Anthropogenic Influence on Decadal Changes in Concurrent Hot and Dry Events over China around the Mid-1990s

The frequency and duration of observed concurrent hot and dry events(HDEs) over China during the growing season(April–September) exhibit significant decadal changes across the mid-1990s. These changes are characterized by increases in HDE frequency and duration over most of China, with relatively large increases over southeastern China(SEC), northern China(NC), and northeastern China(NEC). The frequency of HDEs averaged over China in the present day(PD,1994–2011) is double that in the early period(EP, 1964–81);the duration of HDEs increases by 60%. Climate experiments with the Met Office Unified Model(MetUM-GOML2) are used to estimate the contributions of anthropogenic forcing to HDE decadal changes over China. Anthropogenic forcing changes can explain 60%–70% of the observed decadal changes,suggesting an important anthropogenic influence on HDE changes over China across the mid-1990s. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the increase in greenhouse gas(GHG) concentrations dominates the simulated decadal changes,increasing the frequency and duration of HDEs throughout China. The change in anthropogenic aerosol(AA) emissions significantly decreases the frequency and duration of HDEs over SEC and NC, but the magnitude of the decrease is much smaller than the increase induced by GHGs. The changes in HDEs in response to anthropogenic forcing are mainly due to the response of climatological mean surface air temperatures. The contributions from changes in variability and changes in climatological mean soil moisture and evapotranspiration are relatively small. The physical processes associated with the response of HDEs to GHG and AA changes are also revealed.

The Role of Underlying Boundary Forcing in Shaping the Recent Decadal Change of Persistent Anomalous Activity over the Ural Mountains

Observational analyses demonstrate that the Ural persistent positive height anomaly event(PAE) experienced a decadal increase around the year 2000, exhibiting a southward displacement afterward. These decadal variations are related to a large-scale circulation shift over the Eurasian Continent. The effects of underlying sea ice and sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies on the Ural PAE and the related atmospheric circulation were explored by Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP) experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and by sensitivity experiments using the Atmospheric General Circulation Model(AGCM). The AMIP experiment results suggest that the underlying sea ice and SST anomalies play important roles. The individual contributions of sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas and the SST anomalies linked to the phase transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) are further investigated by AGCM sensitivity experiments isolating the respective forcings.The sea ice decline in Barents-Kara Seas triggers an atmospheric wave train over the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes with positive anomalies over the Urals, favoring the occurrence of Ural PAEs. The shift in the PDO to its negative phase triggers a wave train propagating downstream from the North Pacific. One positive anomaly lobe of the wave train is located over the Ural Mountains and increases the PAE there. The negative-to-positive transition of the AMO phase since the late-1990s causes positive 500-h Pa height anomalies south of the Ural Mountains, which promote a southward shift of Ural PAE.

Decadence and Mass Culture： The Novel as a Panorama. The Case of Bruges-La-Morte

Today＇s idea of the so-called fin-de-sibcle is still somewhat inexact and incomplete. This lack of precision originates from a deeply rooted methodological approach which consists of considering the respective developments of literature, art, and science in isolation, without paying attention to any interference or reciprocal contamination. This defective method also affects the overlaps and contacts between high culture and popular culture. Despite the progress made over recent years, there are few researchers who approach their objective with a real awareness of the complexity of a time period which saw the appearance of mass culture in the current sense and an unprecedented boom in scientific and technological development.1 To this end, the example of the great German philosopher Walter Benjamin and his studies on Paris during the 19th century----collected in the essays on the great French poet Charles Baudelaire and especially in the monumental and unfinished work The Arcades Project--is, without doubt, a model to follow. Taking the path suggested by Benjamin, this article sets out a revision of the novel Bruges-la-Morte （1892） by the Belgian writer Georges Rodenbach, considered one of the major exponents of thefin-de-sikcle decadence, which goes beyond the usual approach of a symbolist reading, by paying special attention to the frictions between literature and technology on one hand, and between literature and popular entertainment on the other.

Vomunt ut Edant,Edunt ut Vomant:Petronius’Satyricon and Features of Decadence and Victimhood in Sigalit Landau’s Installation“The Dining Hall”

Sigalit Landau is an international sculpture,video,installation,and performance artist,born in Jerusalem,and raised also in the USA and the UK.The infernal main space in her installation“The Dining Hall”(2007,KW Institute for Contemporary Art,Berlin)is filled with images resembling human remains engaged in riotous consumption from huge iron pots,in physical circus-like tricks,and copulation,surrounded by huge fleshy-like constructions.While the immediate association may be that of an apocalyptic catastrophe in relation to the Holocaust,the reference is multifaceted,as this study seeks to show.There is a strong connotation of corporeality,gluttony,digestion,decay,and abjection combined with licentiousness,and a proximity between death and pleasure.This multiplicity of contexts is embedded in the term décadence,in its connection with Antiquity and mostly with ancient Rome,and calls to mind the Roman Menippean 1st century CE text Satyricon by Petronius.A comparative analysis of Landau’s installation in relation to Satyricon opens up the way to a broad interpretation,revealing much topical and conceptual parallelism that reveals Landau’s engagement with a kind of decadence typical to the contemporary condition and that of Israel in particular.A prominent feature of her installation is that of victimhood and its influence on the Israeli occupation policy and conduct.Consequently,Landau’s installation is interpreted here as an allegory of a particular state of mind,reflecting both decadence and victimhood.

Decadal Changes in Dry and Wet Heatwaves in Eastern China:Spatial Patterns and Risk Assessment

Under global warming,understanding the long-term variation in different types of heatwaves is vital for China’s preparedness against escalating heat stress.This study investigates dry and wet heatwave shifts in eastern China over recent decades.Spatial trend analysis displays pronounced warming in inland midlatitudes and the Yangtze River Valley,with increased humidity in coastal regions.EOF results indicate intensifying dry heatwaves in northern China,while the Yangtze River Valley sees more frequent dry heatwaves.On the other hand,Indochina and regions north of 25°N also experience intensified wet heatwaves,corresponding to regional humidity increases.Composite analysis is conducted based on different situations:strong,frequent dry or wet heatwaves.Strong dry heatwaves are influenced by anticyclonic circulations over northern China,accompanied by warming SST anomalies around the coastal midlatitudes of the western North Pacific(WNP).Frequent dry heatwaves are related to strong subsidence along with a strengthened subtropical high over the WNP.Strong and frequent wet heatwaves show an intensified Okhotsk high at higher latitudes in the lower troposphere,and a negative circumglobal teleconnection wave train pattern in the upper troposphere.Decaying El Niño SST patterns are observed in two kinds of wet heatwave and frequent dry heatwave years.Risk analysis indicates that El Niño events heighten the likelihood of these heatwaves in regions most at risk.As global warming continues,adapting and implementing mitigation strategies toward extreme heatwaves becomes crucial,especially for the aforementioned regions under significant heat stress.

Decadal prediction skill for Eurasian surface air temperature in CMIP6 models

评估CMIP6年代际预测试验对季节平均SAT的预测技巧的结果表明:模式不能有效预测冬季和秋季SAT的年代际变率.IPSL-CM6A-LR和多模式集合平均对于春季SAT展现了预测技巧,其中对于变率的预测技巧好于振幅的结果.基于蒙古和我国华北地区的显著预测技巧,模式对于夏季SAT表现出最佳的预测水平.与外部强迫相比,模式对于SAT的预测技巧可能来自初始化.模式中的一个明显系统性误差值得注意,即模式中冬季SAT的变率可以持续到其他季节,而在观测中其他季节的SAT变化与冬季SAT相对独立.

Progress and future prospects of decadal prediction and data assimilation:A review

年代际预测,也称为“近期气候预测”,旨在预测未来1-10年内的气候变化,是气候预测和气候变化研究领域的一个新关注点.它位于季节至年际预测和长期气候变化预测之间,结合了初值问题和外部强迫问题的两个方面.年代际预测的核心技术在于用于模式初始化的同化方法的准确性和效率,其目标是为模式提供准确的初始条件,其中包含观测到的气候系统内部变率,年代际预测的初始化通常涉及在耦合框架内同化海洋观测,其中观测到的信号通过耦合过程传递到其他分量,如大气和海冰.然而,最近的研究越来越关注在海洋-大气耦合模式中探索耦合数据同化(CDA),有人认为CDA有潜力显著提高年代际预测技巧.本文综合评述了该领域的三个方面的研究现状:初始化方法,年代际气候预测的可预测性和预测技巧,以及年代际预测的未来发展和挑战.

An Interpretation of Brick＇s Decadence in Cat on a Hot Tin Roof from the Perspective of Trauma Theory

Tennessee Williams is one of the most prominent American dramastists in the twentieth century.Cat on a Hot Tin Roof is his another masterpiece,which won the Pulitzer Prize for Drama in 1955.In the play,the protagonist Brick suffers from unbearable psychological traumas,which inevitably results in his decadence.With the analysis of Brick’s decadence from the perspective of the familial trauma,emotional trauma and social trauma,readers will not only gain insights into the unpleasant relationships among family members,but also have a comprehensive understanding of the loneliness and alienation among the individuals in society.

Influence of Continental Atmospheric Forcing on the Decadal Variability of the West African Monsoon

The West African Monsoon (WAM) is characterized by strong decadal and multi-decadal variability and the impacts can be catastrophic for the local populations. One of the factors put forward to explain this variability involves the role of atmospheric dynamics, linked in particular to the Saharan Heat Low (SHL). This article addresses this question by comparing the sets of preindustrial control and historical simulation data from climate models carried out in the framework of the CMIP5 project and observations data over the 20th century. Through multivariate statistical analyses, it was established that decadal modes of ocean variability and decadal variability of Saharan atmospheric dynamics significantly influence decadal variability of monsoon precipitation. These results also suggest the existence of external anthropogenic forcing, which is superimposed on the decadal natural variability inducing an intensification of the signal in the historical simulations compared to preindustrial control simulations. We have also shown that decadal rainfall variability in the Sahel, once the influence of oceanic modes has been eliminated, appears to be driven mainly by the activity of the Arabian Heat Low (AHL) in the central Sahel, and by the structure of the meridional temperature gradient over the inter-tropical Atlantic in the western Sahel.

Interannual and Decadal Changes in Tropospheric Ozone in China and the Associated Chemistry–Climate Interactions: A Review

China has been experiencing widespread air pollution due to rapid industrialization and urbanization in recent decades.The two major concerns of ambient air quality in China are particulate matter(PM)and tropospheric ozone(O3).With the implementation of air pollution prevention and control actions in the last five years,the PM pollution in China has been substantially reduced.In contrast,under the conditions of the urban air pollution complex,the elevated O3 levels in city clusters of eastern China,especially in warm seasons,have drawn increasing attention.Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors not only contribute to regional air quality,but also alter climate.Climate change in turn can change chemical processes,long-range transport,and local meteorology that influence air pollution.Compared to PM,less is known about O3 pollution and its climate effects over China.Here,we present a review of the main findings from the literature over the period 2011-18 with regard to the characteristics of O3 concentrations in China and the mechanisms that drive its interannual to decadal variations,aiming to identify robust conclusions that may guide decision-making for emissions control and to highlight critical knowledge gaps.We also review regional and global modeling studies that have investigated the impacts of tropospheric O3 on climate,as well as the projections of future tropospheric O3 owing to climate and/or emission changes.

The Decadal Variation of Afro-Asian Summer Monsoon and Precipitation

By dint of grid information from 1948 to 2007,the summer monsoon in Afro-Asian area and the precipitation in corresponding atmosphere circulation situation during the strong and weak Afro-Asian monsoon period are studied.The results suggest that the strong or weak Afro-Asian monsoon has pretty good corresponding relation with summer precipitation in Afro-Asian area.When summer monsoon weakens year after year,precipitation also decreases every year.

Relationship between ENSO and Winter Rainfall over Southeast China and Its Decadal Variability

In this study, the relationship between El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） and winter rainfall over Southeast China （SC） is demonstrated based on instrumental and reanalysis data. The results show that ENSO and SC winter rainfall （ENSO-SC rainfall） are highly correlated and intimately coupled through an anomalous high pressure over the northwestern Pacific. In mature phase, El Nifio （La Nina） events can cause more （less） rainfall over SC in winter. Due to the persistence and spring barrier of ENSO, SC winter rainfall has potential predictability of about half a year ahead with ENSO as a predictor.

Joint Propagating Patterns of SST and SLP Anomalies in the North Pacific on Bidecadal and Pentadecadal Timescales

Wavelet analyses are applied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index and North Pacific index for the period 1900-2000, which identifies two dominant interdecadal components, the bidecadal (15-25-yr) and pentadecadal (50 70-yr) modes. Joint propagating patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the North Pacific for the two modes are revealed by using the techniques of multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) and linear regression analysis with the global sea surface temperature (GISST) data and the northern hemispheric SLP data for the common period 1903 1998. Significant differences in spatio-temporal structures are found between the two modes. For the bidecadal mode, SST anomalies originating from the Gulf of Alaska appear to slowly spread southwestward, inducing a reversal of early SST anomalies in the central North Pacific. Due to further westward spreading, the SST variation of the central North Pacific leads that of the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region by approximately 4 to 5 years. Concomitantly, SLP anomalies spread over most parts of the North Pacific during the mature phase and then change into an NPO(North Pacific Oscillation)-like pattern during the transition phase. For the pentadecadal mode, SST anomalies develop in the southeast tropical Pacific and propagate along the North American coast to the mid-latitudes; meanwhile, SST anomalies with the same polarity in the western tropical Pacific expand northward to Kuroshio and its extension region; both merge into the central North Pacific reversing the sign of early SST anomalies there. Accompanying SLP anomalies are characterized by an NPO-like pattern during the mature phase while they are dominant over the North Pacific during the transitional phase. The bidecadal and pentadecadal modes have different propagating patterns, suggesting that the two interdecadal modes may arise from different physical mechanisms.

ENSO Frequency Asymmetry and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in Observations and 19 CMIP5 Models

Using observational data and the pre-industrial simulations of 19 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5（CMIP5）, the El Ni o（EN） and La Ni a（LN） events in positive and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation（PDO） phases are examined. In the observational data, with EN（LN） events the positive（negative） SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific is much stronger in positive（negative） PDO phases than in negative（positive） phases. Meanwhile,the models cannot reasonably reproduce this difference. Besides, the modulation of ENSO frequency asymmetry by the PDO is explored. Results show that, in the observational data, EN is 300% more（58% less） frequent than LN in positive（negative）PDO phases, which is significant at the 99% confidence level using the Monte Carlo test. Most of the CMIP5 models exhibit results that are consistent with the observational data.

Linkage Between Mei-yu Precipitation and North Atlantic SST on the Decadal Timescale

This paper investigates the relationship between mei-yu and North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTA）. Results show that they are significantly associated with each other on the decadal timescale. Both mei-yu precipitation and mei-yu duration are characterized by significant decadal variability. Their decadal components are closely correlated with a triple mode of North Atlantic SSTA in the preceding winter. Regression analysis demonstrates that the wintertime North Atlantic SSTA may impose a delayed impact on East Asia Summer Monsoon （EASM） circulation and mei-yu on the decadal timescale. The persistency of SSTA plays an important role during this course. The triple SSTA mode can persist from winter until late spring. It is suggested that the springtime SSTA may excite a stationary wave-train propagating from west Eurasia to East Asia and exert an impact on mei-yu.

A Decadal Shift of Summer Surface Air Temperature over Northeast Asia around the Mid-1990s

This study identifies a decadal shift of summer surface air temperature （SAT） over Northeast Asia,including southeastern parts of Russia,Mongolia and northern China,around the mid-1990s.The results suggest that the SAT over the Northeast Asia experienced a significant warming after 1994 relative to that before 1993.This decadal shift also extends to northern China,and leads to a warmer summer over Northeast China and North China after the mid-1990s.The decadal warming over Northeast Asia is found to concur with the enhancement of South China rainfall around the mid-1990s.On the one hand,both the Northeast Asian SAT and South China rainfall exhibit this mid-1990s decadal shift only in summer,but not in other seasons.On the other hand,both the Northeast Asian SAT and South China rainfall exhibit this mid-1990s decadal shift not only in the summer seasonal mean,but also in each month of summer （June,July and August）.Furthermore,the decadal warming is found to result from an anticyclonic anomaly over Northeast Asia,which can be interpreted as the response to the increased precipitation over South China,according to previous numerical results.Thus,we conclude that the warming shift of summer Northeast Asian SAT around the mid-1990s was a remote response to the increased precipitation over South China.

Interannual and Decadal Variations of Snow Cover overQinghai-Xizang Plateau and Their Relationships to Summer Monsoon Rainfall in China

Interannual and decadal variations of winter snow cover over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) are analyzed by using monthly mean snow depth data set of 60 stations over QXP for the period of 1958 through 1992. It is found that the winter snow cover over QXP bears a pronounced quasi-biennial oscillation, and it underwent an obvious decadal transition from a poor snow cover period to a rich snow cover period in the late 1970’s during the last 40 years. It is shown that the summer rainfall in the eastern China is closely associated with the winter snow cov-er over QXP not only in the interannual variation but also in the decadal variation. A clear relationship ex-ists in the quasi-biennial oscillation between the summer rainfall in the northern part of North China and the southern China and the winter snow cover over QXP. Furthermore, the summer rainfall in the four cli-mate divisions of Qinling-Daba Mountains, the Yangtze-Huaihe River Plain, the upper and lower reaches of the Yangtze River showed a remarkable transition from drought period to rainy period in the end of 1970’s, in good correspondence with the decadal transition of the winter snow cover over QXP. Key words Snow cover over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau - Summer monsoon rainfall in China - Interannual and decadal variations This study was supported by the National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences (G 1998040900 Part I).

Probabilistic Multimodel Ensemble Prediction of Decadal Variability of East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on IPCC-AR5 Near-term Climate Simulations

Based on near-term climate simulations for IPCC-AR5 （The Fifth Assessment Report）, probabilistic multimodel ensemble prediction （PMME） of decadal variability of surface air temperature in East Asia （20°-50°N, 100°- 145°E） was conducted using the multivariate Gaussian ensemble kernel dressing （GED） methodology. The ensemble system exhibited high performance in hindcasting the deeadal （1981-2010） mean and trend of temperature anomalies with respect to 1961-90, with a RPS of 0.94 and 0.88 respectively. The interpretation of PMME for future decades （2006-35） over East Asia was made on the basis of the bivariate probability density of the mean and trend. The results showed that, under the RCP4.5 （Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 W m-2） scenario, the annual mean temperature increases on average by about 1.1-1.2 K and the temperature trend reaches 0.6-0.7 K （30 yr）-1. The pattern for both quantities was found to be that the temperature increase will be less intense in the south. While the temperature increase in terms of the 30-yr mean was found to be virtually certain, the results for the 30-yr trend showed an almost 25% chance of a negative value. This indicated that, using a multimodel ensemble system, even if a longer-term warming exists for 2006-35 over East Asia, the trend for temperature may produce a negative value. Temperature was found to be more affected by seasonal variability, with the increase in temperature over East Asia more intense in autumn （mainly）, faster in summer to the west of 115°E, and faster still in autumn to the east of 115°E.

A Review of Decadal/Interdecadal Climate Variation Studies in China

Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important element in the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) and has received much attention in the world. Many studies in relation to interdecadal variation have also been completed by Chinese scientists in recent years. In this paper, an introduction in outline for interdecadal climate variation research in China is presented. The content includes the features of interdecadal climate variability in China, global warming and interdecadal temperature variability, the NAO (the North Atlantic Oscillation)/NPO (the North Pacific Oscillation) and interdecadal climate variation in China, the interdecadal variation of the East Asian monsoon, the interdecadal mode of SSTA (Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly) in the North Pacific and its climate impact, and abrupt change feature of the climate.

Interdecadal Modulation of the Influence of La Nia Events on Mei-yu Rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley

The aim of this study was to investigate changes in the relationship between mei-yu rainfall over East China and La Nifia events in the late 1970s, a period concurrent with the Pacific climate shift, using meiyu rainfall data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis. This relationship was modulated by the climate shift： Before the 1977/1978 climate shift and after the 1992/1993 climate shift, mei-yu rainfall levels were above normal in most La Nifia years, whereas during the period 1979 1991, mei-yu rainfall was usually below normal levels in La Nifia years. Both composite analyses and results from an atmospheric general circulation model show remarkable detail in terms of La Nifia＇s impacts on mei-yu rainfall in the late 1970s due to the change in the mean climatic state over the tropical Pacific. After the late 1970s, the tropical Pacific SSTs were warmer, and the mean state of low-level anticyclone circulation over the western North Pacific （WNP） weakened. Superimposed on La Nifia-related cyclonic anomaly over the WNP, anticyclonic circulation weakened. Prior to the late 1970s, the mean state of low-level anticyclone circulation over the WNP was stronger and was less affected by La Nifia-related anomalous cyclones. Anticyclone circulation may have brought moisture to the Yangtze River valley, leading to above-normal rainfall.