从“支持创业的投资制度创新”看创业投资起源与演进——《创业投资原理与方略——对“风险投资”范式的反思与超越》摘选之二

在2003年第12期刊载的刘健钧博士《创业投资原理与方略》摘选之一中,作者曾经指出:只有结合创业实践的历史背景,才能理解英文“venture”一词的“冒险创建企业”的新含义,并准确区分“创业资本”(venture capital)、“创业管理”(venture management)、“创业基金”(venture fund)等概念体系与“风险资本”(risk capital)、“风险管理”(risk management)、“风险基金”(risk fund)等概念体系的本质差异。而在本期刊载的摘选之二将帮助我们认识到:创业投资无论是从它的起源,还是新发展看,都是一种与传统产业投资、战略投资、信贷投资、证券投资制度相区别的“支持创业的投资制度创新”。

难忘的“风险投资一号提案”

“风险投资”这个词在今天看起来，已经不是一个新鲜词了，但是14年前，民建中央第一次把它提出来时，整个社会对此还知之甚少。

RECURRENT NEURAL NETWORK-BASED PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT

Instead of existing methods,a recurrent neural network is conceived to deal with three stages of portfolio management.Mainly,a deterministic annealing neural network is proposed for the approach to portfolio problem,which is a kind of quadratic programming.Finally,through a real example,we verify that the neural network model proposed in this paper is a good tool to solve the portfolio problem.

A generalization of exotic options pricing formulae

Exotic options, or “path-dependent” options are options whose payoff depends on the behavior of the price of the underlying between 0 and the maturity, rather than merely on the final price of the underlying, such as compound options, reset options and so on. In this paper, a generalization of the Geske formula for compound call options is obtained in the case of time-dependent volatility and time-dependent interest rate by applying martingale methods and the change of numeraire or the change of probability measure. An analytic formula for the reset call options with predetermined dates is also derived in the case by using the same approach. In contrast to partial differential equation (PDE) approach, our approach is simpler.

The Long-Run Performance of IPOs in Italy： A Comparison of Venture and Non-Venture-Backed Companies

The phenomena associated with the performance of newly listed companies has increased the interest of many researchers who have developed a vast literature on long-term underpricing and underperformance, which together with hot and cold issue markets, represent the three anomalies that have always accompanied with Initial Public Offerings （IPOs）. The objective of this work is to investigate the long-run performance of IPOs of venture and non-venture-backed companies. The analysis of a sample of 102 IPOs carried out in Italy in 1998-2005 revealed that both companies （venture-backed and non-venture-backed） showed negative values, thus, confirming the phenomenon of underperformance. During the 36 months following their listing, venture-backed companies seemed to register negative and statistically significant values both with the CARsVB methodology （-93.99%） and the Buy and Hold Abnormal Returns methodology （BHARsVB -88.37%）. Venture-backed companies, unlike non- venture-backed companies, seem to be able to restrain the losses, measured by both methods, in the first 12 months （CARsB - 12.38% -20.15% CARSNNVB; BHARsVB - 10.17%; BHARsNVB - 15.51%）. During the 36 months, however, the IPOs showed negative and statistically significant values regardless of whether they were venture or non-venture-backed. The test on the difference between the average abnormal returns of the two methodologies （CAARS and BHAARs） did not produce statistically significant results. The Wealth Relative was calculated and from the results it would appear that the portfolio of venture-backed IPOs does not register ＂brilliant＂ performances. The portfolio of 102 IPOs does not seem to beat the ＂market portfolio＂. In conclusion, therefore, the phenomenon of underperformance seems to be real in our country and is documented by strongly negative and statistically significant values obtained from the samples of IPOs analyzed.

Investment risk analysis of China's wind power industry based on pre-assessment matrix

Wind energy is a clean and sustainable energy, and wind power does not rely on fossil fuels. So there is no fuel price risk, and it, of course, does not include the environmental costs, such as carbon emissions. Because of these unique advantages, wind power has gradually become an important part of the strategy of sustainable development in China. Now with the growing voices on global greenhouse gas emission reduction, and as a clean and efficient energy, wind power has huge potential in combating climate change, energy security pressures and the needs for energy. Wind power in China began to develop from the 1980s. In the first 20 years, the speed of development was slow; but since 2004, it has had an extremely rapid growth.This paper, in order to study the development mechanism of China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s wind power industry, investigated and analyzed the status quo of wind power industry in China, and then found that （1） the development trend of wind power industry in China appears exponential growth; （2） China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s installed capacity of wind power is still smaller than that os some other countries; （3） new subsidy policies bring developing opportunities to wind power industry in China; （4） the sectors of wind power industry are in unbalanced growing; （5） the owners of proposed wind farms are too optimistic though the built wind farm had many problems. In addition, by using the methodology of Game Theory, this paper has also constructed the matrix of pre-assessing risks of China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s wind power industry to further discuss the potential risk factors within China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s wind power industry as risk factors of wind farm construction, risk factors of production of wind turbines, risk factors of parts and components manufacturing industry under risk indicators like R＆amp;amp;amp;amp;D, patents, the domestic policy, the international policy, the quality of products and the market regulation, in order to provide a scientific assessment and self-assessment tool for investors or implementers, and also to promote the further development of the wind power industry.

New Managerial Figures in the Process of Entrepreneurial Change and SME Flexibility

The world entrepreneurial scenery, being under constant evolution because of globalization and the current international crisis, has changed corporate competition, requiring companies to meet such key-factors to success as increased organizational flexibility and innovative development of their structures and products. Thus ＂NTBF＂ （New Technology Based Firms） are increasingly developing, that are able to act both as a major player in the innovation process, and as a link between the market and the production world and that need not only venture capital to cope with the large initial investment, but also such figures that, with their leadership qualities, are able to anticipate the market development. As a result, the emergence of the knowledge society has increasingly driven companies to search for new business figures, playing both the role of financing partners and of valuable support to the entrepreneur in running a business. Such distinguishing characteristics appear to be peculiar to the figure of the business angel that, thanks to the know-how and international contacts, acts not only as a simple partner but also as a leading force within the company, who is able to simplify the decision process of the business and drive it to plan profitable investment and winning strategies. Therefore, the present work is aimed at understanding how such a figure is crucial to the development of new companies operating in emerging economies being, as well, technologically advanced, as it is the case for Estonia, which is called the ＂Silicon Valley of the Baltic Sea＂. Thus, the work will first focus on the functions, organization and the benefits resulting from the involvement of business angels and, secondly, on the reasons why this figure is preferable to other operators involved in venture capital, namely venture capitalists. Finally, the good practices implemented in Europe by the various associations of business angels will be analyzed, paying particular attention to the Italian context, in order to consider the opportunity to develop, even in the Baltic Republics area, a similar institution being able to ensure, by promoting contact between entrepreneurs and business angels, the proper development of businesses, especially starting-up companies.

Establishment and optimization of project investment risk income models on the basis of probability χ distribution

In this paper, two kinds of models are presented and optimized for project investment risk income on the basis of probability χ distribution. One kind of model being proved has only a maximal value and another kind being proved has no extreme values.

Empirical study on mutual fund objective classification

Mutual funds are usually classified on the basis of their objectives. If the activities of mutual funds are consistent with their stated objectives, investors may look at the latter as signals of their risks and incomes. This work analyzes mutual fund objective classification in China by statistical methods of distance analysis and discriminant analysis; and examines whether the stated investment objectives of mutual funds adequately represent their attributes to investors. That is, if mutual funds adhere to their stated objectives, attributes must be heterogeneous between investment objective groups and homogeneous within them. Our conclusion is to some degree, the group of optimized exponential funds is heterogeneous to other groups. As a whole, there exist no significant differences between different objective groups; and 50% of mutual funds are not consistent with their objective groups.

A dynamic decision model for portfolio investment and assets management

This paper addresses a dynamic portfolio investment problem. It discusses how we can dynamically choose candidate assets, achieve the possible maximum revenue and reduce the risk to the minimum level. The paper generalizes Markowitz’s portfolio selection theory and Sharpe’s rule for investment decision. An analytical solution is presented to show how an institu- tional or individual investor can combine Markowitz’s portfolio selection theory, generalized Sharpe’s rule and Value-at-Risk (VaR) to find candidate assets and optimal level of position sizes for investment (dis-investment). The result shows that the gen- eralized Markowitz’s portfolio selection theory and generalized Sharpe’s rule improve decision making for investment.

J. M. Keynes＇ paradox： The saving glut

The present paper offers an opportunity to explore Keynes＇ contribution to our understanding of crisis by returning to him seminal contribution in the theory of the effective demand. The analysis contrasts this approach with the neoclassical orthodoxy regarding the theory of the interest rate and the relation between saving and investment. The author poses the fundamental question： Can a policy of stimulating saving promote investment？ By using the ＂Saving Paradox＂ presented in chapter sixteen, as a framework for interpreting Bernanke＇s description of the saving glut and the current account deficit of the U.S. economy, the author offers an answer that is useful for understanding the current situation. The author also shows how moral hazard plays a significant role in the current crisis.

Evaluating the Performance of Investment Funds in Turkey

It is important to determine the most appropriate levels of risk and return for small investors. For that purpose, the investment funds are very important tools to create a portfolio for small investors, to deploy the potential risks in optimal proportions, and to direct investors. In this study, the performance of 83 pieces of investment funds will be evaluated which are treated in Turkey dates from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2012 with performance evaluation methods such as Sharpe, Modigliani （M2） that is based on the standard deviation, and Treynor, T2, Jensen that is based on systematic risk （beta）, and the highest and lowest performance investment funds will be presented. The aim of the study is to examine the success of the investment fund managers whether they could estimate the course of the market well or not regarding time period. The empirical results show that the investors who invest on the funds that have negative risk premium by investing in the investment funds getting under the risk cannot get more excess return than getting the return from the risk-free interest rate as treasury bills. The result implies that it could be said that the systematic and total risks of all investment funds are low and they are not sensitive to the developments in the market, and thus, regarding funds could be called as conservative funds.

An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of the Performance of the Global Private Equity Funds Markets

Over the last decade, the private equity （PE） industry, primarily venture capital and leveraged buyout investments, has matured massively. Consequently, public interest towards that particular asset class has increased rapidly. This study seeks to empirically assess the determinants of private equity funds＇ （PEFs） performance around the world. The study comprises a panel data of 103 publicly traded PEFs globally for the period of 2007-2013. Generalized least squares （GLS） technique is employed to regress the explanatory variables. The objective is accentuated on the major contributing factors that make a PEF successful. The analysis, in this paper, examines the effect of fund size, investment size, geographical focus, and industrial specialization on return. The empirical results provide evidence that： （1） Fund size and industrial specialization were observed to have an insignificant influence on the funds＇ returns in our panels; （2） Investment size is positively related to fund performance, indicating that larger deal sizes exhibited superior performance level; and （3） Geographical focus exhibited a negative association with fund performance, leading to the conclusion that limited geographical deployment of funds or absence of market diversification resulted in a fall in funds＇ returns. Consequently, to proxy for return of funds, stock prices of listed PEFs under LPEQ listings were employed.

ARDL Investigation of Macroeconomic Mechanisms on ASEAN-5 Stock Earnings Equation

The objective of Autoregressive Distributed Lag （ARDL） investigation of macroeconomic mechanisms on ASEAN-5 stock earnings equation can contribute to analyzing and demonstrating macroeconomic forces acting a statistically and economically significant effect on rate of return of securities for a given time through the application of the ARDL approach to cointegration when the variables are mixed degrees of integration in cointegrated time series, i.e. I（0） and I（1）. This results in a long-run or a short-run relationship between macroeconomic force acting for a given time affecting 24 quarterly rates of return for listed companies in Information and Communication Technologies OCT） sector of Stock Exchange of Thailand （SET）, the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index （KLSE） index （Malaysia）, Financial Times Share Index （FTSI）, Philippine Stock Exchange （PSE）, and Jakarta Composite Index （JKSE） （Indonesia）. The impulses of three ASEAN macroeconomic forces---GDPt, EXt, and INTt acting for a given time influence the earnings of selected 23 1CT returns for listed companies on both domestic investments and outsider investments in the same period. This paper has investigated how other-concerning macroeconomic force acting might interrelate with rate of return of securities in the ICT sector, debt and financial innovations, in line with some significant formalized facts. The funding of capital inflow in part of ICT securities was statistically globally significant to recognize significant achievement in ICT specific pathways to distinction as the science of accomplishment. The public sector performing as a key purchaser of ICT security solutions related to integrate the ASEAN exchange members into modern capitalization can lead to adverse effects, such as risky investment-hub interventions due to the mixing financial systems in three ASEAN regional integrations through investments.

Ratio K: a New Way of Metering and Evaluating the Risk and Return of Stock Investment

Although widely used, both the Markowitz model and VAR (Value at Risk) model have some limitations in evaluating the risk and return of stock investment. By the analysis of the conceptions of risk and return, together with the three hypotheses of technological analysis, a novelty model of metering and evaluating the risk and return of stock investment is established. The major indicator of this model , risk-return ratio K, combines the characteristic indicators of risk and return. Regardless of the form of the risk-return probability density functions, this indicator K can always reflect the risk-return performances of the invested stocks clearly and accurately. How to use the model to make optimum investment and how to make portfolio combined with clustering analysis is also explained.

The Experimental Study on the Risk Convergence of the Entrusted Portfolios of NSSF

This paper makes use of statistical tools of parameter correlation, multi-parameter regression, and does experimental analysis on issues of risk diversification of portfolios entrusted by National Social Security Fund (NSSF). The issues are industry related investment fields distribution, the trend of capitalization movement, and investment style factors in stock selection. The results show that there are risk problems with portfolios entrusted by NSSF, which include similar investment fields distribution trend, little difference among portfolios, and high risk preference degree.

Credit Risk （Based on Analysis of Financial Statements） as the Decisive Factor Influencing the Risk of Investors

Banks as the key subjects in the financing of investment have a strong influence on the risk of investors. Hence, the solvency of the bank is of crucial importance for the risk management in the investment process. Given the fact of underdevelopment of financial markets and the lack of trading activities in securities, it is evident that the investments of banks in the developing countries mostly include lending investments. Looking at the key categories of risk that influence the overall risk of the banking business in such conditions, it can be concluded that credit risk presents the dominant and decisive factor. The aim of the paper is to select the bank determinant key factors of credit risk and to determine the extent to which non-performing loans （NPL） of bank credits affect the solvency of banks, and therefore also the risk of investors. This selection of the main determinants will be based on the analysis of financial statements. This is essential, especially taking into account the impact of the global financial crisis and the increasingly frequent falling into insolvency customers. Finally, liquidity of customers is that of the bank, and it is crucial for investors to timely identify possible risks associated with bank loans in order to proactively manage risk investment.

THE INVESTMENT RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR A SURFACE MINE

It is stipulated in the China national document, named'The Economical Appraisal Methods for Construction Projects' that dynamic analysis should dominate the project economical appraisal methods. This paper has set up a dynamic investment forecast model for Yuanbaoshan Surface Coal Mine. Based on this model, the investment reliability using simulation and analytic methods has been analysed, and the probability that the designed internal rate of return can reach 8.4%, from economic points of view, have been also studied.

R & D project's investment evaluation based on real option and its value at risk

The authors looked upon it as real options and applied the VaR(Value at Risk) method to the evaluation of its risk value based on the analysis of R & D project investment characteristics,and advanced the evaluation model of the project’s return and risk according to financial theories.This paper expounded the two dimension evaluation model of project,and divided it into five decision making regions.

On Structural Approach for the Valuation of Credit Risk

This paper presents structural approach for the valuation of credit risk. Credit risk arises whenever a borrower is expecting to use future cash flows to pay a current debt. It is closely tied to the potential return of investment, the most notable being that the yields on bonds correlate strongly to their perceived credit risk. Structural approach is based on the volatility of the total value of the firm. The credit risk to this measured in a standard way. The random time of default is defined in an intuition way. The default event is linked to the notion of the firm＇s insolvency. This approach is known to generated low credit spreads for corporate bonds close to maturity. It requires a judicious specification of the default barrier in order to get a good fit to the observed spread curves.