Characteristics of Temperature Change in China over the Last 2000 years and Spatial Patterns of Dryness/Wetness during Cold and Warm Periods

This paper presents new high-resolution proxies and paleoclimatic reconstructions for studying climate changes in China for the past 2000 years. Multi-proxy synthesized reconstructions show that temperature variation in China has exhibited significant 50–70-yr, 100–120-yr, and 200–250-yr cycles. Results also show that the amplitudes of decadal and centennial temperature variation were 1.3℃ and 0.7℃, respectively, with the latter significantly correlated with long-term changes in solar radiation, especially cold periods, which correspond approximately to sunspot minima. The most rapid warming in China occurred over AD 1870–2000, at a rate of 0.56°± 0.42℃（100 yr）^（-1）; however, temperatures recorded in the 20 th century may not be unprecedented for the last 2000 years, as data show records for the periods AD 981–1100 and AD1201–70 are comparable to the present. The ensemble means of dryness/wetness spatial patterns in eastern China across all centennial warm periods illustrate a tripole pattern： dry south of 25°N, wet from 25°–30°N, and dry to the north of 30°N. However, for all centennial cold periods, this spatial pattern also exhibits a meridional distribution. The increase in precipitation over the monsoonal regions of China associated with the 20 th century warming can primarily be attributed to a mega El Nino–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In addition, a significant association between increasing numbers of locusts and dry/cold conditions is found in eastern China. Plague intensity also generally increases in concert with wetness in northern China, while more precipitation is likely to have a negative effect in southern China.

Monitoring and Assessment of Water Quality of Centralized Drinking Water Sources in Kaixian County during the " Twelfth Five-year Plan " Period

Based on the monitoring data of water quality of more than 40 centralized drinking water sources in 40 towns （townships or streets） of Kaixian County in the first and second half of each year during the ＂Twelfth Five-year Plan＂ period, the changing rules of the water quality were studied to provide scientific references for the improvement of drinking water safety of urban and rural residents and drinking water quality. The re- sults show that the water quality of centralized drinking water sources in Kaixian County improved year by year during the ＂Twelfth Five-year Plan＂ period, and most monitoring sites with water quality exceeding the standard are distributed in reservoirs. Total phosphorus, total nitrogen, chemical oxygen demand, and permanganate index exceeded the standard obviously. Main pollution sources are domestic pollution and non-point source pol- lution caused by excessive discharge of nitrogen, phosphorus and organic pollutants. To improve drinking water quality, it is suggested that some towns can get drinking water from other reservoirs, surface water or underground water with better quality instead of previous reservoirs with water quality exceeding the standard, and the control of non-point source pollution should be enhanced.

A Review of Development of Environmental Protection Information during the 12^(th) Five-Year Plan Period and Its Outlook

During the 12^(th)Five-Year Plan period,the environmental protection information work made remarkable achievements,and the construction of nationwide air quality monitoring network was completed; the trinitarian monitoring system was established,and environmental emergency command ability enhanced significantly. However,the issues of " information island" and " application silo" are still outstanding,and the application and promotion of new technologies make slow progress; the capacity of information system to support environmental protection business is insufficient,and there is no capacity for decision analysis. In the 13^(th)Five-Year Plan period,it is needed to strengthen the application and promotion of new technologies such as cloud computing,big data,Internet of Things,and spatial information,mainly construct and improve " Cloud Computing Based Environmental Protection( CCBEP) ", " big data platform of ecological environment",and then realize the core objective of improving environmental quality.

A New Approach to Estimating the T-Year Return-Period Wave Height

The paper introduces a new approach to estimating the T-year return-period wave height (TRPW), i.e. the wave height expected to occur in T-year, from two sets of observed extreme data and on the basis of the maximum entropy principle. The main points of the approach are as follows. 1) A maximum entropy probability density function (PDF) for the extreme wave height H is derived from a Euler equation subject to some necessary and rational constraints. 2) The parameters in the function are expressed in terms of the mth moment of H. 3) This PDF is convenient to theoretical and practical applications as it is simple and its four parameters are easy to be determined from observed extreme data. An example is given for estimating the TRPW in 50 and 100 years by the present approach and by some currently used methods using observed data at two hydrographic stations.The comparison of the estimated results shows that the present approach is quite similar to the Pearson-Ⅲ and Gumbel methods.

Small Town Construction in the 13th Five-Year Plan Period: A Case Study of Shangrao City

The 12 th Five-Year Plan period was unusual five years in the development of China. Under the dual pressure of complex international environment and arduous domestic reform task,China made outstanding achievements in economic development,which lays a solid foundation for building a moderately prosperous society in all respects in the 13 th Five-Year Plan period. The key and difficult points of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects lie in solving issues concerning agriculture,farmers,and rural areas. The 18 th National Congress of the CPC stated that integrated urban and rural development is the fundamental approach for solving issues concerning agriculture,farmers,and rural areas. As a transitional form from rural areas to urban areas,small town play an important role in integrated urban and rural development. In the 13 th Five-Year Plan period,China should take a new road of characteristic urbanization,energetically develop key towns,central towns,and characteristic towns,use points to drive areas,and promote coordinated progress of urbanization construction and new countryside construction. Focusing on the objective of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and taking Shangrao City as an example,we analyzed construction of small town,in order to provide scientific theoretical reference for urbanization development,plan preparation,and policy formulation of Shangrao City.

1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病的疾病负担分析及未来10年发病预测

目的了解1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病、患病、死亡情况及疾病负担情况,预测2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病情况,为评估和制定慢性阻塞性肺疾病相关预防治疗政策和措施提供数据支持。方法利用2019年全球疾病负担研究数据库(Global burden of disease study,GBD),研究分析1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病的发病、患病、死亡、伤残调整寿命年(DALY)、早死寿命损失年(YLL)、伤残寿命损失年(YLD)等情况。采用贝叶斯-时期-队列分析(BAPC)方法,预测2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病率。结果相对于1990年,2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病粗患病率增长35.44%,标化患病率减少27.16%,粗发病率增长38.31%,标化发病率减少28.52%,粗死亡率减少30.59%,标化死亡率减少70.08%。1990-2019年中国人群因慢性阻塞性肺疾病导致的YLL率由3281.48/10万降至862.37/10万,YLD率由330.33/10万降至240.40/10万,DALY率由3611.81/10万降至1102.77/10万。2019年男性慢性阻塞性肺疾病DALY率相比于1990年降低66.56%,女性DALY率相比于1990年降低71.87%。2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病标化发病率预计呈下降趋势,2030年男性标化发病率预计比2020年降低31.97%,女性标化发病率预计比2020年降低27.69%。结论1990-2019年,慢性阻塞性肺疾病对中国人口造成的疾病负担总体呈下降趋势。但从患病情况和死亡情况来看,发病及死亡人数较多,中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病的疾病负担仍处于较高水平。同时预测结果显示,未来10年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病标化发病率在下降,但是仍处于较高水平,因此进行早筛查、早预防和早治疗,及广泛开展慢阻肺相关知识普及,对于做好COPD疾病管理具有重要意义。

“十七年”时期中央文学研究所对文学新人的培养

“十七年”时期,中央文学研究所开启社会主义文学新人培养工程,培养新中国文学的新生力量。办学模式方面,侧重“小而精”的培训,招生计划、教学安排、师资队伍配备等体现了培养工农文学新人的诸多努力与创新。办学理念方面,既自由活泼,鼓励讨论争鸣;又严肃紧张,突出政治规训。办学质量评价方面,尽管人们常常诟病中央文学研究所培养的大作家和创作的名作品少,但综合考量其办学目标定位、生源质量与培养成效,大体实现了办学初衷,且对20世纪50—70年代乃至新时期初始作家队伍建设和文学生态建构都发挥了重要作用。

An Analysis of China's Overall Price Trend During the 12th Five-year Plan Period and Suggestions

In this paper,the author first summarizes China’s price operation situation and characteristics since the 1990s,and thenanalyzes inflation shaping factors and types.Based on that,the author raises six inflation early-warning indexes andfully dissects influencing factors of the overall price trend and inflation risks during the 12th Five-year Plan period.Afterthat,the author explains some aspects of price fluctuation that warrants attention during the 12th Five-year Plan period.Finally,the author puts forward policies and suggestions for stabilizing the overall price during the transformation of theeconomic development mode based on our actual situation.

“十四五”时期义乌市跨境电商发展的驱动机制研究

义乌是中国小商品进入全球商贸流通体系的第一枢纽,也是引领全国跨境电商新模式、新业态发展的前沿阵地。加快发展跨境电商是新时期义乌打造全球大众贸易双循环中心,高质量、高水平建成世界小商品之都,实现经济社会数字化转型的关键路径。本文通过回顾“十三五”时期义乌市跨境电商的发展历程,分析“十四五”时期义乌市跨境电商的发展趋势,评估当前义乌市跨境电商面临的问题和挑战,从而明确“十四五”时期义乌市跨境电商的总体要求和发展目标,制定“十四五”时期义乌市跨境电商的发展策略,以期为政府部门制定相关政策提供理论支撑与对策参考。

课程思政视域下的中国当代文学教学思考——以“十七年”时期革命战争题材小说为例

在课程思政视域下,中国当代文学的课堂教学改革具有重要意义。该课程具有鲜活的时代性,教学内容具有迷人的魅力,其中蕴含的思政元素与“中国故事”高度契合,在课程思政方面颇具优势,但同时也面临着某些教学改革的困惑。本文从中国当代文学课程特点出发,结合“十七年”时期的战争题材小说,分别从修订教学目标,优化教学内容,完善考核方式,创新教学手段等方面具体探究中国现当代文学课程思政教学改革的实践路径,以期切实提高中国当代文学课程思政教学的实效。

大沽河极端气候指数特征及其对地下水的影响

掌握极端气候变化特征是地下水资源管理的重要环节。为了探究极端气候对地下水资源的影响,以大沽河水源地为例,基于40余年的气象数据,选取14个代表性的极端气候指标,并采用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变检验、小波分析等方法分析了研究区气候变化的趋势性、突变性和周期性;基于极端气候指数和水文频率分析筛选了研究区代表性的极端气候年份,运用水均衡分析方法估算了极端气候年份条件下地下水平衡;并通过相关性和周期性分析评估了极端气候指数对地下水水位埋深的影响。结果表明:(1)1979-2021年,研究区内表征高温与降水的极端气候指数呈上升趋势,表征低温的极端气候指数总体呈下降趋势;极端丰水年代表性年份为2007年和2020年,极端枯水年代表性年份为1981年和1986年。(2)极端气候指数在20世纪90年代与21世纪初期发生突变,之后高温趋势更加显著。(3)极端降水指数第一周期对应的平均周期为11~16 a,极端气温指数第一主周期对应的平均周期主要有3个变化范围分别为20~24 a、12~14 a、5~6 a。(4)极端降水指数抑制地下水水位埋深的增加,极端降水量(R95p)和普通日降水强度(SDII)是影响大沽河水源地地下水水位埋深的主要降水指数;水位埋深的第一主周期对应的周期分别为13~15 a,与极端降水指数周期特征基本一致,意味着水位埋深受极端降水指数的影响较显著。(5)在极端丰水年(2007年),地下水总补给量约为319.4mm,总排泄量约为204.8 mm,均衡差约为114.6 mm;在极端枯水年(1981年),地下水总补给量约为104.2 mm,总排泄量约为141.1 mm,均衡差约为-36.9 mm。

“十七年”时期河南电影放映员的职业困境与身份认同

新中国“十七年”时期是河南电影放映员队伍建立和成熟的时期,其发展并不是一蹴而就,而是随着种种问题的出现和解决一步步完善起来的。放映员在工作中既面临上级规定的任务,又面对地方实践的难题,在工作中他们产生过身份认同的迷茫。他们的身份认同是在国家意志与自身职业诉求的张力中共同塑造的,体现了基层文化工作者对国家意志的应对与调适。探究这一时期放映员群体在工作实践中的职业困境与身份认同,可以展现出“小人物”在国家意识形态延伸过程中的复杂历程。

论“十七年”时期电影明星生成机制与身体政治——以上官云珠入选“22大明星”为中心

“十七年”时期,“22大明星”在政治实践、明星表演、观众参与等多重机制的作用下诞生,这些机制复杂而多面,暗合着不同程度的悖论。上官云珠通过对自己银幕内外的身体规训,完成了对这些悖论的意识形态缝合,最终得以成为代表新中国文艺工作者形象的“22大明星”中的一员。以上官云珠入选“22大明星”为中心,可一窥“十七年”时期电影文化的特殊面貌。

从个人与历史的辩证关系再论“十七年文学”--以《红旗谱》《创业史》《青春之歌》为中心

长期以来,学界对“十七年文学”现象褒贬不一。有学者认为“十七年文学”对中国现代文学的建构意义不大,没有再谈论的价值;有学者则认为这一时期的文学是“一场反抗西方的现代性文学实验”,有再批评的空间。长期思维受限,导致“十七年文学”的“文学性”与“意识形态性”相分离,使得整个时期的文学近乎被学界否定。然而,或许正是因为意识形态的介入,个体对于民族国家想象的增强,才使得这一时期的文学获得更为丰富的“国族”叙事,进而从中获得“文学性”的表征。本文将从个体和历史的关系论出发,对“十七年文学”进行解读,力求发现这一时期的文学创作倾向,并给予新的体认与阐释。

“十七年”时期化妆护肤品类包装设计及其成因研究

“十七年”是新中国成立之后较为特殊的一段历史时期,新旧社会转型背景下国家的政治、经济、文化、思想皆处于重建探索,包装作为国计民生的晴雨表,在特殊时代的影响之下具有特殊的表现内涵,同时包装设计的演变与国家的发展和文化的变迁有关。本文以“十七年”时期的化妆护肤品包装为例,从品类转向、材质更新、视觉变化等方面探究新中国成立初期我国包装设计的早期发展,并分析在物质形式单一的经济条件下,包装如何通过多样的视觉表达来形塑特定时期的社会功能与情感功效,为现代包装的形式塑造与价值传递提供借鉴范式。

中央和地方“十四五”应急管理政策规划文本量化研究——基于“X-Y-Z”三维政策工具分析框架

发展应急管理事业是人民生命、财产安全及身体健康的重要保障。“十四五”时期,党中央和各地方陆续颁布一系列应急管理政策规划,以期推进应急管理事业发展。采用内容分析法,对国务院以及北京、天津、河北、山西、内蒙古等28个省份颁布的29份应急管理政策规划文本进行分析,构建政策工具(X轴)-政策目标(Y轴)-政策主题特征(Z轴)三维分析框架;在此基础上,对政策文本中的具体政策条文进行编码加以量化分析,并运用ROSTCM6计量分析软件对政策文本主题词进行分析。研究发现,在中央和地方“十四五”应急管理政策规划文本中,环境型政策工具的使用最充足,而需求型政策工具使用不足;不同政策目标对应的政策条文数量差异较大;政策工具、政策目标和政策主题特征三维度之间存在较强联系。最后指出,坚定“预防为主”理念,协调政策工具箱合力等是推动应急管理事业发展的重要策略。

十七年小说中的“革命引路人”——以《红豆》《青春之歌》《红旗谱》为例

十七年小说在特定的时代背景影响下展现出鲜明的政治工具属性,由此小说中的情节结构、人物形象便相对稳定模板化。其中“革命引路人”这一人物形象因其在特定情节模式中不可缺少,而在革命历史叙事中留下了浓墨重彩的一笔。在《红豆》《红旗谱》以及《青春之歌》中“革命引路人”以正面鼓励型和以身践行型两种类型出现。尽管“引路人”由于身份和环境的不同会产生些许差异,但其共有的“引路”属性仍不容忽视。“革命引路人”还承担着解救、完成任务、身份转换三种叙事功能,对丰富当代文学人物画廊和传承红色文化有着无可比拟的重要意义。