Spatiotemporal pattern of climate change in the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor from 1901 to 2018

The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC) is an important part of China's Belt and Road Initiative and an important area for global ecology and biodiversity. In this study, the annual and seasonal spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation in the CMEC over the past century were investigated using linear tendency estimation, the Mann-Kendall mutation test, the T-test, and wavelet analysis based on the monthly mean climatic data from 1901 to 2018 released by the Climatic Research Unit(CRU) of the University of East Anglia, UK. The results show that the CMEC demonstrated a trend of warming and drying over the past 100 years, and the rate of change in Myanmar was stronger than that in Yunnan Province of China. The warming rate was 0.039 ℃/10a. Precipitation decreased at a rate of -6.1 mm/10a. From the perspective of spatial distribution, temperature was high in the central and southern, low in the north of the CMEC, and the high-temperature centers were mainly distributed in the southern plain and river valley. Precipitation decreased from west to east and from south to north of the CMEC. From the perspective of the rate of change, warming was stronger in central and northern CMEC than in southern and northeastern CMEC. The rate of precipitation decline was stronger in the central and western regions than in the eastern region. This study provides a scientific reference for the CMEC to address climate change and ensure sustainable social and economic development and ecological security.

The research on the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar economic corridor： opportunity and challenge

This paper discusses the opportunity and challenge faced by the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar economic corridor. The opportunities include the complementary of economic structure and natural resources pattern, as well as the geographic linkage. The challenges include the funding shortage, the lack of political trust, the divergence on the investment priority, and the vulnerable ethnic situation. Finally, this paper looks into the future and expresses the optimistic view on the economic corridor.

The China and Mongolia Cultural Communication Status Quo and Development Trend in the Context of the Construction of the China–Mongolia–Russia Economic Corridor

As a part of the"The Belt and Road"initiative,the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor is a tailored mode of regional cooperation,combined with the construction of the Russia Eurasia Channel and the Mongolia Grassland Road.This paper analyses the Chinese and Mongolian cultural communication status quo and development trend in the Context of the construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor.It then proposes that the two countries make great efforts in following three aspects to create new prosperity for China-Mongolia cultural communication and cooperation:strengthening the folk cultural communication and cooperation by consolidating its folk communication basis,vigorously promoting folk cultural diplomacy and improving the level of folk cultural communications,and consolidating the existing cooperation and creating new cultural communication through this cooperation mechanism.

Elevating the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor

China and Myanmar have pledged to jointly accelerate construction of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor under the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative.The pledge came when Ning Jizhe,deputy head of China’s National Development and Reform Commission,visited Myanmar from November 24 to 27,2018.

The Belt and Road Initiative and the Concept of an Economic Corridor along the Southern Silk Road

The Belt and Road Initiative requires the urgent revival of the Southern Silk Road. This means a good understanding of its rich historical connotations and its comprehensive and mutual-beneficial functions. Starting from a very early period, the Southern Silk Road has played an important role in the history of Yunnan and has been characterized by using cowry as money. This paper proposes the development of a new economic corridor along the Southern Silk Road from Xi'an in the north, via Chengdu and Kunming, to South Asia and Southeast Asia thus linking the Silk Road Economic Belt to the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road. This will bring about a new phase of all-around opening-up linking domestic and overseas markets via land and sea.

The Significance and Measures of Building the China—Mongolia—Russia Economic Corridor

In September 2014,Chinese leaders introduced the initiative to build the China,Mongolia and Russia Economic Corridor during the SCO summit in Dushanbe.In March 2015,China issued The prospect and action of promoting to build the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road,which officially made building the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor a strategic

Analysis on Construction and Recommendations for Development of Yiwan Economic Corridor

Yiwan Economic Corridor is located in the core area of western Jiangxi Province. It is an important part of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River city clusters and the open cooperation pilot zone of Jiangxi and Hunan provinces. The construction of the Yiwan Economic Corridor is an important measure to implement the strategy of " revitalizing and strengthening cities through developing industries". It is required to deepen the understanding in ideology,grasp the orientation in the thought,and properly deal with relationship in the promotion process. This paper evaluated the advantages and challenges in the construction of Yiwan Economic Corridor,and came up with some recommendations for development of Yiwan Economic Corridor.

工业集聚对县域产业绿色高质量发展的空间溢出效应研究——来自长江三峡生态经济走廊的证据

工业集聚不仅可以提升产业生产效率,还有效减少了产业发展过程中对于环境的污染,对县域经济高质量发展具有重要意义。论文基于2010-2020年长江三峡生态经济走廊42个县(市、区)的面板数据,测算出产业绿色高质量发展水平,利用空间杜宾模型检验了工业集聚对县域产业绿色高质量发展的影响。结果表明:(1)长江三峡生态经济走廊产业绿色高质量发展存在明显的空间相关性,且在研究期间内,空间相关性不断增强;(2)工业集聚对县域产业绿色高质量发展呈现显著正向的空间溢出效应,且工业集聚度增加1%,本地产业绿色高质量发展水平提升16.4%,周边县域提升17.7%;(3)该区域重庆县域工业集聚对产业绿色高质量发展产生了显著的抑制作用,控制变量对产业绿色高质量发展的影响也存在一定的区域异质性。基于此,针对长江三峡生态经济走廊建设提出建议以实现县域经济高质量发展。

G30(甘肃段)科技创新走廊城市经济科技耦合协调分析

为研究G30(甘肃段)科技创新走廊城市科技与经济的协同发展关系,文章构建经济发展水平与科技创新能力耦合协调模型,并实证分析2014-2019年8个节点城市经济发展水平与科技创新能力之间的耦合度、耦合协调度,以及节点城市间的经济科技综合发展耦合协调度。研究发现:8个节点城市内部经济发展水平与科技创新能力之间处于高强度耦合状态,二者的耦合协调度呈波动增加趋势,但整体水平较低,处于耦合协调的第1和第2等级,还未形成良性互动发展;节点城市两两之间经济科技综合耦合协调也不高,处于耦合协调的第1、第2、第3等级。文章从空间布局、产业布局、创新资源布局、创新链与产业链融合发展4个方面提出推动G30(甘肃段)科技创新走廊建设和节点城市发展的对策建议。

内蒙古参与“中蒙俄经济走廊”建设的对策研究

内蒙古是“一带一路”特别是“中蒙俄经济走廊”的重要组成部分,加强与蒙古国、俄罗斯合作,既是国家发展大局的需要,也是内蒙古高质量发展的要求。“一带一路”倡议逐步向纵深推进,中国也加大了对沿线国家直接投资的力度。因受到沿线国家在政治、经济、文化等多种因素的差异化影响,中国开展的对外投资具有巨大的风险和挑战。中蒙俄三个国家深入进行经济合作,共建基础设施、共同构建经济风险预防机制、共同打造文旅融合,为中蒙俄三国的经济合作创造了坚实的基础。本文的研究内容是“一带一路”背景下,中蒙俄三国合作的现状,以及内蒙古参与“中蒙俄经济走廊”建设中的优势,在此基础上分析了“中蒙俄经济走廊”对内蒙古发展的促进作用,三国间要强化政府之间的合作、完善对外投资的法律制度,建立经济风险预防机制,加强专业人才的培养,有效防范内蒙古对外投资所带来的风险。

河西走廊水资源-生态环境-社会经济系统耦合关系及时空分异

推进水资源、生态环境与社会经济系统协调发展为促进区域经济增长、社会进步和生态和谐与高质量发展提供技术支撑。文章基于修正耦合协调度模型评价河西走廊水资源-生态环境-社会经济系统耦合协调水平,运用灰色关联度模型和泰尔指数揭示驱动因素和空间异质性,并利用趋势面映射耦合协调度全域分布。结果表明:(1)由经济发展带动水资源-经济-生态系统综合发展水平逐年上升,综合发展指数由2006年0.29增长至2021年0.65。(2)河西走廊水资源子系统、经济子系统、生态子系统两两之间的耦合协调度呈不同趋势上升,水资源-生态-经济系统耦合度发展处于颉颃阶段向磨合阶段升级;协调度经历“轻度失调衰退-濒临失调衰退-勉强协调发展-初级协调发展-中级协调发展”五个阶段。(3)区域空间异质性逐渐发展为减小趋势,2021年空间分布表现出东南部发展优于西北部格局,金昌和张掖逐步成为河西发展优势区域。(4)城市化率、排污总量、节水灌溉面积对河西走廊水资源-生态环境-社会经济耦合发展起到较大的驱动作用。研究结果对河西走廊经济-生态-水资源系统协同发展具有一定的借鉴意义。

中巴经济走廊安全风险网络级联失效的动态鲁棒性研究

为了研究信息动态更新对中巴经济走廊安全风险网络关键节点及风险动态传导过程的影响,建立了基于有向复杂网络的中巴经济走廊安全风险传导理论模型,设计风险负载重分配算法和动态鲁棒性评价指标,分析4种不同节点攻击策略下中巴经济走廊安全风险网络级联失效鲁棒性。仿真结果表明:高介数中心度节点攻击策略对安全风险网络具有更强的摧毁效果;个别安全风险指标被随机激活导致风险网络极易失控,使得总体安全风险演化趋势更难预测;初始负载是影响安全风险网络级联失效的关键因素;当失效比例小于50%时,随机攻击策略失控效果大于蓄意攻击效果。

沿江货运铁路通道布局及实施方案研究

完善沿江货运铁路通道布局对于充分发挥铁路绿色低碳优势、缓解长江三峡“肠梗阻”问题、加快构建综合立体交通走廊、支撑长江经济带经济发展等具有重要意义。研究首先分析沿江货运铁路通道现状及存在问题;其次,从综合交通的角度出发,统筹考虑铁路趋势运量、“水转铁”运量、“公转铁”运量进行近期(2030年)、远期(2035年)、远景(2050年)需求预测;最后,提出铁路通道布局和分期实施方案,即规划沿江货运铁路通道由北辅助通道、中通道(轻快通路、普货通路、专线通路)、南辅助通道组成。按照“两步走”进行实施,一是对长荆铁路、鸦宜铁路进行扩能改造,二是规划建设常岳九铁路等构建沿江货运专线通路。

中蒙俄K3/K4次国际班列对沿线城市可达性的影响

以中蒙俄铁路K3/K4次班列沿线节点城市和区域为研究对象,分析了其节点城市与区域的可达性,并计算了节点城市之间的经济联系强度。结果表明,节点城市时间可达性呈现两端高、中间低的趋势,与节点城市到目的地城市的出行时间成正比;节点城市的经济可达性呈现两端低、中间高的趋势;K3/K4班列沿线有4个较明显的经济中心区,且中国城市之间的经济联系强度和俄罗斯西部城市之间的经济联系强度较高,此外中国与蒙古国之间的经济联系弱于蒙古国与俄罗斯之间的经济联系。受边境检查和转向架更换情况的影响,中蒙边境的二连浩特、扎门乌德和蒙俄边境的苏赫巴托尔、纳乌什基在上述计算结果中均表现出明显的特殊性。

中国与沙特阿拉伯在中巴经济走廊建设中的第三方市场合作

作为“一带一路”倡议的合作伙伴,中国与沙特基于各自比较优势、政治共识和共同利益,在中巴经济走廊建设中开展了第三方市场合作。两国政府在战略规划上的对接,共同打造物流运输枢纽的意愿,以及合作的溢出效应,赋予了中沙双方共建中巴经济走廊的动力。中国与沙特开展的第三方市场合作有助于提升国际信誉,形成聚旗效应,吸引更多国家参与;有助于推动以中巴经济走廊为枢纽的广大南亚—西亚中间区域一体化和互联互通;有助于丰富第三方市场合作模式的内涵,向世界树立合作典范。中沙共建中巴经济走廊存在合作潜力,但也面临分离主义、恐怖主义威胁和党派斗争等巴基斯坦国内安全和政治风险、经济安全风险和地缘政治风险。中国应采取充分调研、谨慎评估、提高投资项目分配的均衡性、加强安保等措施来应对各种风险,推动中巴经济走廊事务局采取更多举措以增信释疑,应对地缘政治风险。

中国—东盟经贸合作:西部陆海新通道的现状考察

西部陆海新通道承担着中国西部内陆腹地通达东盟、连接世界的桥梁和枢纽的重任。基于2017-2021年省际—国别(地区)的细分产品贸易数据,从“设施联通及贸易畅通”“产业优势互补和贸易升级”“产业链供应链布局”三个方面考察了西部陆海新通道沿线省份与东盟国家的经贸合作情况。研究发现,通道沿线交通基础设施建设迅速推进,物流功能不断完善。东盟国家对沿线省市出口结构升级明显,沿线省市面临高、低技术生产环节双重压力。东盟国家与沿线省市产业优势互补性较强,但集成电路产业上游的进口来源地较为集中,一定程度上面临被“卡脖子”风险。应在“以通道促贸易”基础上进一步实现“以贸易聚产业”,加快促进产业和贸易结构优化升级,围绕通道积极谋划产业链供应链布局。

Evaluation and prediction of engineering construction suitability in the Chinae-Mongoliae-Russia economic corridor

It is proposed to build a high-speed railway through the China‒Mongolia‒Russia economic corridor(CMREC)which runs from Beijing to Moscow via Mongolia.However,the frozen ground in this corridor has great impacts on the infrastructure stability,especially under the background of climate warming and permafrost degradation.Based on the Bayesian Network Model(BNM),this study evaluates the suitability for engineering construction in the CMREC,by using 21 factors in five aspects of terrain,climate,ecology,soil,and frozen-ground thermal stability.The results showed that the corridor of Mongolia's Gobi and Inner Mongolia in China is suitable for engineering construction,and the corridor in Amur,Russia near the northern part of Northeast China is also suitable due to cold and stable permafrost overlaying by a thin active layer.However,the corridor near Petropavlovsk in Kazakhstan and Omsk in Russia is not suitable for engineering construction because of low freezing index and ecological vulnerability.Furthermore,the sensitivity analysis of influence factors indicates that the thermal stability of frozen ground has the greatest impact on the suitability of engineering construction.These conclusions can provide a reference basis for the future engineering planning,construction and risk assessment.

缅甸地缘环境变化与中缅印度洋新通道建设研究

缅甸是中国重要的周边邻国,是推进“一带一路”倡议以及实现国内国际双循环的重要节点国家。在新冠疫情导致中缅边境封控之下,中缅印度洋新通道建设依旧突飞猛进。然而这种态势并没有获得应有的重视,国家和云南省政府层面依然将中缅经济走廊建设作为首选。这显然是对缅甸自2000年以来的国别地缘环境变化理解不足。文章借助国别地缘环境分析框架和研究路径,通过阐述缅甸基本国情、主要关系与矛盾,揭示在内外因素跨尺度、多领域、多元地缘体互动等共同作用下缅甸地缘环境的演变,即2000—2010年外压内稳和2011—2021年外斗内乱。缅甸整体地缘环境变化为中缅印度洋新通道建设提供了绝佳的机遇。从地缘环境视角论证了中缅印度洋新通道建设的必要性、可行性及其战略定位。文章不仅深化了对中缅印度洋新通道的新认识,且为大力推进中缅印度洋新通道建设提供了科学依据。

基于SWOT的中缅印度洋通道瑞丽与孟定清水河对比研究

瑞丽出境的中缅“人字形”经济走廊(简称“人字形”走廊)与孟定清水河出境的中缅印度洋新通道(简称“新通道”)建设与发展上的极大反差引起学界广泛关注。鉴于此,搭建SWOT的国际通道分析理论与框架,对“人字形”走廊与新通道的差异部分(即瑞丽—腊戌与孟定清水河—腊戌)进行SWOT要素阐述和关键影响因素的对比分析,以揭示二者的比较优势与不同时期侧重选择的地理逻辑。研究表明:1)不同时空序列下中缅印度洋通道建设的关键影响因素存在显著差别。历史域上的关键影响因素有明显的“地理决定论意味”,以地形、高程、河流、地质等为代表的自然地理环境与特征深刻影响着早期的中缅通道建设;现实域层面的关键影响因素多为“人类主观能动性的发挥程度和科技进步是否促生通道建设“时空压缩”,即主观能动性和科技进步等能否缩短通道的建设里程和关键路段建设工期、是否能提升与城市群关联度和完善运输网络体系等;未来域的关键影响因素则是关注通道的“成长”、国家话语支持和战略定位以及服务国家的长效机制等方面,最直接的便是国家对通道的定位、赋能及话语政策支持等。2)瑞丽与孟定清水河作为中缅印度洋通道的中方出境口岸,其选址在不同时期侧重不同地理考量,受到各自S、W、O、T主导要素的裹挟影响与约束。瑞丽(“人字形”走廊)为抗争战略调整型,孟定清水河(新通道)为抗争战略进取型。3)总体上孟定清水河至腊戌一线(新通道)相较瑞丽至腊戌一线(“人字形”走廊)的优势和潜力较为明显,阻碍和困难相对较小,佐证了“优势在孟”的新通道方案。“人字形”走廊与新通道具有明显的互补性特征,传递出双“Y”轴通道设想的科学性与可行性。

中巴经济走廊安全风险外溢路径及耦合效应研究

地缘政治博弈加剧、武装冲突延宕起伏、极端天气事件频发等因素的交织叠加给“一带一路”沿线重大基础设施项目安全风险预警带来严峻挑战。研究以中巴经济走廊沿线传统安全风险与非传统安全风险之间的复杂传导机制为研究对象,通过数据挖掘和扎根理论构建关键安全风险因子集合,从单一路径传导和扩散式传导两个维度建构海外重大项目安全风险演化的动力学模型。根据改进后的节点重要度计算方法L-onion,以风险因子耦合强度和抱团趋势量化关键风险因子在风险演化过程中的驱动作用。研究结论可为新形势下我国海外重大项目安全风险的动态监测和预警提供实践指导。