谈如何排除会议新闻的“风险点”

会议新闻对党的方针政策的宣传和把握要求非常严格,因此如何排除会议新闻的"风险点"也是我们在报道中不可忽略的一项内容。那么如何做到排除会议新闻的"风险点"呢?就要做好四项流程,即提前准备、全程参加、精准写稿、严格编审。

Cusp Model for Risk Analysis

Aim To assess simultaneously various risk states of a system. Methods\ Using the catastrophe and fuzzy theory, the energy and uncertainty in a system are set as two control variables and the function of the system is used as the state variable for analysis. Results and Conclusion\ A risk analysis model named the cusp model is presented. Various states regarding the safety of the system such as the accident state, no accident state and miss state can be represented at will on the cusp model.

Analysis of factors related to non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in 296 sentinel lymph node-positive Chinese breast cancer patients

Objective: Axillary lymph node dissection(ALND) may be unnecessary in 20%–60% of breast cancer patients with sentinel lymph node(NSLN) metastasis. The aim of the present study was to review the medical records of Chinese patients with early-stage breast cancer and positive NSLN metastasis to identify clinicopathological characteristics as risk factors for non-NSLN metastasis.Methods: The medical records of 2008 early-stage breast cancer patients who received intraoperative sentinel lymph node biopsy(SLNB) between 2006 and 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. These patients were clinically and radiologically lymph nodenegative and had no prior history of receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy or endocrinotherapy. The clinicopathological characteristics of patients with positive NSLN metastasis who underwent ALND were investigated.Results: In the present study, 296 patients with positive NSLN metastases underwent ALND. Positive non-NSLN metastases were confirmed in 95 patients(32.1%). On univariate analysis, ≥ 3 positive NSLN metastases(P <0.01), NSLN macrometastases(P =0.023), and lymphovascular invasion(P = 0.04) were associated with non-NSLN metastasis(P <0.05). In multivariate analysis, the number of positive SLNs was the most significant predictor of non-SLN metastasis. For patients with 0, 1, 2, or 3 associated risk factors, the non-SLN metastatic rates were 11.5%, 22.5%, 35.2%, and 73.1%, respectively.Conclusions: The number of positive NSLNs, NSLN macrometastases, and lymphovascular invasion were correlated with nonSLN metastasis. The number of positive SLNs was an independent predictor for non-NSLN metastasis. When 2 or 3 risk factors were present in one patient, the probability of non-NSLN was higher than that in the American College of Surgeons Oncology Group Z0011 trial(27.3%); thus, avoiding ALND should be considered carefully.

Differences in characteristics of patients with and without known risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in the United States

AIM： To examine the clinical characteristics of a subgroup of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma （HCC） and compare them to those with known risk factors. METHODS： We used the HCC database of 306 patients seen at our institution from January 1, 1995 to December 31, 2001. Of the 306 patients, 63 （20%, group 1） had no known risk factors （hepatitis C virus, hepatitis B virus, alcohol, hemochromatosis or cirrhosis from any cause） and 243 （group 2） had one or more risk factors. RESULTS： The median age was similar in both groups, but there were disproportionate numbers of younger （〈 30 years old）, older （〉 80 years） patients, women （33% vs 18%）, and Caucasians （81% vs 52%） in group 1 as compared to group 2. There were fewer Asians （2% vs 11%） and African Americans （13% vs 27%） in group 1. Abdominal pain （70% vs 37%） was more common while gastrointestinal bleeding （0% vs 11%） and ascites （4% vs17%） were less common in group i compared to group 2. Group 1 had larger tumor burden （median size 9.4 cm vs 5.7 cm） at the time of presentation, but there were no differences in the site （right, left or bilateral lesions）, or number of tumors between the two groups. CONCLUSION： HCC patients without identifiable risk factors have different characteristics and clinical presentation compared to those with known risk factors.Absence of cirrhosis and larger tumor burden may explain the differences in the presenting symptoms.

Focus on Undernutrition in Care Homes： A Retrospective Service Evaluation

“Let them eat cake”： a retrospective service evaluation of Focus on Undernutrition in care homes. Introduction： Undernutrition is a major cause and consequence of poor health in older people, affecting 35% of residents in care homes. Focus on Undernutrition （FoU）, a dietetic service delivered by dietetic assistants uses a multifaceted approach to undernutrition management. This study aims to evaluate FoU’s impact on undernutrition outcome measures in care homes; including FoU’s influence on weight change in residents “at risk” of undernutrition, and prevalence of undernutrition and pressure ulcers （PU）. Methods： A retrospective pragmatic service evaluation was undertaken using pseudonymised data collected over 13 years on weight, undernutrition risk and PU from long-stay residents’ notes before and six months after training （FoU）. Results： Analysis completed on 104 homes, 4,315 residents （71.3% female; mean stay 10.8 （1-278） months） in County Durham. Following FoU a significant difference was identified for： improved rate of weight change for “at risk” residents （p 〈 0.001）. Undernutrition risk significantly influenced weight change （low： B1.04 kg, E0.01 kg; moderate： B-1.79 kg, E-0.38 kg; high： B-0.83kg, E1.00 kg, Bp 〈 0.001, Ep = 0.001）. Reduced undernutrition prevalence （p 〈 0.001） from 32.7% to 29.1% residents “at risk” of undernutrition （moderate： B13.1%, E8.9%; high： B19.6%, E15.9%）. Nutrition screening significantly improved （B76.3%, E98.7%, p 〈 0.001）, reduced prevalence PU （51%, p 〈 0.001）. PU prevalence significantly increased with undernutrition severity at baseline （p 〈 0.001）, but not following FoU （p = 0.233） （low： B5%, E2.3%; moderate： B6.9%, E1.6%; high： B10.5%, E3.9%）. Odds of developing PU reduced 53% （OR： 0.47）. B：baseline; E：evaluation; OR： odds ratio. Conclusion： These results demonstrate dietetic assistants delivering FoU significantly improves weight, undernutrition and PU prevalence in care homes. Indicating FoU is an effective model for improving undernutrition outcomes, with the potential of reducing possible harm, such as PU in care homes.

A Method for Risky Multiple Attribute Decision Making with Four - dimensional Reference Point

A method based on cumulative prospect theory was proposed to solve risky multiple attribute decision making problems with Four -dimensional reference points. Considering the influence of different learning processes and corresponding features on decision-making, a new reference-learning behavior is added, and a risk-based multiple-attribute decision-making method based on four-dimensional reference point cumulative prospect theory is proposed. Firstly, according to the cumulative prospect theory, the prospect value and the decision function value of the four reference points of learning, time, evaluation value and expected value are calculated respectively, and the cumulative prospect value matrix of each program dynamic is formed. Secondly,according to the WAA operalor, Maximize the stage weighting model to obtain the integrated cumulative prospect value. Finally, on the basis of this, the alternatives are sorted according to the size of the total cumulative prospect value, and compared with other methods, the validity and scientific of the proposed method are proved.

Implementation of Food Safety Legislation in Catering Establishments in Latvia

The aim of the research was to evaluate overall quality of introduction of hazard analysis and critical control points （HACCP） prerequisites and HACCP procedures in catering sector in Latvia to reveal common problems that can provoke food-borne infection outbreaks. Certain quantitative indicators were defined and analyzed to conclude about characteristic trends related to implementation of food safety legislation. The state＇s monitoring data on surveillance of catering establishments were used. Fulfillment of legislative requirements in about 6,000 catering establishments was evaluated during time period of 2004-2009. The results of investigation were obtained with help of statistical analyses using MS Excel computer program. The results of the research suggest that most of catering establishments （e.g., 83.6% during 2009） meet the hygiene requirements only partly. Non-conformities regarding HACCP-based self-control procedures were fixed during 49.2% of inspections. The research reveals characteristic shortcomings that are established from year to year, e.g., improper hygiene of premises （established during 30%-40% of inspections, depending on the year）, poor hygiene of technological equipment （established during 27%-37% of inspections）, poor personnel hygiene （established during 11%-22% of inspections）, inadequate competence of food service personnel （established during 10%-35% of inspections）, as well as non-observance of cleaning-disinfection procedures and technological parameters for food processing （established during 11%-25% of inspections, depending on the year）. Actual shortcomings can lead to both the direct and the indirect cross-contamination of food. On the base of the research, it was concluded that further detailed assessment of potential food safety risks is relevant to establish risk-based monitoring activities in catering sector.

The uncertain analysis of micro agricultural project investment

We conduct uncertain analysis of micro agricultural project, including the break-even analysis of single product micro agricultural project, the boundary break-even points analysis of the double product micro agricultural project. We find out the critical point and the critical line of the break-everL We analyze the ability to resist risk. This analyses help the micro agricultural project＇s investors to price reasonably, forecast the earnings and make the correct decision.

Evaluation and Hotspots Identification of Shallow Groundwater Contamination Risk in the Lower Reaches of the Liaohe River Plain

As a prerequisite for groundwater protection and contamination control, evaluation of groundwater con- tamination risk was the extension of groundwater vulnerability assessment. Based on disaster theory and using shallow groundwater of the lower reaches of Liaohe River Plain as the study area, we built an evaluation index system and a contamination index model for groundwater contamination risks from the perspectives of intrinsic vulnerability, external stresses, and functional value. We used data acquisition technology （remote sensing） and spatial analysis technology （GIS） to calculate the value of groundwater contamination risks. The spatial distribution of hotspots was obtained by calculating G index. Results show that groundwater contamination is above a mid-level risk in most of the study area. Areas with extreme high risk account for 37.86%, areas with high risk 32.47%, areas with moderate risk 12.07%, areas with light risk 3.17%, and areas with slight risk 14.43%. Hotspots areas are mainly located in central Shenyang City, northwest of Xinmin City, Beizhen City and Liaozhong County. Coldspots are mainly in Panjin City, Yingkou City, Dashiqiao City, Dawa County and Panshan County. The results reflect the spatial distribution and mechanism of groundwater contamination risk in the study area and provide relative references for land use planning and groundwater resource protection in the lower reaches of the Liaohe River Plain.