PSYCHIATRISTS DISAGREE profoundly with lawyers,about what we human beings are capable of.The one says we have‘intent’—the other that we do not.They cannot both be right.All non-psychiatrist doctors must perforce ag...PSYCHIATRISTS DISAGREE profoundly with lawyers,about what we human beings are capable of.The one says we have‘intent’—the other that we do not.They cannot both be right.All non-psychiatrist doctors must perforce agree with the lawyers.This paper argues that these harmful discrepancies will continue,until we undo the separate watertight human knowledge silos,which have grown up between legal procedures,general medicine,and psychiatric practice.All three would benefit.Psychiatry in particular,suffers from a grievously narrow view of scientific evidence,one which is open to fundamental criticism.There are radical differences in how the fuzzy concept of‘intent’is regarded in law,in general clinical medicine and in psychiatry.Once‘intent’is accorded its due weight,our understanding of justice,health and sanity is vastly improved,allowing us hugely more optimism.This paper is based on two earlier papers—The Scientific Evidence That‘Intent’Is Vital for Healthcare and Why Quakerism Is More Scientific Than Einstein.These are deployed here,to unpick the unhealthy tangle in which today’s psychiatry now finds itself.Its six sections are—(1)why‘intent’matters in law,in medicine&in psychiatry;(2)scientific quagmires;(3)a working definition for‘madness’;(4)“children are impressionable”;(5)“trust me,I’m a doctor”;and(6)skin heals,why can’t minds?The breakthrough is that verbal fuzziness means that words can mean different things at different times––not that they are 100%meaningless.Only a better understanding of trust,autonomy and consent can open the way to something that is painfully absent from today’s psychiatry––a cure for any and all mental disease.展开更多
The ＂overissuance of currency＂ statement has been prevalent in China＇s economics and finance sector for many years, but it is an unscientific argument. Its theoretical basis is that GDP corresponds to currency issu...The ＂overissuance of currency＂ statement has been prevalent in China＇s economics and finance sector for many years, but it is an unscientific argument. Its theoretical basis is that GDP corresponds to currency issued by the central bank but overlooks the fact that what money in circulation really corresponds to is the aggregate price of traded goods （including commodities, labor and financial products）. It also overlooks how fast money is circulated and the production and operation costs incorporated in commodities. Practically, this statement ignores the fact that the remainder of M2-MO in China is made up of various deposits whose direct function is substantially d^fferent Jbom that of currency. The underlying reason for China＇s huge sum of various deposits in M2 is that the proportion of consumption in GDP is decreasing and the investment rate is lower than the savings rate. It is natural for the M2 money supply to outnumber GDP in China. In essence, China＇s CPI growth is the result of price spikes rather than inflation. Accordingly, the major solution should be a combination offinancial policies and administrative measures rather than monetary policies.展开更多
There is a current debate about the extent to which Academic Freedom should be permitted in our universities.On the one hand,we have traditionalists who maintain that Academic Freedom should be unrestricted:people who...There is a current debate about the extent to which Academic Freedom should be permitted in our universities.On the one hand,we have traditionalists who maintain that Academic Freedom should be unrestricted:people who have the appropriate qualifications and accomplishments should be allowed to develop theories about how the world is,or ought to be,as they see fit.On the other hand,we have post-traditional philosophers who argue against this degree of Academic Freedom.I consider a conservative version of post-traditional philosophy that permits restrictions on Academic Freedom only if the following conditions are met,Condition 1:The dissemination of the results of a given research project R must cause significant harm to some people,especially to people from oppressed groups.Condition 2:Condition 1 must possess strong empirical support,and which accepts the following assumptions:(1)there is a world of objective facts that is,in principle,discoverable,(2)rational means are the means of discovering it and,(3)rational means requires strong empirical support.I define strong empirical support for an hypothesis h on evidence e in probabilistic terms,as a ratio of posterior to prior probabilities substantially exceeding 1.I now argue in favour of a research policy that accepts unrestricted Academic Freedom.My argument is that there is a formal and general quandary that arises within the standard theory of probability when we apply this account of empirical support to a set of possible causal hypotheses framed in such a way that the“reverse probabilities”,pr(e/h)are 1.I consider various possible ways to escape this quandary,none of which are without difficulties,concluding that a research policy allowing for unrestricted Academic Freedom is probably the best that we can hope for.展开更多
为研究设备可用度对列车控制中心(TCC,Train Control Center)的影响和预测TCC的剩余使用寿命(RUL,Remaining Useful Life),降低TCC的故障发生率,确保车辆安全运行,构建TCC动态故障树模型。通过引入Markov理论,将其转化为Markov模型,设计...为研究设备可用度对列车控制中心(TCC,Train Control Center)的影响和预测TCC的剩余使用寿命(RUL,Remaining Useful Life),降低TCC的故障发生率,确保车辆安全运行,构建TCC动态故障树模型。通过引入Markov理论,将其转化为Markov模型,设计了TCC可用度评估与RUL预测方法;考虑了TCC的失效率和共因失效,利用D-S(Dempster-Shafer)证据理论对失效数据作数据融合处理,得到TCC设备初始故障区间概率;在此基础上,采用超椭球模型约束设备初始故障区间概率,得到更加精确的底事件故障区间概率;画出Markov状态转移图,用矩阵推导出TCC可用度和RUL的函数关系式,且对可用度的计算还考虑了维修因素。以兰州—乌鲁木齐客运专线某TCC数据作为分析案例,用该方法计算TCC及其各设备的可用度,并预测TCC的RUL。结果表明:与通用方法相比,评估结果相同,但评估信息更丰富。展开更多
The East African Rift extending across Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya is characterized by low level of economic development,high level of poverty,increasing population,scarce natural resources(land,water, and environmen...The East African Rift extending across Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya is characterized by low level of economic development,high level of poverty,increasing population,scarce natural resources(land,water, and environment),complex and rich ecosystems, increasing desertification and degrading biodiversity, underdeveloped regional trade and market,water resources mainly stored in groundwater and展开更多
The ongoing pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 has spread rapidly to all countries of the world.Africa is particularly predisposed to an escalation of the pandemic and its negative impact given its weak economy ...The ongoing pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 has spread rapidly to all countries of the world.Africa is particularly predisposed to an escalation of the pandemic and its negative impact given its weak economy and health systems.In addition,inadequate access to the social determinants of health such as water and sanitation and socio-cultural attributes may constrain the implementation of critical preventive measures such as hand washing and social distancing on the continent.Given these facts,the continent needs to focus on targeted and high impact prevention and control strategies and interventions which could break the chain of transmission quickly.We conclude that the available body of scientific evidence on the coronavirus disease 2019 holds the key to the development of such strategies and interventions.Going forward,we recommend that the African research community should scale up research to provide scientific evidence for a better characterization of the epidemiology,transmission dynamics,prevention and control of the virus on the continent.展开更多
The critical examination of scientific evidence is crucial in attempting to distinguish genuine science from“junk science”and provides judges with an important basis upon which to determine the credibility of expert...The critical examination of scientific evidence is crucial in attempting to distinguish genuine science from“junk science”and provides judges with an important basis upon which to determine the credibility of expert witnesses giving scientific evidence.From studying the law in the USA,we learn that the process for examining scientific evidence in court is based upon full discovery of the proposed evidence before trial and the availability of expert witnesses at trial to testify orally and be examined and cross‑examined.Empirical studies suggest that the opportunities to critically examine scientific evidence in Chinese courts are not so freely available.Discovery is neglected,thus limiting the effectiveness of cross‑examination,and current rules do not encourage oral testimony or effective cross‑examination.To solve these problems,the disclosure duty should be put on the prosecution,rather than on the defendant.Scientific evidence should be discovered.Disclosure must include the basis,process,material relied upon,and methods of forensic appraisals.In the trial process,the prosecution has transferred the case file to court,where the defendant will be able to copy the scientific evidence.The neutrality of expert assistants established by article 192 of the new Criminal Procedural Law should be strengthened.展开更多
文摘PSYCHIATRISTS DISAGREE profoundly with lawyers,about what we human beings are capable of.The one says we have‘intent’—the other that we do not.They cannot both be right.All non-psychiatrist doctors must perforce agree with the lawyers.This paper argues that these harmful discrepancies will continue,until we undo the separate watertight human knowledge silos,which have grown up between legal procedures,general medicine,and psychiatric practice.All three would benefit.Psychiatry in particular,suffers from a grievously narrow view of scientific evidence,one which is open to fundamental criticism.There are radical differences in how the fuzzy concept of‘intent’is regarded in law,in general clinical medicine and in psychiatry.Once‘intent’is accorded its due weight,our understanding of justice,health and sanity is vastly improved,allowing us hugely more optimism.This paper is based on two earlier papers—The Scientific Evidence That‘Intent’Is Vital for Healthcare and Why Quakerism Is More Scientific Than Einstein.These are deployed here,to unpick the unhealthy tangle in which today’s psychiatry now finds itself.Its six sections are—(1)why‘intent’matters in law,in medicine&in psychiatry;(2)scientific quagmires;(3)a working definition for‘madness’;(4)“children are impressionable”;(5)“trust me,I’m a doctor”;and(6)skin heals,why can’t minds?The breakthrough is that verbal fuzziness means that words can mean different things at different times––not that they are 100%meaningless.Only a better understanding of trust,autonomy and consent can open the way to something that is painfully absent from today’s psychiatry––a cure for any and all mental disease.
文摘The ＂overissuance of currency＂ statement has been prevalent in China＇s economics and finance sector for many years, but it is an unscientific argument. Its theoretical basis is that GDP corresponds to currency issued by the central bank but overlooks the fact that what money in circulation really corresponds to is the aggregate price of traded goods （including commodities, labor and financial products）. It also overlooks how fast money is circulated and the production and operation costs incorporated in commodities. Practically, this statement ignores the fact that the remainder of M2-MO in China is made up of various deposits whose direct function is substantially d^fferent Jbom that of currency. The underlying reason for China＇s huge sum of various deposits in M2 is that the proportion of consumption in GDP is decreasing and the investment rate is lower than the savings rate. It is natural for the M2 money supply to outnumber GDP in China. In essence, China＇s CPI growth is the result of price spikes rather than inflation. Accordingly, the major solution should be a combination offinancial policies and administrative measures rather than monetary policies.
文摘There is a current debate about the extent to which Academic Freedom should be permitted in our universities.On the one hand,we have traditionalists who maintain that Academic Freedom should be unrestricted:people who have the appropriate qualifications and accomplishments should be allowed to develop theories about how the world is,or ought to be,as they see fit.On the other hand,we have post-traditional philosophers who argue against this degree of Academic Freedom.I consider a conservative version of post-traditional philosophy that permits restrictions on Academic Freedom only if the following conditions are met,Condition 1:The dissemination of the results of a given research project R must cause significant harm to some people,especially to people from oppressed groups.Condition 2:Condition 1 must possess strong empirical support,and which accepts the following assumptions:(1)there is a world of objective facts that is,in principle,discoverable,(2)rational means are the means of discovering it and,(3)rational means requires strong empirical support.I define strong empirical support for an hypothesis h on evidence e in probabilistic terms,as a ratio of posterior to prior probabilities substantially exceeding 1.I now argue in favour of a research policy that accepts unrestricted Academic Freedom.My argument is that there is a formal and general quandary that arises within the standard theory of probability when we apply this account of empirical support to a set of possible causal hypotheses framed in such a way that the“reverse probabilities”,pr(e/h)are 1.I consider various possible ways to escape this quandary,none of which are without difficulties,concluding that a research policy allowing for unrestricted Academic Freedom is probably the best that we can hope for.
文摘为研究设备可用度对列车控制中心(TCC,Train Control Center)的影响和预测TCC的剩余使用寿命(RUL,Remaining Useful Life),降低TCC的故障发生率,确保车辆安全运行,构建TCC动态故障树模型。通过引入Markov理论,将其转化为Markov模型,设计了TCC可用度评估与RUL预测方法;考虑了TCC的失效率和共因失效,利用D-S(Dempster-Shafer)证据理论对失效数据作数据融合处理,得到TCC设备初始故障区间概率;在此基础上,采用超椭球模型约束设备初始故障区间概率,得到更加精确的底事件故障区间概率;画出Markov状态转移图,用矩阵推导出TCC可用度和RUL的函数关系式,且对可用度的计算还考虑了维修因素。以兰州—乌鲁木齐客运专线某TCC数据作为分析案例,用该方法计算TCC及其各设备的可用度,并预测TCC的RUL。结果表明:与通用方法相比,评估结果相同,但评估信息更丰富。
文摘The East African Rift extending across Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya is characterized by low level of economic development,high level of poverty,increasing population,scarce natural resources(land,water, and environment),complex and rich ecosystems, increasing desertification and degrading biodiversity, underdeveloped regional trade and market,water resources mainly stored in groundwater and
文摘The ongoing pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 has spread rapidly to all countries of the world.Africa is particularly predisposed to an escalation of the pandemic and its negative impact given its weak economy and health systems.In addition,inadequate access to the social determinants of health such as water and sanitation and socio-cultural attributes may constrain the implementation of critical preventive measures such as hand washing and social distancing on the continent.Given these facts,the continent needs to focus on targeted and high impact prevention and control strategies and interventions which could break the chain of transmission quickly.We conclude that the available body of scientific evidence on the coronavirus disease 2019 holds the key to the development of such strategies and interventions.Going forward,we recommend that the African research community should scale up research to provide scientific evidence for a better characterization of the epidemiology,transmission dynamics,prevention and control of the virus on the continent.
基金Research funds project of Ministry of Justice P.R.C(Grant No.14SFB30019)China Post Doctor Science Research Funds Special Aid Project(Grant No.2015T80420)ECUPL science research funds project(Grant No.A‑3101‑14‑144512).
文摘The critical examination of scientific evidence is crucial in attempting to distinguish genuine science from“junk science”and provides judges with an important basis upon which to determine the credibility of expert witnesses giving scientific evidence.From studying the law in the USA,we learn that the process for examining scientific evidence in court is based upon full discovery of the proposed evidence before trial and the availability of expert witnesses at trial to testify orally and be examined and cross‑examined.Empirical studies suggest that the opportunities to critically examine scientific evidence in Chinese courts are not so freely available.Discovery is neglected,thus limiting the effectiveness of cross‑examination,and current rules do not encourage oral testimony or effective cross‑examination.To solve these problems,the disclosure duty should be put on the prosecution,rather than on the defendant.Scientific evidence should be discovered.Disclosure must include the basis,process,material relied upon,and methods of forensic appraisals.In the trial process,the prosecution has transferred the case file to court,where the defendant will be able to copy the scientific evidence.The neutrality of expert assistants established by article 192 of the new Criminal Procedural Law should be strengthened.
