陈寅恪“预流”说辨析

陈寅恪的"预流"说是在西方汉学的直接诱导下形成的。陈氏以西方汉学为标尺,将寄身于西方汉学的敦煌学奉为世界学术之新潮流。"预流"说固然指示了学术演进的某种法则或通例,但在史学发展中新旧史料、问题与史料的关系上,却也不免片面和失察之处。敦煌学虽蔚为一时之显学,但就整个世界汉学的发展趋势而言,并不足以代表时代学术新潮。1930年代以后,陈寅恪本人已对"预流"说有所匡正和超越,今人也不宜过分拘泥其说。

Regional epidemic laws of poplar Ice Nucleation Active bacterial canker

Through the methods of correlation analysis and main factor analysis, the relationship between the poplar INA bacte-rial canker and circumstances was analyzed and 9 main factors for affecting the disease were selected. Based on the compre-hensive analysis of main factors and induced factors, the standard for risk grades of this disease was promoted and northeast region of China was divided into 4 districts with different risk grades: seriously occurring district, commonly occurring district, occasionally occurring district, and un-occurring district. Nonlinear regression analysis for six model curves showed that the Richard growth model was suitable for describing the temporal dynamics of poplar INA bacterial canker. By stepwise variable selection method, the multi-variable linear regression forecasting equation was set up to predict the next year抯 disease index, and the GM (1,1) model was also set up by grey method to submit middle or long period forecast.

Study on the Occurrence and Epidemic Regularity and Region Division of Rice Blast in Nanchong City

With the aim to improve the level of monitoring and warning as well as the comprehensive control of rice blast disease, and to feasibly reduce the disease threat in Nanchong City, the methods of GPS and GIS, systematical monitoring and field survey, rice blast resistance identification, physiologic races of rice blast monitoring, and meteorological data analysis were performed to study the occurrence and epidemic region division, precise demarcation and occurrence and epidemic regularity of rice blast in Nanchong City. This study first completed the epidemic region division and precise demarcation; first clarified the initial affection（beginning period） locations, occurrence characteristics, epidemic trends and characteristics; explicated the existence of four epidemic peak periods of rice blast in the field, where the damage areas of first peak period played a decisive role during the blast epidemic years; in late May, the cumulative occurrence areas and annual occurrence areas presented higher positive correlation with the correlation coefficient of 0.817;and established a prediction model of occurrence areas per year based on the disease field rate at the end of boot stages and the diseased plant rate at dough stages. The results of investigation on the impact factors investigation of blast disease in Nanchong in recent years suggested that the internal causes were the decrease or loss of blast resistance of the rice cultivars, as well as the increase of physiological races with strong resistance to rice blast and the emergence of new virulent physiologic varieties; the external causes were suitable temperature, too much rainy, and sunlight shortage. Between 2010 and 2015, the short-term forecast accuracy for rice blast in Nanchong was up to 100%, and medium-and long-term forecast accuracy was also up to 98% and 95%, respectively, which increased by 5-15% than that before 1997, thereby making the control effect of rice blast in Nanchong increased by 15-30%.

Study on Epidemic Characteristics and Its Causes of Wheat Stripe Rust in Nanchong City

On basis of the research result of stripe rust for 16 years since 1999,the epidemic characteristics and trend of stripe rust in the city were determined.Namely,the earlier the initial stage appeared,the heavier the disease would be.Furthermore,stripe rust has two introduction infection peaks,of which the first peak plays a key role.In farmlands,there are one to three epidemic peaks,and the infection area of the first peak plays the key role on the epidemic area of that year.In addition,the accumulated areas of late January was in significantly positive correlation with annually total area,with a correlation coefficient of 0.769 2.In recent 16 years,the frequency of severe stripe rust was as high as 81.25% which was 50% higher than that before 1995.The slight stripe rust became just in 2013,with a frequency of 6.3%,which indicated that the city has become a region hit by severe stripe rust.The internal reason is the reduction or loss of wheat variety＇s resistance to tripe rust for a new physiological race of rust is becoming pathogenic stronger and be the major race.Big fluctuation of temperatures in warm winter and spring,foggy and dew days slants much would be the external reason.

LOW MACH NUMBER FLOW COMPUTATION USING PRECONDITIONING METHODS AND COMPRESSIBLE NAVIER-STOKES EQUATIONS

The preconditioning method is used to solve the low Mach number flow. The space discritisation scheme is the Roe scheme and the DES turbulence model is used. Then, the low Mach number turbulence flow around the NACA0012 airfoil is used to verify the efficiency of the proposed method. Two cases of the low Mach number flows around the multi-element airfoil and the circular cylinder are also used to test the proposed method. Numerical results show that the methods combined the preconditioning method and compressible Navier-Stokes equations are efficient to solve low Mach number flows.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION AND ANALYSIS OF HORSESHOE-SHAPED VORTEX IN NEAR-WALL REGION OF TURBULENT BOUNDARY LAYER

The low-Reynolds-number full developed turbulent flow in channels is simulated using large eddy simulation（LES）method with the preconditioned algorithm and the dynamic subgrid-scale model,with a given disturbance in inlet boundary,after a short development section.The inlet Reynolds number based on momentum thickness is 670.The computed results show good agreement with direct numerical simulation（DNS）,which include root mean square fluctuated velocity distribution and average velocity distribution.It is also found that the staggered phenomenon of the coherent structures is caused by sub-harmonic.The results clearly show the formation and evolution of horseshoe vortex in the turbulent boundary layer,including horseshoe vortex structure with a pair of streamwise vortexes and one-side leg of horseshoe vortex.Based on the results,the development of the horseshoe-shaped coherent structures is analyzed in turbulent boundary layer.

Research on a non-linear chaotic prediction model for urban traffic flow

In order to solve serious urban transport problems, according to the proved chaotic characteristic of traffic flow, a non linear chaotic model to analyze the time series of traffic flow is proposed. This model reconstructs the time series of traffic flow in the phase space firstly, and the correlative information in the traffic flow is extracted richly, on the basis of it, a predicted equation for the reconstructed information is established by using chaotic theory, and for the purpose of obtaining the optimal predicted results, recognition and optimization to the model parameters are done by using genetic algorithm. Practical prediction research of urban traffic flow shows that this model has famous predicted precision, and it can provide exact reference for urban traffic programming and control.

A High-PSRR CMOS Bandgap Reference Without Resistor

A CMOS bandgap reference （BGR） without a resistor,with a high power supply rejection ratio and output be- low 1V is proposed. The circuit is suited for on-chip voltage down converters. The BGR is designed and fabricated using an HUTC 0.18μm CMOS process. The silicon area is only 0. 031mm^2 excluding pads and electrostatic-discharge （ESD） protec- tion circuits. Experimental results show that the PSRR of the proposed BGR at 100Hz and lkHz achieves, respectively, - 70 and 62dB using the pre-regulator. The proposed BGR circuit generates an output voltage of 0. 5582V with a varia- tion of 1.5mV in a temperature range from 0 to 85℃. The deviation of the output voltage is within 2mV when the power supply voltage VDD changes from 2.4 to 4V.

APPLICATION OF INTELLIGENCE FORECASTING METHOD IN TRAFFIC ANALYSIS OF EGCS

Traffic flow forecasting is an important part of elevator group control system (EGCS).This paper applies time series prediction theories based on neural networks(NN) to EGCSs traffic analysis,and establishes a time series NN traffic flow forecasting model.Simulation results show its validity.

Characteristic Rainfall for Warning of Debris Flows

A characteristic rainfall is introduced to overcome the difficulties encountered in determining a critical rainfall value for triggering debris flow.The characteristic value is defined as the rainfall at which debris-flow occurrence probability shows a rapid increase,and can be used as a warning rainfall threshold for debris flows.Investigation of recorded debris flows and 24-hour rainfall data at Jiangjia basin,Yunnan Province,in southwestern China,demonstrates the existence of such a characteristic rainfall.It was found that the characteristic rainfall corresponds to the daily rainfall of 90% cumulative probability by analyzing the basin's daily rainfall histogram.The result provides a simple and useful method for estimating a debris-flow warning rainfall threshold from the daily rainfall distribution.It was applied to estimate the debris-flow warning rainfall threshold for the Subaohe basin,a watershed in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake zone with many physical characteristics similar to those of the Jiangjia basin.

Efficacy of intramuscular diclofenac and fluid replacement in prevention of post-ERCP pancreatitis

AIM： TO assess the efficacy of intramuscular diclofenac and fluid replacement for prevention of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography （ERCP） pancreatitis.METHODS： A prospective, placebo-controlled study was conducted in 80 patients who underwent ERCP. Patients were randomized to receive parenteral diclofenac at a loading dose of 75 mg followed by the infusion of 5-10 mL/kg per hour isotonic saline over 4 h after the procedure, or the infusion of 500 mL isotonic saline as placebo. Patients were evaluated clinically, and serum amylase levels were measured 4, 8 and 24 h after the procedure.RESULTS： The two groups were matched for age, sex, underlying disease, ERCP findings, and type of treatment. The overall incidence of pancreatitis was 7.5% in the diclofenac group and 17.5% in the placebo group （12.5% in total）. There were no significant differences in the incidence of pancreatitis and other variables between the two groups. In the subgroup analysis, the frequency of pancreatitis in the patients without sphincter of Oddi dysfunction （SOD） was significantly lower in the diclofenac group than in the control group （ρ = 0.047）.CONCLUSION： Intramuscular diclofenac and fluid replacement lowered the rate of pancreatitis in patients without SOD.

Mechanism and Forecasting Methods for Severe Droughts and Floods in Songhua River Basin in China

The influence of various factors, mechanisms, and principles affecting runoff are summarized as periodic law, random law, and basin-wide law. Periodic law is restricted by astronomical factors, random law is restricted by atmospheric circulation, and basin-wide law is restricted by underlying surface. The commensurability method was used to identify the almost period law, the wave method was applied to deducing the random law, and the precursor method was applied in order to forecast runoff magnitude for the current year. These three methods can be used to assess each other and to forecast runoff. The system can also be applied to forecasting wet years, normal years and dry years for a particular year as well as forecasting years when floods with similar characteristics of previous floods, can be expected. Based on hydrological climate data of Baishan (1933-2009) and Nierji (1886-2009) in the Songhua River Basin, the forecasting results for 2010 show that it was a wet year in the Baishan Reservoir, similar to the year of 1995; it was a secondary dry year in the Nierji Reservoir, similar to the year of 1980. The actual water inflow into the Baishan Reservoir was 1.178 × 10 10 m 3 in 2010, which was markedly higher than average inflows, ranking as the second highest in history since records began. The actual water inflow at the Nierji station in 2010 was 9.96 × 10 9 m 3 , which was lower than the average over a period of many years. These results indicate a preliminary conclusion that the methods proposed in this paper have been proved to be reasonable and reliable, which will encourage the application of the chief reporter release system for each basin. This system was also used to forecast inflows for 2011, indicating a secondary wet year for the Baishan Reservoir in 2011, similar to that experienced in 1991. A secondary wet year was also forecast for the Nierji station in 2011, similar to that experienced during 1983. According to the nature of influencing factors, mechanisms and forecasting methods and the service objects, mid-to long-term hydrological forecasting can be divided into two classes:mid-to long-term runoff forecasting, and severe floods and droughts forecasting. The former can be applied to quantitative forecasting of runoff, which has important applications for water release schedules. The latter, i.e., qualitative disaster forecasting, is important for flood control and drought relief. Practical methods for forecasting severe droughts and floods are discussed in this paper.

Hourly traffic flow forecasting using a new hybrid modelling method

Short-term traffic flow forecasting is a significant part of intelligent transportation system.In some traffic control scenarios,obtaining future traffic flow in advance is conducive to highway management department to have sufficient time to formulate corresponding traffic flow control measures.In hence,it is meaningful to establish an accurate short-term traffic flow method and provide reference for peak traffic flow warning.This paper proposed a new hybrid model for traffic flow forecasting,which is composed of the variational mode decomposition(VMD)method,the group method of data handling(GMDH)neural network,bi-directional long and short term memory(BILSTM)network and ELMAN network,and is optimized by the imperialist competitive algorithm(ICA)method.To illustrate the performance of the proposed model,there are several comparative experiments between the proposed model and other models.The experiment results show that 1)BILSTM network,GMDH network and ELMAN network have better predictive performance than other single models;2)VMD can significantly improve the predictive performance of the ICA-GMDH-BILSTM-ELMAN model.The effect of VMD method is better than that of EEMD method and FEEMD method.To conclude,the proposed model which is made up of the VMD method,the ICA method,the BILSTM network,the GMDH network and the ELMAN network has excellent predictive ability for traffic flow series.

近二十年来中国景教研究述评

本文回顾了近二十年来中国景教研究的国际化表现与主要成就,包括专著增多和研究体系化,新材料的出土与公布引发新一轮的研究热潮,以及在艺术史、唐后景教走向、唐元景教关系等新课题上取得的重要进展等。文章最后评述了西域景教胡语文献释读与新疆景教考古的最新进展和研究价值。

Terminal Traffic Flow Prediction Method Under Convective Weather Using Deep Learning Approaches

In order to improve the accuracy and stability of terminal traffic flow prediction in convective weather,a multi-input deep learning(MICL)model is proposed.On the basis of previous studies,this paper expands the set of weather characteristics affecting the traffic flow in the terminal area,including weather forecast data and Meteorological Report of Aerodrome Conditions(METAR)data.The terminal airspace is divided into smaller areas based on function and the weather severity index(WSI)characteristics extracted from weather forecast data are established to better quantify the impact of weather.MICL model preserves the advantages of the convolution neural network(CNN)and the long short-term memory(LSTM)model,and adopts two channels to input WSI and METAR information,respectively,which can fully reflect the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of weather in the terminal area.Multi-scene experiments are designed based on the real historical data of Guangzhou Terminal Area operating in typical convective weather.The results show that the MICL model has excellent performance in mean squared error(MSE),root MSE(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE)and other performance indicators compared with the existing machine learning models or deep learning models,such as Knearest neighbor(KNN),support vector regression(SVR),CNN and LSTM.In the forecast period ranging from 30 min to 6 h,the MICL model has the best prediction accuracy and stability.

HIV/AIDS in Asia:The Shape of Epidemics and Their Molecular Epidemiology

The Asia-Pacific region is a home to 60% of the population in the world and to approximately one quarter of people with HIV/AIDS. Close to a million of people has been infected and a half million people died of AIDS annually in Asia,becoming the second largest epicenter of global AIDS epidemic. Molecular epidemiology has been useful tool to track a course of HIV spread. In-depth knowledge from the studies on molecular epidemiology elucidates the dynamics of HIV spread and the interrelationship of epidemics in the different regions in Asia.

Assessment of the Performance of WEPP in Purple Soil Area with Simulated Rainfall Experiments

The water erosion prediction project （WEPP） model is a popular water erosion prediction tool developed on the basis of the physical processes of water erosion. Although WEPP has been widely used around the world, its application in China is still insufficient. In this study, the performance of WEPP used to estimate the runoff and soil loss on purple soil （Calcaric Regosols in FAO taxonomy） sloping cropland was assessed with the data from runoff plots under simulated rainfall conditions. Based on measured soil properties, runoff and erosion parameters, namely effective hydraulic conductivity, inter-rill erodibility, rill erodibility, and critical shear stress were determined to be 2.68 mm h-1, 5.54 x l0^6 kg s-1 m-4, 0.027 s m-1 and 3-5 Pa, respectively, by using the recommended equations in the WEPP user manual. The simulated results were not good due to the low Nash efficiency of 0.41 for runoff and negative Nash efficiency for soil loss. After the four parameters were calibrated, WEPP performed better for soil loss prediction with a Nash efficiency of 0.76. The different results indicated that the equations recommended by WEPP to calculate parameters such as erodiblity and critical shear stress are not suitable for the purple soil areas, Sichuan Province, China. Although the predicted results can be accepted by optimizing the runoff and erosion parameters, more research related to the determination of erodibility and critical sheer stress must be conducted to improve the application of WEPP in the purple soil areas.

Influence of Vapor Cloud Shape on Temperature Field of Unconfined Vapor Cloud Explosion

In order to analyze the influence of vapor cloud shape on temperature field effect of unconfined vapor cloud explosion(UVCE)and obtain creditable prediction method of explosion temperature effect,the transient temperature fields of cylindrical and hemispherical UVCEs with same methane concentration and mass were numerically studied by computational fluid dynamics(CFD)technology.According to numerical simulation results, the concepts of UVCE’s temperature-near-field and temperature-far-field were proposed,the corresponding ranges were given,and the temperature attenuation laws and differences in corresponding regions with different vapor cloud shapes were presented.Through comparing with Baker fireball model,the accuracy and visualizability in acquisition of entire temperature effect based on numerical simulation were further validated.The functional relations among maximum temperature,horizontal distance,initial temperature and vapor cloud mass in temperature-near-field and temperature-far-field were deduced by means of data fitting,respectively.These conclusions provided quantitative basis for forecast and protection of UVCE disaster.

Prediction of Hydrodynamic Noise of Open Cavity Flow

In this paper,the hydrodynamically generated noise by the flow over an open cavity is studied.First,aeroacoustic theories and computational aeroacoustic(CAA) methodologies are reviewed in light of hydrodynamic acoustics,based on which,a hybrid method is presented.In the coupling procedure,the unsteady cavity flow field is computed using large-eddy simulation(LES) ,while the radiated sound is calculated by the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings(FW-H) acoustic analogy with acoustic source terms extracted from the time-dependent solutions of the unsteady flow.The hybrid LES-FW-H acoustic analogy method is tested with an open cavity flow at Mach number of 0.006 and Reynolds number of 105 .Following the reflection theorem of Powell,the contributions from different source terms are quantified,and the terms involving wall-pressure fluctuations are found to account for most of the radiated intensity.The radiation field is investigated in the frequency domain.For the longitudinal direction,the sound propagates with a dominant radiation downstream the cavity in the near-field and a flatter directivity in the far-field,while for the spanwise direction,the acoustic waves have a similar propagation along+z and-z directions,with no visible directivity.

Numerical Prediction for Subcooled Boiling Flow of Liquid Nitrogen in a Vertical Tube with MUSIG Model

Multiple size group （MUSIG） model combined with a threedimensional twofluid model were em ployed to predict subcooled boiling flow of liquid nitrogen in a vertical upward tube. Based on the mechanism of boiling heat transfer, some important bubble model parameters were amended to be applicable to the modeling of liquid nitrogen. The distribution of different discrete bubble classes was demonstrated numerically and the distribu tion patterns of void fraction in the wallheated tube were analyzed. It was found that the average void fraction in creases nonlinearly along the axial direction with wall heat flux and it decreases with inlet mass flow rate and sub cooled temperature. The local void fraction exhibited a Ushape distribution in the radial direction. The partition of the wall heat flux along the tube was obtained. The results showed that heat flux consumed on evaporation is the leading part of surface heat transfer at the rear region of subcooled boiling. The turning point in the pressure drop curve reflects the instability of bubbly flow. Good agreement was achieved on the local heat transfer coefficient aalnst experimental measurements, which demonstrated the accuracy of the numerical model.