Yangtze River Basin are projected to have the highest change rate in 2006-2099 of 1.8, 2.5, and 3.8 d per 100 years for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively.展开更多
Exploring the impact of climate factors on vegetation phenology is crucial to understanding climate–vegetation interactions as well as carbon and water cycles in ecosystems in the context of climate change.In this ar...Exploring the impact of climate factors on vegetation phenology is crucial to understanding climate–vegetation interactions as well as carbon and water cycles in ecosystems in the context of climate change.In this article,we extracted the vegetation phenology data from 2002 to 2021 based on the dynamic threshold method in the source region of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers.Trend and correlation analyses were used to investigate the relationship between vegetation phenology and temperature,precipitation and their spatial evolution characteristics.The results showed that:(i)From 2002 to 2021,the multi-year average start of growing season(SOS),end of growing season(EOS)and length of growing season(LOS)for plants were concentrated in May,October and 4–6 months,with a trend of 4.9 days(earlier),1.5 days(later),6.3 days/10 a(longer),respectively.(ii)For every 100 m increase in elevation,SOS,EOS and LOS were correspondingly delayed by 1.8 days,advanced by 0.8 days and shortened by 2.6 days,respectively.(iii)The impacts of temperature and precipitation on vegetation phenology varied at different stages of vegetation growth.Influencing factors of spring phenology experienced a shift from temperature to precipitation,while autumn phenology experienced precipitation followed by temperature.(iv)The climate factors in the previous period significantly affected the vegetation phenology in the study area and the spatial variability was obvious.Specifically,the temperature in April significantly affected the spring phenology and precipitation in August widely affected the autumn phenology.展开更多
The bionomics of Campoletis chlorideae and the regularity of its seasonal fluctuations were studied in Changsha district,Hunan province. Field investigation indicated that there were ten generations of C. chlori...The bionomics of Campoletis chlorideae and the regularity of its seasonal fluctuations were studied in Changsha district,Hunan province. Field investigation indicated that there were ten generations of C. chlorideae a year, of which seven occurred in cotton fields. Three peaks of cotton bollworm parasitization by C. chlorideae were observed, early May to late June, mid August to early September, mid September to mid October respectively. One peak occurred in tomato and tobacco fields, the other two in cotton fields. The parasitization rate ranged from 25.1%- 63.1%. The total development time from egg to adult ranged from 13.0 days at 32℃ to 75.5 days at 11.6℃. Each wasp could parasitize the 5-23 second instar larvae of tobacco caterpillar. C. chlorideae could parasitize the cotton bollworm, beet armyworm and tobacco caterpillar, but preferred the cotton bollworm larvae. C. chlorideae could parasitized 1st-3rd instar larvae of the tobacco caterpillar, but seldom parasitzed 4th-6th instar larvae. Moreover, C. chlorideae preferred second instar larvae. Theoretical models for developmental speed, adult longevity and the influence of temperature were proposed. The overwintering of C. chlorideae Uchida was also discussed. Moreover, methods for utilization of C. chlorideae Uchida in crop protection were presented and the bionomics of Campoletis chlorideae in both the Yangtze River Valley and Yellow River Valley were compared.展开更多
Runoffs in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins, China, have been changing constantly during the last half century. In this paper, data from eight river gauging stations and 529 meteorological stations, inside an...Runoffs in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins, China, have been changing constantly during the last half century. In this paper, data from eight river gauging stations and 529 meteorological stations, inside and adjacent to the study basins, were analyzed and compared to quantify the hydrological processes involved, and to evaluate the role of human activities in chang- ing river discharges. The Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method was used to obtain climatic data coverage from station observations. According to the runoff coefficient equation, the effect of human activities and climate can be ex- pressed by changes in runoff coefficients and changes in precipitation, respectively. Annual runoff coefficients were calculated for the period 1950-2008, according to the correlation between respective hydrological series and regional precipitation. An- nual precipitation showed no obvious trend in the upper reaches of the Yellow River but a marked downward trend in the mid- dle and downstream reaches, with declines of 8.8 and 9.8 ram/10 a, respectively. All annual runoff series for the Yellow River basin showed a significant downward trend. Runoff declined by about 7.8 mm/10 a at Sanmenxia and 10.8 ram/10 a at Lijin. The series results indicated that an abrupt change occurred in the late 1980s to early 1990s. The trend of correlations between annual runoff and precipitation decreased significantly at the Yellow River stations, with rates ranging from 0.013/10 a to 0.019/10 a. For the hydrologic series, all precipitation series showed a downward trend in the Yangtze River basin with de- clines ranging from about 24.7 mm/10 a at Cuntan to 18.2 mm/10 a at Datong. Annual runoff series for the upper reaches of the Yangtze River decreased significantly, at rates ranging from 9.9 to 7.2 mm/10 a. In the middle and lower reaches, the run- off series showed no significant trend, with rates of change ranging from 2.1 to 2.9 ram/10 a. Human activities had the greatest influence on changes in the hydrological series of runoff, regardless of whether the effect was negative or positive. During 1970-2008, human activities contributed to 83% of the reduction in runoff in the Yellow River basin, and to 71% of the in- crease in runoff in the Yangtze River basin. Moreover, the impacts of human activities across the entire basin increased over time. In the 2000s, the impact of human activities exceeded that of climate change and was responsible for 84% of the decrease and 73% of the increase in runoff in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins, respectively. The average annual runoff from 1980 to 2008 fell by about 97%, 83%, 83%, and 91%, compared with 1951-1969, at the Yellow River stations Lanzhou, San- menxia, Huayuankou and Lijin, respectively. Most of the reduction in runoff was caused by human activities. Changes in pre- cipitation also caused reductions in runoff of about 3%, 17%, 17%, and 9% at these four stations, respectively. Falling precipi- tation rates were the main explanation for runoff changes at the Yangtze River stations Cuntan, Yichang, Hankou, and Datong, causing reductions in runoff of 89%, 74%, 43%, and 35%, respectively. Underlying surface changes caused decreases in runoff in the Yellow River basin and increases in runoff in the Yangtze River basin. Runoff decreased in arid areas as a result of in- creased water usage, but increased in humid and sub-humid areas as a result of land reclamation and mass urbanization leading to decreases in evaporation and infiltration.展开更多
In general, China is short of water resources and some regions even experience a shortage of daily water supply. This could threaten the stability and economic development of the nation. A study on the water storage v...In general, China is short of water resources and some regions even experience a shortage of daily water supply. This could threaten the stability and economic development of the nation. A study on the water storage variations is especially important for the water management and storage prediction in three largest river basins of China, namely, Yangtze, Yellow, and Zhujiang, where the most dense population and leading economic regions are located. The satellite gravity mission GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) provides an opportunity to macroseopically identify water (or mass) variations in the Earth's system with a spatial resolution of 300-400 km and a temporal resolution of about one month. We use the first release of the DEOS (Delft Institute of Earth Observation and Space Systems) Mass Transport (DMT-1) model based on GRACE data to analyze water storage changes in the three river basins. The DMT-1 model consists of monthly solutions, which are computed using an innovative methodology. The methodology includes, in particular, the application of a statistically optimal Wiener-type filter based on full varianee-covariance matrices of noise and signal. This results in particularly sharp mass variation maps. Taking one monthly solution as an example, we compare the results derived from the DMT-1 model with ones produced with the standard post-processing scheme based on a combination of the de-striping and Gaussian filtering. The comparison shows that the DMT-1 model outperforms the other models and is suitable for the analysis of the mass changes in river basins. A subset of the DMT-1 solutions in the interval between February 2003 and May 2008 is used to estimate the secular trends and seasonal variations for the three river basins. The estimated trends show that the water storage of the Yellow River basin does not have significant changes, while the Zhujiang and Yangtze river basins have a large and statistically significant water storage increase. The estimation of seasonal variations demonstrates that the water storage variations in Yangtze and Zhujiang river basins are almost in the same phase. The amplitude of variations in the Zhujiang River basin is larger than that in Yangtze. No clear annual variations are observed in the Yellow River basin. The observed water storage variations generally coincide with the observations and conclusions presented in the hydrological reports of the Chinese Ministry of Water Resources展开更多
基金Undertheauspicesof Ministry of Science and Technology Project of China (No. G1999043075)
文摘Rock weathering plays an important role in studying the long-term carbon cycles and global climatic change. According to the statistics analysis, the Huanghe (Yellow) River water chemistry was mainly controlled by evaporite and carbonate weathering, which were responsible for over 90% of total dissolved ions. As compared with the Huanghe River basin, dissolved load of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River was mainly originated from the carbonate dissolution. The chemical weathering rates were estimated to be 39.29t/(km(2).a) and 61.58t/(km(2).a) by deducting the HCO3- derived from atmosphere in the Huanghe River and Changjiang River watersheds, respectively. The CO2 consumption rates by rock weathering were calculated to be 120.84 x 10(3)mol/km(2) and 452.46 x 10(3)mol/km(2) annually in the two basins, respectively. The total CO2 consumption of the two basins amounted to 918.51 x 10(9)mol/a, accounting for 3.83% of the world gross. In contrast to other world watersheds, the stronger evaporite reaction and infirm silicate weathering can explain such feature that CO2 consumption rates were lower than a global average, suggesting that the sequential weathering may be go on in the two Chinese drainage basins.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No.2010CB951202)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41376055,41030856)
文摘Influences of large-scale climatic phenomena, such as the E1Nifio/La Nifia-Southem Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), on the temporal variations of the annual water discharge at the Lijin station in the Huanghe (Yellow) River and at the Datong station in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River were examined. Using the empirical mode decomposition-maximum entropy spectral analysis (EMD- MESA) method, the 2- to 3-year, 8- to 14-year, and 23-year cyclical variations of the annual water discharge at the two stations were discovered. Based on the analysis results, the hydrological time series on the inter- annual to interdecadal scales were constructed. The results indicate that from 1950 to 2011, a significant downward trend occurred in the natural annual water discharge in Huanghe River. However, the changes in water discharge in Changjiang River basin exhibited a slightly upward trend. It indicated that the changes in the river discharge in the Huanghe basin were driven primarily by precipitation. Other factors, such as the precipitation over the Changjiang River tributaries, ice melt and evaporation contributed much more to the increase in the Changjiang River basin. Especially, the impacts of the inter-annual and inter-decadal climate oscillations such as ENSO and PDO could change the long-term patterns of precipitation over the basins of the two major rivers. Generally, low amounts of basin-wide precipitation on interannual to interdecadal scales over the two rivers corresponded to most of the warm ENSO events and the warm phases of the PDO, and vice versa. The positive phases of the PDO and ENSO could lead to reduced precipitation and consequently affect the long-term scale water discharges at the two rivers.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program,Grant No. 2007CB411507 and Grant No.2010CB951704)
文摘This paper studies the relationship between net primary productivity (NPP) and annual average air temperature (GT) at 0cm above ground in permafrost regions by using revised Chikugo NPP model,cubic spline interpolating functions,and non-linear regression methods.The source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers were selected as the research areas.Results illustrate that:(1) There is significant non-linear relationship between NPP and GT in various typical years;(2) The maximum value of NPP is 6.17,5.87,7.73,and 5.41 DM·t·hm-2 ·a-1 respectively,and the corresponding GT is 7.1,10.0,21.2,and 8.9 o C respectively in 1980,1990,2000 and 2007;(3) In 1980,the sensitivity of NPP to GT is higher than in 1990,2000 and 2007.This tendency shows that the NPP presents change from fluctuation to an adaptation process over time;(4) During 1980~2007,the accumulated NPP was reduced to 8.05,and the corresponding carrying capacity of theoretical livestock reduced by 11%;(5) The shape of the demonstration region of ecological compensation system,livelihood support system,and science appraisal system in the source regions of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers are an important research for increasing the adaptation capacity and balancing protection and development.
基金supported by the grant from the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, No. 2007CB411507)Open Fund from the State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science (SKLCS 08-05)
文摘Mountain areas are often rich in ecological diversity and recreational opportunities. Mountain tourism is thought to be an effective and important means for maintaining and expanding rural economies and, thus, improving the living conditions of rural societies. As mountain tourism service research is a professional field with several disciplines involved, a multi-disciplinary management pIatform is needed and it facilitates participation in sustainable mountain development by diverse stakeholders. With the source regions of the Yangtze and the Yellow River as a case study, this paper presents a conceptual framework for an adaptation management of mountain tourism services according to technical, policy, social and economic dimensions. The framework is based on a vulnerability assessment of mountain ecosystems, and can serve as a reference for the development of tourism service in other mountain areas.
基金Acknowledgments Funding for this research was provided by the National Key Basic Special Foundation Project of China (2010CB428400), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41375139). We are grateful to the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison for collecting and archiving the model data.
文摘A Bayesian multi-model inference framework was used to assess the changes in the occurrence of extreme hydroclimatic events in four major river basins in China (i.e., Liaohe River Basin, Yellow River Basin, Yangtze River Basin, and Pearl River Basin) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios using multiple global climate model projections from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. The results projected more summer days and fewer frost days in 2006-2099. The ensemble prediction shows the Pearl River Basin is projected to experience more summer days than other basins with the increasing trend of 16.3, 38.0, and 73.0 d per 100 years for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Liaohe River Basin and Yellow River Basin are forecasted to become wetter and warmer with the co-occurrence of increases in summer days and wet days. Very heavy precipitation days (R20, daily precipitation ≥20 mm) are projected to increase in all basins. The R20 in the Yangtze River Basin are projected to have the highest change rate in 2006-2099 of 1.8, 2.5, and 3.8 d per 100 years for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Project(2022YFC3201704)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52079008,52009006,52109038)+2 种基金the Research Fund of Key Laboratory of Water Management and Water Security for Yellow River Basin,Ministry of Water Resources(2023-SYSJJ-10)the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province(2022CFB554,2022CFD037)National Public Research Institutes for Basic R&D Operating Expenses Special Project(CKSF2023311/SZ).
文摘Exploring the impact of climate factors on vegetation phenology is crucial to understanding climate–vegetation interactions as well as carbon and water cycles in ecosystems in the context of climate change.In this article,we extracted the vegetation phenology data from 2002 to 2021 based on the dynamic threshold method in the source region of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers.Trend and correlation analyses were used to investigate the relationship between vegetation phenology and temperature,precipitation and their spatial evolution characteristics.The results showed that:(i)From 2002 to 2021,the multi-year average start of growing season(SOS),end of growing season(EOS)and length of growing season(LOS)for plants were concentrated in May,October and 4–6 months,with a trend of 4.9 days(earlier),1.5 days(later),6.3 days/10 a(longer),respectively.(ii)For every 100 m increase in elevation,SOS,EOS and LOS were correspondingly delayed by 1.8 days,advanced by 0.8 days and shortened by 2.6 days,respectively.(iii)The impacts of temperature and precipitation on vegetation phenology varied at different stages of vegetation growth.Influencing factors of spring phenology experienced a shift from temperature to precipitation,while autumn phenology experienced precipitation followed by temperature.(iv)The climate factors in the previous period significantly affected the vegetation phenology in the study area and the spatial variability was obvious.Specifically,the temperature in April significantly affected the spring phenology and precipitation in August widely affected the autumn phenology.
文摘The bionomics of Campoletis chlorideae and the regularity of its seasonal fluctuations were studied in Changsha district,Hunan province. Field investigation indicated that there were ten generations of C. chlorideae a year, of which seven occurred in cotton fields. Three peaks of cotton bollworm parasitization by C. chlorideae were observed, early May to late June, mid August to early September, mid September to mid October respectively. One peak occurred in tomato and tobacco fields, the other two in cotton fields. The parasitization rate ranged from 25.1%- 63.1%. The total development time from egg to adult ranged from 13.0 days at 32℃ to 75.5 days at 11.6℃. Each wasp could parasitize the 5-23 second instar larvae of tobacco caterpillar. C. chlorideae could parasitize the cotton bollworm, beet armyworm and tobacco caterpillar, but preferred the cotton bollworm larvae. C. chlorideae could parasitized 1st-3rd instar larvae of the tobacco caterpillar, but seldom parasitzed 4th-6th instar larvae. Moreover, C. chlorideae preferred second instar larvae. Theoretical models for developmental speed, adult longevity and the influence of temperature were proposed. The overwintering of C. chlorideae Uchida was also discussed. Moreover, methods for utilization of C. chlorideae Uchida in crop protection were presented and the bionomics of Campoletis chlorideae in both the Yangtze River Valley and Yellow River Valley were compared.
基金supported by National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No. 2010CB951404)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41030527 and 41130368)Hundred Talents Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘Runoffs in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins, China, have been changing constantly during the last half century. In this paper, data from eight river gauging stations and 529 meteorological stations, inside and adjacent to the study basins, were analyzed and compared to quantify the hydrological processes involved, and to evaluate the role of human activities in chang- ing river discharges. The Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method was used to obtain climatic data coverage from station observations. According to the runoff coefficient equation, the effect of human activities and climate can be ex- pressed by changes in runoff coefficients and changes in precipitation, respectively. Annual runoff coefficients were calculated for the period 1950-2008, according to the correlation between respective hydrological series and regional precipitation. An- nual precipitation showed no obvious trend in the upper reaches of the Yellow River but a marked downward trend in the mid- dle and downstream reaches, with declines of 8.8 and 9.8 ram/10 a, respectively. All annual runoff series for the Yellow River basin showed a significant downward trend. Runoff declined by about 7.8 mm/10 a at Sanmenxia and 10.8 ram/10 a at Lijin. The series results indicated that an abrupt change occurred in the late 1980s to early 1990s. The trend of correlations between annual runoff and precipitation decreased significantly at the Yellow River stations, with rates ranging from 0.013/10 a to 0.019/10 a. For the hydrologic series, all precipitation series showed a downward trend in the Yangtze River basin with de- clines ranging from about 24.7 mm/10 a at Cuntan to 18.2 mm/10 a at Datong. Annual runoff series for the upper reaches of the Yangtze River decreased significantly, at rates ranging from 9.9 to 7.2 mm/10 a. In the middle and lower reaches, the run- off series showed no significant trend, with rates of change ranging from 2.1 to 2.9 ram/10 a. Human activities had the greatest influence on changes in the hydrological series of runoff, regardless of whether the effect was negative or positive. During 1970-2008, human activities contributed to 83% of the reduction in runoff in the Yellow River basin, and to 71% of the in- crease in runoff in the Yangtze River basin. Moreover, the impacts of human activities across the entire basin increased over time. In the 2000s, the impact of human activities exceeded that of climate change and was responsible for 84% of the decrease and 73% of the increase in runoff in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins, respectively. The average annual runoff from 1980 to 2008 fell by about 97%, 83%, 83%, and 91%, compared with 1951-1969, at the Yellow River stations Lanzhou, San- menxia, Huayuankou and Lijin, respectively. Most of the reduction in runoff was caused by human activities. Changes in pre- cipitation also caused reductions in runoff of about 3%, 17%, 17%, and 9% at these four stations, respectively. Falling precipi- tation rates were the main explanation for runoff changes at the Yangtze River stations Cuntan, Yichang, Hankou, and Datong, causing reductions in runoff of 89%, 74%, 43%, and 35%, respectively. Underlying surface changes caused decreases in runoff in the Yellow River basin and increases in runoff in the Yangtze River basin. Runoff decreased in arid areas as a result of in- creased water usage, but increased in humid and sub-humid areas as a result of land reclamation and mass urbanization leading to decreases in evaporation and infiltration.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40874004)National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2009AA121401)the "111 Project" of China (Grant No. B07037)
文摘In general, China is short of water resources and some regions even experience a shortage of daily water supply. This could threaten the stability and economic development of the nation. A study on the water storage variations is especially important for the water management and storage prediction in three largest river basins of China, namely, Yangtze, Yellow, and Zhujiang, where the most dense population and leading economic regions are located. The satellite gravity mission GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) provides an opportunity to macroseopically identify water (or mass) variations in the Earth's system with a spatial resolution of 300-400 km and a temporal resolution of about one month. We use the first release of the DEOS (Delft Institute of Earth Observation and Space Systems) Mass Transport (DMT-1) model based on GRACE data to analyze water storage changes in the three river basins. The DMT-1 model consists of monthly solutions, which are computed using an innovative methodology. The methodology includes, in particular, the application of a statistically optimal Wiener-type filter based on full varianee-covariance matrices of noise and signal. This results in particularly sharp mass variation maps. Taking one monthly solution as an example, we compare the results derived from the DMT-1 model with ones produced with the standard post-processing scheme based on a combination of the de-striping and Gaussian filtering. The comparison shows that the DMT-1 model outperforms the other models and is suitable for the analysis of the mass changes in river basins. A subset of the DMT-1 solutions in the interval between February 2003 and May 2008 is used to estimate the secular trends and seasonal variations for the three river basins. The estimated trends show that the water storage of the Yellow River basin does not have significant changes, while the Zhujiang and Yangtze river basins have a large and statistically significant water storage increase. The estimation of seasonal variations demonstrates that the water storage variations in Yangtze and Zhujiang river basins are almost in the same phase. The amplitude of variations in the Zhujiang River basin is larger than that in Yangtze. No clear annual variations are observed in the Yellow River basin. The observed water storage variations generally coincide with the observations and conclusions presented in the hydrological reports of the Chinese Ministry of Water Resources