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中国区域经济差异下寿险需求的评价和预测——Kuznets曲线和聚类分析法的运用 被引量:3
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作者 赵越 傅亚平 《科学技术与工程》 2009年第3期800-805,共6页
为了尽可能准确地评价及预测我国寿险业的发展,尝试从两个崭新的角度对中国寿险市场需求和经济水平之间关系进行分析。首先以寿险收入弹性为切入点,以经济水平和寿险收入弹性之间关系呈Kuznets曲线特征为理论假设前提,建立寿险需求&quo... 为了尽可能准确地评价及预测我国寿险业的发展,尝试从两个崭新的角度对中国寿险市场需求和经济水平之间关系进行分析。首先以寿险收入弹性为切入点,以经济水平和寿险收入弹性之间关系呈Kuznets曲线特征为理论假设前提,建立寿险需求"S曲线"模型;其次将全国按经济发展特征分为三大区域,将它们近5年内的短期和长期收入弹性为检验样本评价模型的预测准确度,最后分别预测各经济区域未来的寿险需求,进而得到全国的总需求量预测。 展开更多
关键词 区域经济差异 寿险需求收入弹性 主成分分析 聚类分析 KUZNETs曲线 “s曲线”模型
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Investigation of the unstable flow phenomenon in a pump turbine 被引量:8
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作者 YIN JunLian WANG DeZhong +1 位作者 WALTERS D.Keith WEI XianZhu 《Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy)》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第6期1119-1127,共9页
Instability of pump turbine with S-shaped curve is characterized by large fluctuations of rotational speed during the transient processes.For investigating this phenomenon,a numerical model based on the dynamic slidin... Instability of pump turbine with S-shaped curve is characterized by large fluctuations of rotational speed during the transient processes.For investigating this phenomenon,a numerical model based on the dynamic sliding mesh method(DSSM)is presented and used to numerically solve the 3D transient flow which is characterized by the variable rotation speed of runner.The method is validated by comparison with measured data for a load rejection process in a prototype pump turbine.The results show that the calculated rotation speed agrees well with the experimental data.Based on the validated model,simulations were performed for the runaway process using an artificially assumed operating condition under which the unstable rotation speed is expected to appear.The results confirm that the instability of runner rotational speed can be effectively captured with the proposed method.Presented results include the time history profiles of unit flow rate and unit rotating speed.The internal flow characteristics in a typical unstable period are discussed in detail and the mechanism of the unstable hydraulic phenomenon is explained.Overall,the results suggest that the method presented here can be a viable alternative to predict the dynamic characteristics of pump turbines during transient processes. 展开更多
关键词 pump turbine transient process dynamic sliding mesh flow stability
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Numerical investigation on the “S” characteristics of a reduced pump turbine model 被引量:20
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作者 WANG LeQin YIN JunLian +2 位作者 JIAO Lei WU DaZhuan QIN DaQing 《Science China(Technological Sciences)》 SCIE EI CAS 2011年第5期1259-1266,共8页
The performance of a reversible pump turbine with S-shaped characteristics is of great importance to the transition processes such as start-up and load rejection. In order to predict the S-shaped curve accurately and ... The performance of a reversible pump turbine with S-shaped characteristics is of great importance to the transition processes such as start-up and load rejection. In order to predict the S-shaped curve accurately and develop a reliable tool for design improvement, a shear stress transport model (SST) with various numerical schemes for pressure term in the governing equation was investigated in a whole pump turbine including spiral casing, stay vanes, guide vanes, runner and draft tube. Through the computation, it was shown that different zones in the curve should employ different schemes to get the solution converged. Comparison of discharge-speed performance showed that good correspondence is got between experimental data and CFD results. Based on this, internal flow analysis was carried out at three typical operating points representing turbine mode, shut-off mode and reversible pump mode, respectively. According to the flow field concerned, the mechanism for the speed-no-load instability was explained, which provides good guidelines to take countermeasures in future design. 展开更多
关键词 pump turbine flow simulation ssT k-co turbulence mode s-shaped curve
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