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What Is the “China Model” of Financial Reform?
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作者 应展宇 《China Economist》 2008年第5期61-71,共11页
Based on a comparative study of China’s three-decade financial system reform and the financial reform model of Russia and selected Eastern European countries, we found noticeable discrepancies between China and other... Based on a comparative study of China’s three-decade financial system reform and the financial reform model of Russia and selected Eastern European countries, we found noticeable discrepancies between China and other transitional countries in respect to objective setting, path and sequence selection, power sources and advancement strategy. We conclude that a "China model" of nancial system reform does exist. The formation and evolution of the "China model" is closely related to China’s special political and economic environment. More importantly, it is significantly influenced by China’s overall economic reform model as well. 展开更多
关键词 FINANCIAL system REFORM FINANCIAL development china model
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Establish a “China model” of Pension Security Inquiry Analysis
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作者 Fei Jiang Cuiping Li Chunyan Yu 《International English Education Research》 2015年第7期69-71,共3页
From a global perspective, local awareness and People Standard in three ways, conditions to establish and improve a social security system covering urban and rural areas has matured its localization requirements have ... From a global perspective, local awareness and People Standard in three ways, conditions to establish and improve a social security system covering urban and rural areas has matured its localization requirements have become more evident. Therefore, to explore the social security system with Chinese characteristics model, not only is the key to solve China's current social conflicts, as well as building a socialist harmonious society and a necessary step in the inevitable choice. Globalization and global governance movement accelerated economic globalization, social security, face the opportunities and challenges, China should establish a “China model” of pension security. 展开更多
关键词 Global VISION Local AWARENESS PEOPLE oriented THOUGHT china model
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Work Hard to Enrich and Bring to Perfection “China Model” of Human Rights Protection
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作者 LUO HAOCAI 《The Journal of Human Rights》 2010年第4期5-6,共2页
These are excerpts of the speech President Luo Haocai delivered at the Second National Work-Experience Exchange Conference of Human Rights Research Organizations on April 28, 2010.
关键词 of Human Rights Protection Work Hard to Enrich and Bring to Perfection china model
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Reservoir characteristics and formation model of Upper Carboniferous bauxite series in eastern Ordos Basin,NW China 被引量:1
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作者 LI Yong WANG Zhuangsen +2 位作者 SHAO Longyi GONG Jiaxun WU Peng 《Petroleum Exploration and Development》 SCIE 2024年第1期44-53,共10页
Through core observation,thin section identification,X-ray diffraction analysis,scanning electron microscopy,and low-temperature nitrogen adsorption and isothermal adsorption experiments,the lithology and pore charact... Through core observation,thin section identification,X-ray diffraction analysis,scanning electron microscopy,and low-temperature nitrogen adsorption and isothermal adsorption experiments,the lithology and pore characteristics of the Upper Carboniferous bauxite series in eastern Ordos Basin were analyzed to reveal the formation and evolution process of the bauxite reservoirs.A petrological nomenclature and classification scheme for bauxitic rocks based on three units(aluminum hydroxides,iron minerals and clay minerals)is proposed.It is found that bauxitic mudstone is in the form of dense massive and clastic structures,while the(clayey)bauxite is of dense massive,pisolite,oolite,porous soil and clastic structures.Both bauxitic mudstone and bauxite reservoirs develop dissolution pores,intercrystalline pores,and microfractures as the dominant gas storage space,with the porosity less than 10% and mesopores in dominance.The bauxite series in the North China Craton can be divided into five sections,i.e.,ferrilite(Shanxi-style iron ore,section A),bauxitic mudstone(section B),bauxite(section C),bauxite mudstone(debris-containing,section D)and dark mudstone-coal section(section E).The burrow/funnel filling,lenticular,layered/massive bauxite deposits occur separately in the karst platforms,gentle slopes and low-lying areas.The karst platforms and gentle slopes are conducive to surface water leaching,with strong karstification,well-developed pores,large reservoir thickness and good physical properties,but poor strata continuity.The low-lying areas have poor physical properties but relatively continuous and stable reservoirs.The gas enrichment in bauxites is jointly controlled by source rock,reservoir rock and fractures.This recognition provides geological basis for the exploration and development of natural gas in the Upper Carboniferous in the study area and similar bauxite systems. 展开更多
关键词 North china Craton eastern Ordos Basin Upper Carboniferous bauxite series reservoir characteristics formation model gas accumulation
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Implication of community-level ecophysiological parameterization to modelling ecosystem productivity:a case study across nine contrasting forest sites in eastern China 被引量:1
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作者 Minzhe Fang Changjin Cheng +2 位作者 Nianpeng He Guoxin Si Osbert Jianxin Sun 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第1期1-11,共11页
Parameterization is a critical step in modelling ecosystem dynamics.However,assigning parameter values can be a technical challenge for structurally complex natural plant communities;uncertainties in model simulations... Parameterization is a critical step in modelling ecosystem dynamics.However,assigning parameter values can be a technical challenge for structurally complex natural plant communities;uncertainties in model simulations often arise from inappropriate model parameterization.Here we compared five methods for defining community-level specific leaf area(SLA)and leaf C:N across nine contrasting forest sites along the North-South Transect of Eastern China,including biomass-weighted average for the entire plant community(AP_BW)and four simplified selective sampling(biomass-weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_BW],basal area weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_AW],biomass-weighted average over all tree species[AT_BW]and basal area weighted average over all tree species[AT_AW]).We found that the default values for SLA and leaf C:N embedded in the Biome-BGC v4.2 were higher than the five computational methods produced across the nine sites,with deviations ranging from 28.0 to 73.3%.In addition,there were only slight deviations(<10%)between the whole plant community sampling(AP_BW)predicted NPP and the four simplified selective sampling methods,and no significant difference between the predictions of AT_BW and AP_BW except the Shennongjia site.The findings in this study highlights the critical importance of computational strategies for community-level parameterization in ecosystem process modelling,and will support the choice of parameterization methods. 展开更多
关键词 BIOME-BGC Community traits Forest Ecosystems model parameterization
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Assessment of Crop Yield in China Simulated by Thirteen Global Gridded Crop Models
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作者 Dezhen YIN Fang LI +3 位作者 Yaqiong LU Xiaodong ZENG Zhongda LIN Yanqing ZHOU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第3期420-434,共15页
Global gridded crop models(GGCMs) have been broadly applied to assess the impacts of climate and environmental change and adaptation on agricultural production. China is a major grain producing country, but thus far o... Global gridded crop models(GGCMs) have been broadly applied to assess the impacts of climate and environmental change and adaptation on agricultural production. China is a major grain producing country, but thus far only a few studies have assessed the performance of GGCMs in China, and these studies mainly focused on the average and interannual variability of national and regional yields. Here, a systematic national-and provincial-scale evaluation of the simulations by13 GGCMs [12 from the GGCM Intercomparison(GGCMI) project, phase 1, and CLM5-crop] of the yields of four crops(wheat, maize, rice, and soybean) in China during 1980–2009 was carried out through comparison with crop yield statistics collected from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Results showed that GGCMI models generally underestimate the national yield of rice but overestimate it for the other three crops, while CLM5-crop can reproduce the national yields of wheat, maize, and rice well. Most GGCMs struggle to simulate the spatial patterns of crop yields. In terms of temporal variability, GGCMI models generally fail to capture the observed significant increases, but some can skillfully simulate the interannual variability. Conversely, CLM5-crop can represent the increases in wheat, maize, and rice, but works less well in simulating the interannual variability. At least one model can skillfully reproduce the temporal variability of yields in the top-10 producing provinces in China, albeit with a few exceptions. This study, for the first time, provides a complete picture of GGCM performance in China, which is important for GGCM development and understanding the reliability and uncertainty of national-and provincial-scale crop yield prediction in China. 展开更多
关键词 global gridded crop model historical crop yield china multi-model evaluation
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Analysis of spatial distribution characteristics and driving factors of ethnicminority villages in China using geospatial technology and statistical models
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作者 SHAO Dandan ZOH Kyungjin 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第8期2770-2789,共20页
This study aims to reveal the spatial structural characteristics of 1,652 Ethnic-Minority Villages(EMV)in China and to analyze the mechanisms driving their spatial heterogeneity.EMV are a special type of settlement sp... This study aims to reveal the spatial structural characteristics of 1,652 Ethnic-Minority Villages(EMV)in China and to analyze the mechanisms driving their spatial heterogeneity.EMV are a special type of settlement space that preserve a large number of historical traces of the ethnic culture of ancient China.They are important carriers of China’s excellent traditional culture and are key to the implementation of rural revitalization strategies.In this study,1652 EMV in China were selected as the research subjects.The Nearest Neighbor Index,kernel density,and spatial autocorrelation index were employed to reveal the spatial structural characteristics of minority villages.Neural network models,spatial lag models,and geographical detectors were used to analyze the formation mechanism of spatial heterogeneity in EMV.The results indicate that:(1)EMV exhibit significant spatial differentiation characterized by“single-core with multiple surrounding sub-centers,”“polarization between east and west,”“decreasing quantity from southwest to east coast to northeast to northwest,”and“large dispersion with small agglomeration.”(2)EMV are mainly distributed in areas rich in intangible cultural heritage,with high vegetation coverage and low altitude,far from central cities,and having limited arable land and an underdeveloped economy and transportation,particularly in shaded or riverbank areas.(3)Distance from the nearest river(X3),distance from central cities(X8),national intangible cultural heritage(X9),and NDVI(X10)were the main driving factors affecting the spatial distribution of EMV,whereas elevation(X1)and GDP(X5)had the weakest influence.As EMV are a relatively unique territorial spatial unit,the identification of their spatial heterogeneity characteristics not only deepens the research content of settlement geography,but also involves the assessment,protection,and development of Minority Villages,which is of great significance for the inheritance and utilization of excellent ethnic cultures in the era. 展开更多
关键词 Ethnic-Minority Villages Spatial structure Settlement geography Neural network model Spatial econometric model GeoDetector
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Species-specific and generalized allometric biomass models for eight Fagaceae species in the understory of evergreen broadleaved forests in subtropical China
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作者 Shengwang Meng 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第4期156-170,共15页
Quantifying the biomass of saplings in the regeneration component is critical for understanding biogeochemical processes of forest ecosystems.However,accurate allometric equations have yet to be developed in sufficien... Quantifying the biomass of saplings in the regeneration component is critical for understanding biogeochemical processes of forest ecosystems.However,accurate allometric equations have yet to be developed in sufficient detail.To develop species-specific and generalized allometric equations,154 saplings of eight Fagaceae tree species in subtropical China’s evergreen broadleaved forests were collected.Three dendrometric variables,root collar diameter(d),height(h),and crown area(ca)were applied in the model by the weighted nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression method.Using only d as an input variable,the species-specific and generalized allometric equations estimated the aboveground biomass reasonably,with R _(adj)^(2) values generally>0.85.Adding h and/or ca improved the fitting of some biomass components to a certain extent.Generalized equations showed a relatively large coefficient of variation but comparable bias to species-specific equations.Only in the absence of species-specific equations at a given location are generalized equations for mixed species recommended.The developed regression equations can be used to accurately calculate the aboveground biomass of understory Fagaceae regeneration trees in China’s subtropical evergreen broadleaved forests. 展开更多
关键词 ALLOMETRY Aboveground biomass ADDITIVITY Regeneration Subtropical china
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Assessment of desertification sensitivity using an improved MEDALUS model in Northern China
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作者 NingJing Tan CaiXia Zhang +1 位作者 YingYing Wu ZhenTing Wang 《Research in Cold and Arid Regions》 CSCD 2024年第3期141-148,共8页
Assessment of land sensitivity to desertification is an important step to support desertification monitoring and control.Based on the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use(MEDALUS)model,we defined four quality in... Assessment of land sensitivity to desertification is an important step to support desertification monitoring and control.Based on the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use(MEDALUS)model,we defined four quality indicators(soil,climate,vegetation and management)to evaluate the sensitivity of land in northern China to desertification.We improved MEDALUS via excluding cities from the areas at risk of desertification by means of defining a threshold value for population density.The framework,validated in northern China,further optimizes the model to link priority areas and land restoration programmed to support desertification control.We found that the four indicators influenced and restricted each other,which jointly affected the distribution of desertification sensitivity in northern China.The spatial distribution of sensitivity in northern China showed large regional differences,with clear boundaries and concentrated distributions of regions with high and low sensitivity;the overall sensitivity decreased,with some areas rated as having moderate,severe,and extremely severe sensitivity changing to slight sensitivity;and the influence weight was much higher for the management quality index than for the climate,vegetation,and soil indexes.This suggests that management was the main factor that affected desertification sensitivity in northern China,and that climate factors exacerbated sensitivity,but the factors that are driving the spatial heterogeneity of the influencing factors need further study。 展开更多
关键词 DESERTIFICATION Sensitivity MEDALUS Factor analysis Northern china
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Strong Earthquake Model of North China Craton: A Case of 2023 Mw 5.5 Earthquake in Pingyuan County, Shandong Province, China
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作者 LIU Guanshen LU Renqi +2 位作者 HE Dengfa FANG Lihua ZHANG Yang 《Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition)》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第S01期39-40,共2页
North China is one of the high-risk areas for destructive strong earthquakes in China's Mainland, with a history of numerous significant seismic events. On August 6, 2023, an Mw5.5 earthquake struck Pingyuan Count... North China is one of the high-risk areas for destructive strong earthquakes in China's Mainland, with a history of numerous significant seismic events. On August 6, 2023, an Mw5.5 earthquake struck Pingyuan County, Dezhou City, in Shandong Province, China. This earthquake was the largest in the eastern North China Craton(NCC) since the Tangshan earthquake of 1976. Due to the absence of surface ruptures, the fault responsible for the Pingyuan Mw5.5 earthquake remains unclear. To reveal the subsurface geological structure near the earthquake epicenter, this study utilized highresolution two-dimensional seismic reflection profiles to interpret pre-existing faults. 展开更多
关键词 Pingyuan earthquake seismogenic fault relocation earthquakes North china Craton
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Interpreting Larix principis-rupprechtii radial growth in northern China based on the Vaganov-Shashkin model
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作者 Jiachuan Wang Shuheng Li +4 位作者 Qiang Li Yili Guo Yijie Han Qi Liu Yiqi Zhao 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第3期99-110,共12页
Changes in annual radial growth is an important indication of climate change. Dendroclimatology studies in northern China have focused on linear statistical analysis,but lacking studies based on the process of ring fo... Changes in annual radial growth is an important indication of climate change. Dendroclimatology studies in northern China have focused on linear statistical analysis,but lacking studies based on the process of ring formation to clarify the radial growth of trees. Tree-ring width standard chronology(STD) was established using samples of Larix principis-rupprechtii collected at 2303 m altitude on Luya Mountain. Using the Vaganov-Shashkin(VS) model to simulate growth and development, the internal physiological mechanism of radial growth is identified. It was concluded that:(1) the growing season of L. principis-rupprechtii was May to September;(2) soil moisture was a significant factor in the early and late growing seasons, and temperature was the dominant factor in its main growth period;and(3) formation of narrow ring widths was closely related to drought stress, the development of wide ring widths will be restricted by increasing future temperatures. The VS model is applicable for radial growth simulation of subalpine coniferous forests and for guiding the cultivation of local tree species in the future. 展开更多
关键词 Vaganov-Shashkin model Larix principis-rupprechti Tree-ring width Annual growth
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Evaluation and projection of marine heatwaves in the South China Sea: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble
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作者 Kai Liu Kang Xu +4 位作者 Tongxin Han Congwen Zhu Nina Li Anboyu Guo Xiaolu Huang 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第7期15-25,共11页
This study evaluates the performance of 16 models sourced from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating marine heatwaves(MHWs)in the South China Sea(SCS)during the historical period(1982−2... This study evaluates the performance of 16 models sourced from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating marine heatwaves(MHWs)in the South China Sea(SCS)during the historical period(1982−2014),and also investigates future changes in SCS MHWs based on simulations from three shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585)using CMIP6 models.Results demonstrate that the CMIP6 models perform well in simulating the spatial-temporal distribution and intensity of SCS MHWs,with their multi-model ensemble(MME)results showing the best performance.The reasonable agreement between the observations and CMIP6 MME reveals that the increasing trends of SCS MHWs are attributed to the warming sea surface temperature trend.Under various SSP scenarios,the year 2040 emerges as pivotal juncture for future shifts in SCS MHWs,marked by distinct variations in changing rate and amplitudes.This is characterized by an accelerated decrease in MHWs frequency and a notably heightened increase in mean intensity,duration,and total days after 2040.Furthermore,the projection results for SCS MHWs suggest that the spatial pattern of MHWs remains consistent across future periods.However,the intensity shows higher consistency only during the near-term period(2021−2050),while notable inconsistencies are observed during the medium-term(2041−2070)and long-term(2071−2100)periods under the three SSP scenarios.During the nearterm period,the SCS MHWs are characterized by moderate and strong events with high frequencies and relatively shorter durations.In contrast,during the medium-term period,MHWs are also characterized by moderate and strong events,but with longer-lasting and more intense events under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.However,in the long-term period,extreme MHWs become the dominant feature under the SSP585 scenario,indicating a substantial intensification of SCS MHWs,effectively establishing a near-permanent state. 展开更多
关键词 marine heatwaves South china Sea global warming future projections CMIP6
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Exploring mechanism of hidden,steep obliquely inclined bedding landslides using a 3DEC model:A case study of the Shanyang landslide in Shaanxi Province,China
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作者 Jia-yun Wang Zi-long Wu +3 位作者 Xiao-ya Shi Long-wei Yang Rui-ping Liu Na Lu 《China Geology》 CAS CSCD 2024年第2期303-314,I0001-I0003,共15页
Catastrophic geological disasters frequently occur on slopes with obliquely inclined bedding structures(also referred to as obliquely inclined bedding slopes),where the apparent dip sliding is not readily visible.This... Catastrophic geological disasters frequently occur on slopes with obliquely inclined bedding structures(also referred to as obliquely inclined bedding slopes),where the apparent dip sliding is not readily visible.This phenomenon has become a focal point in landslide research.Yet,there is a lack of studies on the failure modes and mechanisms of hidden,steep obliquely inclined bedding slopes.This study investigated the Shanyang landslide in Shaanxi Province,China.Using field investigations,laboratory tests of geotechnical parameters,and the 3DEC software,this study developed a numerical model of the landslide to analyze the failure process of such slopes.The findings indicate that the Shanyang landslide primarily crept along a weak interlayer under the action of gravity.The landslide,initially following a dip angle with the support of a stable inclined rock mass,shifted direction under the influence of argillization in the weak interlayer,moving towards the apparent dip angle.The slide resistance effect of the karstic dissolution zone was increasingly significant during this process,with lateral friction being the primary resistance force.A reduction in the lateral friction due to karstic dissolution made the apparent dip sliding characteristics of the Shanyang landslide more pronounced.Notably,deformations such as bending and uplift at the slope’s foot suggest that the main slide resistance shifts from lateral friction within the karstic dissolution zone to the slope foot’s resistance force,leading to the eventual buckling failure of the landslide.This study unveils a novel failure mode of apparent dip creep-buckling in the Shanyang landslide,highlighting the critical role of lateral friction from the karstic dissolution zone in its failure mechanism.These insights offer a valuable reference for mitigating risks and preventing disasters related to obliquely inclined bedding landslides. 展开更多
关键词 LANDSLIDE Steep obliquely inclined bedding slope Failure mode Failure mechanism Apparent dip creep-buckling Lateral friction 3DEC model Landslide numerical model Geological hazards survey engineering
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Seismogenic model of the 2023 M_(W)5.5 Pingyuan earthquake in North China Plain and its tectonic implications
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作者 Shiguang Wang Libo Han +5 位作者 Junju Xie Liping Fan Xiang Huang Jinmeng Bi Hongfeng Yang Lihua Fang 《Earthquake Science》 2024年第6期499-513,共15页
The 6 August 2023 M_(W)5.5 Pingyuan earthquake is the largest earthquake in the central North China Plain(NCP)over the past two decades.Due to the thick sedimentary cover,no corresponding active faults have been repor... The 6 August 2023 M_(W)5.5 Pingyuan earthquake is the largest earthquake in the central North China Plain(NCP)over the past two decades.Due to the thick sedimentary cover,no corresponding active faults have been reported yet in the epicenter area.Thus,this earthquake presents a unique opportunity to delve into the buried active faults beneath the NCP.By integrating strong ground motion records,high-precision aftershock sequence relocation,and focal mechanism solutions,we gain insights into the seismotectonics of the Pingyuan earthquake.The aftershocks are clustered at depths ranging from 15 to 20 km and delineate a NE-SW trend,consistent with the distribution of ground motion records.A NE-SW nodal plane(226°)of the focal mechanism solutions is also derived from regional waveform inversion,suggesting that the mainshock was dominated by strike-slip motion with minor normal faulting component.Integrating regional geological data,we propose that an unrecognized fault between the NE-SW trending Gaotang and Lingxian-Yangxin faults is the seismogenic fault of this event.Based on the S-wave velocity structure beneath the NCP,this fault probably extends into the lower crust with a high angle.Considering the tectonic regime and stress state,we speculate that the interplay of shear strain between the Amurian and South China blocks and the hot upwelling magma from the subducted paleo Pacific flat slab significantly contributed to the generation of the Pingyuan earthquake. 展开更多
关键词 Pingyuan earthquake aftershock relocation focal mechanism S-wave velocity structure North china Plain
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Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China's Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model
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作者 HOU Xiyong SONG Baiyuan +2 位作者 ZHANG Xueying WANG Xiaoli LI Dong 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第4期579-598,共20页
Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover chang... Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions. 展开更多
关键词 land use and land cover change(LUCC) multi-scenario simulation system dynamic-future land use simulation(SD-FLUS)model SSP-RCP scenarios model coupling china's coastal zone
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Projecting the Dynamic Trends of Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome:Modeling the Epidemic in Sichuan Province, China
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作者 Yuan Li Qinxi Liu +3 位作者 Rongsheng Luan Yi Yang Tao Wu Bihui Yang 《Biomedical and Environmental Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第9期1003-1014,共12页
Objective Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the current status and dynamic trends of the human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)prevalence in Sichuan,the second most heavily affected province in China,a... Objective Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the current status and dynamic trends of the human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)prevalence in Sichuan,the second most heavily affected province in China,and to explore future interventions.Methods The epidemiological,behavioral,and population census data from multiple sources were analyzed to extract inputs for an acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(AIDS)epidemic model(AEM).Baseline curves,derived from historical trends in HIV prevalence,were used,and the AEM was employed to examine future intervention scenarios.Results In 2015,the modeled data suggested an adult HIV prevalence of 0.191%in Sichuan,with an estimated 128,766 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,983 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.Considering current high-risk behaviors,the model predicts an increase in the adult prevalence to 0.306%by 2025,projecting an estimated 212,168 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,555 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.Conclusion Heterosexual transmission will likely emerge as the primary mode of AIDS transmission in Sichuan.Furthermore,we anticipate a stabilization in the incidence of AIDS with a concurrent increase in prevalence.Implementing comprehensive intervention measures aimed at high-risk groups could effectively alleviate the spread of AIDS in Sichuan. 展开更多
关键词 HIV/AIDS AIDS Epidemic model Heterosexual transmission Sichuan province
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Investigation of Maxima Assumptions in Modelling Tropical Cyclone- Induced Hazards in the South China Sea
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作者 WEN Ze-guo WANG Fu-ming +1 位作者 WAN Jing YANG Fan 《China Ocean Engineering》 SCIE EI CSCD 2024年第3期491-504,共14页
The present study aims to examine the suitability of two commonly used assumptions that simplify modelling metoceanconditions for designing offshore wind turbines in the South China Sea (SCS). The first assumption ass... The present study aims to examine the suitability of two commonly used assumptions that simplify modelling metoceanconditions for designing offshore wind turbines in the South China Sea (SCS). The first assumption assumes thatjoint N-year extreme wind and wave events can be independently estimated and subsequently combined. The secondone assumes peak wind and waves can be modelled as occurring simultaneously during a tropical cyclone (TC) event.To better understand the potential TC activity, a set of 10000 years synthetic TC events are generated. The wind fieldmodel and the Mike 21 spectral wave model are employed to model the TC-induced hazards. Subsequently, theeffect of the assumptions is evaluated by analyzing the peak structural response of both monopile and semisubmersibleoffshore wind turbines during TC events. The results demonstrate that the examined assumptions are generally accurate.By assessing the implications of these assumptions, valuable insights are obtained, which can inform andimprove the modelling of TC-induced hazards in the SCS region. 展开更多
关键词 tropical cyclone numerical wave modelling hazards offshore wind turbines structural response
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Construction and validation of a risk-prediction model for anastomotic leakage after radical gastrectomy: A cohort study in China
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作者 Jinrui Wang Xiaolin Liu +6 位作者 Hongying Pan Yihong Xu Mizhi Wu Xiuping Li Yang Gao Meijuan Wang Mengya Yan 《Laparoscopic, Endoscopic and Robotic Surgery》 2024年第1期34-43,共10页
Objectives:Anastomotic leakage(AL)stands out as a prevalent and severe complication following gastric cancer surgery.It frequently precipitates additional serious complications,significantly influencing the overall su... Objectives:Anastomotic leakage(AL)stands out as a prevalent and severe complication following gastric cancer surgery.It frequently precipitates additional serious complications,significantly influencing the overall survival time of patients.This study aims to enhance the risk-assessment strategy for AL following gastrectomy for gastric cancer.Methods:This study included a derivation cohort and validation cohort.The derivation cohort included patients who underwent radical gastrectomy at Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital,Zhejiang University School of Medicine,from January 1,2015 to December 31,2020.An evidence-based predictor questionnaire was crafted through extensive literature review and panel discussions.Based on the questionnaire,inpatient data were collected to form a model-derivation cohort.This cohort underwent both univariate and multivariate analyses to identify factors associated with AL events,and a logistic regression model with stepwise regression was developed.A 5-fold cross-validation ensured model reliability.The validation cohort included patients from August 1,2021 to December 31,2021 at the same hospital.Using the same imputation method,we organized the validation-queue data.We then employed the risk-prediction model constructed in the earlier phase of the study to predict the risk of AL in the subjects included in the validation queue.We compared the predictions with the actual occurrence,and evaluated the external validation performance of the model using model-evaluation indicators such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC),Brier score,and calibration curve.Results:The derivation cohort included 1377 patients,and the validation cohort included 131 patients.The independent predictors of AL after radical gastrectomy included age65 y,preoperative albumin<35 g/L,resection extent,operative time240 min,and intraoperative blood loss90 mL.The predictive model exhibited a solid AUROC of 0.750(95%CI:0.694e0.806;p<0.001)with a Brier score of 0.049.The 5-fold cross-validation confirmed these findings with a calibrated C-index of 0.749 and an average Brier score of 0.052.External validation showed an AUROC of 0.723(95%CI:0.564e0.882;p?0.006)and a Brier score of 0.055,confirming reliability in different clinical settings.Conclusions:We successfully developed a risk-prediction model for AL following radical gastrectomy.This tool will aid healthcare professionals in anticipating AL,potentially reducing unnecessary interventions. 展开更多
关键词 Stomach neoplasms Anastomotic leak Risk factors Prediction model Risk assessment
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Reactive transport modeling constraints on the complex genesis of a lacustrine dolomite reservoir:A case from the Eocene Qaidam Basin,China
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作者 Ying Xiong Bo Liu +5 位作者 Xiu-Cheng Tan Zheng-Meng Hou Jia-Shun Luo Ya-Chen Xie Kai-Bo Shi Kun-Yu Wu 《Petroleum Science》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第4期2240-2256,共17页
Reactive transport modeling(RTM)is an emerging method used to address geological issues in diagenesis research.However,the extrapolation of RTM results to practical reservoir prediction is not sufficiently understood.... Reactive transport modeling(RTM)is an emerging method used to address geological issues in diagenesis research.However,the extrapolation of RTM results to practical reservoir prediction is not sufficiently understood.This paper presents a case study of the Eocene Qaidam Basin that combines RTM results with petrological and mineralogical evidence.The results show that the Eocene Xiaganchaigou Formation is characterized by mixed siliciclastic-carbonate-evaporite sedimentation in a semiclosed saline lacustrine environment.Periodic evaporation and salinization processes during the syngeneticpenecontemporaneous stage gave rise to the replacive genesis of dolomites and the cyclic enrichment of dolomite in the middle-upper parts of the meter-scale depositional sequences.The successive change in mineral paragenesis from terrigenous clastics to carbonates to evaporites was reconstructed using RTM simulations.Parametric uncertainty analyses further suggest that the evaporation intensity(brine salinity)and particle size of sediments(reactive surface area)were important rate-determining factors in the dolomitization,as shown by the relatively higher reaction rates under conditions of higher brine salinity and fine-grained sediments.Combining the simulation results with measured mineralogical and reservoir physical property data indicates that the preservation of original intergranular pores and the generation of porosity via replacive dolomitization were the major formation mechanisms of the distinctive lacustrine dolomite reservoirs(widespread submicron intercrystalline micropores)in the Eocene Qaidam Basin.The results confirm that RTM can be effectively used in geological studies,can provide a better general understanding of the dolomitizing fluid-rock interactions,and can shed light on the spatiotemporal evolution of mineralogy and porosity during dolomitization and the formation of lacustrine dolomite reservoirs. 展开更多
关键词 Reactive transport modeling Lacustrine dolomite Mineralogy and porosity evolution Reservoir genesis
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Evaluation of soil erosion vulnerability in Hubei Province of China using RUSLE model and combination weighting method
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作者 YANG Yanpan TIAN Pei +3 位作者 JIA Tinghui WANG Fei YANG Yang HUANG Jianwu 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第10期3318-3336,共19页
Soil erosion has been recognized as a critical environmental issue worldwide.While previous studies have primarily focused on watershed-scale soil erosion vulnerability from a natural factor perspective,there is a not... Soil erosion has been recognized as a critical environmental issue worldwide.While previous studies have primarily focused on watershed-scale soil erosion vulnerability from a natural factor perspective,there is a notable gap in understanding the intricate interplay between natural and socio-economic factors,especially in the context of spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear impacts of human-land interactions.To address this,our study evaluates the soil erosion vulnerability at a provincial scale,taking Hubei Province as a case study to explore the combined effects of natural and socio-economic factors.We developed an evaluation index system based on 15 indicators of soil erosion vulnerability:exposure,sensitivity,and adaptability.In addition,the combination weighting method was applied to determine index weights,and the spatial interaction was analyzed using spatial autocorrelation,geographical temporally weighted regression and geographical detector.The results showed an overall decreasing soil erosion intensity in Hubei Province during 2000 and 2020.The soil erosion vulnerability increased before 2000 and then.The areas with high soil erosion vulnerability were mainly confined in the central and southern regions of Hubei Province(Xiantao,Tianmen,Qianjiang and Ezhou)with obvious spatial aggregation that intensified over time.Natural factors(habitat quality index)had negative impacts on soil erosion vulnerability,whereas socio-economic factors(population density)showed substantial spatial variability in their influences.There was a positive correlation between soil erosion vulnerability and erosion intensity,with the correlation coefficients ranging from-0.41 and 0.93.The increase of slope was found to enhance the positive correlation between soil erosion vulnerability and intensity. 展开更多
关键词 Soil erosion vulnerability RUSLE model Combination weighting method Driving factors Spatial heterogeneity
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