Research on the Spatiotemporal Evolution,and Optimized Paths of Carbon Pressure in Northwestern Sichuan under the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals

Consolidating carbon sink capacity and reducing carbon pressure are important channels to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals actively yet prudently.In order to study the current situation of carbon pressure in the Northwestern Sichuan,we took the carbon pressure of the Aba Tibetan-Qiang autonomous prefecture(Aba prefecture)as an example and used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)approach to measure the carbon emissions,carbon uptake,and the carbon balance index(CBI)of each county-level city in Aba prefecture from 2012 to 2020.The study found that:(a)There was a continuous trend of declining carbon emissions,increased carbon uptake,and decreased CBI in Aba prefecture during the sample period,but there is a large variability among county-level cities;(b)Aba prefecture differs in the spatiotemporal distribution of carbon emissions,carbon uptake,and CBI.Based on the research results,we propose several optimized paths for alleviating the current carbon pressure situation in the Northwestern Sichuan.

Carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China:Goals,implementation path and prospects

Climate change is a common problem in human society.The Chinese government promises to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and strives to achieve carbon neutralization by 2060.The proposal of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization has led China into the era of climate economy and set off a green change with both opportunities and challenges.On the basis of expounding the objectives and specific connotation of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutralization,this paper systematically discusses the main implementation path and the prospect of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutralization.China’s path to realizing carbon neutralization includes four directions:(1)in terms of carbon dioxide emission control:energy transformation path,energy conservation,and emission reduction path;(2)for increasing carbon sink:carbon capture,utilization,and storage path,ecological governance,and land greening path;(3)in key technology development:zero-carbon utilization,coal new energy coupling,carbon capture utilization and storage(CCUS),energy storage technology and other key technology paths required to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutralization;(4)from the angle of policy development:Formulate legal guarantees for the government to promote the carbon trading market;Formulate carbon emission standards for enterprises and increase publicity and education for individuals and society.Based on practicing the goal and path of carbon peak and carbon neutralization,China will vigorously develop low carbon and circular economy and promote green and high-quality economic development;speed up to enter the era of fossil resources and promoting energy transformation;accelerate the integrated innovation of green and low-carbon technologies and promote carbon neutrality.

Study on the Carbon Effect of Agricultural Land Remediation Based on the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals

With the goal of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality,this paper studies the carbon effect of agricultural land remediation.In this paper,the carbon effect mechanism and calculation method of land consolidation,the proposed national carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,and the requirements put forward by agricultural land consolidation followed were analyzed.Then,the application research on the carbon effect accounting of agricultural land consolidation was conducted.Besides,the application process of carbon effect accounting of land consolidation with the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Therefore,we hope this study will play an effective role to advance the carbon effect research in the regulation of agricultural land.

Research on Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Technological Pathways in the Chinese Papermaking Industry

Against the backdrop of the dual carbon goals,the papermaking industry in China faces significant pressure to reduce emissions and lower carbon intensity.Based on historical data of energy consumption in the pulp and paper industry in China from 2000 to 2020,this study analyzed the current status of paper production and energy consumption in China.Two methods were employed to predict the growth trend of paper production in China,and three carbon dioxide emission accounting methods were compared.The study used an accounting method based on the industry’s overall energy consumption and predicted the carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry from 2021 to 2060 under three scenarios.The study identified the timing for achieving carbon peak and proposed the measures for carbon neutrality.The results indicated that:(1)the CO_(2)emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry in 2020 were 111.98 million tons.(2)Under low-demand,high-demand,and baseline scenarios,the papermaking industry is expected to achieve carbon peak during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period.(3)In 2060,under the three scenarios,CO_(2)emissions from the papermaking industry will decrease by 11%-31%compared to the baseline year.However,there will still be emissions of 72-93 million tons,requiring reductions in fossil energy consumption at the source,increasing forestry carbon sequestration and utilization of Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage(CCUS)technology,and taking measures such as carbon trading to achieve carbon neutrality.

Research on Carbon Reduction Strategy of China’s Industrial Chain with the Goal of Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality

In order to achieve the development goals of emission peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060,carbon reduction measures should be implemented in the whole industrial chain.Based on the existing research,the basic logic of carbon reduction in the industrial chain is analyzed,and then the specific strategies for carbon reduction in the industrial chain are proposed,including:reducing the use of fossil energy and vigorously developing the new energy industry;reducing carbon through energy conservation,industrial upgrading,development of circular economy,and application of carbon capture technology;reducing carbon through low-carbon transformation of logistics industry,innovation of trading methods,and promotion of low-carbon green consumption.The external guarantee system for carbon reduction includes the introduction of relevant policies,laws and regulations,and the use of carbon emission trading mechanism.

Progress, challenge and significance of building a carbon industry system in the context of carbon neutrality strategy

Carbon dioxide storage and utilization has become an inevitable trend and choice for sustainable development under the background of global climate change and carbon neutrality.Carbon industry which is dominated by CO_(2) capture,utilization and storage/CO_(2) capture and storage(CCUS/CCS)is becoming a new strategic industry under the goal of carbon neutrality.The sustainable development of carbon industry needs to learn from the experiences of global oil and gas industry development.There are three types of“carbon”in the earth system.Black carbon is the CO_(2) that has not been sequestered or used and remains in the atmosphere for a long time;grey carbon is the CO_(2) that has been fixed or permanently sequestered in the geological body,and blue carbon is the CO_(2) that could be converted into products for human use through biological,physical,chemical and other ways.The carbon industry system covers carbon generation,carbon capture,carbon transportation,carbon utilization,carbon sequestration,carbon products,carbon finance,and other businesses.It is a revolutionary industrial field to completely eliminate“black carbon”.The development of carbon industry technical system takes carbon emission reduction,zero carbon,negative carbon and carbon economy as the connotation,and the construction of a low-cost and energy-efficient carbon industry system based on CCUS/CCS are strategic measures to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality and clean energy utilization globally.This will promote the“four 80%s”transformation of China's energy supply,namely,to 2060,the percentage of zero-carbon new energy in the energy consumption will be over 80%and the CO_(2) emission will be decreased by 80%to ensure the carbon emission reduction of total 80×10^(8) t from the percentage of carbon-based fossil energy in the energy consumption of over 80%,and the percentage of CO_(2) emission from energy of over 80%in 2021.The carbon industry in China is facing three challenges,large CO_(2) emissions,high percentage of coal in energy consumption,and poor innovative system.Three strategic measures are proposed accordingly,including:(1)unswervingly develop carbon industrial system and ensure the achievement of carbon neutrality as scheduled by 2060;(2)vigorously develop new energy sources and promote a revolutionary transformation of China’s energy production and consumption structure;(3)accelerate the establishment of scientific and technological innovation system of the whole CO_(2) industry.It is of great significance for continuously optimization of ecological environment and construction of green earth and ecological earth to develop the carbon industry system,utilize clean energy,and achieve the strategic goal of global carbon neutrality.

Policy and Management of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality:A Literature Review

The vision of reaching a carbon peak and achieving carbon neutrality is guiding the low-carbon transition of China’s socioeconomic system.Currently,a research gap remains in the existing literature in terms of studies that systematically identify opportunities to achieve carbon neutrality.To address this gap,this study comprehensively collates and investigates 1105 published research studies regarding carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.In doing so,the principles of development in this area are quantitively analyzed from a space–time perspective.At the same time,this study traces shifts and alterations in research hotspots.This systematic review summarizes the priorities and standpoints of key industries on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Furthermore,with an emphasis on five key management science topics,the scientific concerns and strategic demands for these two carbon emission-reduction goals are clarified.The paper ends with theoretical insights on and practical countermeasures for actions,priority tasks,and policy measures that will enable China to achieve a carbon-neutral future.This study provides a complete picture of the research status on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,as well as the research directions worth investigating in this field,which are crucial to the formulation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality policies.

Major contribution to carbon neutrality by China’s geosciences and geological technologies

In the context of global climate change,geosciences provide an important geological solution to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality,China’s geosciences and geological technologies can play an important role in solving the problem of carbon neutrality.This paper discusses the main problems,opportunities,and challenges that can be solved by the participation of geosciences in carbon neutrality,as well as China’s response to them.The main scientific problems involved and the geological work carried out mainly fall into three categories:(1)Carbon emission reduction technology(natural gas hydrate,geothermal,hot dry rock,nuclear energy,hydropower,wind energy,solar energy,hydrogen energy);(2)carbon sequestration technology(carbon capture and storage,underground space utilization);(3)key minerals needed to support carbon neutralization(raw materials for energy transformation,carbon reduction technology).Therefore,geosciences and geological technologies are needed:First,actively participate in the development of green energy such as natural gas,geothermal energy,hydropower,hot dry rock,and key energy minerals,and develop exploration and exploitation technologies such as geothermal energy and natural gas;the second is to do a good job in geological support for new energy site selection,carry out an in-depth study on geotechnical feasibility and mitigation measures,and form the basis of relevant economic decisions to reduce costs and prevent geological disasters;the third is to develop and coordinate relevant departments of geosciences,organize and carry out strategic research on natural resources,carry out theoretical system research on global climate change and other issues under the guidance of earth system science theory,and coordinate frontier scientific information and advanced technological tools of various disciplines.The goal of carbon neutrality provides new opportunities and challenges for geosciences research.In the future,it is necessary to provide theoretical and technical support from various aspects,enhance the ability of climate adaptation,and support the realization of the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.

Consumer behavior patterns of carbon neutral label using the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology

China has paid considerable attention to developing and implementing a carbon labeling system in response to increasing environmental issues such as global warming.This paper aims to provide a theoretical basis for formulating and implementing a carbon labeling system in China through a study of consumer acceptance behavior and its influencing factors.This paper constructed an extended model of consumers’acceptance behavior of carbon neutral labels based on the theories and methods of Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology(UTAUT)and analyzed the effects of five factors(carbon label cognition,performance expectancy,effort expectancy,social influence,and facilitating factors)on consumer carbon neutral label acceptance and adoption.The structural equation model analysis revealed that carbon label cognition,performance expectancy,social influence,and facilitating factors significantly,and positively impact consumers’acceptance of carbon neutral labels.Moreover,carbon label cognition,performance expectancy,and facilitating factors significantly,and positively affect consumers’carbon neutral label adoption behavior.Meanwhile,carbon label cognition,and effort expectancy have no significant impact on consumers’willingness to accept carbon neutral labels,which in turn significantly impacts consumers’carbon neutral label adoption behavior.According to the research findings,increasing the promotion of carbon labeling and improving the practical strategies and management recommendations for carbon label design are proposed.

Research on the Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization Model in Colleges and Universities:Taking China University of Geosciences(Beijing)as an Example

The“3060”goal demonstrates China’s responsibility in actively responding to global climate,enhances China’s voice and influence in climate governance,and sets an example of energy conservation and emission reduction for developing countries.As the main institutions that educate people for the Party and the country,colleges and universities have the responsibility to explore the realization path of carbon peak and carbon neutralization against the new problems encountered in the practice of energy conservation and emission reduction in colleges and universities.In response to the national strategy and the action plan of the Ministry of Education,taking the carbon practice of China University of Geosciences(Beijing)as the starting point,this paper conducts benchmarking research on the path of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in universities through the ecological factor method,campus carbon footprint,and questionnaire analysis.

Research progress on construction of monitoring system and platform for Carbon peak and Carbon neutral in Chinese fisheries

In order to thoroughly implement the national research on peak carbon dioxide emissions’carbon neutral strategy,this paper uses China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI)network database to search the literature reports on the theme of carbon neutrality in peak carbon dioxide emissions,and makes bibliometric analysis from key words,institutions and research fields.The literature mainly focuses on 2020-2021;the research hotspots are peak carbon dioxide emissions,carbon neutrality,and carbon emission.After analysis,the relevant research in the fishery field is still in the initial stage,and the construction of monitoring system and platform needs to be further strengthened to provide technical support for realizing the goal of"double carbon"in the fishery field in the future.

Development Strategy and Countermeasures of China's CBM Industry under the Goal of “Carbon Peak and Neutrality”

China’s coalbed methane(CBM) industry is in an extremely important “climbing period” and “strategic opportunity period”,which can be generally characterized by “three low and one small”:low degree of exploration and development,low adaptability of main technology,low return on investment and small development scale.Under the “carbon peak and neutrality” background,the development status of CBM industry is systematically combed.The resources,technology,management problems and reasons are analyzed.Strategies and countermeasures to accelerate the industrial development are put forward according to the factors such as efficient development of resources,major technical breakthrough,talent team training,policy formulation and implementation,return on investment and so on.The existing problems are as follows:(a) The overall occurrence conditions in China are complicated and the development is difficult compared with the other countries.(b) The research precision accuracy of CBM resource conditions is not enough.(c) The adaptability of technology is poor.(d) The management mode is not suitable.In view of these problems,this paper puts forward the “two steps” development strategy and the technical and management countermeasures of “five in one”.The corresponding “five in one” technology and management countermeasures are the formulation and implementation of relevant safeguard measures in accordance with the principle of collaborative innovation in five aspects:resources,technology,talents,policies and investment.Through the above measures,the dream and grand blueprint of CBM industry shall be realized.

The role of new energy in carbon neutral

Carbon dioxide is an important medium of the global carbon cycle,and has the dual properties of realizing the conversion of organic matter in the ecosystem and causing the greenhouse effect.The fixed or available carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is defined as"gray carbon",while the carbon dioxide that cannot be fixed or used and remains in the atmosphere is called"black carbon".Carbon neutral is the consensus of human development,but its implementation still faces many challenges in politics,resources,technology,market,and energy structure,etc.It is proposed that carbon replacement,carbon emission reduction,carbon sequestration,and carbon cycle are the four main approaches to achieve carbon neutral,among which carbon replacement is the backbone.New energy has become the leading role of the third energy conversion and will dominate carbon neutral in the future.Nowadays,solar energy,wind energy,hydropower,nuclear energy and hydrogen energy are the main forces of new energy,helping the power sector to achieve low carbon emissions."Green hydrogen"is the reserve force of new energy,helping further reduce carbon emissions in industrial and transportation fields.Artificial carbon conversion technology is a bridge connecting new energy and fossil energy,effectively reducing the carbon emissions of fossil energy.It is predicted that the peak value of China’s carbon dioxide emissions will reach 110×10^(8) t in 2030.The study predicts that China’s carbon emissions will drop to 22×10^(8) t,33×10^(8) t and 44×10^(8) t,respectively,in 2060 according to three scenarios of high,medium,and low levels.To realize carbon neutral in China,seven implementation suggestions have been put forward to build a new"three small and one large"energy structure in China and promote the realization of China’s energy independence strategy.

Urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under carbon peak and neutrality goals:A case study of Guangzhou,China

Urban construction land has relatively high human activity and high carbon emissions.Research on urban construction land prediction under carbon peak and neutrality goals(hereafter“dual carbon”goals)is important for territorial spatial planning.This study analyzed quantitative relationships between carbon emissions and urban construction land,and then modified the construction land demand prediction model.Thereafter,an integrated model for urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals was developed,where urban construction land suitability was modified based on carbon source and sink capacity of different land-use types.Using Guangzhou as a case study,the integrated model was validated and applied to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of its urban construction land during 2030–2060 under baseline development and“dual carbon”goals scenarios.The simulation results showed that Guangzhou’s urban construction land expanded rapidly until 2030,with the spatial pattern not showing an intensive development trend.Guangzhou’s urban construction land expansion slowed during 2030–2060,with an average annual growth rate of 0.2%,and a centralized spatial pattern trend.Under the“dual carbon”goal scenario,Guangzhou’s urban construction land evolved into a polycentric development pattern in 2030.Compared with the baseline development scenario,urban construction land expansion in Guangzhou during 2030–2060 is slower,with an average annual growth rate of only 0.1%,and the polycentric development pattern of urban construction land was more prominent.Furthermore,land maintenance and growth,that is,a carbon sink,is more obvious under the“dual carbon”goals scenario,with the forest land area nearly 10.6%higher than that under the baseline development scenario.The study of urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals provides a scientific decision-making support tool for territorial spatial planning,aiding in quantifying territorial spatial planning.

Forecast of natural gas supply and demand in China under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”

As a kind of clean energy which creates little carbon dioxide, natural gas will play a key role in the process of achieving “Peak Carbon Dioxide Emission” and “Carbon Neutrality”. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP) model was improved by using new parameters including comprehensive energy efficiency and terminal effective energy consumption. The Back Propagation(BP) Neural Network–LEAP model was proposed to predict key data such as total primary energy consumption, energy mix, carbon emissions from energy consumption, and natural gas consumption in China. Moreover, natural gas production in China was forecasted by the production composition method. Finally, based on the forecast results of natural gas supply and demand, suggestions were put forward on the development of China’s natural gas industry under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”. The research results indicate that under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China’s primary energy consumption will peak(59.4×10^(8)tce) around 2035, carbon emissions from energy consumption will peak(103.4×10^(8)t) by 2025, and natural gas consumption will peak(6100×10^(8)m^(3)) around 2040, of which the largest increase will be contributed by the power sector and industrial sector. China’s peak natural gas production is about(2800–3400)×10^(8)m^(3), including(2100–2300)×10^(8)m^(3)conventional gas(including tight gas),(600–1050)×10^(8)m^(3)shale gas, and(150–220)×10^(8)m^(3)coalbed methane. Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the natural gas consumption and production of China will further increase, showing a great potential of the natural gas industry.

Auction mechanism design of the Chinese national carbon market for carbon neutralization

The carbon market auction mechanism is an important policy tool for carbon pricing and a key mechanism that supports carbon emission neutralization,especially for China.A few systematic studies exist on China’s carbon market auction mechanism.This article focuses on the five auction mechanisms in Chinese pilot emission trading schemes(ETS),reviews the structures and bidding situation of the five-pilot auction mechanism,extracts the similarities,and analyzes their different features,such as auction mode,bidding scale,participants,pricing mode,auction frequency,and so on.This study conducts an in-depth analysis of the carbon allowance auction mechanism in the Guangdong pilot ETS of China,including its development and the evolution of the key elements,its operational effects,and related disputes.Finally,this study puts forward the trend forecast and suggestions for the Chinese allowance auction mechanism,such as the time window of launching national allowance auctions,the most likely auction mode,carbon pricing,and bidding revenue management.Carbon pricing by auction is the most powerful policy tool for addressing carbon emissions reduction and implementing the Glasgow Climate Pact.

The Goals of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality and China's New Energy Revolution

Based on the full consideration of both domestic and global environments and conditions,the adherence to the conviction that lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets,and the comprehensive weighing of pros and cons,the Chinese government has made a major strategic decision to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,which is crucial to the overall green transformation of the economy and society and the long-term benefits of the Chinese nation.With the new energy revolution and energy mix diversification driven by the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,nonfossil energy sources centered on photovoltaic energy will gradually dominate the energy mix,while the status of electricity and hydrogen energy will be significantly enhanced and the consumption of coal and petroleum will decline significantly.Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals are both challenges and opportunities for China.Specific challenges are embodied in the large pressure of economic and energy restructuring,the rising manufacturing costs,the difficulties in withdrawing coal-fired power stations,the possibility of unstable grid operations due to large-scale integration of photovoltaic and wind power into the power distribution network,and the supply risks of key metals,while specific opportunities are emerging in the strong competitiveness of photovoltaic and wind power equipment,lower dependence on foreign petroleum and gas supply and accelerated low-carbon green transformation.China should strengthen the top-level design of the path to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,encourage innovation of green low-carbon technologies,accelerate economic and energy restructuring,strictly restrict the construction of new high-emission and energy-intensive projects,and steadily promote the adjustment and withdrawal of the existing high-emission and energy-intensive projects.

China and the World under the Goals of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality:Green and Low-Carbon Transition,Green Finance,Carbon Market,and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

China has always tried to maintain multilateralism and advocated working together to deal with global climate change through multilateral mechanisms.Although China's announcement to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 comes as no surprise,its commitment to carbon neutrality does.As the period between its carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is far shorter than that in the developed countries,China's economic and energy structures need to be adjusted toward the low-carbon and carbon-free end with unprecedented efforts.To that end,China should define the responsibilities of local authorities and industrial entities to promote the orderly accomplishment of carbon peaking in all regions and industries.To supply the huge investments needed to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,China has an urgent need to accelerate the development of green finance and a national carbon emissions trading market,guide the rational allocation of resources,and channel resources to eco-friendly projects for green and low-carbon development.At the same time,China and the international community should strengthen dialogue and coordination,promote international cooperation on the way to carbon neutrality,formulate widely acceptable policy guidelines as soon as possible,and avoid unilateral measures that may cause conflicts.

煤炭工业数字智能绿色三化协同模式与新质生产力建设路径

煤炭工业是支撑我国经济社会高速发展和保障国家能源安全的压舱石与稳定器,承担着能源保供与支撑新能源稳定发展的时代使命,煤炭工业的高质量发展既是落实我国能源安全新战略与产业体系变革的关键,也是推进能源产业可持续发展与促进国家高质量发展的基础。当前我国煤炭工业高质量发展已取得阶段成效,能源保供成绩显著,产业结构不断优化,科技创新能力显著提高,绿色开发与清洁高效利用持续推进。但当前煤炭工业仍面临诸多挑战,发展水平与中国式现代化的国家需求差距较大,可持续发展受多重因素制约,数字技术与煤炭开发利用尚未深度融合,智能化建设仍处于示范培育阶段,绿色化发展不平衡且矛盾突出,煤炭工业的转型升级仍然任重道远。结合当前煤炭工业发展现状与挑战,提出了数字化、智能化、绿色化(三化)协同的发展模式,明确了煤炭新质生产力的核心内涵,构建了三化协同发展煤炭新质生产力的总体架构,阐述了通过数字化变革生产要素创新配置、智能化引领关键技术跨越突破、绿色化主导传统产业深度转型三大要素催生煤炭新质生产力的技术路径,提出了六大技术体系:通过研发全产业链数据高效采集与深度治理技术体系,打通煤炭产—运—储—销—用全流程的数据壁垒;通过研发构建煤炭行业知识图谱与智能决策管控技术体系,深度挖掘煤炭产业上下游各业务场景的关联关系与价值,为煤炭生产利用全流程的自主决策与智能控制奠定基础;开展煤炭资源智能-绿色-高效开发技术体系、煤炭产业安全协同保障技术体系、矿区生态智能监测-预警-修复技术体系、煤炭柔性开发与清洁低碳利用技术体系研究,实现煤炭开发利用全产业链、全流程的三化协同发展,培育形成煤炭新质生产力,为煤炭工业的整体形象带来根本性变革提升。

Projected land use changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at the carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets

Based on historical land use for eight periods from 1980 to 2020 and the projected land use under seven Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs:SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP4-3.4,SSP4-6.0,and SSP5-8.5)from 2021 to 2100,we conducted a study on past and future land use changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP).This work aims to reveal the land use changes during the carbon peak(2021-2040)and carbon neutrality(2051-2070)periods and at the end of the 21st century(2081-2100).The results show that:(1)in the historical period(1980-2020),the land use types in the QTP were grassland(1475×10^(3)km^(2),58.2%),barren land(685×10^(3)km^(2),27.0%),forest land(243×10^(3)km^(2),9.6%),water(114×10^(3)km^(2),4.5%),cropland(18.6×10^(3)km^(2),0.7%)and urban land(0.3×10^(3)km^(2),0.01%).(2)Relative to the baseline period(1995-2014),the area of grassland is projected to decrease by 0.7%(SSP4-6.0)-5.4%(SSP2-4.5)(0.5-3.9%of the total area of the QTP),2.8%(SSP4-6.0)-12.5%(SSP3-7.0)(2.1-9.4%of the total area of the QTP)and 6.1%(SSP4-6.0)-21.7%(SSP4-3.4)(4.6-16.4%of the total area of the QTP)in the future three periods.In contrast,the forest land area is projected to increase,by approximately 2.5%(SSP4-6.0)to 30.1%(SSP3-7.0)(0.3-4.3%of the total area of the QTP),9.2%(SSP4-6.0)to 56.5%(SSP2-4.5)(1.3-8.0%of the total area of the QTP),and 21.2%(SSP4-6.0)to 72.8%(SSP2-4.5)(3.0-10.2%of the total area of the QTP)in the future three periods,respectively.(3)Approximately 0.4(SSP4-6.0)to 6.9%(SSP5-8.5),0.9(SSP4-6.0)to 2.7%(SSP4-3.4),and 0.04(SSP5-8.5)to 3.5%(SSP1-1.9)of land is expected to convert from grassland to forest land in the future three periods,respectively.The shift from grassland to forest land area is likely to enhance the carbon sink potential of the QTP in the future period.