China’s Potential Economic Growths during 2015-2025 under Different Scenarios~

China has entered a crucial period of further growth and restructuring that will last until 2025. Based on a review of the major factors affecting China＇s potential economic growth, this paper has created an integrated economic system model consisting of system dynamics, econometrics, and input-output for the forecast of China＇s economic size and structure by 2025. Analysis shows that prior to 2025, China will be able to maintain a potential annual economic growth rate of 5.7%-7.2%. Faced with an international environment of a possible slowdown of advanced economies and diminishing demographic dividends, China needs to further expedite its urbanization process, enhance R＆D and education spending, increase total factor productivity （TFP）, vigorously develop the tertiary sector, and expand consumption in order to achieve the optimistically estimated growth of 6.6%-7.4% during the period of 2015-2025. Economic growth should be accompanied by the upgrade of industry structure and improvement of investment and consumption structures.

职业院校劳动教育体系建构探赜——基于“中国制造2025”背景

“中国制造2025”战略的实施对职业岗位技能、人才培养质量等提出了更高的要求,职业教育以及职业院校学生面临着新的机遇与挑战。因此,职业院校应明确“中国制造2025”背景下劳动教育的意蕴,探究职业院校劳动教育体系建构路径,将人才培养与生产劳动相结合,培养学生树立正确的劳动意识,不断提升劳动素养和能力,以适应当今高端装备制造业转型升级及制造强国建设发展对人才的新需求。

中国制造2025背景下电器可靠性技术教学案例设计

“中国制造2025”为中国制造业未来10年设计顶层规划和路线图,其基本方针:质量为先、人才为本。低压电器是电力系统的核心基础零部件,低压电器产品的质量对电力系统的发展、安全运行起到至关重要的作用。培养低压电器可靠性方面的人才迫在眉睫。电器可靠性技术是电机与电器学科大三的核心专业课程,其作用和意义凸显。以可靠性抽样检查模块为例,介绍在“中国制造2025”背景下的案例设计内容及实施过程。引导学生体会、理解“中国制造2025”的基本方针——质量为先、人才为本。旨在培养学生的家国情怀、工匠精神和责任担当。

中国戏曲对外传播中的媒介形象建构——基于China Daily相关英文报道的分析

本研究收集China Daily2019至2022年有关中国戏曲的英文报道,自建英文语料库,从语篇层面进行分析发现,China Daily建构的中国戏曲形象主要表现为历史悠久、种类丰富、底蕴深厚、认可广泛、官方重视、传播主体多元化、受众年轻化、传播形式创新化、“戏曲+旅游”融合发展、戏曲助力乡村振兴等特征,为对外展示真实、立体、全面的中国发挥了积极作用。

主流媒体短视频传播中的国家形象建构研究——以中国网短视频节目《中国三分钟(China Mosaic)》为例

以中国网账号发布在境外社交媒体平台Facebook上的节目《中国三分钟(China Mosaic)》为例,使用Python工具软件抓取得到评论数据样本,能很好地分析海外受众对主题类型的关注偏向和态度取向。从整体上看,海外受众对我国国家形象呈现出积极认可的态度,主要表现为:高度肯定我国的经济实力和科教发展成果,赞许我大国外交所起到的作用和经济建设成就,向往中华优秀传统文化等。但由于意识形态、东西方认知的差异,在海外受众的评论中也存在一些杂音,需要我们理性对待、主动消弭。在对外传播中,要用海外受众乐于接受的话语表达方式、共通的符号,从大处着眼、小处入手讲述中国故事,掌握议题设置的主动权,传播好中国声音。

Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality patterns in 2006-2015 and prediction of the epidemiological trend to 2025 in China

BACKGROUND Due to dietary patterns,the aging population,and other high-risk factors,the occurrence of pancreatic cancer(PC)has been rapidly increasing in China.AIM To present the epidemiological trends of PC in China over the past decade and the estimated trend in 2025 and to compare the international differences in PC morbidity and mortality.METHODS This study used a series of nationally representative data from the National Central Cancer Registry of China(NCCR),the International Agency for Research on Cancer and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation databases.Agestandardized data of the PC incidence and mortality from 2006 to 2015 in China were extracted from the NCCR database.Linear regression models were used to estimate the incidence and mortality rates of PC in 2025.RESULTS The age-standardized rates of PC in China increased from 3.65 per 100000 in 2006 to 4.31 per 100000 in 2015 and were estimated to reach up to 5.52 per 100000 in 2025.The mortality went from 3.35 per 100000 in 2006 to 3.78 per 100000 in 2015,estimated to reach up to 4.6 per 100000 in 2025.The number of new cases and deaths was low before 45 years and the peak age of onset was 85-89 years.The incidence and mortality rates in men were higher than those in women regardless of the region in China.In addition,the incidence and mortality rates in China were higher than the average level around the world.Likewise,disabilityadjusted life years attributed to PC in China were 197.22 years per 100000,above the average level around the world.CONCLUSION This study presented an increasing trend of PC in China and differences in morbidity,mortality and disability-adjusted life years between Chinese and global populations.Efforts need to be made to decrease the PC incidence and improve patient outcomes.

功能性产业政策能否促进企业生产率增长——基于《中国制造2025》的准自然实验

本文在政府与市场关系分析框架下,理论分析制造强国战略这一功能性产业政策对企业全要素生产率的影响机制,并以《中国制造2025》为准自然实验,结合2010—2019年沪深A股上市公司数据,运用双重差分法对理论预期进行验证。研究发现,制造强国战略这一功能性产业政策显著地促进了制造业企业全要素生产率增长,这一结论在安慰剂检验、PSM-DID、工具变量法等一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立。制造强国战略的这种影响是通过协同创新、关键核心技术突破等技术创新机制,以及专业技术人才、经营管理人才等人才支撑机制实现的。政府治理效能提升显著增强了制造强国战略的实施效果,而且这种影响对于政府效率和营商环境排名前50的城市更显著。政府治理效能提升强化了制造强国战略的协同创新、关键核心技术突破、专业技术人才支撑和经营管理人才支撑等机制,但未明显改善创新溢出机制和技能人才支撑机制。此外,异质性分析表明,制造强国战略对试点地区、配套政策完善地区、融资约束程度较低、智能化水平较高、技术差距较大行业的企业生产率提升效果更为显著。本文的研究验证了制造强国战略在制造业生产率增长方面的重要作用,为功能性产业政策实施与制造业高质量发展提供了有益的参考依据。

PISA 2025框架下美国教材中“生物体及其相互关系”部分的启示

在PISA 2025科学素养视域下,从科学情境、知识、能力和身份等维度,对美国高中生物学教材《生物:生命的动力(第2版)》中“生物体及其相互关系”部分进行了研究。分析科学素养在美国教材中的渗透,以期为我国教材的编写及生物学教学提供参考。

文旅产业国际传播策略优化研究——基于YouTube#China travel视频用户评论语料分析

目的:了解外国游客对现有中国旅游业的评价与态度,是优化“媒体+文旅”形势下国际传播效果及文旅产业建设的重要佐证。方法:通过使用Gooseeker工具对YouTube #China travel和#144-hour标签下热门视频用户评价进行爬取和分析。结果:从受众视角揭示了我国现有文旅产业国际传播的现状及效果,为优化中国文旅产业国际传播策略提供数据支持。结论:面对外国社交媒体平台上“China travel”的爆火,我国的文旅产业建设及国际传播推广应从情感角度入手,把握受众的评价与态度,借助媒体融合的发展趋势建立细分化的国际传播矩阵。

2025年亚冬会背景下中、日、韩三国冬季运动竞争格局及趋势分析

以2025年第9届亚洲冬季运动会在我国哈尔滨举办为背景,以近五届冬奥会、近三届亚冬会中、日、韩三国参赛成绩和获奖项目分布为研究对象,通过文献资料、数理统计、逻辑分析等科研方法,分析主要竞争对手,有针对性地制定备战策略。研究发现:①在亚洲冬季运动主要开展国中,中国、日本和韩国是竞技实力相对最强的国家,长期占据冬奥会、亚冬会前三名;②在近五届冬奥会参赛历程上,中国竞技实力最强,韩国其次,日本排名第三;③在近三年亚冬会参赛历程上,日本队竞技实力最强,中国其次,韩国排名第三。中、日、韩三国在冬季项目优势项目和潜优势项目分布上既有重叠又有区别,巩固优势项目、扩大潜优势项目是取得优异成绩的关键。据此建议:中国队备战亚冬会管理部门要强化顶层设计,明确整体备战思路;吃透冰雪项目竞赛规则,把握项目制胜规律;进一步夯实群众发展基础,探索多种途径培养人才;坚持“走出去、请进来”,把训练参赛有机结合起来,开展以赛促练。

Research and Practice on Curriculum Reform of the Packaging Design Based on the Development Strategy of"Made in China 2025"

In 2015,the Chinese government has put forward the development strategy of"made in China 2025"with Chinese characteristics,adhering to the basic policy of"innovation driven,quality first,green development,structural optimization and talent oriented",and the basic principle of"guided by the market and the government,based on the current and long-term,overall promotion and key breakthrough,independent development and open cooperation".Under the background,for the curriculum characteristics of the Packing Design,the"packaging task-based"teaching model is introduced,and the research and practice of curriculum reform are carried out from three aspects:curriculum content arrangement,curriculum design training and graduation design training,thereby cultivating students'practical ability and innovative spirit,letting students learn to study independently and practice actively,enhancing students'packaging practice ability and employment competitiveness,and training more and more excellent product packaging design talents for"made in China 2025".

How do the landslide and non-landslide sampling strategies impact landslide susceptibility assessment? d A catchment-scale case study from China

The aim of this study is to investigate the impacts of the sampling strategy of landslide and non-landslide on the performance of landslide susceptibility assessment(LSA).The study area is the Feiyun catchment in Wenzhou City,Southeast China.Two types of landslides samples,combined with seven non-landslide sampling strategies,resulted in a total of 14 scenarios.The corresponding landslide susceptibility map(LSM)for each scenario was generated using the random forest model.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and statistical indicators were calculated and used to assess the impact of the dataset sampling strategy.The results showed that higher accuracies were achieved when using the landslide core as positive samples,combined with non-landslide sampling from the very low zone or buffer zone.The results reveal the influence of landslide and non-landslide sampling strategies on the accuracy of LSA,which provides a reference for subsequent researchers aiming to obtain a more reasonable LSM.

China stroke surveillance report 2021

Since 2015,stroke has become the leading cause of death and disability in China,posing a significant threat to the health of its citizens as a major chronic non-communicable disease.According to the China Stroke High-risk Population Screening and Intervention Program,an estimated 17.8 million[95%confidence interval(CI)17.6–18.0million]adults in China had experienced a stroke in 2020,with 3.4 million(95%CI 3.3–3.5 million)experiencing their first-ever stroke and another 2.3 million(95%CI 2.2–2.4 million)dying as a result.Additionally,approximately 12.5%(95%CI 12.4%–12.5%)of stroke survivors were left disabled,as defined by a modified Rankin Scale score greater than 1,equating to 2.2 million(95%CI 2.1–2.2 million)stroke-related disabilities in 2020.As the population ages and the prevalence of risk factors like diabetes,hypertension,and hyperlipidemia continues to rise and remains poorly controlled,the burden of stroke in China is also increasing.A large national epidemiological survey initiated by the China Hypertension League in 2017 showed that the prevalence of hypertension was 24.7%;the awareness,treatment,and control rates in hypertensive patients were:60.1%,42.5%,and 25.4%,respectively.A nationally representative sample of the Chinese mainland population showed that the weighted prevalence of total diabetes diagnosed by the American Diabetes Association criteria was 12.8%,suggesting there are 120 million adults with diabetes in China,and the awareness,treatment,and control rates in diabetic patients were:43.3%,49.0%,and 49.4%,respectively.The“Sixth National Health Service Statistical Survey Report in 2018”showed that the proportion of the obese population in China was 37.4%,an increase of 7.2 points from 2013.Data from 1599 hospitals in the Hospital Quality Monitoring System and Bigdata Observatory Platform for Stroke of China(BOSC)showed that a total of 3,418,432 stroke cases[mean age±standard error(SE)was(65.700±0.006)years,and 59.1%were male]were admitted during 2020.Of those,over 80.0%(81.9%)were ischemic stroke(IS),14.9%were intracerebral hemorrhage(ICH)strokes,and 3.1%were subarachnoid hemorrhage(SAH)strokes.The mean±SE of hospitalization expenditures was Chinese Yuan(CNY)(16,975.6±16.3),ranging from(13,310.1±12.8)in IS to(81,369.8±260.7)in SAH,and out-of-pocket expenses were(5788.9±8.6),ranging from(4449.0±6.6)in IS to(30,778.2±156.8)in SAH.It was estimated that the medical cost of hospitalization for stroke in 2020 was CNY 58.0 billion,of which the patient pays approximately CNY 19.8 billion.In-hospital death/discharge against medical advice rate was 9.2%(95%CI 9.2%–9.2%),ranging from 6.4%(95%CI 6.4%–6.5%)for IS to 21.8%(95%CI 21.8%–21.9%)for ICH.From 2019 to 2020,the information about 188,648 patients with acute IS receiving intravenous thrombolytic therapy(IVT),49,845 patients receiving mechanical thrombectomy(MT),and 14,087 patients receiving bridging(IVT+MT)were collected through BOSC.The incidence of intracranial hemorrhage during treatment was 3.2%(95%CI 3.2%–3.3%),7.7%(95%CI 7.5%–8.0%),and 12.9%(95%CI 12.3%–13.4%),respectively.And in-hospital death/discharge against medical advice rate was 8.9%(95%CI 8.8%–9.0%),16.5%(95%CI 16.2%–16.9%),and 16.8%(95%CI 16.2%–17.4%),respectively.A prospective nationwide hospital-based study was conducted at 231 stroke base hospitals(Level III)from 31 provinces in China through BOSC from January 2019to December 2020 and 136,282 stroke patients were included and finished 12-month follow-up.Of those,over 86.9%were IS,10.8%were ICH strokes,and 2.3%were SAH strokes.The disability rate[%(95%CI)]in survivors of stroke at 3-month and 12-month was 14.8%(95%CI 14.6%–15.0%)and 14.0%(95%CI 13.8%–14.2%),respectively.The mortality rate[%(95%CI)]of stroke at 3-month and 12-month was 4.2%(95%CI 4.1%–4.3%)and 8.5%(95%CI 8.4%–8.6%),respectively.The recurrence rate[%(95%CI)]of stroke at 3-month and 12-month was 3.6%(95%CI 3.5%–3.7%)and 5.6%(95%CI 5.4%–5.7%),respectively.The Healthy China 2030 Stroke Action Plan was launched as part of this review,and the above data provide valuable guidelines for future stroke prevention and treatment efforts in China.

The Strategic Choice of Talent Training Mode With The Direction of Made in China 2025

With the integration of depth technology Made in China 2025 has established an production pattern of information and personalization,it needs complex and innovative workers,which has brought severe challenges to talent training mode.Changing the thought of talent cultivation,improving the professional setting and construction,optimizing course offered mode,innovating teaching organization form,speeding up the cooperative education mode,reconstructing teachers team,accelerating the establishment of personnel training laws and regulations,these are the positive strategic choices for China to face challenges.

Cancer incidence and mortality in China,2022

Background:The National Cancer Center(NCC)of China regularly reports the nationwide statistics on cancer incidence and mortality in China.The International Agency for Research on Cancer(IARC)calculates and publishes the cancer burden of countries around the world every two years.To ensure consistency between the actual surveillance data in China and the data published by IARC,NCC has received approval from the National Health Commission and IARC to simultaneously release the cancer burden data for China in GLOBOCAN 2022.Methods:There were a total of 700 registries reporting high-quality data on cancer incidence and mortality across China in 2018,of which 106 registries with continuous monitoring from 2010 to 2018 were used to establish an age-period-cohort model to simulate the trend of cancer incidence and mortality and to estimate the incidence and mortality in China in 2022.In addition,we analyzed the temporal trends of age-standardized cancer incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018 using data from 22 continuous cancer registries.Results:It was estimated about 4,824,700 new cancer cases and 2,574,200 new cancer deaths occurred in China in 2022.Cancers of the lung,colon-rectum,thyroid,liver and stomach were the top five cancer types,accounting for 57.42%of new cancer cases.Cancers of the lung,liver,stomach,colon-rectum and esophagus were the five leading causes of cancer deaths,accounting for 67.50%of total cancer deaths.The crude rate and age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)were 341.75 per 100,000 and 201.61 per 100,000,respectively.The crude mortality rate was 182.34 per 100,000 and the age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)was 96.47 per 100,000.The ASIR of all cancers combined increased by approximately 1.4%per year during 2000–2018,while the ASMR decreased by approximately 1.3%per year.We observed decreasing trends in ASIR and ASMR for cancers of the esophagus,stomach,and liver,whereas the ASIR increased significantly for cancers of the thyroid,prostate,and cervix.Conclusions:Cancer remains a major public health concern in China,with a cancer profile that reflects the coexistence of developed and developing regions.Sustained implementation of prevention and control measures has resulted in significant reductions in the incidence and mortality rates of certain historically high incidence cancers,such as esophageal,stomach and liver cancers.Adherence to the guidelines of the Healthy China Action Plan and the Cancer Prevention and Control Action Plan,along with continued efforts in comprehensive risk factor control,cancer screening,early diagnosis and treatment,and standardization of diagnostic and therapeutic protocols,are key strategies to effectively mitigate the increasing cancer burden by 2030.

Epidemiological and clinical features,treatment status,and economic burden of traumatic spinal cord injury in China:a hospital-based retrospective study

Traumatic spinal cord injury is potentially catastrophic and can lead to permanent disability or even death.China has the largest population of patients with traumatic spinal cord injury.Previous studies of traumatic spinal cord injury in China have mostly been regional in scope;national-level studies have been rare.To the best of our knowledge,no national-level study of treatment status and economic burden has been performed.This retrospective study aimed to examine the epidemiological and clinical features,treatment status,and economic burden of traumatic spinal cord injury in China at the national level.We included 13,465 traumatic spinal cord injury patients who were injured between January 2013 and December 2018 and treated in 30 hospitals in 11 provinces/municipalities representing all geographical divisions of China.Patient epidemiological and clinical features,treatment status,and total and daily costs were recorded.Trends in the percentage of traumatic spinal cord injuries among all hospitalized patients and among patients hospitalized in the orthopedic department and cost of care were assessed by annual percentage change using the Joinpoint Regression Program.The percentage of traumatic spinal cord injuries among all hospitalized patients and among patients hospitalized in the orthopedic department did not significantly change overall(annual percentage change,-0.5%and 2.1%,respectively).A total of 10,053(74.7%)patients underwent surgery.Only 2.8%of patients who underwent surgery did so within 24 hours of injury.A total of 2005(14.9%)patients were treated with high-dose(≥500 mg)methylprednisolone sodium succinate/methylprednisolone(MPSS/MP);615(4.6%)received it within 8 hours.The total cost for acute traumatic spinal cord injury decreased over the study period(-4.7%),while daily cost did not significantly change(1.0%increase).Our findings indicate that public health initiatives should aim at improving hospitals’ability to complete early surgery within 24 hours,which is associated with improved sensorimotor recovery,increasing the awareness rate of clinical guidelines related to high-dose MPSS/MP to reduce the use of the treatment with insufficient evidence.

Study on the Training Strategy of High Skilled Talents of Spray Coatings for Automobile in Secondary Vocational School——from the Perspective of Made in China 2025 Strategy

Made in China 2025 Strategy requires a large number of high skilled talents,which the high-skilled talents are the core backbone of skilled workers and a significant force to promote technological innovation and realize the transformation of scientific and technological achievements.In this study,combined with automotive spraying industry characteristics,four cultivation strategies are established by the construction of the system of high-skilled talent formation,training mode of on-campus+on-job highskilled talents,the common trail of national certification and enterprise certification and the star system spiraling excitation in order to create a new growth path for the cultivation of high-skilled talents in automobile spraying.

Resilience effects for household food expenditure and dietary diversity in rural western China

A more resilient livelihood is increasingly recognized as an efficient way to improve vulnerable households’food security and optimize their dietary decisions.This study quantifies rural household resilience in western China,identifies the three pillars(absorptive capacity,adaptive capacity,and transformative capacity)contribution to resilience,and then establishes the estimated Resilience Capacity Index(RCI)linked with food security and dietary diversity supported by the multiple indicator multiple cause(MIMIC)model.Results show that,despite geographical heterogeneity,the RCI consistently increased from 2015 to 2021.Households with a higher RCI inheriting better capacity to deal with risk and shocks are significantly and positively correlated with increasing food expenditure and diversifying food choices.It can be because resilient households will allocate more money to food expenditure instead of saving for livelihood uncertainty.Thus,policymakers can provide more incentives for rural households to adopt more dynamic and effective risk management strategies.This,in turn,could yield positive spillover effects by preventing human capital loss associated with dietary-related chronic diseases and mortality.

China Will Increase Ethylene Production Capacity Totaling Around 15 Mt/a by 2025

It is expected that by 2025 China will add a total ethylene production capacity of 12 Mt/a,and in the next decade the total ethylene capacity will reach 35―40 Mt/a.The grassroots 11 new steam cracking units slated for production by the end of 2022 are listed in the following Table.

Implications of the extremely hot summer of 2022 on urban ozone control in China

Frequent occurrences of extreme heat are causing severe ozone pollution over China.This study examined the driving factors of urban ozone pollution in China during the extremely hot summer of 2022 and the impact of emission control strategies using surface measurements and the GEOS-Chem model.The results show that ozone pollution was extremely severe in summer 2022,with a significant rebound by 12-15 ppbv in the North China Plain(NCP),Yangtze River Delta(YRD),and Sichuan basin(SCB),compared to 2021.Especially over the NCP,the MDA8(maximum daily 8-hourly average)ozone exceeded 160 ppbv,and the number of ozone exceedances was over 42 days.Based on an IPR(integrated process rate)analysis,the authors found that the net chemical production was the dominant factor contributing to the strong ozone increase in summer 2022.For example,in June over the NCP,the net chemical production resulted in an increase by 3.08 Gg d^(−1)(∼270%)in ozone mass change.Sensitivity simulations showed that both NO_(x)(nitrogen oxides)and VOC(volatile organic compound)reductions were important over the NCP,and NO_(x)reductions were more important than VOCs over southern China.To keep the ozone of 2022 at the same level as 2021,a joint reduction of NO_(x)and VOCs by at least 50%-60%would have been required.This study highlights the urgency to develop effective ozone management since extreme heat will become more frequent.