中国古代诗歌“以悲为美”探索三题

1 .“以悲为美”的情感内涵主要包括“抒怨”与“抒愤”。二者究其实质并无大异 ,均在“中和”范围之内 ,抒怨即抒愤。认为“愤强于怨” ,“抒怨”多于“抒愤”并“占据主导地位”的观点 ,不符合诗歌创作的基本事实。 2 .“以悲为美”的文化心理依据不止限于孟子的“恻隐之心” ,还与孔子的“忠恕之道”有密切关联。贯穿二者的基本思想线索是“同情心” ,人本主义的人际关怀。 3.“以悲为美”真正“落实”于诗歌创作实践的理论主张最早见于《诗大序》的“风论”。“风论”还隐含着怨诗最易感染人心。

Cusp Model for Risk Analysis

Aim To assess simultaneously various risk states of a system. Methods\ Using the catastrophe and fuzzy theory, the energy and uncertainty in a system are set as two control variables and the function of the system is used as the state variable for analysis. Results and Conclusion\ A risk analysis model named the cusp model is presented. Various states regarding the safety of the system such as the accident state, no accident state and miss state can be represented at will on the cusp model.

Application of quantification theory in risk assessment of mine flooding

Hundreds of mine flooding accidents have occurred in China since the 1950s. These flooding accidents result in submerged working faces, even entire coal mines, leading to tremendous economic losses. It is reported that among 601 state-owned mines in China, 285 mines are exposed to water-inrush risks. The water pressure is becoming larger and larger with the increase of mining depth, leading to an increase of water-inrush hazards. Only when the risk of mine flooding is predicted in a reasonable manner, can we take timely and effective measures to prevent mine flooding from taking place. In our investigation quantification（H） theory is used to study the risk prediction problem about mine flooding. By investigating the main factors which affect mine flooding, eight risk assessment items have been identified. The extent of risk is classified into 4 grades. Given the data from different periods in the Feicheng mining area, a prediction model for the risk of mine flooding is established. The test analysis indicates a model correlation coefficient of 0.97 and the incidence of discrimination is as high as 97.37%, which implies that the effect of the model is quite satisfactory. With the help of computers, this method can be widely applied.

The Survival Probability in Generalized Poisson Risk Model

In this paper we generalize the aggregated premium income process from a constant rate process to a poisson process for the classical compound Poinsson risk model,then for the generalized model and the classical compound poisson risk model ,we respectively get its survival probability in finite time period in case of exponential claim amounts.

Wave-current interaction during Typhoon Nuri(2008)and Hagupit(2008):an application of the coupled ocean-wave modeling system in the northern South China Sea

The northern South China Sea(SCS) is frequently affected by typhoons. During severe storm events, wave-current interactions produce storm surges causing enormous damage in the path of the typhoon. To evaluate the influence of wave-current interactions on storm surge, we used a coupled ocean-atmospherewave-sediment transport(COAWST) modeling system with radiation-stress and vortex-force formulations to simulate two typically intense tropical storms that invaded the SCS, namely Typhoons Nuri(2008) and Hagupit(2008), and compared results with observations from the Hong Kong Observatory. Both radiationstress and vortex-force formulations significantly improved the accuracy of the simulation. Depending on which typhoon and the topography encountered, the influence of surface waves on the oceanic circulation showed different characteristics, including the differences of range and intensity of storm surge between vortex-force and radiation-stress experiments. During typhoon landing, strong sea-surface elevation in concert with wave set-up/set-down caused the adjustment of the momentum balance. In the direction perpendicular to the current, but especially in the cross-shore direction, the pressure gradient and wave effects on the current dominated the momentum balance.

Physical activity, sedentary behavior, and long-term cardiovascular risk in young people: A review and discussion of methodology in prospective studies

The long-term effects of physical activity （PA） or sedentary behavior on cardiovascular health in young people are not well understood. In this study, we use a narrative format to review the evidence for a prospective association with adiposity and other well-established biological cardiovascular risk factors in healthy young people, considering only studies with at least 2 years of follow-up. PA appears to elicit a long-term beneficial effect on adiposity and particularly markers of cardiovascular health. With adiposity, however, a few studies also reported that higher levels of PA were associated with higher levels of adiposity. Time spent sedentary does not appear to be related to adiposity or markers of cardiovascular health independent of PA. We then discuss the uncertainties in the underlying causal chain and consider a number of alternative modeling strategies, which could improve our understanding of the relationship in future studies. Finally, we consider the current methodology for assessing PA and sedentary time.

Pancreatic cancer: A review of clinical diagnosis, epidemiology, treatment and outcomes

This review aims to outline the most up-to-date knowledge of pancreatic adenocarcinoma risk, diagnostics, treatment and outcomes, while identifying gaps that aim to stimulate further research in this understudied malignancy. Pancreatic adenocarcinoma is a lethal condition with a rising incidence, predicted to become the second leading cause of cancer death in some regions. It often presents at an advanced stage, which contributes to poor five-year survival rates of 2%-9%, ranking firmly last amongst all cancer sites in terms of prognostic outcomes for patients. Better understanding of the risk factors and symptoms associated with this disease is essential to inform both health professionals and the general population of potential preventive and/or early detection measures. The identification of high-risk patients who could benefit from screening to detect pre-malignant conditions such as pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms and mucinous cystic neoplasms is urgently required, however an acceptable screening test has yet to be identified. The management of pancreatic adenocarcinoma is evolving, with the introduction of new surgical techniques and medical therapies such as laparoscopic techniques and neo-adjuvant chemoradiotherapy, however this has only led to modest improvements in outcomes. The identification of novel biomarkers is desirable to move towards a precision medicine era, where pancreatic cancer therapy can be tailored to the individual patient, while unnecessary treatments that have negative consequences on quality of life could be prevented for others. Research efforts must also focus on the development of new agents and delivery systems. Overall, considerable progress is required to reduce the burden associated with pancreatic cancer. Recent, renewed efforts to fund large consortia and research into pancreatic adenocarcinoma are welcomed, but further streams will be necessary to facilitate the momentum needed to bring breakthroughs seen for other cancer sites.

Decentralized PID neural network control for a quadrotor helicopter subjected to wind disturbance

A decentralized PID neural network(PIDNN) control scheme was proposed to a quadrotor helicopter subjected to wind disturbance. First, the dynamic model that considered the effect of wind disturbance was established via Newton-Euler formalism.For quadrotor helicopter flying at low altitude in actual situation, it was more susceptible to be influenced by the turbulent wind field.Therefore, the turbulent wind field was generated according to Dryden model and taken into consideration as the disturbance source of quadrotor helicopter. Then, a nested loop control approach was proposed for the stabilization and navigation problems of the quadrotor subjected to wind disturbance. A decentralized PIDNN controller was designed for the inner loop to stabilize the attitude angle. A conventional PID controller was used for the outer loop in order to generate the reference path to inner loop. Moreover, the connective weights of the PIDNN were trained on-line by error back-propagation method. Furthermore, the initial connective weights were identified according to the principle of PID control theory and the appropriate learning rate was selected by discrete Lyapunov theory in order to ensure the stability. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate that the controller can effectively resist external wind disturbances, and presents good stability, maneuverability and robustness.

Determination of Weak Points Based on Risk Theory and Application to Transmission Network Planning

In the traditional power transmission network planning,deterministic analysis methods are widely used.In such methods,all contingencies are deemed to have the same occurrence probability,which is not reasonable.In this paper,risk assessment is introduced to the process of transmission network planning considering the probabilistic characteristics of contingencies.Risk indices are given to determine the weak points of the transmission network based on local information,such as bus risk,line overload risk,contingency severity.The indices are calculated by the optimal cost control method based on risk theory,which can help planners to quickly determine weak points in the planning and find solution to them.For simplification,only line overload violation is considered.Finally,the proposed method is validated by an IEEE-RTS test system and a real power system in China from two aspects.In the first case,the original system is evaluated by the proposed method to find the weak points,and then four planning schemes are established,among which the best scheme is selected.In the second case,four initial planning schemes are established by combining the experiences of planners,and after the evaluation by using the proposed method,the best planning scheme is improved based on the information of weak points in the initial schemes,and the risk of improved scheme is reduced from 42 531.86 MW·h per year to 4 431.26 MW·h per year.

Establishment and optimization of project investment risk income models on the basis of probability χ distribution

In this paper, two kinds of models are presented and optimized for project investment risk income on the basis of probability χ distribution. One kind of model being proved has only a maximal value and another kind being proved has no extreme values.

Transcatheter aortic valve replacement and stroke： a comprehensive review

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation （TAVR） has emerged as an alternative, rapidly evolving treatment option for patients with se- vere aortic stenosis and high surgical risk. Stroke is a devastating complication being confined mainly in the periprocedural and 30-day pe- riod following TAVR, with a lower and relatively constant frequency thereafter. Early stroke is mainly due to debris embolization during the procedure, whereas later events are associated with patient specific factors. Despite the fact that the rate of clinical stroke has been constantly decreasing compared to initial TAVR experience, modern neuro-imaging with MRI suggests that new ischemic lesions post-TAVR are almost universal. The impact of the latter is largely unknown. However, they seem to correlate with a reduction in neurocognitive function. Because TAVR is set to expand its indication to lower surgical-risk patients, stroke prophylaxis during and after TAVR becomes of paramount importance. Based on clinical and pathophysiological evidence, three lines of research are actively employed towards this direction： improvement in valve and delivery system technology with an aim to reduce manipulations and contact with the calcified aortic arch and native valve, antithrombotic therapy, and embolic protection devices. Careful patient selection, design of the procedure, and tailored antithrombotic strategies respecting the bleeding risks of this fragile population constitute the main defense against stroke following TAVR.

R & D project's investment evaluation based on real option and its value at risk

The authors looked upon it as real options and applied the VaR(Value at Risk) method to the evaluation of its risk value based on the analysis of R & D project investment characteristics,and advanced the evaluation model of the project’s return and risk according to financial theories.This paper expounded the two dimension evaluation model of project,and divided it into five decision making regions.

A risk-based methodology for the optimal placement of hazardous gas detectors

Hazardous gas detection systems play an important role in preventing catastrophic gas-related accidents in process industries. Even though effective detection technology currently exists for hazardous gas releases and a majority of process installations have a large number of sensitive detectors in place, the actual operating performance of gas detection systems still does not meet the expected requirements. In this paper, a riskbased methodology is proposed to optimize the placement of hazardous gas detectors. The methodology includes three main steps, namely, the establishment of representative leak scenarios, computational fluid dynamics(CFD)-based gas dispersion modeling, and the establishment of an optimized solution. Based on the combination of gas leak probability and joint distribution probability of wind velocity and wind direction, a quantitative filtering approach is presented to select representative leak scenarios from all potential scenarios. The commercial code ANSYS-FLUENT is used to estimate the consequence of hazardous gas dispersions under various leak and environmental conditions. A stochastic mixed-integer linear programming formulation with the objective of minimizing the total leak risk across all representative leak scenarios is proposed, and the greedy dropping heuristic algorithm(GDHA) is used to solve the optimization model. Finally, a practical application of the methodology is performed to validate its effectiveness for the optimal design of a gas detector system in a high-sulfur natural gas purification plant in Chongqing, China. The results show that an appropriate number of gas detectors with optimal cost-effectiveness can be obtained, and the total leak risk across all potential scenarios can be substantially reduced. This methodology provides an effective approach to guide the optimal placement of pointtype gas detection systems involved with either single or mixed gas releases.

New risk assessment methodology for coal mine excavated slopes

This paper presents a new risk assessment methodology for coal mine excavated slopes. This new empirical-statistical slope.stability assessment m. ethodology （SSAM! is intended for use by geotechnical engineers at both the design review and operational stages of a mine＇s life to categonse the risk of an excavated coal mine slope. A likelihood of failure is determined using a new slope stability classification system for excavated coal mine slopes developed using a database of 119 intact and failed case studies sourced from open cut coal mines in Australia. Consequence of failure is based on slope height and stand-off distance at the toe of the excavated slope. Results are presented in a new risk matrix, with slope risk being divided into low, medium and high categories. The SSAM is put forward as a new risk assess- ment methodology to assess the potential for, and consequence of, excavated coal mine slope failure. Unlike existing classification systems, assumptions about the likely failure mode or mechanism are not required. Instead, the SSAM applies an approach which compares the conditions present within the exca- vated slope face, with the known past performance of slopes with similar geotechnical and geometrical conditions, to estimate the slope＇s propensity for failure. The SSAM is novel in that it considers the depo- sitional history of strata in an excavated slope and how this sequence affects slope stability. It is further novel in that it does not require explicit measurements of intact rock, rock mass and/or defect strength to rapidly calculate a slope＇s likelihood of failure and overall risk. Ratings can be determined entirely from visual observations of the excavated slope face. The new SSAM is designed to be used in conjunction with existing slope stability assessment tools.

Analysis of Optimal Portfolio with Different Utility Function

The question of optimal portfolio is that finds the trading strategy satisfying the maximal expected utility function subject to some constraints. There is the optimal trading strategy under the risk neutral probability measure （martingale measure） if and only if there is no-arbitrage opportunity in the market. This paper argues the optimal wealth and the optimal value of expected utility with different utility function.

Analysis of professor Wang Yongyan's experience in treating hemorrhagic diseases based on traditional Chinese medicine inheritance support system

Based on the data analysis platform provided by TCMISS(V2.5),this paper analyzes the rule of prescribing drugs used by Professor Yongyan Wang for the treatment of apoplexy and deepens the understanding of his academic research on syndrome differentiation and treatment.Professor Wang’s medical records were summarized and sorted into the"Chinese Medicine inheritance Assistance system".Through the functions of"frequency statistics","drug use mode","rule analysis"and so on,the characteristics of professor Yongyan Wang's prescription for treating apoplexy were statistically analyzed.It is helpful to understand and inherit Professor Wang's academic thoughts by analyzing the data of professor Wang's medical records of apoplexy.

Risk evaluation of rock burst through theory of static and dynamic stresses superposition

Rock burst is one of the most catastrophic dynamic hazards in coal mining. A static and dynamic stresses superposition-based(SDSS-based) risk evaluation method of rock burst was proposed to pre-evaluate rock burst risk. Theoretical basis of this method is the stress criterion incurring rock burst and rock burst risk is evaluated according to the closeness degree of the total stress(due to the superposition of static stress in the coal and dynamic stress induced by tremors) with the critical stress. In addition, risk evaluation criterion of rock burst was established by defining the "Satisfaction Degree" of static stress. Furthermore,the method was used to pre-evaluate rock burst risk degree and prejudge endangered area of an insular longwall face in Nanshan Coal Mine in China. Results show that rock burst risk is moderate at advance extent of 97 m, strong at advance extent of 97-131 m,and extremely strong(i.e. inevitable to occur) when advance extent exceeds 131 m(mining is prohibited in this case). The section of two gateways whose floor abuts 15-3 coal seam is a susceptible area prone to rock burst. Evaluation results were further compared with rock bursts and tremors detected by microseismic monitoring. Comparison results indicate that evaluation results are consistent with microseismic monitoring, which proves the method's feasibility.

The Social Implications of the Degradation of the Coorong and Lower Lakes

The severe drought that Australia has endured over the past few years has impacted adversely on the environment and is the major cause of the reduction of water levels in the Coorong and Lower Lakes. The over-allocation and over-use of water in the MDB （Murray-Darling Basin） has caused the system to endure the longest period ever of reduced freshwater inflows and levels. The environmental state of Coorong and Lower Lakes is an issue that requires immediate action by governments and the surrounding community. This article will explore current data regarding the social and planning implications of the degradation of the Coorong and Lower Lakes. It primarily focuses on the social impacts that will occur if the Coorong and Lower Lakes area is significantly environmentally degraded. Drawing on Beck＇s risk theory, this paper analyses the adaptive capacity of settlements in the Coorong and Lower Lakes area and how they respond to the stresses and risks caused by environmental degradation. Economic and environmental implications will also be explored to provide an understanding of the interdependencies, This article provides a foundation and theoretical structure for further investigative research to be undertaken.

He Duoling:Spring Wind Comes Again

On linen canvas and with oil pigment, He Duoling creates lyrical depictions of youth, women, villages, frontier communities, life and crows, expressing sorrows and confusions deep in his mind. It is impressive that he has removed his passion from paintings with his chisel and only left cold and distorted images for viewers to grief and ponder over. That is really the wisdom of Sichuan natives.

Controlling the Risk of Construction Delay in the Middle East： State-of-the-Art Review

The financial crisis in late 2008 arrested economic development in the construction sector in the Middle East, with the result that investors＇ confidence in the sector is severely depressed. Delays constitute one of the highest impediments to project success. In this respect, the traditional management is no longer sufficient for construction project success. The objective of this study is to conduct a literature review to identify additional effective measures for controlling the potential delays risks in construction projects in order to maximize the opportunities for success in those projects. Thirty-six scholarly articles published between 2000 and 2011 are reviewed to identify related MDRC （measures for delays risks control）. This survey reveals that 60% of the studies are related to decision-making, performance, risk management variations and poor management knowledge of stakeholders and that 20% of these studies are undertaken in the Middle East. A further 25% of the studies are related to the lack of financial risk by stakeholders, and of these 14% are in the Middle East. A knowledge gap is identified in terms of project performance, stakeholder management and risk management, which are seen as significant measures of success in controlling project delay.